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The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund seeks to use a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by both market analysis and situational factors that allow adjustments to the forecast. Some of those adjustments can be sizeable and a bet can be triggered as the adjusted prediction falls within the offered spread. Further, it’s not always about the visiting dog, it can be about failure on the home favorite’s part of the equation.
There will be no moneylines in this Fund and the target circle and number of plays will vary each week as the stacking forecast methods will be enhanced by different factors, many of them determined by the ever changing market. The target circle will be much wider than that of the ATS/ML Fund and as always it is expected to be a grind.
The factors and thresholds being used in this fund, while they have been known to be volatile within a season (making it ideal for a Total Return Fund) move, have produced double digit ROI’s over thousands of plays. Some of these factors, over more than a dozen years, have been positive to the forecast enhancement every year. One major factor has shown recent weakness, and over the years that has been followed by major success, every time.
From a numbers perspective, next to Totals, the visiting dogs are where it’s at in college football and we expect big things from the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund.
The first plays in the Fund are…
153 LSU +9.5 (-105) over AUBURN
157 C MICH +14 (-105) over N ILLINOIS
185 TEXAS ST +10.5 (-105) OVER S ALABAMA
193 AKRON +21.5 (-110) over NORTHWESTERN
I have LSU +10 (-105) but didn’t post so I’m going with the current 9.5 and hope it doesn’t land on a 10 point game as that would create a record keeping headache.
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introducing the KVB boring analysis fund
long winded writings that will cure the worst insomniaComment -
Let me make up for it by giving some real analysis. I mentioned that it's not always about the road team but could be about the home team's failure...
Central Michigan +14 over N. Illinois:
The stacking forecast has N. Illinois winning with 27 points to C Mich's 20 points, but the line is 14! You see, Nilly hasn't scored shit in the last two outings. We have ample evidence over years that teams in this situation tend to get overestimated when they become home and favored. It's a situational component that, when factored into the margin of victory, has an effect on an already decent looking forecast. In all fairness, the public gauge shows Northern Illinois winning 28-20, seemingly mitigating the theory, but not the line. The public gauge is looked at but not used in producing the play.
Akron +21.5 over Northwestern:
We have the same situation with Northwestern as bettors may be looking to see their team bounce as well from a rough week. The stacking forecast shows N'Western winning with 38 points to Akron's 16 points but when we factor that situation into the line we see a failure on Northwestern's part here.
The public gauge shows a 27 point game and confirms the theory behind the numbers. Again the public gauge is not used in any way in making the decisions for this Fund. This Fund seeks predictive behaviors, the public gauge is non-predictive.
One caveat here. Before this Fund began there were 4 plays that factored in this situation for the home team; those plays went 3-1. I do not expect bets that are in part arrived using this metric to perform at such a high level. There could some volatility but these bets have a near 60% expectation of winning.
We are exploiting the nature of the bettors when dealing with home teams and favorites here, it's a nature that hasn't changed, perhaps ever.
So, stick that in your insomnia pipe and smoke it.
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Both of these lines seem awfully high and part of me doesn't like those bets, sometimes it's those home blowouts that reinforce the very betting mentality we are in part exploiting.
But this is not a short term Fund, it's not a sprint, this is a grind and a marathon.
At least it's best to treat this type of forecasting as such.
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You're up? I almost texted 45 minutes ago but figured that'd be fukked...lol.
Now it's late.
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yeah lol
was at the shop working
i got something bad ass to send youComment -
yo , i can just input your credentials into my new phone and shoot you messages from there
ipad is charging in other room where ole lady sleepingComment -
btw, you even still up ?Comment -
Still up, sorry, walked away.
Crashing very soon though.
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Lol good one
wonder when DaWanksta! is gonna stop byComment -
cashflow sexting pictures of himself againComment -
"50 fades of Grape"
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Only missing beer cans or bourbon bottles.
i have 1 horizontal 27" 1440p, 1 vertical 24" 1080p, big screen tv ahead to left. monitors are dell ultrasharps. also have a ball jar.
text looks a little small but you can adjust global zoom to 125% in Windows
windows snap (Windows Key + Left Arrow, etc) also helps for working on big monitors like a 42". you don't need to expand a window to full screen, you can snap it to sections of the screen. many people who have big monitors like that are not expanding the window to the whole screen
What kind of Chron is that?Comment -
clutter kushComment -
you little chickenshitsComment -
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wtf, anyone have a guess s to how this ended up turning out ?
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<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="AL17YP5"><a href="//imgur.com/AL17YP5">Not yet available in stores.</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Comment -
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Very Graphic footage of Aaron Hernandez suicide
Watch at your own disrection
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Fukk u other fukkers then
he’ll , half of you are on the mother fukking clock anywaysComment -
At the GIF's and lego man.Comment -
lolComment
