When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[LT Profits]

ok, one FINAL question, if the line stays the same, you take the smaller percentage right? but to what point would you suggest doing this? plausible in a 60-40 scenario, or more 70-30? what's the minimum you'd do it on?

and lastly, to get things straight, half point moves are a no play? less than 60% reverse line movements are no plays also?

I'd be more interested in reverse moves, but if a line is not moving depite heavy action, there is nothing wrong with waiting until just before gametime, just to see if it moves at all. Same thing with games that reverse move just a half-point, wait as long as possible to see if there is another move.

[LT Profits]

The exceptoin where I bet half-point moves early is if I get a Green Alert from SI.

[Masu485]

ok, wouldn't Arkansas for tomorrow be a good play? even though it doesn't fit the criteria?

it went from +11 to +7! and with 43% of bets. 40% flat would be the ideal maximum, but couldn't this qualify also?

[Masu485]

ok, wouldn't Arkansas for tomorrow be a good play? even though it doesn't fit the criteria?

it went from +11 to +7! and with 43% of bets. 40% flat would be the ideal maximum, but couldn't this qualify also?

ah nevermind, i'll just stick to what im doing, i don't want to end up playing 9 or 10 games or anything

[ZBOIZ]

ok, wouldn't Arkansas for tomorrow be a good play? even though it doesn't fit the criteria?

it went from +11 to +7! and with 43% of bets. 40% flat would be the ideal maximum, but couldn't this qualify also?

In order to hit a good percentage of your plays you have to look at what LT said!!

For example two plays for tommorrow is...

Arkansas and Ole Miss

[mehdim]

my sunday picks for NFL is

bufallo bills -1

minosota wikings +3

baltimore ravens +3

49 ers +10.5

oakland raiders +3

[mehdim]

Nhl 0-1

[mehdim]

for NCF my picks is

rutgers -1.5

syracuse +24

colorado state +22

texas a & m +20.5

baylor +17

indiana +15

new mexico +1.5

south carolina +2

[Masu485]

for NCF my picks is

rutgers -1.5

syracuse +24

colorado state +22

texas a & m +20.5

baylor +17

indiana +15

new mexico +1.5

south carolina +2

i had all of those too, including Duke +3... it was a very bad day.

[DeluxeLiner]

The Bears-Vikings game is interesting regarding the line. Although my initial feeling is to go with the Bears, the line movement would tell me otherwise.

The Bears have consistently gotten more action that the Vikings and overall are getting 71% of the action....however the line has stayed the same nevertheless.

This seems like LT's point #2 on his three points for analyzing the betting public and bookies.

[LT Profits]

The picks that mehdim posted actually did better than my brutal 1-6-1 day.

[mehdim]

NCAAF reocrd 2-5-0

NFL record 3-2

NHl record 0-1

[lovetobet]

LTProfits,

Did a bunch of reading and tracked stuff this weekend, definitely tough in NCAAF this weekend, not as bad in the NFL but still not great. Those are the breaks of betting.

So a couple of follow up questions, which probably apply more to daily sports. In looking at hockey lines tonight on Sports Insight I saw a couple of clear reverse line movements (using CRIS).

1. Here’s an example:
Pittsburgh/Boston - O 5.5 -120 - This line moved to O 5.5 -110 with 68% of the bets coming on the over, this was about 30 minutes before game time. Thus a 10 cent reverse line movement (with no green alert). When I checked Pinnacle (also 30 minutes before game time) it had opened at O 5.5 -115 and moved to O 5.5 -122. Thus one book had a reverse line movement and the other had regular line movement. I have seen this many times and obviously books will differ but in seeing this with 2 key books (CRIS & Pinnacle) I was wondering what you do?

Do you stay away from this game? Or do you just assume normal money is coming in at Pinnacle and smart money is being played at CRIS and go with a play?

2. A follow up on this:

The line at CRIS really moved in the last ½ hour and ended up at O 5.5 -135 = no reverse line movement. If you had been watching this all day and saw the reverse line movement (30 minutes before the puck drop) but did not bet it at that point and saw these final #’s right before game time (knowing there had been a 10 cent reverse line movement 30 minutes before), would you bet it?

3. From what I have read using Pinnacle and CRIS is kind of like looking at the gold standard, do you believe that is true? Or are you looking at other specific books? What book(s) are the most important to you when analyzing this type of information?

Thanks again for all the help. GL tonight everyone!!

[LT Profits]

I use Pinnacle only for my own discoveries and only use other books when I get alerted. So in this case, since there was no alert and the move matched the money at Pinny, I would have done nothing.

[lovetobet]

LT thanks.

Would you mind addressing question #2 (just assume it says Pinnacle instead of CRIS). I'm more interested about how you would deal with that particular scenario.

GL

[LT Profits]

Oh I bet as soon as the move is made in an attempt to beat the closing line. So if the line then turns around on me, oh well. I just eat the bet and hope for the best.

[lovetobet]

Nice, that's what I was thinking.

Thanks again man! GL tonight.

[diogee]

Nice article LT...any idea if the win % and units are based on the opening # or closing number? Either way a great tool to use when capping.

[LT Profits]

Nice article LT...any idea if the win % and units are based on the opening # or closing number? Either way a great tool to use when capping.

Neither.

Based on lines when the bets were actually placed. Bets were placed at first reverse move after a sufficient number of bets were made on the game. What constitutes "sufficient" varies from sport to sport. I got the records from SI.

[diogee]

Interesting...so basically say an NFL game opens at -5 and has 65% on that side after 12,000 bets and the line has dropped to -4. So the bet is placed at that point and used for the record regardless as to where the spread closes?

[McRich]

OK, thanks for the answers to my earlier questions. I am still trying to understand the reverse line movement. Here is a scenario.

Let's say it was a few minutes before game time and these are the stats for this weeks Northwestern/Indiana game.

NW opened at -9.5, closed at -8 and had 65% of the bets. Which side is the sharp bet and why? Thanks.

[diogee]

OK, thanks for the answers to my earlier questions. I am still trying to understand the reverse line movement. Here is a scenario.

Let's say it was a few minutes before game time and these are the stats for this weeks Northwestern/Indiana game.

NW opened at -9.5, closed at -8 and had 65% of the bets. Which side is the sharp bet and why? Thanks.

Indiana because the 35% of the bets that were on Indiana represented a larger amount of money than the 65% on NW...thus the line dropped 1.5 points to give worse odds on Ind and draw in more money on NW to balance the action.

**Might not make sense right now. Been up 36 hours.

[manofmyth]

Or you could put it in laymans terms. Ask your friends who know football, occasional bettors, habitual bettors. ask them who they like. if a lot of them like a certain team, check the live lines. see what the game opened at and what it is before gametime. see where the money is at. if it's where a majority of your friends like, take the other team. it's just a small synopsis of average bettors against the live betting lines. if your joe public friends like one team i.e. Denver this past monday night, and the money is with Denver, yet the line never moved. then take the other team. now, don't use this for NCAA, too many variables play into line movement with NCAA Football. however, in NFL, it will give you more insight if you are on the fence.

[LT Profits]

Interesting...so basically say an NFL game opens at -5 and has 65% on that side after 12,000 bets and the line has dropped to -4. So the bet is placed at that point and used for the record regardless as to where the spread closes?

Right, with the intent of hopefully beating the closing line.

[LT Profits]

OK, thanks for the answers to my earlier questions. I am still trying to understand the reverse line movement. Here is a scenario.

Let's say it was a few minutes before game time and these are the stats for this weeks Northwestern/Indiana game.

NW opened at -9.5, closed at -8 and had 65% of the bets. Which side is the sharp bet and why? Thanks.

Well technically, the sharp play was Indiana +8.5. Waiting until the last minute is not recommended because the line could move 5 or 6 points from open to close sometimes. You should bet as soon as there is a reverse move of one point, which would have been +8.5 in this case, with the intent of beating the closing line, which you would have done here by a half-point.

[smitch124]

Do you ever cheat on the # of bets when a 1 point move has been made. Lets say you're getting a total of a 1 point move across the board and show 8500 bets made on the game, do you wait?

[McRich]

OK LT, if this game were getting ready to be played today, is this a scenario for a "Holy Grail" reverse line movement.

Oklahoma vs. Kansas St.

OK opened at -18.5 and closes at -19.5. 85% is on OK.

Would the sharp "Holy Grail" bet be on Kansas St. in this scenario?

Thanks for replying to my questions everybody. I appreciate the feedback. I have had some great success in football this year, but I am always looking to educate myself for improvement.

[yisman]

the line moved towards OK. If the line had moved to 17.5, for example, it could be a Holy Grail pick.

Holy Grail is typically only used for extreme cases where the public is pounding one side and the line moves the other way.

In your scenario, the line moved with the action, albeit only a point.

[ryanXL977]

i can name 10000 games that people pounded before kickoff or first pitch and the fav lost. happens all the time
money movement doesnt affect games, unless you think games are fixed, then dont bet

[roasthawg]

i can name 10000 games that people pounded before kickoff or first pitch and the fav lost. happens all the time
money movement doesnt affect games, unless you think games are fixed, then dont bet

They're not talking about it affecting the games...they're talking about following the big bettors with the hopes that they're better cappers than themselves.

[ryanXL977]

oh, well thats what i get for posting without reading

[McRich]

They're not talking about it affecting the games...they're talking about following the big bettors with the hopes that they're better cappers than themselves.

This is exactly what I am trying to accomplish.

[McRich]

the line moved towards OK. If the line had moved to 17.5, for example, it could be a Holy Grail pick.

Holy Grail is typically only used for extreme cases where the public is pounding one side and the line moves the other way.

In your scenario, the line moved with the action, albeit only a point.

So what you are saying is my pick of Kansas St. is the square bet in this scenario? I need to look for the opposite scenario for a "Holy Grail" bet.

[LT Profits]

Ryan, you are missing the point, we are focusing on REVERSE line moves, not ALL line moves.

[ryanXL977]

lt,
i get that now. i didnt read anything but the headline
my bad. 1000 apologies to all.

go phils