When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[Robust]

I follow this concept and posted breifly on it last week.. decided to post again as i went 4-0 when i followed the money. look at these lines:

2008-10-12 MIAMI DOLPHINS 46 44.5 73% 91% 43%
13:00 EST HOUSTON TEXANS -3 -3.0 27% 9% 57%

2008-10-12 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 48 48.0 52% 94% 43%
16:05 EST DENVER BRONCOS -3.5 -3.5 48% 6% 57%

2008-10-12 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4.5 -4.5 90% 38% 94%
16:15 EST SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 44 42.5 10% 62% 6%

this tells me the sharps like these teams, so i am riding their coattails once more..

Robust

[yisman]

I thought you go the other way because the books know something?

Those games also don't provide much other than to say the sharps like Philly.

[Robust]

good memory! i did post something similar to that.. then i read more, and looked at what others were posting (what the sharps like) and i read more.. got away with 4 last week.. plus Minn.. (though they should have lost but were given 2 TDs) i am happy nevertheless..

let me state that my "final" opinions are right before the games.. lol

i sometimes contradict myself due to new info.. and i post so anyone thinking i picked a winner and wanna go with me will kinow i changed my mind .. though if you are following me, please stop!! i have fallen on my face way more times than i have won

Robust

[yisman]

57% isn't significant enough anyway. 70+ and no movement is reason to notice.

[Mic Lowrey]

where do you find the % of where the money is going?

[Robust]

where do you find the % of where the money is going?

sports.com lists them under "Live betting trends" towards the bottom of the front page.

and the low percentage might not mean anything, but last week, 2 were low and hit.. just an fyi..

Robust

EDIT: looked at my spreadsaheet and you are right!! all were high percent.. i dunno why i remembered low.. will post the non moving spreads in a sec

[Robust]

these are all the spreads i found that didn't move along with the final scores.. nice trend, eh?

10/5/2008 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 -3.0*** 96% off 96% 31
13:00 EST HOUSTON TEXANS 46 47.0*** 4% 4% 27

10/5/2008 TENNESSEE TITANS -3 -3.0*** 73% off 92% 13
13:00 EST BALTIMORE RAVENS 35 33.0*** 27% 8% 10

10/5/2008 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 44 42.5*** 68% off 81% 23
13:00 EST PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -6 -6.0*** 32% 19% 17

10/5/2008 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3 -3.0*** 95% off 76% 30
16:15 EST SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 42 41.0*** 5% 24% 21

10/5/2008 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 36 36.0*** 27% off 85% 26
20:15 EST JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -4 -4.0*** 73% 15% 21

10/6/2008 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 47 46.5*** 12% off 97% 30
20:35 EST NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 -3.0*** 88% 3% 27

Robust

[LT Profits]

Your thinking is backwards. When there is a large perentage of bets on one side and the line does not move, it means that the sharps are on the team with the LOWER pct. of bets.

[yisman]

sports.com lists them under "Live betting trends" towards the bottom of the front page.

and the low percentage might not mean anything, but last week, 2 were low and hit.. just an fyi..

Robust

EDIT: looked at my spreadsaheet and you are right!! all were high percent.. i dunno why i remembered low.. will post the non moving spreads in a sec

You gotta listen to me more often!

[yisman]

Your thinking is backwards. When there is a large perentage of bets on one side and the line does not move, it means that the sharps are on the team with the LOWER pct. of bets.

it worked for Robust for one week, but in the long run, LT is right.

If a high % is going one way and the line doesn't move, go against the public. This means Vegas most likely knows something and is thus not moving with the action. In the long run, you will make money using this strategy.

[LT Profits]

it worked for Robust for one week, but in the long run, LT is right.

If a high % is going one way and the line doesn't move, go against the public. This means Vegas most likely knows something and is thus not moving with the action. In the long run, you will make money using this strategy.

No, it generally means that just as much money was bet by the sharps over the smaller percentage of bets as was bet by the squares over the higher majority.

[LT Profits]

To illustrate with the Eagles/49ers, lets say 95 people bet Philly and 5 people bet SF. The 95 people are squares thet bets $1,000 each (95,000 total) while the 5 people are sharps that bet $19,000 each (95,000 total). Thus, the money bet on each side is balanced so the line does not move.

[Robust]

so you are saying (using this example), if the money is low on one side (27% and 12%), but the total is greater on the other (85% and 97%), this is the way to go?

10/5/2008 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 36 36.0*** 27% off 85% 26
20:15 EST JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -4 -4.0*** 73% 15% 21

10/6/2008 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 47 46.5*** 12% off 97% 30
20:35 EST NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 -3.0*** 88% 3% 27

Robust

[onthewhat]

since when does being a big bettor make you a sharp?

if i bet $19,000...I'm still a square

Pags is a sharp and he has posted that he only bets triple digits per game, not even a dime

[Robust]

since when does being a big bettor make you a sharp?

if i bet $19,000...I'm still a square

Pags is a sharp and he has posted that he only bets triple digits per game, not even a dime

i am guessing because if you bet big and are not a sharp, it wont be too many more times you are able to do it

seriously.. i bet $5 as a unit.. been doing $20 now consistently.. might have to now call it my unit.. trying not to.. lol

Robust

[LT Profits]

since when does being a big bettor make you a sharp?

if i bet $19,000...I'm still a square

Pags is a sharp and he has posted that he only bets triple digits per game, not even a dime

Because most people that bet that kind of money are sharps. Just because one or two aren't, that doesn't change the concept. It is also why blindly following reverse line movement is profitable in the long run in every sport.

[LT Profits]

i am guessing because if you bet big and are not a sharp, it wont be too many more times you are able to do it

I actually like Robust's answer better.

[keystonekid]

You have got me thinking to much on this. Can you simplify it. Are you saying that if the opener does not move, go with that team? Like if Denver opens with -3 and stays at -3 go with Denver -3? And if the opener is Denver -3 and it moves to Denver -6 go with the other team?

[LT Profits]

You have got me thinking to much on this. Can you simplify it. Are you saying that if the opener does not move, go with that team? Like if Denver opens with -3 and stays at -3 go with Denver -3? And if the opener is Denver -3 and it moves to Denver -6 go with the other team?

No.

If you don't want to handicap and want to play strictly line moves, there are three scenarios:

1 - The most common is that the line moves in the same direction as where the money goes. Using your example, Denver opens at -3, gets 75% of all the bets and moves to -6.
In this case, since the move is expected, we do nothing.

2 - There is heavy action on one side yet the line does not move. In this case, bet the team that has the lower percentage of bets. So if Denver opens at -3 and stays at -3, if 75% of bets are on Denver, bet the other side. If 75% of bets are on the other side, bet on Denver.

3 - The Holy Grail for Smart Money followers is reverse line movement. This is when the line moves in the OPPOSITE direction of the side that has the higher pct. of bets. Following these moves is profitable in the long run, and is one of the reasons I love ARIZONA tomorrow. So if Denver opens at -6, 65% of the bets are on Denver and yet they drop to -3, the opponent is a strong play.

[MexicanStallion]

Dumb question what do the % mean? Which is the 1st, 2nd, 3rd %

[yisman]

To illustrate with the Eagles/49ers, lets say 95 people bet Philly and 5 people bet SF. The 95 people are squares thet bets $1,000 each (95,000 total) while the 5 people are sharps that bet $19,000 each (95,000 total). Thus, the money bet on each side is balanced so the line does not move.

Sometimes it is true that a smaller percentage is putting in big bets, but there are other times where you see the line doesn't move despite the money being heavy on one side.

[keystonekid]

I am starting to catch on. But, where are you getting where the money is going. ex. 75% on a team? Is there a site with this info?

[yisman]

sports.com lists them under "Live betting trends" towards the bottom of the front page.

[SexyMit]

Tampa Bay tomorrow is one of those game.

[LT Profits]

Sports Insights is the most reloable for betting percentages.

[LT Profits]

Tampa Bay tomorrow is one of those game.

No, they opened -3 at CRIS and -1.5 and Pinny, and are now -1 at both.

[LT Profits]

And Carolina does not quailify because they have a majority of the bets, so the move matches the money.

[SexyMit]

Ok I didn't see that. On Bettracker it shows it opened up at -1 and is still sitting there. Texans are the big play today, but then again they were last week also and they CHOKED

[outdrawed]

Ok I didn't see that. On Bettracker it shows it opened up at -1 and is still sitting there. Texans are the big play today, but then again they were last week also and they CHOKED

How are you coming to these conclusions? The money isn't flowing in on Miami.

[BigDeal]

Ok thanks for this confussing thread I now have a headache and at 10 am I'm heading for the liquer!

[SexyMit]

77% ML and 60% +3 all on Miami and the line has not moved.

[outdrawed]

Then I have to doubt your information. Because covers shows it split 50/50, and SIA has it 55/45 Miami.

[BigDeal]

Ok I tryied looking at the nunmber and if I am correct on what is being said the lines to take are Oak, Balt, Hou, Stl, SF, ad AZ also possibly. Jets, CHI, and NYG. Over unders Car u, Min u, NYG o, Bal u ans SF u. Ok now tell me why I've scewed it all up!

[McRich]

OK, so provide some insight to me.

The Colts/Ravens game opened at Colts -6 and it is now Colts -3.5.

The betting trends are:

Side Money Total
Ravens 47% 68% 72%
Colts 53% 34% 28%

So using the data above, what is the sharp bet?

Thanks.

[Robust]

these spreads stayed/came back to starting point:

10/12/2008 DETROIT LIONS 47 44.0*** 46% 95% 22% 10
13:00 EST MINNESOTA VIKINGS -13 -13.0*** 54% 5% 78% 12

10/12/2008 MIAMI DOLPHINS 46 45.0*** 73% 91% 43% 28
13:00 EST HOUSTON TEXANS -3 -3.0*** 27% 9% 57% 29


both winners..

the first post references Jax/Den.. the spread moved so it no longer matched the criteria of this theory..

not bad, eh?

Robust