When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[Masu485]

then you are not recognizing the reverse line movements properly.. i can tell you 100% have hit in two weeks in the NFL.. in college, though i have not followed it closely, i know 1 lost that i bet...

Robust

in nfl, it's not so bad, i just remember the 49ers not cutting it, and the raiders getting it done, so 1-1, but i'm sure there was at least 1 more i'm forgetting.

but last saturday in college, it was bad, that's what i was talking about, it was around 0-4 or 0-5. (including the missouri, duke, and colorado state loses). i'm hoping that was just a fluke though, as it made good profit last season.

in nhl, i must say it's not doing too well either, BUT i can easily see it coming out with profit in the end due to the heavy number of dogs.

for mlb, didn't get the chance to really track it...

[Masu485]

sorry guys for jumping in late...I was tryin to figure this stuff out. would rutgers +9.5 and Indiana +8 be plays. Looking at numbers like this is like reading a chinese menu. Rutgers opened at +10 and moved to +9.5 while getting 23% of the bets. Pitt got 73% of the bets but the line moved down. Do I sound like I'm making sense here? I just got lost typin this. Sorry guys

Indiana fits the criteria perfectly at this point in time.
A: at least 60% of bets on other side [NW has 81%]
B: at least a 1pt/10c line move [moved from +9.5 to +8, making it more favored moneywise]

Rutgers on the other hand, I'd wait on until it moves a full point. Half point moves may also be ok, but haven't been proven to work longterm. They may work, but I'd stick with the full pt move.

[rossta4i]

Indiana fits the criteria perfectly at this point in time.
A: at least 60% of bets on other side [NW has 81%]
B: at least a 1pt/10c line move [moved from +9.5 to +8, making it more favored moneywise]

Rutgers on the other hand, I'd wait on until it moves a full point. Half point moves may also be ok, but haven't been proven to work longterm. They may work, but I'd stick with the full pt move.

thanks for your help. If I just stick with a line movement with a full point or more would I play the same units as my regular plays. Just by looking a the reverse line movements how would I know if it's a sharp plays?

[Masu485]

thanks for your help. If I just stick with a line movement with a full point or more would I play the same units as my regular plays. Just by looking a the reverse line movements how would I know if it's a sharp plays?

i don't really understand the first question, assuming it's what i think, i'd say bet slightly less units than your regular plays for a bit just to try out this method.

and you can tell the sharp play as the one with less # of bets on it BUT the line moves to make it more favored. Indiana is the sharp play because even though more people bet on NW, the line still moved to make Indiana more favored, meaning tons more money was on it, with the ASSUMPTION that the sharps are the ones betting the BIG money. it's the amount of money that changes lines not the # of bets on it.

[rossta4i]

My mind is still spinning trying to look at the lines. The question was lets say the indiana play, would you bet more because you know alot of money is being bet to move the line?

[tusky26]

then you are not recognizing the reverse line movements properly.. i can tell you 100% have hit in two weeks in the NFL.. in college, though i have not followed it closely, i know 1 lost that i bet...

Robust

actually, i did have the raider game. but, as with most of us addicts, the wins dont stick in the brain NEAR as long as the losses. yeah, it went 1-1 in the pros as i recall.

the college plays REALLY hurt. all of the games that Masu posted were all losses for me.

This week, I am seeing 9 games that fit the criteria. 1 pro and 8 college. According to your guesstimations, am i in the ball park with my interpretations?

[Masu485]

actually, i did have the raider game. but, as with most of us addicts, the wins dont stick in the brain NEAR as long as the losses. yeah, it went 1-1 in the pros as i recall.

the college plays REALLY hurt. all of the games that Masu posted were all losses for me.

This week, I am seeing 9 games that fit the criteria. 1 pro and 8 college. According to your guesstimations, am i in the ball park with my interpretations?

i have 2 pro games that fit the criteria here, and yes exactly 8 college games. you are missing either the arizona or houston game depending on where you're getting your lines from.

it's important to realize that these plays aren't 100% by a long shot. we are aiming for a consistent 54 or 55% by following the money, so losses will be plenty, but profit should come long term. (hopefully...)

[Masu485]

My mind is still spinning trying to look at the lines. The question was lets say the indiana play, would you bet more because you know alot of money is being bet to move the line?

i would not bet more than regular, these aren't 100% plays, just following the money.

AND [IMPORTANT] do not make the mistake of correlating how good a play is by how much the line moves. You could have (1)90% on the opposing side and the line of the other team moving 4 whole points in reverse and (2) 60% on opposing side and only moving 1pt in reverse for the other team. Scenario 1 isn't any more likely to happen just because it reversed more, bet same amount on all RLMs, 1pt moves or and 5 pt moves, same.

[rossta4i]

masu thanks for your help bro!

[yisman]

Indiana worked out perfectly. Even got the straight up win, at a ML of like +250.

[Masu485]

Indiana worked out perfectly. Even got the straight up win, at a ML of like +250.

they did, some other games i bet on last night though moved to only a half point reverse move at gametime.

not doing as badly as last saturday, but nothing to shout about either. so far (according to the lines LAST NIGHT) i'm 2-2, kansas state and kansas not coming through.

michigan is now also losing it to michigan state, and has no chance to cover. so 2-3.

tennessee +4.5 over alabama
idaho +12.5 over new mexico state
washington +10 over notre dame

and i'll say right now, i doubt i'll win the tennessee and washington games, so i'm predicting a 3-5 day at best.

[McRich]

After a lot of discussion this week here on the message board with LT and Robust, I am starting to understand RLM. I bet some of these games today.

2.5 units on Indiana. Nice win.
1 unit on Louisville. Win.

I have some more today. I'll let you know how it comes out later.

Funny thing is, U of M was the sharp play, but I am a MSU Spartan fan and there is no way in hell I would bet against my Spartans vs. scUM. So I went against the RLM for another win today.

[McRich]

Regardless if I end up or down on the RLM bets today, it has really helped me out with my handicapping.

This is another reason why this forum is a good place for information. I would have never figured out this type of information on my own in a million years.

Thanks to all the veteran cappers for proving information here.

[Robust]

After a lot of discussion this week here on the message board with LT and Robust, I am starting to understand RLM. I bet some of these games today.

2.5 units on Indiana. Nice win.
1 unit on Louisville. Win.

I have some more today. I'll let you know how it comes out later.

Funny thing is, U of M was the sharp play, but I am a MSU Spartan fan and there is no way in hell I would bet against my Spartans vs. scUM. So I went against the RLM for another win today.

very nice!!! i lost 3 parlays because of that game.. 1 was to win 128K.. LOL.. so you can see these are not locks, just good plays.. many hit.. i had about 13 RLM.. i would say 70% or so.. will check when all the games are over..

Robust

[McRich]

very nice!!! i lost 3 parlays because of that game.. 1 was to win 128K.. LOL.. so you can see these are not locks, just good plays.. many hit.. i had about 13 RLM.. i would say 70% or so.. will check when all the games are over..

Robust

Yeah, my Spartan loyalty paid off. I have actually won a ton of money on the Spartans this year.

Thanks Robust for helping me understand RLM this week. Your (and LT Profits) knowledge really helped.

[Robust]

Yeah, my Spartan loyalty paid off. I have actually won a ton of money on the Spartans this year.

Thanks Robust for helping me understand RLM this week. Your (and LT Profits) knowledge really helped.

thanks for the credit.. but i am a numbers guy.. i saw a weird trend and reported it.. without LT to open the knowledge vault and explain.. you and I would still not fully know the reasoning..

so thanks LT!!

Robust

[rossta4i]

they did, some other games i bet on last night though moved to only a half point reverse move at gametime.

not doing as badly as last saturday, but nothing to shout about either. so far (according to the lines LAST NIGHT) i'm 2-2, kansas state and kansas not coming through.

michigan is now also losing it to michigan state, and has no chance to cover. so 2-3.

tennessee +4.5 over alabama
idaho +12.5 over new mexico state
washington +10 over notre dame

and i'll say right now, i doubt i'll win the tennessee and washington games, so i'm predicting a 3-5 day at best.

I also looked at those game too. but also got some others some was with half point or more. I was also looking at some with no line change but % of bet was a min of 60/40.

Rutgers +9.5 win
Indiana +8.5 win
Tenn +6.5 pending
Louisville +4 win
kansas -1 lost
Duke +9.5 win
Kent St. +3.5 win
Washington +10 pending
Idaho +11 Win

no line change bet but betting % was off
Toledo +3.5 win
Bowling Green +6.5 win

I didn't bet these games today I just wanted to see how well RLM works.

[Masu485]

I also looked at those game too. but also got some others some was with half point or more. I was also looking at some with no line change but % of bet was a min of 60/40.

Rutgers +9.5 win
Indiana +8.5 win
Tenn +6.5 pending
Louisville +4 win
kansas -1 lost
Duke +9.5 win
Kent St. +3.5 win
Washington +10 pending
Idaho +11 Win

no line change bet but betting % was off
Toledo +3.5 win
Bowling Green +6.5 win

I didn't bet these games today I just wanted to see how well RLM works.

that's good work. i checked this morning though and the kansas line closed at kansas +2, making that game a no play. i also didnt bet today (taking a week off), just tracked the plays that fit, and i didn't think it did too well. in the ballpark of 3-5... give or take 1.

[yisman]

I suppose this deserves a bump

[yisman]

correct me if I'm wrong, but the percentage has been over 60% on the Giants and the spread doesn't seem to be moving that way.

[Robust]

correct me if I'm wrong, but the percentage has been over 60% on the Giants and the spread doesn't seem to be moving that way.

Two days ago:

11/9/2008 NEW YORK GIANTS 43.5 43.5*** 76% off 76%
20:15 EST PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3 -3.0*** 24% 24%

Today:

2008-11-09 NEW YORK GIANTS 43.5 43.0 54% 93% 79% Click Here
20:15 EST PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3 -3.0 46% 7% 21%

the public money is comming in, but the BIG money was already bet on Phili early...

Although you can read the giants as the pick in the last hour, I will stick with phili and the early sharp bettors..

best of luck bro!

Robust

[Dbldown11]

nevermind this....haha my post made no sense

[smitch124]

Looking at the final numbers at SI:

At least 60% and No Line Move
49ers (L)

At least 60% and Reverse Line Move of 1/2 point or more:
Raiders (L)
Lions (W)
Rams (W)
Cardinals (W)

At least 60% and Reverse Line Move of 1 point or more:
Rams (W)
Cardinals (W)

You left out the Lions from your list, Vikes has 62% of bets and line went from -13.5 to -13. Ravens did not qualify because the Colts only had 58% of bets. I don't know how you got Houston, as the action ended up 50/50.

Again, I use Sports Insights to get my percentages and I do this for Sides Only.

As I have tried to put this angle into motion, another question has come up. In NCCAF, for this particular question, we are ideally looking for a 1 point move in the line. As you know not all 1 point moves are created equal, 2.5 to 3.5 is one thing and 18 to 19 is quite another. Have you developed a criteria for this?

It would seem to me that a more reliable criteria for a line move may be, for instance, 5% of edge difference according to the 1/2 point calculator. Any thoughts or experiences with this LT?

[LT Profits]

As I have tried to put this angle into motion, another question has come up. In NCCAF, for this particular question, we are ideally looking for a 1 point move in the line. As you know not all 1 point moves are created equal, 2.5 to 3.5 is one thing and 18 to 19 is quite another. Have you developed a criteria for this?

It would seem to me that a more reliable criteria for a line move may be, for instance, 5% of edge difference according to the 1/2 point calculator. Any thoughts or experiences with this LT?

Obviously very valid, although SI's records are based on one point moves regardless of spreads. Only adjustment I would suggest is treating half-point move on or off of 3 as a one-point move.

[LT Profits]

And in COLLEGE SPORTS ONLY, require 1.5 points for speads between 10-19.5, and require 2 points for spreads of 20+.

[smitch124]

Obviously very valid, although SI's records are based on one point moves regardless of spreads. Only adjustment I would suggest is treating half-point move on or off of 3 as a one-point move.

OK, I gotcha. What I will try to do going forward is keep track of the actual % change edgewise per the 1/2 point calculator at the time of my wager and see if a pattern emerges...

[smitch124]

And in COLLEGE SPORTS ONLY, require 1.5 points for speads between 10-19.5, and require 2 points for spreads of 20+.

Actually I had moved my bets to 1/2 for moves of 1 point in that range, but will consider holding off completely.

[jhnbrick]

Sports.com shows that Oakland and Miami are playing on Sunday.

74% are on Miami
26% are on Oakland

Line went from Miami -11 to Miami -10.5

This is an example of the 'Holy Grail' of line Movement?

[jhnbrick]

Sports.com shows that Colts are playing the Texans

70% on Colts
30% on Texans

Line moved from Colts -9 to Colts -8.5

Reverse Line movement?

[jhnbrick]

Another game confusing...

Titans have 95% of the money yet the line is still at -3

Take Jags because the line has not followed the money so sharps are on the underdog???

[LT Profits]

jhnbrick,

Those are all good examples based on the numbers you quoted, although the best situation,would be move of a full point.

[jhnbrick]

Ok, this is crazy....

Cinci 22%
Eagles 78%

Line went from Eagles -9.5 to -9

This is crazy.. every game has reverse line movement??? Play all of them??

[dwaechte]

Make sure you're looking at the price of the numbers being offered jhn. That Titans game for instance isn't really a "3".

[jhnbrick]

Why is it not really a 3? I believe that big (sharp money) is on Jags due to the lack of line movement

[dwaechte]

Why is it not really a 3? I believe that big (sharp money) is on Jags due to the lack of line movement

First off, RLM really only applies when the line actually moves in the opposite direction. Standing still doesn't have as good of results.

Secondly, it's not really a three because at most books it's either priced at -2.5 or it's priced at 3 where taking -3 pays much better than taking +3. You have to watch the cents move on the pricing. Right now at Pinny Tennessee is -3 +113. If 95% remained on Tenny and the pricing changed to -3 +120, that could probably be considered an RLM.