on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

**on3** · 05-08-12, 01:24 AM

System record 37-3-0; 9-0-0
Units -7.5
1 unit = $20

5/8

#40 -- ny mets @ PHI -170 (B)

Game 1 win = 21-20; 7-2
Game 2 win = 14-5; 2-0
Game 3 win = 2-3; 0-0

Labby Line (regular)

65-x-82-95
x-x-87-93
85-85-86-94

Labby Line (filter)

10-10-10-10

PHI to win 93

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-08-12, 01:34 AM

Lets all cut back on the complaining some so we dont have to read 2 pages of of it to find the next plays. Plenty of season left to recover the units so stop B1tching. It doesn't help put extra money in your pocket and doesn't enlighten anyone elses mood posting that crap. Lets move onto the next game.

Thanks for posting early and colorizing On3.

Good Luck

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-08-12, 01:39 AM

Lets not bag on Philly too much cause this early line looks favorable for us when comparing the pitchers. I believe Philly should be much bigger favorite on this B bet and expect the line to jump. Mets have only won 4 straight once this year so this B bet should cash. Their pitcher is 0-1 and has an ERA of 14 and WHIP of 3.00. Compared to Philly's with a whip of .90 and a much lower Era of 2-3 I think. I forget the complete stats, but hopefuly you all get it early.

Good Luck all.

Philly -168 at 5dimes.

**dlunc3** · 05-08-12, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Lets not bag on Philly too much cause this early line looks favorable for us when comparing the pitchers. I believe Philly should be much bigger favorite on this B bet and expect the line to jump. Mets have only won 4 straight once this year so this B bet should cash. Their pitcher is 0-1 and has an ERA of 14 and WHIP of 3.00. Compared to Philly's with a whip of .90 and a much lower Era of 2-3 I think. I forget the complete stats, but hopefuly you all get it early.

Good Luck all.

Philly -168 at 5dimes.

remember this is joe blanton you are talking about... not doc, cole or lee...

nothing worse then backing a juiced blanton...

oh well.. lets go phills

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-08-12, 03:50 PM

Is everyone done discussion 2007 season which resulted in -70 units? We are just going to keep going and not worry about it?

**dlunc3** · 05-08-12, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Is everyone done discussion 2007 season which resulted in -70 units? We are just going to keep going and not worry about it?

I could be wrong, but that -70 unit season was done by doing a straight up chase, not labby.. is this correct?

**darkmatter117** · 05-08-12, 04:19 PM

Correct, that was using Martingale. To my knowledge there's no way to calculate Labby results without simulating the entire season. Still, I don't expect Labby would perform significantly better -- maybe closer to -30 or -40 units? That was the worst season for the system in recent years and would have been -9 using limit's method (I assume 4/2 filtered, but perhaps 5/2 filtered -- he'd have to answer that).

One thing I'd be curious to see is the yearly win percentage for AL vs. NL. I haven't verified this, but it appears that there are more losses in the NL. Of course, there are also more filtered plays in AL, so the percentage may be skewed some by that.

**darkmatter117** · 05-08-12, 04:21 PM

Speaking of filtered plays, does anyone have a theory to explain why the filter seems to work?

**dlunc3** · 05-08-12, 04:29 PM

I am an idiot... I missed the -170 this morning, and by lunch time when I went to put the large part of my bet in, phills were up to -187.. so being as smart as I am, i decided to wait it out in hopes it would come back down

went to put it in now and its -200!!! wtf, blanton is the #5 pitcher on this team, and an average #3 on most teams. No reason in hell should he ever be anywhere near -200.... riding it out and trusting the system though... but wtf..

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-08-12, 05:37 PM

Banton might be #3 on most teams but the other pitcher is just horrible. Philly's as a whole team should never be -200 though in my mind. Their offense is horrible similar to Boston.

**on3** · 05-08-12, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by darkmatter117

Speaking of filtered plays, does anyone have a theory to explain why the filter seems to work?

higher o/u means higher volatility in runs scored, which means more room for error for the better team. if you have a game with an o/u of 6.5 and your team goes down 4-0, it is impossible you will win the game assuming the o/u holds true. if the o/u is 9, the likelihood is increased in your favor that your team can make a comeback assuming the o/u holds true.

**darkmatter117** · 05-08-12, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by on3

higher o/u means higher volatility in runs scored, which means more room for error for the better team. if you have a game with an o/u of 6.5 and your team goes down 4-0, it is impossible you will win the game assuming the o/u holds true. if the o/u is 9, the likelihood is increased in your favor that your team can make a comeback assuming the o/u holds true.

Thanks, on3. That's what I suspected. It makes me wonder if AL has the safer plays.

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-08-12, 06:39 PM

Philly nice start

Trying to scroll through the pages and find the Cisco link... but no look... Anyone know the page #?

**daddyv** · 05-08-12, 07:21 PM

Page not found - CappersMall

http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/f5/ciscos-systems-2012-a-481585/

Id stay away from playing too many chase systems at once...its all good when ur hitting the As but can get ugly very soon

**oklahoma** · 05-08-12, 08:20 PM

...and here come the mets

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-08-12, 08:20 PM

Oh god not again

**eric14tsui** · 05-08-12, 08:23 PM

Fu*k me, very impressive bullpen and defence by the Philly..

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-08-12, 08:23 PM

GOD WHAT A ******* JOKE JESUS CHRIST. We're all going to go broke at this rate.

**daddyv** · 05-08-12, 08:23 PM

is this really happening?????

**dlunc3** · 05-08-12, 08:26 PM

game over.. we deserve this for laying -175/-200 on joe blanton and this triple A phills team

**darrendice** · 05-08-12, 08:28 PM

You have to wonder what the books are doing setting these lines

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-08-12, 08:29 PM

I can't believe we keep laying a bunch of juice on these terrible teams.

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-08-12, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by darrendice

You have to wonder what the books are doing setting these lines

Making money off of chumps like us.

**gofightingirish** · 05-08-12, 08:35 PM

fukkin kiddin me.....got them with a 2 teamer with miami......money wasted......fukkkkkk !!!!!!!!!!!

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-08-12, 08:35 PM

I'm sick.

**WVU9494** · 05-08-12, 08:37 PM

This thread is bankrupting me...........

**Douchebag50** · 05-08-12, 08:39 PM

Idiot are f...g popping out with a 3 and 1 count dum oysters

**Douchebag50** · 05-08-12, 08:52 PM

Man on second, no outs and this stupid MTF of a coach doesn't ask the bunt for the second night in a row...this sorry ass coach should get canned!!!

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-08-12, 09:02 PM

Not sure whether to cry or laugh right now.

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-08-12, 09:06 PM

so we're going to bet more on these idiots again tomorrow?

**xgame** · 05-08-12, 09:08 PM

Shitssss!!!!!

**WVU9494** · 05-08-12, 09:14 PM

This thread just single handily wiped me out, and has nothing to do with money management.

**AwesomeGuy** · 05-08-12, 09:14 PM

Good job charlie!

**Nova99** · 05-08-12, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by AwesomeGuy

so we're going to bet more on these idiots again tomorrow?

Cliff Lee, home game, avoid the sweep, books are gonna set the line real high for us chasers morrow...

**Douchebag50** · 05-08-12, 09:15 PM

Well, now just seems like we're flushing money down the toilet