on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[dlunc3]

to avoid major juice... those of you that bet -1RL, you can also bet the +1RL... just a thought

[alexknyc]

How could it result in more losses? If anything, it would prevent some.

it would be fewer losses but the losses you do get will cost you significantly more. I'm not certain if it works out to a net gain.

[dlunc3]

it appears one of you is talking about -1.5, and the other is talking about +1.5

[Wallco99]

it would be fewer losses but the losses you do get will cost you significantly more. I'm not certain if it works out to a net gain.

Yes, assuming every series loss had at least one wager that required the +1.5 bet, which, as I said earlier, I am not sure of last year's losses, but I doubt every series had these bets. And every one that does hit, is a reversal of 15-20 units on average, how much more would a loss cost you if one of the plays was at + 1.5, maybe 5-7? It's all moot without last year's losses, but this is how I will play the dogs.

[J.M. Disciple]

Yes, assuming every series loss had at least one wager that required the +1.5 bet, which, as I said earlier, I am not sure of last year's losses, but I doubt every series had these bets. And every one that does hit, is a reversal of 15-20 units on average, how much more would a loss cost you if one of the plays was at + 1.5, maybe 5-7? It's all moot without last year's losses, but this is how I will play the dogs.

Are you playing chase A-B-c with this system Wallco or labbying what numbers on3 puts out?

[darkmatter117]

it appears one of you is talking about -1.5, and the other is talking about +1.5

You're right. The backtests I did that suggested we should play the RL on Game 3 was when our team was the favorite. The conclusion was that, in general, if the team is going to win Game 3, they're going to do it by 2+ runs. I'm not sure which post # it was but the data is back in this thread somewhere. My logic, which I believe Mr. limit would agree with, is that the one run doesn't matter much over the long term: If our team is the favorite, we can afford to sacrifice one run and take the -1.5 RL; but if our team is the dog, laying extra juice to get +1.5 RL isn't worth it.

I plan on testing all of this when I have some more time. I'll be sure to let you fellas know what I find.

[Wallco99]

Are you playing chase A-B-c with this system Wallco or labbying what numbers on3 puts out?

I chase everything JM, not fond of labby.

[The HOFF]

MAY 4
Red Sox vs Orioles
Rays vs Athletics
Indians vs Rangers
Tigers vs White Sox
Mariners vs Twins
Mets vs D-Backs
Nationals vs Phillies
Cubs vs Dodgers
Astros vs Cardinals
Pirates vs Reds
Rockies vs Braves
Padres vs Marlins
Giants vs Brewers

[CrazyCarl]

Thanks hoff.

[on3]

System record 34-2-0; 9-0-0
Units +9
1 unit = $20

5/4

#37 -- oakland @ TB -200/+100 (A) -- o/u 7 -- play RL
#38 -- philly @ WAS -205/+115 (A) -- o/u 6.5 -- play RL
#39 -- baltimore @ BOS -162 (A) -- o/u 8.5

Game 1 win = 19-17; 7-2
Game 2 win = 13-4; 2-0
Game 3 win = 2-2; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

35-25-35-45
x-x-20-68
35-35-101-33

shuffle

x-47-47-46
x-x-20-68
55-55-51-43

Labby Line (filter)

10-10-10-10

TB bet 47
WAS bet 47
BOS to win 46

[Taro Punk]

odds of rl not appealing at all.. so as to chase the third time of Giants, the stakes will be almost twice of buying the ml. not worth the risk~

[CrazyCarl]

odds of rl not appealing at all.. so as to chase the third time of Giants, the stakes will be almost twice of buying the ml. not worth the risk~

What?

[WVU9494]

Looking through old posts and saw this. This isn't true one bit, I have been paying these using the martinggale and doing really well.

I think we had this many plays last week right? On3 doesn't make the lines he just follows them. If you put 500 down on each play and do that every day you will lose money by the end of the season. The line makers are smarter then we are. This system wins because we all labby it.

GL

[ghislaine]

Looking through old posts and saw this. This isn't true one bit, I have been paying these using the martinggale and doing really well.

I have to say I prefer labby. Takes the stress and emotion out of it Martingale might work, but the quote says
if You put down 500 everyday. That is flat betting...
If I did not labby, I would martingale. Flat betting is only profitable with real good %....
So I don`t think Martingale was dissed here !!!

[ghislaine]

alright, with You on all 3 on3

[thelimit0310]

Yes, assuming every series loss had at least one wager that required the +1.5 bet, which, as I said earlier, I am not sure of last year's losses, but I doubt every series had these bets. And every one that does hit, is a reversal of 15-20 units on average, how much more would a loss cost you if one of the plays was at + 1.5, maybe 5-7? It's all moot without last year's losses, but this is how I will play the dogs.

In my 8 year backtest, there were 6 series losses with a +RL play in them, of those 6, 5 would have still lost taking the +RL. No where near worth it as I said especially since most of the time taking +RL gives you bad juice.

Note that this is for only the filtered version though I can go back and look at the regular version again as well. Though I already know the results are similar. Play it as you want of course, but this is a play I would not make.

[CrazyCarl]

In my 8 year backtest, there were 6 series losses with a +RL play in them, of those 6, 5 would have still lost taking the +RL. No where near worth it as I said especially since most of the time taking +RL gives you bad juice.

Note that this is for only the filtered version though I can go back and look at the regular version again as well. Though I already know the results are similar. Play it as you want of course, but this is a play I would not make.

Too small of a sample size to say anything for sure.

With that said, I doubt I'll be taking the +1.5.

Thanks for sharing.

[MatthewPV]

That is about the must disgusting "smiley icon" I have ever seen. Shame on you. Sickening.

[jcygts6]

I like hangman ^^

[abv]

Is anybody concerned about the WAS line dropping 20 cents? Does our play change in light of it being under -180 now?

[on3]

Is anybody concerned about the WAS line dropping 20 cents? Does our play change in light of it being under -180 now?

bet will be graded on RL, since it is already posted. but if you place now, i would bet ML.

[darkmatter117]

Too small of a sample size to say anything for sure.

With that said, I doubt I'll be taking the +1.5.

Thanks for sharing.

I agree about the sample size. However, the logic is that, for a single game, it's too expensive to buy one run. If the choice is +100 ML or -150 +1.5 RL, taking the RL increases the needed win percentage by 10 percent. So you're dropping an extra 50 cents for an outcome -- a one-run loss -- that does not come up that often. I'm going to test the unfiltered plays when I can, but I'm confident the data will support that logic.

[J.M. Disciple]

Looking through old posts and saw this. This isn't true one bit, I have been paying these using the martingale and doing really well.

People just love bringing up my post and trying to bash on them... Please reread my post again. I know your statement was already answered as well, but I feel I should answer your post one more time. In no way shape or form did I mention martingale in my post. I said

"if you place $500 on each game by the end of the season you will be down money."

If you do not believe me then I encourage you to do so.

[ghislaine]

here here J.M.

[Wallco99]

I like hangman ^^

Hangman's cool, not as cool as the "Woo" guy though!

[analyzer]

Woo guy!

[J.M. Disciple]

edit...

[wade1]

Bookies love bets on RL

[J.M. Disciple]

Washington in extra innings pulls through

Com'on Boston!

[dlunc3]

Washington in extra innings pulls through

Com'on Boston!

calm down man... the play in this thread was -1.5RL

[Ghenghis Kahn]

yeah seriously there are some douches in this thread. when this thread is about the system and people bragging about reverse RLs or non-winning bets, wtf is up with that? you can find them all in the internet...

[swordsandtequila]

In all fairness, he may have been on the ML; I was, as I didn't get a chance to make my plays 'til late and ML was <-190 for all three games. Benefit of the doubt may be in order. Just saying.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i'm not just talking about him. it's seems like every day some douche is bragging about some alternative bet to the official system play. if you got lucky and hit the play, just keep that shit to yourselves. no need to say, "look at me, i'm a fuckin attention whore!!!!" knowing the fact that most people have the official bets...

[Wallco99]

i'm not just talking about him. it's seems like every day some douche is bragging about some alternative bet to the official system play. if you got lucky and hit the play, just keep that shit to yourselves. no need to say, "look at me, i'm a fuckin attention whore!!!!" knowing the fact that most people have the official bets...

Sounds like you lost. Sorry to hear that. Better luck next time.

[swordsandtequila]

i'm not just talking about him. it's seems like every day some douche is bragging about some alternative bet to the official system play. if you got lucky and hit the play, just keep that shit to yourselves. no need to say, "look at me, i'm a fuckin attention whore!!!!" knowing the fact that most people have the official bets...