When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[LT Profits]

RLM plays are KILLING me today!!!!!! (Rams, Lions... plus near-RLM, Niners and Titans)

Read my last post. You should only follow moved of FULL point and Rams and Raiders were only plays.

[Capybara]

It is not 68% of the money, it is 68% of the total bets.

Thus, the amount bet by the 32% exceeds the amount bet by the 68%, which is why it would be considered a sharp move.

Wait a second, it's 65% of the total bets on Denver, from the FIRST column (Side) -- Then it's the MONEY column that says 68%. I don't understand how that can not mean there's 68% of the actual money on Denver. :-( Can you try again to explain the difference between the two columns? Sorry for being stupid!

[louisvillekid]

Wait a second, it's 65% of the total bets on Denver, from the FIRST column (Side) -- Then it's the MONEY column that says 68%. I don't understand how that can not mean there's 68% of the actual money on Denver. :-( Can you try again to explain the difference between the two columns? Sorry for being stupid!

books don't release their actual 'hold" or money that is, that's going each way. all we can see is the total amount of wages placed, we can see like 12,325 total bets are placed on a said game, but we don't know if out of the lets say 72% for one side that there is mostly bets ranging from $5-1000, but the other side might have a few choice players throwing down $5000-10,000

plus if you read in the fine print at most of the sites that are offering the number of wages and the % going each way, they will say it is only for their book only, or just a few choice books that will give out that info.

[LT Profits]

Wait a second, it's 65% of the total bets on Denver, from the FIRST column (Side) -- Then it's the MONEY column that says 68%. I don't understand how that can not mean there's 68% of the actual money on Denver. :-( Can you try again to explain the difference between the two columns? Sorry for being stupid!

No, the second column is percentage of bets on the Money Line of each game.

[McRich]

I went 3-2 in RLM today. 2-2 in NFL and 1-0 in NBA.

Overall record is 11-7.

The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

NBA 4-2
NCAABB 3-0
NCAAF 2-3
NFL 2-2

[Robust]

FYI:

sports dot com is not updating their betting trends as of 2 days ago i believe.. right now, they still show -2.5 for NO. when you log in, the actual side is 0 (pk).. tread lightly when looking at their info.. not sure if this is short term or on purpose because of the flood of people looking at the lines..

Robust

[EBDOG]

mine says pk right now on sports.com

[Robust]

yup..

i posted and they changed it..

been monitoring for 2 days and the lines were not changing.. wonder if they got someone here reading.. hehe

Robust

[McRich]

I only have a couple of RLM leans right now. No official plays right now. Leans to the Bobcats in NBA and Santa Clara in NCAAB. I will post later if I play.

[McRich]

RLM plays tonight - NBA Bobcats +3 and Santa Clara +5.5.

[EBDOG]

nvm

[Masu485]

2008-11-24 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -3.5 -4.0 77% 55% 78%
19:05 EST CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 180.0 176.0 23% 45% 22%
thats not a reverse line movement

i think he's using the Sports Insights bet tracker. which currently has 74% of bets on 76ers, but line moves from +4.5 to +3 for bobcats.

[Masu485]

nvm

oh ok cool then

[Capybara]

RLM plays tonight - NBA Bobcats +3 and Santa Clara +5.5.

I'm with ya! I'm in on this experiment too.

But how did you get two NFL RLM wins yesterday? My only win with it was the Raiders?

[Masu485]

what about NHL?

79% on Rangers and line went from -165 to -157. i know it's not exactly a 10 cent move, but it can pass maybe.

also the Canadiens went from -240 to -215, a 25 cent move and they have 61% of bets. in all honesty though, i think the habs win this game...

[Capybara]

RLM plays tonight - NBA Bobcats +3 and Santa Clara +5.5.

I went with you, but for the record, neither of those are RLM plays based on the info at sports.com.

2008-11-24 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -3.5 -4.0 77%
19:05 EST CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 180.0 176.0 23%

Betting with Philly and line moving with Philly.

2008-11-24 SANTA CLARA 117 52%
20:00 EST GEORGIA -6 -5.0 48%

Betting slightly with SC (but not close to the 60% "activation" territory) and line moving with SC as well.

WEIRD that we're not getting consistent info! Anyone have any idea why?

[Masu485]

WEIRD that we're not getting consistent info! Anyone have any idea why?

McRich, LT, myself, and a lot of others here use Sports Insights' bettracker to track RLMs. i've used sports.com before but it doesn't seem as accurate, especially for moneylines.

[Capybara]

McRich, LT, myself, and a lot of others here use Sports Insights' bettracker to track RLMs. i've used sports.com before but it doesn't seem as accurate, especially for moneylines.

Yeah, I sort of knew that, but didn't think it would be so different... the NFL RLMs were almost all aligned I think.

But how much do you guys all pay to see that bet tracker??

[Masu485]

Yeah, I sort of knew that, but didn't think it would be so different... the NFL RLMs were almost all aligned I think.

But how much do you guys all pay to see that bet tracker??

well i don't pay anything to see it, but it is the best free service i've heard. just type in 'two minute warning bettracker' into google and it'll be the first thing that pops up.

[McRich]

I'm with ya! I'm in on this experiment too.

But how did you get two NFL RLM wins yesterday? My only win with it was the Raiders?

LT likes the full point move. I am still experimenting with half point plays. I have been using this web site for numbers

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

[Capybara]

I've used the free Bettracker too, but it only lists the NFL, right? How are you seeing other sports on it, I don't see how to switch it over... Thanks.

[McRich]

I've used the free Bettracker too, but it only lists the NFL, right? How are you seeing other sports on it, I don't see how to switch it over... Thanks.

The link I posted shows the other sports too.

[Capybara]

Woo-hoo, we got Charlotte! RLM strikes again!!

[McRich]

Woo-hoo, we got Charlotte! RLM strikes again!!

Cha chingo!!!

[McRich]

what about NHL?

79% on Rangers and line went from -165 to -157. i know it's not exactly a 10 cent move, but it can pass maybe.

also the Canadiens went from -240 to -215, a 25 cent move and they have 61% of bets. in all honesty though, i think the habs win this game...

I haven't tried NHL. Hey LT, give us some tips on NHL RLM.

[McRich]

I went 1-1 in RLM today. 1-0 in NBA and 0-1 in NCAAB (just missed this one: Santa Clara +5.5, lost by 6 )

Overall record is 12-8.

The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

NBA 5-2
NCAABB 3-1
NCAAF 2-3
NFL 2-2

[pirate sports]

northern ill. would be the play tonight

[Masu485]

northern ill. would be the play tonight

i'm gonna add Northern Illinois to my list. For the past 3 or 4 weeks they've been the RLM play.

it just seems that some teams are always the RLM play.

i bet St. Louis Rams will be the RLM play next time they play.

[nick2060]

wouldnt eastern michigan be a RLM play, they started at +6 and are now +5 even though 75 percent is on cornell in cbb

[EBDOG]

wouldnt eastern michigan be a RLM play, they started at +6 and are now +5 even though 75 percent is on cornell in cbb

correct

[dmolition]

wouldnt eastern michigan be a RLM play, they started at +6 and are now +5 even though 75 percent is on cornell in cbb

Im new posting but i have been reading the forums for a while now, would like to chip in on this interesting discussion.

Using Pinnacle as reference the line moved back from +5 to +5.5 and the bets on twominutewarning are only 1320. When the RLM happened there where only like 500 bets so,

What could be a good number of bets on NCAAB to have a confirmed RLM? , i know that 5K is good on daily NBA and MLB and 10K is good for the weekly sports, but what happens if the RLM takes place with less than a thousand bets in and then suddenly the lines goes back against you as game time approaches?

just wondering cause i´ve seen it happen a few times with not the best of results so far from a small sample size.

[yisman]

I don't think Northern Illinois is a RLM play tonight.

[nick2060]

yea im not sure about any specific rules of money line i was just stating that the line moved, but i do think ball st. against wisconsin-milwaukee might be more along the rules of RLM, considering the line was -7 for wisconsin-milwaukee and is now -5.5 at a lot of places even though 66 percent is on wisconsin milwaukee

[McRich]

I had some things to do today so I have not been able to cap the RLM yet. I just saw Santa Clara as a super strong RLM play at +9 but the game already started. Darn. I am going to look around for some plays.

[McRich]

I am on Penn +2 vs. Penn St. in NCAABB for an RLM play.