on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

**chound** · 05-09-12, 06:08 PM

Originally Posted by J.M. Disciple
I would not start following this system randomly again with out a back test being down at -1 to see how it fairs. It will give a lot more pushes im sure as System integrity has 16% pushes. It will knock off the juice by about 20% though so thats a good thing.

Just dont start betting randomly again other wise your making your mistake all over again. The 1unit per line is probably pretty safe bet instead of 2 units per line. I would suggest keeping the same unit size through out the season though so you have a cushion when bad runs happen like this. Using a percentage instead of being down 15 units you are actually down like 45 units because at the peak it was like +30 units? Thats just a guess I have no idea but you get my point.

Good Luck To those on Philly. Line seems to be dropping.

JMD

I've been following this thread for awhile and just wanted to say after looking at last years results this system is fine. Everything has ups and down just like the stock market. As soon as you have a losing streak and get down a little everyone wants to tweak or jump off board. For those of you that have managed your money properly you should still have a sufficient bankroll to continue with the way it's set up. Even though we think every year should be profitable there's just those years that don't permit it. The thing is to stay consistant and continue what were doing. The money we win wasn't ours originally, but I'll bet most are betting like it was. I'd be willing to bet half those that jumpped ship have doubled up or not followed the guidelines somewhere along the way. I'm still following and waiting for the ship to upright, it is what it is if you want to wager.

**dlunc3** · 05-09-12, 07:48 PM

lee is out already after 6

sucks this was his first game back.... this phills middle relief staff is the worst in the majors.. hopefully they can show some pride tonight vs this garbage mets lineup

**eric14tsui** · 05-09-12, 08:02 PM

On3, it seems like we dont have any filtered plays for a while. Is it usual? or when the season goes deeper, we will have more filtered coming up? How many do we have last year? 60?

**juice050** · 05-09-12, 08:08 PM

wow kendrick sucks smh. philly used to be the team to bet with now there the team to fade. they really miss howard and utley.

**daddyv** · 05-09-12, 08:10 PM

i shouldve laid off philly when someone mentioned lee was gonna be pulled off early tonight...i took them at -1 so i really hope they hold on atleast for a fukin push

**jturn49** · 05-09-12, 08:11 PM

Giving up these leads every night. Ouch

**juice050** · 05-09-12, 08:14 PM

games over if mets go up a few runs. philly just sucks seriously.

**dlunc3** · 05-09-12, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by juice050

wow kendrick sucks smh. philly used to be the team to bet with now there the team to fade. they really miss howard and utley.

its not even that... i wish it was... its the middle relief... all 5 guys that they used last yr are injured/gone/lost all confidence... its sad to watch

**jturn49** · 05-09-12, 08:15 PM

time for this b lineup to get us back in it.

**juice050** · 05-09-12, 08:16 PM

ok only 1 run yall its not that bad. phewww i layed off this c bet but i want yall to win this bet. goodluck. lets hope philly can score some runs.

**xgame** · 05-09-12, 08:32 PM

oh well gm over guys

**oklahoma** · 05-09-12, 08:32 PM

Well the way the past 2 games have gone the chances of philly coming back and winning by 2 will take a miracle. New series tomorrow, filtered too...RedSox woo hoo

**juice050** · 05-09-12, 08:38 PM

boston sucks cant believe they will be a play again.

**Not-A-Kid** · 05-09-12, 08:39 PM

That was a nice inning.

**juice050** · 05-09-12, 08:48 PM

i wonder how many trolls will come in just to bash the system tonight? anyone got the odds on the over under on trolls?

**Douchebag50** · 05-09-12, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by juice050

boston sucks cant believe they will be a play again.

Can't wait to see how many people will get burned on the BOSOX series..I'm playing Cleveland, Cleveland has the edge on every WHIP matchup except tomorrows game although Becket gives way too many fly balls, and since they'll be playing at Fenway that is bad news for Boston...going to be playing the +1.5 line all 3 games and the price won't be much higher than playing the -170 line they'll be charging for Sox...

**moshi** · 05-09-12, 09:15 PM

I told you guys before, you should play the underdog for the first game in a series and then the fave thereafter. Then you won't have to go through an entire series loss.

**alexknyc** · 05-09-12, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by juice050

i wonder how many trolls will come in just to bash the system tonight? anyone got the odds on the over under on trolls?

Do trolls have poor money management or do people with poor money management become trolls?

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-09-12, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by chound

I've been following this thread for awhile and just wanted to say after looking at last years results this system is fine. Everything has ups and down just like the stock market. As soon as you have a losing streak and get down a little everyone wants to tweak or jump off board. For those of you that have managed your money properly you should still have a sufficient bankroll to continue with the way it's set up. Even though we think every year should be profitable there's just those years that don't permit it. The thing is to stay consistant and continue what were doing. The money we win wasn't ours originally, but I'll bet most are betting like it was. I'd be willing to bet half those that jumpped ship have doubled up or not followed the guidelines somewhere along the way. I'm still following and waiting for the ship to upright, it is what it is if you want to wager.

last year was fine and if the system was back tested only 1 year and that was the base of our future success not many would be jumping ship. However, in 2007 this system lost around 40-70units no matter how you managed your money wether it be labby or martingale. There was just no saving that system for that year. I think that is a big factor to why so many are jumping ship because of future results.

With lack of previous back tested years many of us believed based on last years results 1% as a unit size would do fine. Now it seems that a stagnant unit size with a starting line of 1% instead of 2% would fair much better. Its ok to have 2 units on the line if you have a 200 unit bankroll. All depends on how you want to look at it.

Darkmatter
Thank you for your back test. You do all your research very fast it seems I appreciate it as do many others in this thread im sure.

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-09-12, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by alexknyc

Do trolls have poor money management or do people with poor money management become trolls?

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-09-12, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by moshi

I told you guys before, you should play the underdog for the first game in a series and then the fave thereafter. Then you won't have to go through an entire series loss.

So your suggesting for all the A bets we fade our team? If the favorite wins then continue betting the underdog? I hope you realize A bets win 60+% for this system so you are saying we should take the 40% + odds on the A bets?

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-09-12, 09:37 PM

Darkmatter

you posted the -1RL record and also the 1st 5 innings record. Do you know if playing the .500 Filter (theory) would make a difference in that as well? I really like that filter btw. I think it will give us higher juice on some games, but if it provides us with cleared lines on a consistent basis im in. For now im just spectating until a legit back test is done.

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-09-12, 09:40 PM

Originally posted by eric14tsui

On3, it seems like we dont have any filtered plays for a while. Is it usual? or when the season goes deeper, we will have more filtered coming up? How many do we have last year? 60?

last year was 63-0 based on on3's back test. Thelimit has it at 63-1 based on opening lines. So all depends if you do back test based on line movement or the opening lines. That is about the only part of the system that seems legit over a 10 year back test though. Filtered plays do seem to win much more consistently.

We can just tweak this system with a few filters and next season this thread will be alive again and hopefully with a nice profit.

.500 filter
o/u 8 filter?

seems like the lower the o/u the less chance we have at winning. As on3 mentioned once our team goes down with a low o/u say (6) then there is a very unlikely chance the team comes back to win based on the volatility.

**Nova99** · 05-09-12, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by darkmatter117

One thing that would be interesting is to see how the system would do if we only bet the first 5 innings ML. We would have won both bets on the Phillies so far. Boston would have won the A and pushed (I suppose that's what happens in the event of a tie on those bets) in the C bet. The Giants and Tigers lost all three games.

The drawback would be that there might be series that win over 9 innings but lose over 5. I've never placed a first 5 bet, but it doesn't look like the juice would be all that different -- maybe +/- 5 cents. The advantage is that we'd be dependent on the starting pitcher, the one who most influenced the opening line, and not those professional amateurs they call relief pitchers.

Yea but you are likely betting on your team to score a run more than the other team in the first five because the lines are usually +.5 -.5. You can prevent a bullpen meltdown but having a good pitcher is no indication he will get run support. If you think of the PHI v SF pitchers duel if PHI was the fav you would lose since it was 0-0, same situation last night with LAD v SF where SF was 2-1 after 5 you would again lose. It wouldve worked in this set of games but maybe in another set of wins from the past this wouldve failed.

**SlickRick1382** · 05-09-12, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by Nova99

Yea but you are likely betting on your team to score a run more than the other team in the first five because the lines are usually +.5 -.5. You can prevent a bullpen meltdown but having a good pitcher is no indication he will get run support. If you think of the PHI v SF pitchers duel if PHI was the fav you would lose since it was 0-0, same situation last night with LAD v SF where SF was 2-1 after 5 you would again lose. It wouldve worked in this set of games but maybe in another set of wins from the past this wouldve failed.

Problem is the heavy juice for First Five Innings. I checked on the Phillies since I read that Cliff Lee was only being allowed 80-90 pitches tonight and it was still at -190 which became a no play for me on both the FF and the ML for the game.

Guess the FF could be useful in some situations but certainly doesn't reduce the heavy chalk we're paying ...

**Nova99** · 05-09-12, 10:22 PM

the irony is the fact the first half lines with the heavy juice were in a way set properly since the phillies won the first 5 in all 3 games, never even trailed...

**WVU9494** · 05-09-12, 10:41 PM

Put $1200 in my account to play the c game and lost that also. Almost 10k clean out in 2 weeks

**thelimit0310** · 05-09-12, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

last year was fine and if the system was back tested only 1 year and that was the base of our future success not many would be jumping ship. However, in 2007 this system lost around 40-70units no matter how you managed your money wether it be labby or martingale. There was just no saving that system for that year. I think that is a big factor to why so many are jumping ship because of future results.

My backtests are only for the filtered version, but 2007 was the only season in 8 years. That's a 12.5% chance per season, which will go down even further if this season turns around. Point being there are very few (if any) systems that are perfect season to season, if a system can only go slightly negative (4/2 was -9u) once every 8 years then that's a very good system.

**jcygts6** · 05-09-12, 10:51 PM

Wow glad i didnt reload my account 2 weeks ago or i would have cleaned myself out also

**knugen** · 05-09-12, 11:06 PM

Mm, thats a tough night.. On to the lovely redsox tonight again

**darkmatter117** · 05-09-12, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Darkmatter

you posted the -1RL record and also the 1st 5 innings record. Do you know if playing the .500 Filter (theory) would make a difference in that as well? I really like that filter btw. I think it will give us higher juice on some games, but if it provides us with cleared lines on a consistent basis im in. For now im just spectating until a legit back test is done.

That's one of many hypotheses I'm testing. I'm convinced that many of these series losses are going to turn out to have had some factor in common. The trick is going to be finding a factor that eliminates some losses but doesn't eliminate 10x as many wins. I don't know if that factor exists.

**sstrunks52005** · 05-09-12, 11:43 PM

thank god for nba still or I'd be in the hole with you all.
Dunno if it's a good idea to continue a system that backs so many teams that were good last year to shit this year

**Ghenghis Kahn** · 05-09-12, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by WVU9494

Put $1200 in my account to play the c game and lost that also. Almost 10k clean out in 2 weeks

take a break man. why are you betting so much anyway? wait until a filter play comes around and reload your account then.

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-09-12, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by darkmatter117

That's one of many hypotheses I'm testing. I'm convinced that many of these series losses are going to turn out to have had some factor in common. The trick is going to be finding a factor that eliminates some losses but doesn't eliminate 10x as many wins. I don't know if that factor exists.

I think the losses have the following in common:

1. Over-rated big name teams that the public loves
2. Injuries

and the biggest issue:
3. Awful bullpens.

We would be absolutely insane to put money on the red sox this weekend. They are just so terrible.

I think what I'm going to do is add an extra 2-4 columns (more Xs) onto the labby lines. They are currently way too high right now. I'm going to try to climb back up to even and then bail out.

**knugen** · 05-10-12, 12:16 AM

What is this bullpen?