When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[Robust]

are you looking at totals ?

yep!

LT and others have stated this is NOT the way to do it properly.. i have seen 100% success in the past two weeks, so i am riding the wave again.. LOL

do NOT follow me people.. i am no sharp by any means.. i will most likely fall on my face..

oh.. and check Cle/Was.. line just reversed movement.. Was is now the pick (from the post you highlighted EBDOG)..

Robust

[lovetobet]

Wow this sh*t is blowing up!! Sorry I couldn't chime in with some answers after I stated that I would, got buried at work and stuck here till 8:00 last night (gotta pay for this gambling addiction .

So it looks like everyones questions have been answered excepts for Masu485, "so, for example, does anyone know what the NHL plays would be tonight, based on this?".

There was one example last night if you follow the premise of at least 10 cent line movement - Washington vs Pittsburgh:

Pitt opened at CRIS -135, 75% ot the action came in on Pitt, on the ML, and the closing line was Pitt -125.

Thus 3/4 of the action on Pitt and the line dropped 10 cents.

I bet this and TCU last night and was pleasantly suprised when I got home. Glad I wasn't watching the hockey game since it looks like Washington was down 3-0 in the 2nd before turning it on.

I should have time today to keep and eye on this thread, so I'll try to chime in if there are questions, damn work always getting in the way of having fun.

GL everyone!

[lovetobet]

Oh yeah EBDOG, just to slightly correct what Robust said above. O/U's should not be looked at except in hockey, this is according to what LTProfit stated earlier in this thread.

GL

[EBDOG]

yeah i read that...how would a reverse line movement work if they underdog was getting all the money

EBDOG

[Masu485]

Wow this sh*t is blowing up!! Sorry I couldn't chime in with some answers after I stated that I would, got buried at work and stuck here till 8:00 last night (gotta pay for this gambling addiction .

So it looks like everyones questions have been answered excepts for Masu485, "so, for example, does anyone know what the NHL plays would be tonight, based on this?".

There was one example last night if you follow the premise of at least 10 cent line movement - Washington vs Pittsburgh:

Pitt opened at CRIS -135, 75% ot the action came in on Pitt, on the ML, and the closing line was Pitt -125.

Thus 3/4 of the action on Pitt and the line dropped 10 cents.

thanks a lot, although a bit too late

but where do you get your info for line movements from? sports.com doesn't really work too well, bettracker from two minute warning seems good, but it's always so different from vegasinsider. which is the best one?

i checked all those sites to see if any nhl game fit the criteria and didn't find any. i don't find my sites reliable...

[Masu485]

yeah i read that...how would a reverse line movement work if they underdog was getting all the money

EBDOG

dogs don't get all the money as often as favorites obviously, but if they do, and the line is still going towards giving them points or getting higher odds on the ML, then go with the fav.

[Mic Lowrey]

OK, so provide some insight to me.

The Colts/Ravens game opened at Colts -6 and it is now Colts -3.5.

The betting trends are:

Side Money Total
Ravens 47% 68% 72%
Colts 53% 34% 28%

So using the data above, what is the sharp bet?

Thanks.

to have followed the colts - if the line dropped that much than you can see tons of money is being dumped on the colts which is the smart money and it is the popular play that means even the public is taking that side as well.... So everyone is dumpin on the colts - was a winner

[roasthawg]

to have followed the colts - if the line dropped that much than you can see tons of money is being dumped on the colts which is the smart money and it is the popular play that means even the public is taking that side as well.... So everyone is dumpin on the colts - was a winner

You're backwards on this...sharp money was on Balt. The line dropped from -6 to -3.5 making the Colts a more attractive bet.

[Masu485]

to have followed the colts - if the line dropped that much than you can see tons of money is being dumped on the colts which is the smart money and it is the popular play that means even the public is taking that side as well.... So everyone is dumpin on the colts - was a winner

you have it a bit backwards, it it opened at -3.5 and went to -6, then you'd be correct. but more bets were placed on colts, yet they became less favored, meaning smart money was on ravens.

it would have been a no play for me in any case because i pull the trigger at least at 60% and it was only around 53% here.

[LT Profits]

You're backwards on this...sharp money was on Balt. The line dropped from -6 to -3.5 making the Colts a more attractive bet.

But since the betting pct. on Colts was less than 60%, I would not have followed it anyway.

[roasthawg]

But since the betting pct. on Colts was less than 60%, I would not have followed it anyway.

Sure, but the line move was still very significant.

I'm bitter cause I was on Balt, bad play!

[LT Profits]

Masu beat me to the punch.

[LT Profits]

thanks a lot, although a bit too late

but where do you get your info for line movements from? sports.com doesn't really work too well, bettracker from two minute warning seems good, but it's always so different from vegasinsider. which is the best one?

i checked all those sites to see if any nhl game fit the criteria and didn't find any. i don't find my sites reliable...

Bettracker is powered by Sports Insights, so that's the best free one to use.

[Masu485]

Bettracker is powered by Sports Insights, so that's the best free one to use.

ah thank you, been trying to find out for a while now.

vegasinsider has different opening lines to other places a lot of the time.

they had Boise opening at -26.5 and now at -24.5. i was gonna go for hawaii since there's 60% on boise. now i see no where else had them opening at -26, so i'm not gonna make a move.

[melia26]

Flip Flop Tracking

This thread has been an eye opener for me. I love to look at numbers, and I was wondering if there is any trend/pattern/movement to follow when a line flip flops. Home fave to road fave, or road fave to home fave? Thanks again, you guys are amazing!

[smitch124]

LT, Do you know if the stats you quote in your article for the results when betting this reverse line movement are for betting the opening or closing number??

[lovetobet]

Masu - sorry I couldn't get that info to you yesterday, I was just giving you an example but it seems you clearly understand the concept .

Also LT beat me to the punch (your all over this LT) but I still say check out Sports Insights. Depending on your avg. bet amount it is worth the investment from what i have seen in the last few day. I bet between $50 - $250 a game and basically if I get a single avg. win a month then it has paid itself off. Which means it more than paid for itself last night on TCU & the Capitals

[lovetobet]

This thread has been an eye opener for me. I love to look at numbers, and I was wondering if there is any trend/pattern/movement to follow when a line flip flops. Home fave to road fave, or road fave to home fave? Thanks again, you guys are amazing!

If I am understanding your question that's essentially what this thread is about but you need to also be looking at where the $ is going to truly make it significant.

[LT Profits]

LT, Do you know if the stats you quote in your article for the results when betting this reverse line movement are for betting the opening or closing number??

Based on lines when the bets were actually placed (i.e., once a line reverse moved at least one point from the opener after a significant number of bets have been placed). I believe that by "significant number", SI means at least 10,000 bets.

[LT Profits]

I should add that once a game has over 10.000 bets on it and the reverse move hits one point, you should bet ASAP because the game often keeps on steaming that way.

Also, the reason I said to wait until two hours before gametime for the day-to-day sports is that the volume is smaller and it may take that long to get 10,000 bets to make the moves meaningful.

[Masu485]

I should add that once a game has over 10.000 bets on it and the reverse move hits one point, you should bet ASAP because the game often keeps on steaming that way.

Also, the reason I said to wait until two hours before gametime for the day-to-day sports is that the volume is smaller and it may take that long to get 10,000 bets to make the moves meaningful.

for weekly football, is it best to bet:

- once it hits 10,000 bets
-or early gameday
-or midweek?

thanks in advance

[mehdim]

i think minesota, oakland nad sanfransisco is good for this week

what is your idea guys?

[smitch124]

Based on lines when the bets were actually placed (i.e., once a line reverse moved at least one point from the opener after a significant number of bets have been placed). I believe that by "significant number", SI means at least 10,000 bets.

Got it, Thanks LT

[mehdim]

i think tornto maple ML is good for NHL today

[LT Profits]

for weekly football, is it best to bet:

- once it hits 10,000 bets
-or early gameday
-or midweek?

thanks in advance

Oftentimes, 10,000 bets and midweek are one and the same. Gameday is usually too late because game may move 5 or 6 points by then (OK a bit extreme, but you get the point).

[LT Profits]

i think minesota, oakland nad sanfransisco is good for this week

what is your idea guys?

Also Buffalo.

And it looks like you are right about Leafs tonight.

[smitch124]

i think tornto maple ML is good for NHL today

Looks like an example to me as well, mehdim.

[mehdim]

am i a good student LT????????

[mehdim]

Dear LT

you suggest that before 2 hours of daily game we must chek the line movements?

[LT Profits]

Dear LT

you suggest that before 2 hours of daily game we must chek the line movements?

That's my ballpark figure, ideally you want to wait until game has 10,000 bets.

[LT Profits]

am i a good student LT????????

Well you DID miss Buffalo.

[mehdim]

for daily game it is rarely to reach 10,000 bets

you suggest taht for daily games we can check the line 2 hours before game?

[Masu485]

Well you DID miss Buffalo.

ok, one FINAL question, if the line stays the same, you take the smaller percentage right? but to what point would you suggest doing this? plausible in a 60-40 scenario, or more 70-30? what's the minimum you'd do it on?

and lastly, to get things straight, half point moves are a no play? less than 60% reverse line movements are no plays also?

[Masu485]

for daily game it is rarely to reach 10,000 bets

you suggest taht for daily games we can check the line 2 hours before game?

you're right, i don't even picture baseball going that high... and nhl can't see it going higher than 5000 max.

[LT Profits]

Yes, I'd say 2 hours before game,