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The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund, like some of the other funds, seeks to exploit the inefficiencies of road underdog market. This is another moneyline basket of bets that uses stacking percentages forecasts along with market analysis to determine if we have enough value in the marketplace to pull the trigger.

The moneylines are slightly larger dog bets and therefore we expect to lose more bets than we win. Sometimes it takes patience to get the win. I expect close to 120 plays and this tracking can be used as a gauge of that market. This is a market function but doesn’t quite look like the UPSET basket because while patience for the win can be true for a season, it’s also true over the longer haul. When this market does get hot, it gets hot.

Early season stacking forecasts should not do as well as when the market matures but just like the UPSET basket, evidence over the years shows the difference isn’t enough to overcome the market analysis of the early season.

Here's the long term chart going back to 2005, like the UPSET Basket function, and notice market drops have always recovered. The bigger drops and recoveries are the broader nature of a Fund that will win about 30% of it's bets bet get paid with a positive expected value for those bets won...

The exciting thing here is that last season was negative units (-7), which has happened only twice by seasons end since the beginning.

What makes it exciting is that last season saw drop of 30 UNITS mid season, 10 of those units were made back by season end.

Here's last year's performance chart in units....

I think we go sideways and upward over the next few seasons and I think it's a good idea to jump into this Fund now.

Of course, we expect big things from the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund but we must remember that this a bigger moneyline Fund and recognize that the odds of each play winning are far less, but we're getting paid what we think is value for that play.

KVB · 09-02-19, 12:19 AM

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 586 plays...

953	1-Sep	CIN +147	-1
962		ARI +151	-1
982		STL +102	-1

		Sun	-3

		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Weeks 11-15	-4.9
		Weeks 16-20	6.19
		Week 21	4.49
		Week 22	0.58
		Mon	-3
		Tue	-0.78
		Wed	-4
		Thu	1.61
		Fri	-1.52
		Sat	0.44

		Total	-6.44

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund through 103 plays...

917	27-Aug	TB +1.5 (-125)	-1
924		SEA +1.5 (+105)	-1
962	28-Aug	SEA +1.5 (+140)	-1
967		TB +1.5 (-105)	-1
915	29-Aug	TB +1.5 (+115)	1.15
968	30-Aug	TOR +1.5 (+120)	-1
979		CHW +1.5 (+100)	-1
920	31-Aug	TOR +1.5 (+100)	1
931		CHW +1.5 (-105)	-1
979	1-Sep	CHW +1.5 (-160)	-1

		Week 23	-5.85

		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Weeks 11-15	4.86
		Weeks 16-20	-4.55
		Week 21	-1.13
		Week 22	3.21

		Total	-12.97

There's a downward trend this season for sure with the RL Fund at it's possible we have a double bottom here...

Going to be interesting with this Fund over the next couple of weeks.

Da Manster! · 09-02-19, 01:18 AM

Originally posted by KVB

It's still the early season and the forecast isn't the greatest but I have OK winning 49-31. I can see why the spread dropped down. I haven't triggered any Houston, but I agree it's generous.

Your 24.5 is just that much better and according to that forecast a sizeable overlay. Good Stuff there, beating the market too.

That forecast is a crazy high Total and was pretty much at the market.

The Totals Fund shows a contrarian adjustment that put that line low enough to cause a trigger at 80 with the info we had in the market...

DiggityDaggityDo · 09-02-19, 09:59 AM

Nick Mullens locker room name is Big Dick Nick.

Anybody got any pics?

Bostongambler · 09-02-19, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Nick Mullens locker room name is Big Dick Nick.

Anybody got any pics?

Diggity, I expect that from Ronald, not you. Tsk tsk tsk

DiggityDaggityDo · 09-02-19, 10:45 AM

BG I just want to know if it s a true nick name.

That's all.

Post the pics, BG.

KVB · 09-02-19, 11:01 AM

Starting to accumulate positions here...

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket picked up...

343	7-Sep	ARKANSAS ST +115
355		N TEXAS +160
357		BYU +145

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund picked up...

361	7-Sep	W KENTUCKY +265
373		ARKANSAS +230
387		CAL +415

You know the explanations, so you know pretty much why these were bought. Let's see how we do against the close.

KVB · 09-02-19, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Nick Mullens locker room name is Big Dick Nick.

Anybody got any pics?

So let me get this straight, you are looking for a pic of Big Dick Nick?

With a name like that maybe there's a flick of Big Dick Nick, maybe it's a chick flick.

DiggityDaggityDo · 09-02-19, 11:14 AM

Is this racist?

KVB · 09-02-19, 11:16 AM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

915

2-Sep

BAL +251

KVB · 09-02-19, 11:20 AM

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

911	2-Sep	TEX +1.5 (+100)
919		TOR +1.5 (+125)

KVB · 09-02-19, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Is this racist?

Funny, I took it as sexual...

KVB · 09-02-19, 11:27 AM

DiggityDaggityDo · 09-02-19, 11:31 AM

KVB · 09-02-19, 01:55 PM

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

409

7-Sep

S ILLINOIS +145

KVB · 09-02-19, 02:03 PM

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has picked up...

423	7-Sep	G WEBB +28 (-120)
425		MAINE +10.5 (-120)
427		NC A&T +29.5 (-120)

Buying some -120's here but these teams that are a favored are already getting too much.

These are openers and we will continue to add to the position.

KVB · 09-02-19, 02:54 PM

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has picked up...

387

7-Sep

CAL +14 (-110)

Like that 14, but 13.5 not a bad look either.

KVB · 09-02-19, 03:38 PM

The NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has added up...

385

7-Sep

STANFORD +3.5 (-115)

KVB · 09-02-19, 04:01 PM

The NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

385

7-Sep

STANFORD +135

KVB · 09-02-19, 04:53 PM

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

401

7-Sep

KENNESAW ST -110

That's right, we are paying for an upset here. It happened a few times last year, though I always waited for low vig, when the bet was more available, and didn't post the -110s. This year will be different.

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund added...

401

7-Sep

KENNESAW ST +1.5 (-120)

So the pick em we are looking at just moved to Kent St. -1.5.

It is the opinion of these two Funds that the line moved the wrong way. These could be volatile and we take a risk of getting killed against the closer.

What was that Doves about hitting the close 50% but some large moves? Can you figure out why it's like that? If you are 50% record, then it's more about those games moving big.

In this case, we could be dealing with light volume and public on Kent that could go south quick. After all, it already ticked towards them.

I'll bite, twice.

KVB · 09-02-19, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund seeks to use a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by both market analysis and situational factors that allow adjustments to the forecast. Some of those adjustments can be sizeable and a bet can be triggered as the adjusted prediction falls within the offered spread. Further, it’s not always about the visiting dog, it can be about failure on the home favorite’s part of the equation....

This is what we saw with the Kennesaw Spread play.

I was expecting Kent St to be overvalued and believe the trade upward supports it.

Sure, that line could go to -3, which is the non predictive public gauge margin of victory, and we could have gotten better value, but with the game this close, including the early season stacking forecast, and Kent shitting the bed against Zona St. in the last outing we have something I've addressed in the past.

Word for word, I said..."We have ample evidence over the years that teams in this situation tend to get overestimated when they become home and favored. It's a situational component that, when factored into the margin of victory, has an effect on an already decent looking forecast."

The books may know this, that hook on the 1.5 is a big selling point when it comes to stacking these percentages and vying out the edge.

Good Luck

stevenash · 09-02-19, 05:13 PM

KVB · 09-02-19, 05:21 PM

I think I can take a breather now, Nasher.

Going to get some food, and drink.

Been in the lab all day.

stevenash · 09-02-19, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I think I can take a breather now, Nasher.

Going to get some food, and drink.

Been in the lab all day.

Go for it.

turtledoves · 09-02-19, 09:04 PM

barely made it to the gas station

seems 2016 was the year of the unders for ncaaf

KVB · 09-03-19, 12:14 AM

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 587 plays...

915	2-Sep	BAL +251	-1

		Mon	-1

		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Weeks 11-15	-4.9
		Weeks 16-20	6.19
		Week 21	4.49
		Week 22	0.58
		Week 23	-10.25

		Total	-7.44

The Fund has lost 4 straight plays and 5 of the last six. While all units are tracked one unit per bet, I have capitalized on the increasing units when the Fund was down about -12 units, around play 400 (a double bottom) and pulled back when we were up around 2 units.

After the non volatile sideways action following the run from the bottom, anyone paying attention could have seen this drop coming.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund through 105 plays...

911	2-Sep	TEX +1.5 (+100)	1
919		TOR +1.5 (+125)	-1

		Week 24	0

		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Weeks 11-15	4.86
		Weeks 16-20	-4.55
		Week 21	-1.13
		Week 22	3.21
		Week 23	-5.85

		Total	-12.97

KVB · 09-03-19, 12:20 AM