on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

[boycali01]

laa suck, allowed 3 run

[oklahoma]

Now that was some bullshit. What a joke

[alxsamsonov]

Has an A bet RL hit for us at all yet? Every time the team wither loses SU or wins by 1.

[Taro Punk]

scumbag twins~ such a waste

[dlunc3]

It's all good boys.. lots of plays.tomorrow

[WVU9494]

I guess after having the clippers huge last night I deserved that one

[J.M. Disciple]

EARLY LINES FOR MAY 1ST
OFFICIAL PLAYS:
LAA (B) WAGER (-156) O/U 8.5

POSSIBLY PLAYS:
CSW (-126)
ATL (-125)
NAT (-135)
CIN (-153) VS CUBS O/U 8
STL (-185) VS PIRATES O/U 7.5
SF (-152) VS MIA O/U 6


Also as on3 mentioned he is tracking road favorites with the o/u of 9
Which makes texas -140 a play tomorrow again.

Good luck

[on3]

Also as on3 mentioned he is tracking road favorites with the o/u of 9
Which makes texas -140 a play tomorrow again.

Good luck

well, playing them. not necessarily tracking them. but playing them for the series win. since TEX won today, no play tomorrow for me.

[on3]

System record 31-1-0; 9-0-0
Units +18
1 unit = $20

5/1

#33 -- minnesota @ LAA -154 (B)
#34 -- chicago @ CIN -154 (A) -- o/u 8
#35 -- pittsburgh @ STL -180 (A) -- o/u 7.5
#36 -- miami @ SF -152 (A) -- o/u 6
#37 -- cleveland @ CWS -152 (A) -- o/u 7

Game 1 win = 17-16; 7-2
Game 2 win = 12-3; 2-0
Game 3 win = 2-1; 0-0

Labby Line (regular) (minor reshuffle)

x-45-46-45
x-x-x-52
x-x-30-33

Labby Line (filter)

x-x-x-x

LAA to win 52
CIN to win 45
STL to win 46
SF to win 45
CWS to win 30

[CrazyCarl]

I'm sorry, I know I've cluttered here before, but can someone explain to me the reasoning of betting each game to knock off one number on the line? Doesn't that kind of negate the idea of the labby?

[metsy]

I'm a little confused here. I see you said 31 and 32 eligible for 5/2. And I think I am seeing it correctly that #31 and #32 are A games. OK, got that. But where are the B games to bet 5/2 on if A is a loss? Also, in post 790 it says not to bet on A games, but all three below are A games. Also, what happens when A and B and C games are played at the same time. How do you bet B games based on A games if they are both played at the same time? I am basing all this of off post 790. I will paste below this. Thanks.

4/30

#31 -- baltimore @ NYY -173 (A) -- o/u 9 -- eligible for 5/2 if (A) loses
#32 -- oakland @ BOS -149 (A) -- o/u 9 -- eligible for 5/2 if (A) loses
#33 -- minnesota @ LAA -225/-105 (A) -- o/u 7.5 -- play RL

Game 1 win = 15-15; 5-2
Game 2 win = 12-3; 2-0
Game 3 win = 2-1; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

40-47-46-50*
x-x-x-x
10-30-30-33

Labby Line (filter)

10-10-10-10

NYY to win 40
BOS to win 47
LAA to win 50

NYY to win 20
BOS to win 20

*note on the line, all losses from todays (A) bets, hopefully none, will be placed on the (B) line in favor of keeping the lines weighted equally. if we reach a 5/2 bet, that bet will NOT be on the labby and will be a straight 5 unit bet.

4/2 Method
Not the Official system!

First off I would just like to acknowledge that the Opening Fav system is not broken. This has been stated by me and others and it's true - following On3's labby will give you success. I created this method for people who either do not want to go through the steps of managing a labby or are having trouble learning and wish to use an easier method that still gives great results. So, while long term this method may even produce a good amount more units than the labby way, (many seasons using 4/2 or the filtered 5/2 were +90 units) there is nothing wrong with using the labby. It is not my wish to detract from the work TheRizz and On3 have done, but rather to add to the pot they've created.

New Filters

There are 3 new filters added for this way-to-play. These filters must be used regardless of which variation of this method you use.

1. DO NOT play games that start before 4/25
2. DO NOT play games that start after 9/20 (this effectively makes your season 4/25-9/20 every year)
3. If you start a series and the B or C bet for the series in question has a line of -300 or more, it is best to either skip the series or play -runs. Even if you are mid series, it is best to just take the loss and stop. These high fav games didn't lose often or even frequently, but at that level the risk is no where near the reward.

Way-To-Play

There are 2 ways to play this method - the filtered or non-filtered way. Regardless of which way you choose you must use the 3 new filters mentioned above! YOU SKIP THE A BET IN THIS METHOD!

Filtered: This is the most efficient way to play. When an A game comes up, check to see if it passes the O/U filter of 9. Note this but skip the A bet! If the A bet loses, and the A game passed the O/U filter, then B and C bets are open for play. You would then bet to win 4 units on the B bet and if that loses then bet to win net 2 units on the C (that's recovering your lost units and then +2). If the C bet loses then the series is over as a loss.
The total unit count for this method was +444.77, an average of +55.6 units per season. Only 1 season in 8 backtested years went negative and even then only by -9 units. Not exactly a BR killer. This way is best for those who want clean, easy, consistent growth without hassle. Note: If your bankroll is a little larger, you should check out the 5/2 method.

Non-Filtered: This provides more total units than the filtered version (although less than the filtered 5/2) at the expense of more plays and more hassle with larger and more frequent losses. I would not recommend this way despite it winning more units, as it fluctuates too much. It lacks the easy and consistent growth of the filtered way. The only difference here is that you play any B or C game, the play does not need to pass the A bet O/U filter of 9. Though you still skip the A bet!
The total unit count for this method was +502.51, an average of +62.8 units per season. In this method 3seasons out of 8 went negative. Again while it does have a higher unit count you will have more trouble getting there, If you crave more units but want to keep efficiency check out the 5/2 method.

Variations

There are 2 variations to this method. The 5/2 method and the labby+ method. Both variations put more of your bankroll at risk but in turn have the potential to maximize your profit.

5/2 Filtered: The best way if you have a larger BR. It is best you only play 5/2 on games that pass the O/U filter of 9. I also recommend you only play this method if you have a larger bankroll and can handle the higher losses that come from it. The principle is still the same, just play to win 5 units on the B bet (only if the A bet loses and passes the O/U filter!) and net 2 on C. There is a 37.5% chance per season you will hit a loss that is over -30 units. But never in my backtests did a loss go over -40 and there was never more than 1 loss that cost that high. This is the best way to play if your BR can handle the ~7 extra units lost per loss.
The total unit count for this method was +531.8, an average of +66.5 units per season. Since this should only be used the filtered way, this method only had 1 losing season (just like the filtered way) and only by -11 units. Again, this is the absolute best way if you can handle the extra units per loss.

Labby+: This isn't so much a way to play as it is an add-on to the method itself. This variation capitalizes on the fact that the labby is still a great way to play this system. Essentially you play this method by playing A,B, and C games on the labby just as on3 does. But in addition also run the filtered way to play on the B and C games. Essentially having two different yet successful methods feeding off each other and giving you even more units without adding additional risk to either the labby or filtered 4/2. This variation is for those with bigger BRs who don't mind running the labby but at the same time wish to supplement it with the 4/2 method. Keep in mind you can have a large amount of money in play if the lines get bad on your labby.


Quick way-to-play summation (filtered way)
1. Check teams that are starting a 3 or more game homestand. See if they open at -145 or higher, note the O/U score.
2. If that A bet loses, and the O/U score was 9 or higher, it is now a play
3. On the B bet, place a wager to win 4 units
4. If the B bet loses, place a wager on the C bet to win net 2 units. Series is over after a win or C bet loss.

Special thanks to both TheRizz and On3

[Wallco99]

***

[Wallco99]

[QUOTE=metsy;14615090]I'm a little confused here. I see you said 31 and 32 eligible for 5/2. And I think I am seeing it correctly that #31 and #32 are A games. OK, got that. But where are the B games to bet 5/2 on if A is a loss? Also, in post 790 it says not to bet on A games, but all three below are A games. Also, what happens when A and B and C games are played at the same time. How do you bet B games based on A games if they are both played at the same time? I am basing all this of off post 790. I will paste below this. Thanks.

Who's on first, What's on second, and I Don't Know is on third...Got it, Abbott!!

[CrazyCarl]

Oh, boy. Perhaps the 5/2 should have had its own thread after all. :P

[darkmatter117]

Metsy, I'd like to help you out but I don't understand what you're asking. These are distinct systems. The qualifications for the plays are the same, but in on3's you wager on game one of the series (the A bet) whereas you don't in thelimit's. In thelimit's system, you only begin wagering at game two of the series (the B bet) and only then if game one (the A bet -- which you did not make in thelimit's system but did in on3's) was a loss. It's my understanding that neither of yesterday's plays that qualified for thelimit's system -- NYY and BOS -- are plays today because both teams won on the ML. Players who took NYY on the -1.5 RL may wager on the B bet using thelimit's system, but I'm not sure.

[metsy]

Ha, yeah, I will admit alot of numbers in that question.

[QUOTE=Wallco99;14615408]

Who's on first, What's on second, and I Don't Know is on third...Got it, Abbott!!

[on3]

I'm sorry, I know I've cluttered here before, but can someone explain to me the reasoning of betting each game to knock off one number on the line? Doesn't that kind of negate the idea of the labby?

I agree, but that's why I shuffle the line to distribute the amounts. I just don't want the A bet to be a 4 unit bet.

[CrazyCarl]

I agree, but that's why I shuffle the line to distribute the amounts. I just don't want the A bet to be a 4 unit bet.

Did this shuffling result in clearing 2 numbers for one bet?

[wade1]

You guys are making a simple system way too complicated. For Pete's sake chase the home team in a 3 game series and forget it. I use martingale and have been winning for over 20 years

[on3]

WAS looks like its going to be a play. Will update in an hour.

[Nino7]

You guys are making a simple system way too complicated. For Pete's sake chase the home team in a 3 game series and forget it. I use martingale and have been winning for over 20 years

What's ur bankroll after 20 yr

[Nino7]

Did this shuffling result in clearing 2 numbers for one bet?

i think he delete 47 and 40 on line 1 then add 52 on line 2 (loss) then take 10 and 30 from line 3 to add it on line 1 then take 5 from the 50 line 1 and add it to this 40...Am right?

[Gndias]

wade1 couldn't said it better.But you should only do that on the better teams....just look at what happened to detroid.
20 years? you should be loaded by now...cruising around in a bigger plane then opie's

[on3]

WAS still on the fence, update will be closer to game time.

[wade1]

Detroit and Seattle could play 100 series, how many times will Seattle sweep them. Get real, you will not win 100% of the time

[1958]

I do not want to make you angry or confuse you but I have a question for a non system play.
Last night TB did not qualify (the line was low) and today the series goes on (3 more games). Pithching situation is great for the home team, line is fine. Why skip TB? After all, one can consider this a 3 game series. Just a thought..

[wade1]

Washington? The same Washington who has lost 4 in a row. Tell me your not serious. How many labby lines are you going to use for that. Even if you win that's a bad bet

[Gndias]

wade relax mate...

[dlunc3]

Washington? The same Washington who has lost 4 in a row. Tell me your not serious. How many labby lines are you going to use for that. Even if you win that's a bad bet

Not saying it is a right or wrong series to play... but lets not forget this wash team is 8-2 at home and isnt the bottom of the barrel anymore... regardless, this system is just that, a system. The games are based off of vegas lines, not personal capping skills. BOL

[J.M. Disciple]

Did this shuffling result in clearing 2 numbers for one bet?

If you notice he is not getting 6 0r 7 #s on his line. His lines remain at 4#s or less almost the entire season now and should be that way for the remainder of the season. Its a different variation of the labby, but works out well.

The way he does it when you average the loss over 2 lines with out really adding a # unless there are less then 4#s it only takes 2 wins to clear a line. Basically say you have:

Line A) 10-10-10-10
Line B) 10-10-10-10

you lose $30 on your A game. now your new lines are:
Line A) 10-10-10-25
Line B) 10-10-10-25

notice there are no new #s added to the line. both lines still have 4 #s. This is why he is not betting to cross off 2 #s. You could cross off two #s if you want and risk a little more, but its just a preference.

If you want to reduce variance but make slightly less profit do it the way on3 is doing it. If you want to maximize profit then go ahead and bet to cross off two #s. I am personally doing it traditional way. its all just a preference to the individual.

[J.M. Disciple]

well, playing them. not necessarily tracking them. but playing them for the series win. since TEX won today, no play tomorrow for me.

I think your onto some thing good here. Its basically just flipping your system from home to away and only playing it as filtered. My thinking of it when you said playing favorites with o/u of 9 on the road I thought you were going to play them each and every game. I did not know you were basing them on 3 game home stands. I think each and every game could be worth labbying seeing how the results are so good on the filtered plays.

Good Luck on your new system theory. Maybe next season you can run both in your thread.

[Wallco99]

The man has created a system which has been consistently winning, yet every day, someone comes in here with their guru ideas of tweaking it, changing it, adding to it, betting it different and God knows what else. It's no wonder everyone is confused, who the hell knows what the system is anymore with all these distracting posts. There's now this 4/2, 5/2, constant talk of other systems, JMD's "system of the day", and now this new guy who wants to start chases in the second game of the series. We have three or four people who just feel the absolute NEED to run to their computers as early in the morning as they can to post the entire MLB card for the day as potential plays, EVERY DAY, only to have most, if not all, of those listed plays not be official anyway. Then yesterday, some genius wins the race to the computer to list all the VISITING teams as plays, get a clue guys. Let the man run his thread. I really don't think he needs anyone's help. 90% of the posts in this thread are topics not even related to on3's system, or questions from confused members resulting from someone just having to be a hero and posting the plays the night before, not to mention, everyone and their brother suddenly having a new system or a better way to bet this one. There is no reason this thread should be 1000 posts deep already, just let on3 post the plays (on3 only), then feel free to throw him points and say "way to go". That is all this thread needs to be, if anyone is going to be able to follow it. I know JMD you are not going to listen and do whatever you want anyway, but I am sure there are many, many people who would like to click on this thread and be able to find the plays without having to go back through 5 pages of garbage to find the actual plays, and not other people's opinions of what the plays will be 12 hours from now. Enough already, let the man do his thing. I am not singling you out, but your name just came to mind.

[BSUWADDY]

The man has created a system which has been consistently winning, yet every day, someone comes in here with their guru ideas of tweaking it, changing it, adding to it, betting it different and God knows what else. It's no wonder everyone is confused, who the hell knows what the system is anymore with all these distracting posts. There's now this 4/2, 5/2, constant talk of other systems, JMD's "system of the day", and now this new guy who wants to start chases in the second game of the series. We have three or four people who just feel the absolute NEED to run to their computers as early in the morning as they can to post the entire MLB card for the day as potential plays, EVERY DAY, only to have most, if not all, of those listed plays not be official anyway. Then yesterday, some genius wins the race to the computer to list all the VISITING teams as plays, get a clue guys. Let the man run his thread. I really don't think he needs anyone's help. 90% of the posts in this thread are topics not even related to on3's system, or questions from confused members resulting from someone just having to be a hero and posting the plays the night before, not to mention, everyone and their brother suddenly having a new system or a better way to bet this one. There is no reason this thread should be 1000 posts deep already, just let on3 post the plays (on3 only), then feel free to throw him points and say "way to go". That is all this thread needs to be, if anyone is going to be able to follow it. I know JMD you are not going to listen and do whatever you want anyway, but I am sure there are many, many people who would like to click on this thread and be able to find the plays without having to go back through 5 pages of garbage to find the actual plays, and not other people's opinions of what the plays will be 12 hours from now. Enough already, let the man do his thing. I am not singling you out, but your name just came to mind.

Amen Brother!

[stevex]

Good 'ish Wallco. Spot on statement. Keep all the other BS out of the thread and just let on3 do what he does...

[darrendice]

Are we playing chicago WS too?