When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[McRich]

Thanks Rich

Looks like you are having a good NBA season so far l7ustin.

[arpeggiomeister]

No.

If you don't want to handicap and want to play strictly line moves, there are three scenarios:

1 - The most common is that the line moves in the same direction as where the money goes. Using your example, Denver opens at -3, gets 75% of all the bets and moves to -6.
In this case, since the move is expected, we do nothing.

2 - There is heavy action on one side yet the line does not move. In this case, bet the team that has the lower percentage of bets. So if Denver opens at -3 and stays at -3, if 75% of bets are on Denver, bet the other side. If 75% of bets are on the other side, bet on Denver.

3 - The Holy Grail for Smart Money followers is reverse line movement. This is when the line moves in the OPPOSITE direction of the side that has the higher pct. of bets. Following these moves is profitable in the long run, and is one of the reasons I love ARIZONA tomorrow. So if Denver opens at -6, 65% of the bets are on Denver and yet they drop to -3, the opponent is a strong play.

LT thanks for posting this brother!!! Usually I get on this site and somebody posts a pick and one handful of people agree and another handful bash the guy, and I end up not learning anything useful.

What you are talking about here is something similar to what I use in stock trading. Insider trading is illegal, but only a moron would believe that it doesn't occur. You can track insider trading in biotechs by following which drug companies are ready for level 3 FDA approval. What happens is there will be giant volume spikes in the stock before any news is released to the public. If you are savvy enough at watching these volume spikes you can find out a drug has been FDA approved before the public knows... ...aka you make money off the insiders without actually being one.

Perhaps I am the only fruitball that sees the connection, but it's cool.

[McRich]

RLM wager on 11/22/08. NBA Clippers +4.

[smitch124]

RLM wager on 11/22/08. NBA Clippers +4.

Did you have to hold your nose when you bet that?

[LT Profits]

Did you have to hold your nose when you bet that?

That is a common occurence with RLM plays.

Let's go Detroit Lions!

[yisman]

Lions and Clippers.

I'm thinking about taking Oklahoma.

I want to bet Pittsburgh, though, not Cincinnati.

Indiana got absolutely trashed, so that's a RLM play that didn't work out today.

[Masu485]

Indiana got absolutely trashed, so that's a RLM play that didn't work out today.

i was wondering if anyone noticed that there's RLM on a lot of the same teams?

for example, i've seen Indiana as an RLM play before twice i think, and in NHL Toronto ALWAYS seems to be the RLM play. i know there's more but that's all i can think of off the top of my head.

[McRich]

Went 2-2 in RLM today. Winners - NCAAF Oklahoma and Cincinnati. Losers - NBA Clippers and NCAAF Indiana.

Overall record is 8-5.

The breakdown of RLM that I have wagered on per sport so far is:

NBA 3-2
NCAABB 3-0
NCAAF 2-3

[McRich]

i was wondering if anyone noticed that there's RLM on a lot of the same teams?

for example, i've seen Indiana as an RLM play before twice i think, and in NHL Toronto ALWAYS seems to be the RLM play. i know there's more but that's all i can think of off the top of my head.

Yeah, I remember Indiana as an RLM before and they were an underdog and won outright.

[McRich]

Did you have to hold your nose when you bet that?

Yeah, sometimes you are just thinking, "WTF am I doing".

[yisman]

RLM had a pretty good day in college, from the looks of it.

[patsfan2727]

i was wondering if anyone noticed that there's RLM on a lot of the same teams?

for example, i've seen Indiana as an RLM play before twice i think, and in NHL Toronto ALWAYS seems to be the RLM play. i know there's more but that's all i can think of off the top of my head.

Oakland Raiders qualified a few times I believe

[McRich]

My NFL RLM wagers so far today.

Seahawks +3.5
Cardinals +3.5
Raiders +9
Titans -5

[LT Profits]

I see you are including 1/2 point moves. Records are based on one-point moves, and those are all I look at expect for the 1/2 point on or off 3.

[spongerat]

so who qualifies this week then? its painfl to bet on detroit and/or seahawks

[spmurph]

I went with the top three RLM plays in NCAAF and went 3-0 yesterday. I had CIN -6, Wash St. +7, and SD St. +10. I forget what the total movement was on each game, but it was at leat a point. If I remember correctly, on CIN, there was a 2-point swing.

[LT Profits]

I don't see ANY one-point qualifiers right now, and the two 1/2-point on or off 3 quailifiers McRich already listed (Cards, Seattle).

FYI, the Cardinals are my POW anyway, but I did not bet Seattle. Still, those of you that do nothing else but follow RLM blindly should bet Seahawks because if you take that route, you'd have to play them all unless you have another filter. And no, the fact that Seattle sucks is not a filter.

[spmurph]

so who qualifies this week then? its painfl to bet on detroit and/or seahawks

No games. There are only 1/2 point RLMs this week. DAL/SF has a 1 point RLM, but only 55% on DAL.

[LT Profits]

No games. There are only 1/2 point RLMs this week. DAL/SF has a 1 point RLM, but only 55% on DAL.

I actually like 49ers, but it has nothing to do with RLM.

[McRich]

I see you are including 1/2 point moves. Records are based on one-point moves, and those are all I look at expect for the 1/2 point on or off 3.

Yeah, I am wagering 1/2 units on these plays. Part of my process right now is to experiment with the RLM. No matter how I wager on the NFL, it is always tough to win in the NFL.

[Mr KLC]

Would this system work on the O/U also? I've noticed 4 1:00EST games where the majority of the bets are going one way, and the line is going the other way.

[LT Profits]

Would this system work on the O/U also? I've noticed 4 1:00EST games where the majority of the bets are going one way, and the line is going the other way.

RLM has SUCKED historically with totals except for NHL.

[yisman]

Yeah, don't use it for O/Us. Not enough action.

I'm taking the Cardinals AND the Seahawks. Go NFC West!

[louisvillekid]

agree that o/u's for RLM have sucked

i just randomly watch them , i know yesterday in college i seen 4 that had high % on over yet total had dropped.

AF/TCU
Boise St/Nev
UTep/Hou
UCF/Mem

[BigDeal]

RLM 1 pt or more and 60 % or higher.

DET, STL, and Oak not sure why LT said no teams this week I see 3. Also .5 pt movers AZ, SEA.

[pirate sports]

lt,
so according to the movement.
houston, kc, tenn., and atl. are the plays today.

[yisman]

you must be using a different service.

[pirate sports]

looking at sports.com

[Capybara]

Love this thread!! THANKS A LOT to you guys who got it going for showing the rest of us this strategy! I won yesterday with Wash St., Penn St., and OK based on this!

But one question that's still stumping me, Help! :

So at Sports.com, if I'm reading it correctly, it shows the percentage of betting on each side AND the percentage of Money on each side... The way I understand RLM, if most people are betting one side but the line still moves the other way, it's because the big-money sharps are betting the other side, thus the books move the line to keep the money even... But WHY does it still move WHEN THE MONEY IS ALSO on the side most people are betting? I don't get this part? For instance,

2008-11-23 OAKLAND RAIDERS 43 42.5 35% 32% 75% Click Here
16:05 EST DENVER BRONCOS -10 -9.0 65% 68% 25%

If 68% of the MONEY is on the Broncos side, how does the line still move in favor of the Raiders??

Other than this piece, I think I get it, but please help, cuz this part confuses the heck out of me! THANK YOU!!

[McRich]

I am on the Timberwolves today +10 for an NBA RLM wager.

[Masu485]

i was wondering if anyone noticed that there's RLM on a lot of the same teams?

for example, i've seen Indiana as an RLM play before twice i think, and in NHL Toronto ALWAYS seems to be the RLM play. i know there's more but that's all i can think of off the top of my head.

just to add to my list, it seems that ST LOUIS RAMS are also an RLM play every week.

[LT Profits]

Guys, I use Sports Insights as my source and Pinny as my triggering book.

[Capybara]

RLM plays are KILLING me today!!!!!! (Rams, Lions... plus near-RLM, Niners and Titans)

[LT Profits]

Love this thread!! THANKS A LOT to you guys who got it going for showing the rest of us this strategy! I won yesterday with Wash St., Penn St., and OK based on this!

But one question that's still stumping me, Help! :

So at Sports.com, if I'm reading it correctly, it shows the percentage of betting on each side AND the percentage of Money on each side... The way I understand RLM, if most people are betting one side but the line still moves the other way, it's because the big-money sharps are betting the other side, thus the books move the line to keep the money even... But WHY does it still move WHEN THE MONEY IS ALSO on the side most people are betting? I don't get this part? For instance,

2008-11-23 OAKLAND RAIDERS 43 42.5 35% 32% 75% Click Here
16:05 EST DENVER BRONCOS -10 -9.0 65% 68% 25%

If 68% of the MONEY is on the Broncos side, how does the line still move in favor of the Raiders??

Other than this piece, I think I get it, but please help, cuz this part confuses the heck out of me! THANK YOU!!

It is not 68% of the money, it is 68% of the total bets.

Thus, the amount bet by the 32% exceeds the amount bet by the 68%, which is why it would be considered a sharp move.

[LT Profits]

RLM 1 pt or more and 60 % or higher.

DET, STL, and Oak not sure why LT said no teams this week I see 3. Also .5 pt movers AZ, SEA.

Rams and Raiders became qualiifiers after my post.

Lions did NOT qualify, as Pinny held line at +9.

So RLM is only 0-1 today with Raiders pending.