on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[oklahoma]

40cent drop, Philly down to -165 wtf

[on3]

rough, rough series with BOS. still cant believe the bot of the 16th. hopefully the (A) bets will start to pick up, with a .500 record the dogs are ruling game 1 of these series and are keeping the lines fat. conversely, it means that the books will begin to correct the market and some of the teams that qualified earlier, wont qualify now, and vice versa. i expect the (A) bets to be hitting around 60-65% which means over the next 40 series i expect them to hit around 28-12.

ystem record 36-3-0; 9-0-0
Units -5.5
1 unit = $20

5/7

#40 -- ny mets @ PHI -167 (A) -- o/u 6.5
#41 -- san fran @ LAD -145 (A) -- o/u 6.5

Game 1 win = 20-19; 7-2
Game 2 win = 14-5; 2-0
Game 3 win = 2-3; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

25-25-95-108
x-x-80-46
80-80-76-114

reshuffle

65-65-55-68
x-x-60-66
85-85-86-94

Labby Line (filter)

10-10-10-10

PHI to win 65
LAD to win 65

[Nino7]

to win

[ifiwaspresident]

As an unexperienced bettor but a mathematically inclined human, this brings home why all of the experienced and successful guys on this forum constantly preach bankroll management. I don't think you need to know much about sports or handicapping to intuitively understand that this system, when adhered to properly, will rarely fail in the long run. I think it fails under two circumstances. First, if you bail out of the system while down. Whether in real estate, equities, or any other speculation-based revenue stream, buy-high and sell-low has a 100% failure rate...and I don't need to backtest to know that. Second is if you fail to manage your bankroll to withstand a catastrophic event. Neither of these circumstances for failure are systemic. They are based on lack of intestinal fortitude or improper bankroll management, both of which are operator errors. This is a strategic betting system, and many of the recent posts indicate a tactical rather than strategic philosophy.

This system provides an open-ended architecture for betting. It is a framework, but if you have situational awareness you can modify some of the parameters as you go to adjust for unexpected events. If you put all of your faith in expected outcomes, you give yourself no room to think clearly and make good decisions when that left hook out of nowhere connects with your chin. Some of you are punch-drunk right now. Step back, take a deep breath, count to ten, and calm yourself. Now look at your labby lines and see what you can do moving forward to recover...and remember to think strategically. Look over the horizon for your solution. For me, I am going to split the overall BOS series loss figures into equal thirds and apply it to the first line. I am going to selectively engage those figures going forward in action on series I feel have a greater expectation of success. Those series may not be today, tomorrow, or even this month. But the opportunities will present themselves at some point and I will do my best to take advantage of them at that time. This works for me. Maybe you have a different idea that works for you.

My $0.02. Of course, I could be totally wrong and this entire thread is merely a ploy by On3 as a part of his master plan to take over the world.

[darkmatter117]

Thanks, ifiwaspresident. You nailed it and I think all of us probably needed that.

[jcygts6]

Well said

[Alki]

As an unexperienced bettor but a mathematically inclined human, this brings home why all of the experienced and successful guys on this forum constantly preach bankroll management. I don't think you need to know much about sports or handicapping to intuitively understand that this system, when adhered to properly, will rarely fail in the long run. I think it fails under two circumstances. First, if you bail out of the system while down. Whether in real estate, equities, or any other speculation-based revenue stream, buy-high and sell-low has a 100% failure rate...and I don't need to backtest to know that. Second is if you fail to manage your bankroll to withstand a catastrophic event. Neither of these circumstances for failure are systemic. They are based on lack of intestinal fortitude or improper bankroll management, both of which are operator errors. This is a strategic betting system, and many of the recent posts indicate a tactical rather than strategic philosophy.

This system provides an open-ended architecture for betting. It is a framework, but if you have situational awareness you can modify some of the parameters as you go to adjust for unexpected events. If you put all of your faith in expected outcomes, you give yourself no room to think clearly and make good decisions when that left hook out of nowhere connects with your chin. Some of you are punch-drunk right now. Step back, take a deep breath, count to ten, and calm yourself. Now look at your labby lines and see what you can do moving forward to recover...and remember to think strategically. Look over the horizon for your solution. For me, I am going to split the overall BOS series loss figures into equal thirds and apply it to the first line. I am going to selectively engage those figures going forward in action on series I feel have a greater expectation of success. Those series may not be today, tomorrow, or even this month. But the opportunities will present themselves at some point and I will do my best to take advantage of them at that time. This works for me. Maybe you have a different idea that works for you.

My $0.02. Of course, I could be totally wrong and this entire thread is merely a ploy by On3 as a part of his master plan to take over the world.

Thank you. Obviously spoken from one who understands and has been to 'School'.

[Wallco99]

Never mind!

[oklahoma]

I really don't get why everyone is jumping off bridges.

Where did you get this from? In the past few pages, aside from a couple trolls, no one is bashing the system or hardly close to "jumping off bridges". Most if not all of the negative posts were directed at the RedSox.

[Wallco99]

Where did you get this from? In the past few pages, aside from a couple trolls, no one is bashing the system or hardly close to "jumping off bridges". Most if not all of the negative posts were directed at the RedSox.

You're right, I edited. Was just the troll.

[Nino7]

lol

[Gndias]

relax people,we all know them trolls ain't making no money,that's why they mad ,those trolls are

[volkmannthad]

Does the massivep hiladelphia line movement scare anyone else?

[SlickRick1382]

Does the massivep hiladelphia line movement scare anyone else?

Just means people see value in the Mets when they were in the +170 range. Doesn't mean they win but there was some value at that number... Don't think it's anything too significant. Although Roy did get rocked last time out so I'm curious as to how he responds.

[dlunc3]

very scary rlm for us....

81% on the Phils and the line has dropped 35 cents,

[dlunc3]

Just means people see value in the Mets when they were in the +170 range. Doesn't mean they win but there was some value at that number... Don't think it's anything too significant. Although Roy did get rocked last time out so I'm curious as to how he responds.

I agree I think doc bounces back strong... seems vegas does not agree though..

[Douchebag50]

Bad coaching

F...g Phyllies...two on, no outs and they don't bunt to get the go ahead runs in scoring position...F...K!!!!

[Gndias]

not liking this....

[AwesomeGuy]

F...g Phyllies...two on, no outs and they don't bunt to get the go ahead runs in scoring position...F...K!!!!

This. Not sure wtf they're doing over there.

[dlunc3]

F...g Phyllies...two on, no outs and they don't bunt to get the go ahead runs in scoring position...F...K!!!!

you dont bunt your cleanup hitter there....

umps blew the call there... called interference on victorino sliding into second to take a run off the board... such a bogus call

[dlunc3]

now that is bad coaching... 2nd and 3rd one out and you let the worst hitter on the team hit... and on top of that, you dont put in a faster runner on third then wiggington?? so bad

[AwesomeGuy]

Ugh we're ******* screwed.

[daddyv]

this is turning out to be very reminiscent of last night....stupid mistakes n blown opportunities ffs

[dlunc3]

this is why charlie should have been forced to retire before this season... third game he has blown in one month of baseball

[AwesomeGuy]

hahahaha wow we run so bad. This is ridiculous.

[Gndias]

we just got fvucked

[daddyv]

well done phillies!!! fukin retards

[The HOFF]

Philadelphia is hot garbage.

[Douchebag50]

FU Phillies, done in by an ex-Red Sox...

[AwesomeGuy]

Just unreal. Playing on crappy over-rated, over-priced teams is killing us. Unfortunately, the Dodgers fall into this category as well.

[WVU9494]

What a disgusting last 10 days. Also had the under in the Philly game. Sickening.

[jcygts6]

brutal run continues.....

I think I should fade myself as soon as I lose a couple games in a row. Seems like everything comes in streaks while betting games.

[Gamble32jn]

Typical Philly!! I am beginning to hate them! Dam I hope LAD cashes

[boycali01]

LAD

[KennyM10]

Another losing night, oh brother!