When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[Robust]

Robust you on Cardinals this weekend?

yup!

Robust

[McRich]

you're thinking about the numbers again.. think about what SHOULD happen.

2008-10-25 TEXAS AM 73% 100% off Click Here
19:00 EST IOWA STATE -2.5 -3.0 27% 0%

Texas has 73% of the bets. They were at +2.5.. now they are at +3.. why would they get a half point more?? this makes no sense..

On the opposite side.. Fewer bets are comming in on Iowa (27%), yet they have to score MORE to cover (-2.5 to -3)..

RLM again.

IOWA St is the play.

Robust

OK, one more game that I want to analyze for RLM.

Kent/Miami of Ohio
Miami started out at -8. They have 62% of the bets which would normally make the number go to say -9.

But the number is now at Miami -6.5. So the sharp bet would be to take Miami. Please confirm. Thanks.

[Robust]

OK, one more game that I want to analyze for RLM.

Kent/Miami of Ohio
Miami started out at -8. They have 62% of the bets which would normally make the number go to say -9.

But the number is now at Miami -6.5. So the sharp bet would be to take Miami. Please confirm. Thanks.

miami only has 38% of the bets, so they cover LESS.. this is proper line movement..

no play..

and try to think it out.. these are easy.. you have to practice.. if i tell ya what to do, you learn nothing..

Robust

[McRich]

miami only has 38% of the bets, so they cover LESS.. this is proper line movement..

no play..

and try to think it out.. these are easy.. you have to practice.. if i tell ya what to do, you learn nothing..

Robust

Wait, I have Miami at 62% of the bets here:

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

[Robust]

Wait, I have Miami at 62% of the bets here:
http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

tried the link and it is not working atm..

doh! checked the NFL miami spread.. LOL

sports.com has Miami Ohio at 38%.. will keep trying at bettracker..

Robust

[roasthawg]

Wait, I have Miami at 62% of the bets here:
http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

I looked at the link and saw Miami with 20% of the bets.

[DeluxeLiner]

McRich two minute warning bet tracker (powered by sports insights) says Miami is getting 20% of the action. I am not sure what you are looking at. This is for the nfl.

[Robust]

did you all make the same mistake i did? Miami NFL is NOT the team..

it is MIAMI Ohio.. CFB

Robust

[roasthawg]

did you all make the same mistake i did? Miami NFL is NOT the team..

it is MIAMI Ohio.. CFB

Robust

Yeah...I was looking at the fins!

[McRich]

Let's try this again for the college game again for RLM.



Kent/Miami of Ohio
Miami started out at -8. They have 62% of the bets which would normally make the number go to say -9.

But the number is now at Miami of Ohio -5. So the sharp bet would be to take Miami.
This is according to http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

Please confirm. Thanks.

[LT Profits]

Let's try this again for the college game again for RLM.



Kent/Miami of Ohio
Miami started out at -8. They have 62% of the bets which would normally make the number go to say -9.

But the number is now at Miami of Ohio -5. So the sharp bet would be to take Miami.
This is according to http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

Please confirm. Thanks.

Sharp side is KENT.

[yisman]

"Miami started out at -8. They have 62% of the bets which would normally make the number go to say -9.

But the number is now at Miami of Ohio -5."

Yes, which means something weird is going on. Why is the line moving away from Miami of Ohoio? It's because the sharps like Kent.

[smitch124]

LT this is an example of my earlier question, line keeps moving 10,000 bets not even close. You would keep waiting?

referring to Kent/Miami (OH) game

[LT Profits]

There was a green alert on Kent three days ago.

[LT Profits]

By the way, I got +7 -115.

[smitch124]

By the way, I got +7 -115.

Very nice, I'm too slow again

[LT Profits]

Are you not getting the alerts smitch?

[smitch124]

No, isn't that a premium feature?

[LT Profits]

I thought you had free trial, which I thought gave you full access for 7 days.

[smitch124]

No I hadn't signed up. I will try it for next weeks games though...

[McRich]

Sharp side is KENT.

OK, so if I am looking at this the right way, I will try another game.

Michigan State vs Michigan.
MSU started -5.5, now they are -3.5. MSU has 63% of the bets.

So LT, would you bet U of M?

[LT Profits]

OK, so if I am looking at this the right way, I will try another game.

Michigan State vs Michigan.
MSU started -5.5, now they are -3.5. MSU has 63% of the bets.

So LT, would you bet U of M?

Correct, although you should have bet at +4.5

[Masu485]

ok, i'm gonna list a point to help Rich out, and then i have two questions of my own.

1 - Rich, when a line moves from +4 to +5 they are LESS favored, when it moves from +5 to +4 they are MORE favored. If they are MORE favored with a smaller % of bets it means that's where the sharp money is. Same with -4 to -3. It means they are LESS favored.

ex:

A. Underdog gets more points (become less favored)
Has a Larger % of bets
+4 to +5 @ 60%
Means FAV has more money on it
Fav is Sharp play

B. Underdog loses points (becomes more favored)
Has a Larger % of bets
+4 to +3 @ 60%
Means dog has more money on it
NO PLAY, because the move is expected

C. Favorite gets more points (becomes more favored)
Has a larger % of bets
-5 to -6 @ 70%
Means fav has more money on it
NO PLAY, becasue the move is expected

D. Favorite loses points (becomes less favored)
Has a larger % of bets
-6 to -5 @ 70%
Means DOG has more money on it
DOG is sharp play

hope this helps you out Rich

I do have 2 other questions for some of the others who know a bit more about this. Going to post them now

[McRich]

ok, i'm gonna list a point to help Rich out, and then i have two questions of my own.

1 - Rich, when a line moves from +4 to +5 they are LESS favored, when it moves from +5 to +4 they are MORE favored. If they are MORE favored with a smaller % of bets it means that's where the sharp money is. Same with -4 to -3. It means they are LESS favored.

ex:

A. Underdog gets more points (become less favored)
Has a Larger % of bets
+4 to +5 @ 60%
Means FAV has more money on it
Fav is Sharp play

B. Underdog loses points (becomes more favored)
Has a Larger % of bets
+4 to +3 @ 60%
Means dog has more money on it
NO PLAY, because the move is expected

C. Favorite gets more points (becomes more favored)
Has a larger % of bets
-5 to -6 @ 70%
Means fav has more money on it
NO PLAY, becasue the move is expected

D. Favorite loses points (becomes less favored)
Has a larger % of bets
-6 to -5 @ 70%
Means DOG has more money on it
DOG is sharp play

hope this helps you out Rich

I do have 2 other questions for some of the others who know a bit more about this. Going to post them now

OK, thank you very much for taking the time to list this out. I will study this info and get back later with possible questions. Thanks to you, LT and Robust for all of the feedback.

[Masu485]

2 - I know I understand the concept, and I'm willing to give this another shot after a DISASTROUS Saturday using this system.

My first question is WHEN do you place your bet? I know it was kind of answered before, but I didn't quite understand so maybe if I get the answer in other wording it'd be better.

For daily sports, NHL/MLB/NBA/CBB, when would you bet on these?

2 hours before gametime?

or Right before gametime/closing lines?

or When it gets to a certain amount of bets? ie. 5000 for NHL, 10000 for the others

And for weekly games (NFL and CFB) or lines that are released days EARLY (such as MLB world series bets), when would you bet?

Midweek when it hits 10 000 bets?
or
early gameday?
or
right before gametime?

Thanks a lot

[LT Profits]

The real sticking point here is what constitues a "sufficient" number of bets on each sport. SI is pretty vague in that area. Regardless, the key is to bet the first one-point reverse move after a sufficient number of bets have been placed. I personally use two hours before gametime for day-to-day sports, Wednesday for CFB and Thursday for NFL, and while those are admittedly arbitrary, they work for me. Only time I act sooner is if I get an alert and the line does indeed look to be moving in reverse.

[Masu485]

3 - And my second and final question.

Is RLM the only way that makes profit in the long run, by backing the sharps?

For example if both the fav and dog are around 50% +/- 10% approx, you can decipher the smart money is on the one whose line changes to make them more favored.

ex: both at 50% bets
fav: -5 to -3
dog: +5 to +3

sharp money's on dog.
yet, this isn't really RLM.

Also, if there is NO line move, it's better to take the team with lower % of bets. I know LT reiterated this point near the beginning of thread.

Also, half point RLM moves could also tell you where the smart money was, but was this profitable too?

And FINALLY, other than the methods listed above, are there other techniques like that to find out where the sharp money's going, NOT necessarily RLM?

Sorry for the multitude of question.

[LT Profits]

Frankly, you shouldn't get too carried away with this. I would just focus on reverse moves with at least a 60% majority only, or you may lose your mind.

In the case you described where a game is 50/50 and their is a sudden move, it could be just as likely that a hot tout just released a play (i.e., Dr. Bob) as it is that it was a sharp move. At least if you only play reverse moves, you already have tangible evidence that it was a sharp move.

[Masu485]

Frankly, you shouldn't get too carried away with this. I would just focus on reverse moves with at least a 60% majority only, or you may lose your mind.

In the case you described where a game is 50/50 and their is a sudden move, it could be just as likely that a hot tout just released a play (i.e., Dr. Bob) as it is that it was a sharp move. At least if you only play reverse moves, you already have tangible evidence that it was a sharp move.

thanks LT, I'm going to do what the original plan was. Seeing as how in your article it did turn a profit last season.

At least 60% w/ at least 1 pt reverse move (around midweek/10000 bets)
At least 60% w/ at least 10c reverse move (around 2 hours before gametime and hope it doesn't reverse back)

Thanks again.

[tusky26]

I've been following the money for a few weeks now. I'm learning the rlm pretty well. My question is this:

when the majority of the money, say 75%-25%, and the line DOESN'T move, is that still a play on the lower percentage? to me, the sharps are playing the 25%.

or is it only rlm in those cases?

[Masu485]

I've been following the money for a few weeks now. I'm learning the rlm pretty well. My question is this:

when the majority of the money, say 75%-25%, and the line DOESN'T move, is that still a play on the lower percentage? to me, the sharps are playing the 25%.

or is it only rlm in those cases?

yes, that's what i was asking just above, there are numerous scenarios where you can deduce where the majority of money is going in almost every game, but like LT said, it's best just to be concerned with RLMs and i'm gonna follow that.

RLMs of at least 10c or 1pt moves are the only ones that have proven to bring profit over the season. (well for last season at least, in EVERY major sport).

[tusky26]

I thought so, but Lt's reply had me questioning the strategy because I actually am losing my mind from it. Last weekend the theory got waxed. Like one win out of four or five. (at least from my interpretation of the SI pages)


and probably a stupid/rookie question, but what is 10c?

[Masu485]

I thought so, but Lt's reply had me questioning the strategy because I actually am losing my mind from it. Last weekend the theory got waxed. Like one win out of four or five. (at least from my interpretation of the SI pages)


and probably a stupid/rookie question, but what is 10c?

yeah, i know what you mean, i find it works less than it fails. but it should work in the long term i'm guessing. if you went with the ideal criteria for RLMs, you'd only have gone 0-4 (which is still bad, but trying to track all the smart money would have put you at 2-9 approx.). I'll try and give it a shot for small money, maybe i'll post some daily plays that fit the ideal criteria.

and sorry, i'm probably the only one that uses that, but 10c is 10 cent line move, ex -120 to -130

[Robust]

I thought so, but Lt's reply had me questioning the strategy because I actually am losing my mind from it. Last weekend the theory got waxed. Like one win out of four or five. (at least from my interpretation of the SI pages)


and probably a stupid/rookie question, but what is 10c?

then you are not recognizing the reverse line movements properly.. i can tell you 100% have hit in two weeks in the NFL.. in college, though i have not followed it closely, i know 1 lost that i bet...

Robust

[rossta4i]

sorry guys for jumping in late...I was tryin to figure this stuff out. would rutgers +9.5 and Indiana +8 be plays. Looking at numbers like this is like reading a chinese menu. Rutgers opened at +10 and moved to +9.5 while getting 23% of the bets. Pitt got 73% of the bets but the line moved down. Do I sound like I'm making sense here? I just got lost typin this. Sorry guys