When the spread doesn't move, follow the money

[keystonekid]

Nothing because it is only 54% and the line move matches the money.

Are you saying don't bet on it? Or, would you suggest going NC State +11 Over 48

[yisman]

LT, you should post a daily thread breaking this stuff down for baseball, hockey, and football.

Great info.

[yisman]

Are you saying don't bet on it? Or, would you suggest going NC State +11 Over 48

he's saying no bet.

[SexyMit]

LT you are giving away the HOLY GRAIL secret... lol. If anyone of the major books is reading this they are so hateing you right now. lol but yes I have been following line movement the last 2 or 3 seasons and lets just put it this way. I am not hurting for extra money. And honestly it is something that I kinda found out by myself watching lines and line movements and the outcomes of the games. I read about it 2 seasons ago someone said it, can't remember who but if the money is going one way and the line the other then you go the way the line is going.

LT have something else for you. With all of your stats and percentages cause I know that you are a numbers freak. How much does the percentage go up and the games hit on PRIMETIME games. Games that are on TV compared to those that are not? I bet they win more then the games that are not on TV. If you could find that in your billion stats when you get a chance I would be intrested to see how different they are.

[EBDOG]

yeah does that work if the money is on the underdog and their is a reverse line movement

[keystonekid]

OK. I will look at BYU/TCU. How about this one?

[yisman]

According to the theory, TCU is the play tonight. Big time Holy Grail play.

[durito]

Chasing steam after a 6 pt move.

Great idea.

[LT Profits]

Chasing steam after a 6 pt move.

Great idea.

Actually, key for football is catching it after one point move midweek and then beating closing line by five points

[LT Profits]

Other sports are more of a judgement call as to whether or not you think there are enough bets placed to make midday move meaningful. That is where Sports Insights becomes helpful with their alerts.

[yisman]

On ESPN.com's Streak for the Cash, the game is listed as "warm" (which means thousands of people are on it) and over 91% are going BYU. That's straight up.

[durito]

Actually, key for football is catching it after one point move midweek and then beating closing line by five points

i would say key would be causing the one point move in the first place

[LT Profits]

LT you are giving away the HOLY GRAIL secret... lol. If anyone of the major books is reading this they are so hateing you right now. lol but yes I have been following line movement the last 2 or 3 seasons and lets just put it this way. I am not hurting for extra money. And honestly it is something that I kinda found out by myself watching lines and line movements and the outcomes of the games. I read about it 2 seasons ago someone said it, can't remember who but if the money is going one way and the line the other then you go the way the line is going.

LT have something else for you. With all of your stats and percentages cause I know that you are a numbers freak. How much does the percentage go up and the games hit on PRIMETIME games. Games that are on TV compared to those that are not? I bet they win more then the games that are not on TV. If you could find that in your billion stats when you get a chance I would be intrested to see how different they are.

Note from my answer to durito that summarising my plays late in the day is too late.

[LT Profits]

i would say key would be causing the one point move in the first place

Of course that would be ideal, but you can also still get original line at slow moving book too after initial one-point move.

[Masu485]

so, for example, does anyone know what the NHL plays would be tonight, based on this?

i don't even know where to find the correct movements

[EBDOG]

Candidates for this week so far are..

2008-10-19 PITTSBURGH STEELERS -9.5 -9.5 39% 10% 82% Click Here
13:00 EST CINCINNATI BENGALS 37 35.5 61% 90% 18%

2008-10-19 BALTIMORE RAVENS 34.5 36.5 48% 87% 85% Click Here
13:00 EST MIAMI DOLPHINS -3 -3.0 52% 13% 15%

2008-10-19 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 39.5 38.0 11% 97% 43% Click Here
13:00 EST CHICAGO BEARS -3 -3.0 89% 3% 57%

2008-10-19 DETROIT LIONS 47 46.5 22% 97% 3% Click Here
16:05 EST HOUSTON TEXANS -9 -9.0 78% 3% 97%

2008-10-19 CLEVELAND BROWNS 42.5 42.0 63% 98% 75% Click Here
16:15 EST WASHINGTON REDSKINS -7 -7.0 37% 2% 25%

2008-10-19 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 39.0 38.0 37% 54% 42% Click Here
20:15 EST TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -10.5 -10.5 63% 46% 58%


if these don't move, i will be playing all of them.. but remember to check game day before you bet just in case they move..

Robust

Edit: and a Holy grail appears this week as well (reverse line movement)..
2008-10-19 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -1 45.0 81%off71%
13:00 EST BUFFALO BILLS 46.5 PK 19% 29%

are you looking at totals ?

[Mark Shark]

Let's be honest. One or two books dictate every other books lines. I guarantee you if Pinnacle moves there odds or lines everyone else moves too.

[melia26]

Reverse?

A question about this reverse line movement in another scenario. If 60% or above money is on a dog, and the favorite jumps 1 point, does that mean to take the favorite? IE team A road dog has 65%, team B home fave has 35%, team B home fave line jumps from -2 to -3. Thanks in advance!

[yisman]

TCU worked out. Holy Grail comes through again.

[Masu485]

A question about this reverse line movement in another scenario. If 60% or above money is on a dog, and the favorite jumps 1 point, does that mean to take the favorite? IE team A road dog has 65%, team B home fave has 35%, team B home fave line jumps from -2 to -3. Thanks in advance!

this is like one of those concepts in school i think i understand completely, then comes exam time, and i realize i don't understand about 50% of it.

according to your example, yes go on the favorite, but i checked all results for last week's ncaa, and there were about 8 or 9 games i would have put action on, but it would always be on the dog... i haven't actually seen a situation where i'd go for the fav, and i've checked the last 3 weeks for CFB.

so i still don't know if i'm misunderstanding something or if there were actually no plays for favs for that time period.

and lastly, am i correct in stating that there were no plays in NHL tonight, as none of them fit the criteria? no 10 cent move in the ML with at least 60% on the side?

[melia26]

I found an example

VIRGINIA TECH 41.5 41.0 +135 74%
BOSTON COLLEGE -2 -3.0 -155 26%

This is for this week. Thanks for answering, I wasn't sure if this is an example of reverse line movement or not.

[Masu485]

VIRGINIA TECH 41.5 41.0 +135 74%
BOSTON COLLEGE -2 -3.0 -155 26%

This is for this week. Thanks for answering, I wasn't sure if this is an example of reverse line movement or not.

haha, i checked for this week RIGHT after i posted, and saw that same one. i think that counts, but don't know if it's considered a 'holy grail' thing. but it still counts. good find in any case

[DeluxeLiner]

So if we follow this idea of line movement (or non movement) what about the Jets/Raiders game this week. The line has been steady at -3 Jets even though massive action has been on the Jets. The only thing inducing someone to bet the Raiders is that the Jets are getting like -117 to -125 from the original -110.

But really the Raiders??

Can someone explain what is going on here with this game?

[LT Profits]

VIRGINIA TECH 41.5 41.0 +135 74%
BOSTON COLLEGE -2 -3.0 -155 26%

This is for this week. Thanks for answering, I wasn't sure if this is an example of reverse line movement or not.

Yes, it looks like you answered your own question. The reason this picks way more dogs than favorites is because the public picks many more favorites.

[20Four7]

No.

If you don't want to handicap and want to play strictly line moves, there are three scenarios:

1 - The most common is that the line moves in the same direction as where the money goes. Using your example, Denver opens at -3, gets 75% of all the bets and moves to -6.
In this case, since the move is expected, we do nothing.

2 - There is heavy action on one side yet the line does not move. In this case, bet the team that has the lower percentage of bets. So if Denver opens at -3 and stays at -3, if 75% of bets are on Denver, bet the other side. If 75% of bets are on the other side, bet on Denver.


3 - The Holy Grail for Smart Money followers is reverse line movement. This is when the line moves in the OPPOSITE direction of the side that has the higher pct. of bets. Following these moves is profitable in the long run, and is one of the reasons I love ARIZONA tomorrow. So if Denver opens at -6, 65% of the bets are on Denver and yet they drop to -3, the opponent is a strong play.

Number 3 here is huge.. If you do only 1 thing that is it

[mehdim]

hi guys

i have a question

what time before game we must see the line movement?

i mean foreexample 2 or 3 hours before game we must check the line movement or we can check and decide 2 or 3 days before game....

what about the daily games such as NHL NBA and MLB

tanx

[Sforz]

So, the raiders fit this week right?

[Robust]

for both people asking about the Jets/Raiders.

2008-10-19 NEW YORK JETS -3.5 -3.0 97% 67% 63%
16:15 EST OAKLAND RAIDERS 43 41.0 3% 33% 37%

reverse line movement. I would play (and i will if it remains like this) Oak +3 and Oak ML..

Robust

[MonkeyF0cker]

Yes.

[Robust]

hi guys

i have a question

what time before game we must see the line movement?

i mean foreexample 2 or 3 hours before game we must check the line movement or we can check and decide 2 or 3 days before game....

what about the daily games such as NHL NBA and MLB

tanx

i placed some bets on saturday last week and did ok, but the some the lines shifted to where they were supposed to be on sunday, so I lost my parlays..

i, personally, would wait 10 min before kickoff.. but do what feels right to you.. or just don't bet this week, but keep your eye on the lines and see what they do.. try to find a comfortable spot for you to place a bet..

Robust

[MonkeyF0cker]

for both people asking about the Jets/Raiders.

2008-10-19 NEW YORK JETS -3.5 -3.0 97% 67% 63%
16:15 EST OAKLAND RAIDERS 43 41.0 3% 33% 37%

reverse line movement. I would play (and i will if it remains like this) Oak +3 and Oak ML..

Robust

If you're going to play it, why on Earth would you wait?

[DeluxeLiner]

Ok so the sharps are on the Raiders. We determined that. But I dont understand why they are on the Raiders. I know they are at home and all but they are pretty much a big mess and fall apart in games. I am very confused and want to know why me and a lot of the public are being such squares.

[Robust]

If you're going to play it, why on Earth would you wait?

my gut says jets will kill them.. my brain says follow the lines predicitions.. i lean towards my brain.. but i wanna make sure the line doesn't correct itself and i choke..

LOL

as i stated here or in another thread.. my 6+ parlays have not hit lately.. i am going to play cautiously this week to hopefully get 2k+ from $20-$30 bux in parlays.. (yes, i know how bad the odds are) lol

i have done it once every month.. except this past one..

Robust

[LT Profits]

Ok so the sharps are on the Raiders. We determined that. But I dont understand why they are on the Raiders. I know they are at home and all but they are pretty much a big mess and fall apart in games. I am very confused and want to know why me and a lot of the public are being such squares.

Well for one thing, the Jets are simply not good enough to be road favorites. After all, they're 3-2 with the wins coming vs. the Dolphins, who finished 10 yards from pulling the upset at the end of the game, the Cardinals travelling across the country for an early kick-off and the Bengals with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Also, as bad as the Raiders are perceived to be, they did have double-digit leads vs. the Bills on the road and vs. the Chargers here at home, and the Jets are not as good as either of those teams.

Besides, when you consider that Oakland closed as just a seven-point underdog on the road at New Orleans last week, this line seems much closer to where it should be than most people think.

[yisman]

Raiders are generally a good home team.

Definitely stay away from the Jets this week.