marcum for the series road win tomorrow!!!! Not betting, but hoping lol..we could really use it. Lucky come from behind win for the cards tho
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I was asked on my blogJust taking a glance The Pirates seem to be totally blowing offensively at home with a 2.60 RC/27 and 4.04 on the road. They have a pretty tough ball park for right handed hitters. At home they hit a home run every 62.6 ABs while on the road it's 35.5. Pitching ERA is Home 3.00 and Road 3.82 so it's certainly a ballpark thing.How about an update on how opposing PIT & ARIZ on the road is doing season-to-date? Are you taking a financial interest?
But before I go farther - I do not believe there really is such as thing as a team that "can not win on the road" or "can only win at home".
In MLB there is about a 4% home field advantage from playing at home and what you see during a year is just a small sample of games played. I read once that to REALLY know what team is better you would have to play about 300 games in baseball and 140 games in the NFL to take away all the luck factor.
I'm constantly hearing about the Brewers problems on the road but that is because it's the easy thing to say. Let's look at their road problems and find better excuses for losing.
Opening series vs. Cinci 0-3 remember snow? Remember how I said the Brewers suck in cold weather? Perfect example.
Then they go on the road and are 4-4 including winning the series in Phillie! No road problems there.
But what is causing all of the hand wringing is the 2-8 trip where in the 8 games there Brewers lost the AVERAGE Starting Pitcher ERA was near 2.50. So you have a team in a little funk going against some of the best pitching in the NL game after game.
And since that trip the Brewers are 3-3 on the road! I don't buy it that the Brewers can not win on the road. It's just an easy excuse. We are looking at a small set of numbers and trying to make a prediction.
HOWEVER - I just did some crunching and use this for what it's worth.
In Brewer victories they hit 1.3 homes runs a game. In Brewer losses they hit 0.7 home runs! The problem here is that I don't know what the league average is. This is like saying that the Brewers are 140-1 when winning by 2 in the ninth! I say WOW but then I could see the league average is 138-2 so - no big deal.
ANYWAY - tonight's game, Marcum vs. Leake.
Marcum has pitched 3 sub par games this year and each time he has come back with two stellar games. In fact he is almost on a 2 on 1 off trend! today is an on! He has pitched GREAT on the road and if you take away his 1st outing in his other 5 road games he has a 0.52 ERA.
Leake has some problems with the long ball at home giving up 12 home runs in 77 innings in Great American Ballpark and he also walks a lot of guys in his home ball park.
The Brewers have drawn the 2nd most walks in the NL in the last 20 games and the Reds have allowed the MOST home runs in the last 20 games. The Reds are 2nd to last in striking out opponents and the Brewers are near the top in NOT striking out! So the Brewers will be making contact!
The Brewers are hitting better, scoring more runs, winning more games and have better pitching with a rested bull pen.
YET - The Crew are +100. This is a deal!!Comment -
fuk loe, i hate that piece of shit!!!!! i hope that tall piece of crap falls and breaks his legComment -
Originally posted by jhack704
I think Loe has talent, but at the start of this season, I told my Dad, also a Brewer fan, that Loe is this years Todd Coffey.
...and I like Todd Coffey I wish he was still a Brewer but the guy would be solid two straight outings, then inexplicably completely shit the bed on the next night.
I'm wondering why Loe was the choice for the 8th last night. I guess I can answer my own question, even though he pitched the previous night and there were fresher arms available, Loe is the standard "8th inning and Brewers are leading" set-up guy.
Maybe not for long.
Was happy to see McGehee take a sit....at least the manager seems to have some accountability for performance at the plate.
When are we going to see Herrera that they claimed off waivers?Comment -
i feel like we're overusing loe...r starters besides narveson are going deep into games for the most part, then loe pitches the 8th and axford 9th pretty much every game latelyComment -
The thing with loe is he is a very very good ground ball hitter and with the lack of a LHP in the bullpen he was the best choice. Plus Loe IS the set-up guy so Hawkins/Loe/Ax are the 7/8/9 guys - just too many close games!!! He was pitching great until he grooved that one down the heart of the plate!
Herrera off waivers would be great - we need a LHP!!!! I'll sign on.
Loe has pitched in 30 games and in only 6 has he been ineffective - not a bad ratio 80% success!
Low 80%
Axford 68%
Hawkins 69%
Mitre 74%
Estrada 80%
McClendon 62%
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Friday 6/3/11
You know - the linemakers in baseball are pretty good. In the NFL you can exploit the linemakers as they have to adjust the lines to deal with the squares. The betting public in the NFL is pretty stupid and you can exploit that.
In baseball 90% of the handicappers are using some sort of number based betting system and are trying to beat THE BEST number based betting system. So typically the line you see is real real close to realism. It's tough to beat.
So Wednesdays game was, according to the linemakers, pretty much a 50/50 game and as it turned out! They were right!
Record 32-23 +7.92
I made a small change in my book keeping as I realized that a +100 is actually a dog play. 50/50 would be -105 with the dime line. So the two times I bet +100 and lost that goes to the DOGS.
Tonight the Brewers play the Marlins in a pitcher friendly park where no one hits homeruns!
I'll tell ya right now I'm playing the Marlins at -125. If the Brewers could have had a better line I might have thought about it but . . . they didn't.
Ricky Nolasco has been tough at home, tough at night, tough against righties. His average game score at home is 58. Brewers won't hit a HR and Rickey is very very good at holding runners on base (Brewers in the last 20 games have stolen the most bases in the NL)
Randy Wolf has not had good luck in Florida and has never pitched more the 6 innings out of 10 games. He's 4-6.
What bothers me is that Braun, Fielder and McGhee have not hit ANY homeruns in 8 games and Sun Life Park is a tough place to go yard.
Both pens are rested.
On the bright side Wolf has two pretty good games in a row (both at home).
But - bottom line
Marlins -125
I'm also playing some side money fading the Twins and I'll do this until I lose a couple units! The Twins are pretty much playing with their AAA team now with 8 guys in the DL.
Tomorrow I won't have a big blog as I'll be n the road about 6:00 in the morning - I'll post my play and that's about it.
CheersComment -
Originally posted by Grinder12000
Not to derail the subject of this thread, but I totally agree with this I've been sort of following the Twins and they are quite hapless, not only are they missing talent but they seem to be in a psychological funk going back to last year's playoffs.
I think even very one sided lines against the twins probably still have some value in them right now.Comment -
I agree with the Marlins pick. If I remember correctly from the paper this morning, Wolf is 4-12 against the Marlins in his career. And the Marlins' pitcher is 1-0 against the Brew Crew this season.
Good luck!Comment -
Well - no home runs - FAIL!!!! LOL Can't complain!
Brewers -135 bank it!Comment -
It was a good thing I didn't bet on the Marlins yesterday. Very good game though!
Good luck tonight Grinder! Gallardo going for his 8th win of the season to create a tie at the top of the league wins column.Comment -
I swear I posted a one sentence yesterday! Picked Brewers -135
Record 32-24 +7.67
No time today - Marlins -135
I'll be back to normilish Monday!Comment -
hope you lose today!Comment -
Yea - that was great! No worries about losing my wager but winning the game! That will teach me for betting AGAINST the Brewers.
Monday 6/6/2011 D-Day
Record 33-25 +6.25
I'm going for the sweep! After all - the Brewers have the best record in the Majors since May 9th!!
STATS
Top of the order last 12 games
Brewers .284 3.33 runs 3.42 RBIs 28 Home runs in the last 20 games
Marlins .283 2.75 runs 2.17 RBIs 18 Home runs in the last 20 games
Brewers just have better hitting and are winning games they lost on previous road trips.
Javier Vazquez is pitching for Florida and he is a big fly ball pitcher and gives up home runs at an alarming rate. The ONLY time he is a good pitcher is with bases with empty. Out of the stretch he totally blows. Another thing to watch is that the 2nd time around the order is much worse for him. His 6.00 ERA is pretty much deserved.
Greinke has still not showed his REAL full game self but his last two starts have been good! You might say his last game was a struggle but if you look at it he did not collapse (like Narveson does). Greinke's problem has been giving up the long ball and the Marlins in Florida are not a long ball club with only a .378 Slugging at home (which is actually better then the Brewers Road slugging) and less then 1 HR a game (Brewers are better).
But for the Brewers - they have the #1 pitching staff in the last 20 games with a 3.04 ERA. Florida 4.44.
Brewers are on a roll and -130 on the road seems good.
A note about Axford. We have all noticed that he seems to be struggling but looking at the real numbers it's really not him at all. This year he is striking out more batters and walking just a few more. The big deal with him is that his defense behind him is much worse then last year! He's not getting any help at all.
But typically it all comes back so I feel he has had some bad luck behind him. The BIG thing, the only thing that worries me is that he's giving up more extra base hits but in the grand scheme of things - it's all good.
This is what kind of closer he is. Walks and strikeouts!
Brewers -130Comment -
I like the Brewers today also.
Milwaukee is 4-1 in the last 5 games on the road against the Marlins, and 6-1 in their last 7 games against the Marlins. In my book, the Brewers line is down to -131 so I would advise anyone to jump on this as soon as possible because the betting trend shows 71% are on the Brew Crew tonight.Comment -
I also like the UNDER tonight. Greinke and Vasquez are pitching, so I expect them to have a battle. The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 games between these two teams, and I'm predicting that to improve tonight to 5 of the last 7 games.
Good luck!
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I'm just hoping it's not a one run game - Axford is gassed!Comment -
Record 34-25 +7.32
Record when betting on the Brewers AND they are the fav 26-11 +12.52
Bring on the Mets!
WELL - looks like the linemakers are finally noticing the Brewers. I've been waiting for the lines to start getting a little taller and the Brewers are -185 today.
Capuano vs. Marcum
Raw Numbers
Top of the Order for the last 10 games
Brewers .274 2.80 Runs 3.10 RBIS
Mets .343 3.40 Runs 2.60 RBIs
Pitching - Starters / Pen ERA
Brewers 4.23 / 1.69
Mets 3.42 / 9.67 a VERY consistent 9.67 HORRIBLE bull pen
Last 20 games Brewers 15-5 Mets 10-10
Avg Mets .281 Brewers .249
On Base Pct Mets .338 Brewers .314
Slugging Brewers .448 Mets .366
Runs Brewers 92 Mets 80
Home runs Brewers 26 Mets 4 (FOUR)
Team ERA Brewers 2.84 Mets 4.47
So on offense we have a great hitting, very weak power team against a good hitting BIG power team.
And Pitching we have a very very good pitching team against an OK starting staff with a truly hideous bull pen.
Capuano is averaging just under 6 innings per start, Gives up flyballs AND home runs and has lost 6 of his last 7 start. He has major problems against Righties and the only good thing for him is that he is in Milwaukee which over the last 3 years has been a tough park for right handed hitters to hit home runs in. So be expecting Josh Wilson and Gomez to be connecting again LOL
He has an average game score of 47
The Mets on the road have a 3.77 RC/27 compared to at Home 4.98
Marcum's problem comes when he has turned the line-up over 3 times and opposing batters start figuring out his pitches. That 3rd time through has been the bug-a-boo! Otherwise? GOLD!!
His home games have been pretty average with a above MLB average game score of 53 (on the road 65).
The Mets steal bases but not as much as the league leading Brewers (last 20 games) and we all know Cappy is AMAZING holding runners on! Marcum is not bad himself but no one is on Cappys range.
So while the Brewers are a VERY LOFTY -180 It's deserved.
I got the Brewers -180Comment -
I pulled the tigger on the Brew Crew with 5 units on the ML and 1 on the RL. I feel better now that I read your post
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Comment -
I hit the Brewers ML, but missed the UNDER by one run. Still made money on my other picks nonetheless!
Brewers pull out a sweep on the road against the Marlins, and now they head back to Milwaukee to increase their MLB leading home record. Shawn Marcum has pitched 5 games at Miller Park, and his record is 3-1 with one resulting in no decision. I also like the Brewers tonight, but I am not going to take them unless the line goes down. Good luck Grinder!
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I hear ya about that line Donk. Met's are hitting well and I'm wondering about a letdown! Still - I look at the numbers and it screams Brewers! Close game Brewers win! In all the teams he Crew has faced this is the worst bull pen BY FAR! HOT HOT game tonight making balls fly farther. Crew not a big lefty killing team Fielder, McGehee and Bentencorp are pretty poor vs. LHP
Hart, Morgon, Gomez, Braun, Weeks love LHP Hart .773 slugging this year vs. LHP Might see Josh Wilson at SS tonight - he has a 83.50 RC/27 vs. LHP LOLComment -
Thanks again for the writeups Grinder, i'm pulling the trigger on the crew today but I wen't with Brewers -1, I just can't bring myself to lay big juice in MLB, hopefully brewers have a good game and cover runline.Comment -
I put a .5 unit on Brewers -1.5 (+115) because I think it has some good value. Let's see those Brewer bats!Originally posted by Grinder12000Comment -
It's going up. RL +125 now, you can probably get +130 by gametime.Comment -
Not looking good for the Brewers
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brewers aint winning tonight!
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I was not expecting THAT kind of a game! I was sad to see Estrada come in in the 7th? Hawkins - NOT Estrada! Hawkins, Loe, Axford - that is how it works coach - don't get all fancy!
I picked the Brewers yesterday knowing that -185 was a pretty steep price to pay. Yet they have been playing so well at home AND on the road that I just could not play the dog. Linemakers got me on that one.
record 34-25 +5.47 that one hurt!
Oh there were warning signs that I chose to ignore. Brewers are not wonderful vs. lefties and I just "had a feeling" there was a let down coming.
A supposedly more even match today between Pelfey and Wolf. THIS game should be -185 and yesterday should have been -165.
Pelfry in the last 3 years has pitched 347 innings in New York and 241 innings on the road. His ERA is Home = 3.16 Road = 5.47. He is an even GB/FB pitcher that will hang a few during the game and pitches to contact and here is the kicker. He has 4 pitches and three of them are fastballs - the Brewers love fastballs! His other pitch is a change-up that he rarely uses!
This is a guy you bet ON at home and AGAINST on the road! I have not seen to many pitchers that REALLY need big ball parks and I'm surprised the Brewers have not traded for him (like Suppan who I HATED just for this reason St.Louis to Milwaukee? Come on man?)
Anyway - Pelfry's AWAY Game Score average is 28.3 and his HOME Game Score Average is 59.6.
Wolf on the other hand likes Miller Park and against the powerless Mets should have a good day. When Wolf does not give up a Home Run his game score is a WHOPPING Hall Of Fame rate of 69.8. I don't see the Mets who have hit 4 home runs in the last 20 games to hit any out tonight!
The Mets are poor-er hitting on the road and poor-er against Lefties.
Brewers have hit HR's in 8 straight games and in fact have more home runs in the last THREE games then the Mets do in the last 20 games.
Brewers vs. Lefties have a RC/27 of 3.86 and vs. Righties 4.86
Brewers -165
And on my normal anti anti Gomez moment. I was on live chat on www.sportsline.com watching the game and commenting (it's fun try it - although I golf tonight - I'll be on tomorrow night) and I told Met fan in the 1st inning to watch Gomez as he is a human highlight in the outfield. Never mind his hitting problems, he makes up for it on defense.
Well, he saved 4 runs last night - FOUR! Take his batting average and add perhaps half a hit per game because that is what he saves and that hit he is saving is normally a double.
Yea we all love Morgon but Morgon is not half the outfielder Gomez is, Morgon has no arm and does not cover as much ground. His Zone Rating is much lower then Gomez. I feel blessed to watch Gomez on defense as I have never seen ANYBODY do what he does!
Who knows how long he will be a Brewer so instead of getting frustrated at his batting take delight in his fielding.Comment -
What the f**k happened to Estrada? If it wasn't for Gomez's web gem, he would've gotten rocked terribly. I missed the run line, but I got the UNDER 8.5.
I do not have much time today, but I might tail you on this one Grinder.Comment -
casey fukin blows, play wilson!Comment -
Just squeaked that one out tonight.. Nice pick Grinder.Comment -
too true! laid down the juice... and escaped with a win in the bottom nine!Originally posted by Notorious_DonkComment -
OK - how many of you did not see the ending of last nights game! I had it on but was not paying attention so I did not see the 8th inning- only the 9th. Tony Plush - Hero! What did I tell you about the Met bullpen.
Record 35-26 +6.47
I'm not sure who I'm picking yet in tonight's game and hopefully it'll be clearer as I type.
Niese vs. Gallardo
Niese is a ground ball pitching lefty - two qualities the Brewers dislike, except for the fact that he has pitched 5 innings vs. the Brewers and given up 17 hits and 11 Earned runs!
Niese can go deep into a game to save the bullpen.
Gallardo has pitched 6 strong games in a row and if you look at this years stats both pitchers are about the same. Both ground ball pitchers that give up 1 HR per 10 innings.
The Mets top of the order is still hitting .318 in the last 12 games and run production is pretty equal for for both teams, just different ways to do it.
I think the key here is that Niese will take away the long ball from the Brewers with his GB's but Gallardo will not take anything away from the Mets as they have no big HR threats.
Knowing that the Crew do have problems scoring vs. LHP and seeing the price so high I gotta go with the Mets at +157. I think the Brewers will win but I can't pay -175 vs. a ground ball pitching lefty!
Met's +157Comment -
Friday 6/10/11
Last night game was sort of an easy call when I saw the line. I felt it was all up to Gallardo and if he could hold the Mets to under 3 runs or less because the crew would not score.
Sadly I won my bet.
Record 36-26 +8.04
Tonight we have the 1st of a big series and I feel this is a pretty simple game to predict - Cards Win.
Raw numbers.
Top of the line up last 10 games
Brewers .255 2.7 runs 3.00 RBIs
Cards .266 3.6 runs 3.10 RBIs
Starting / Bull Pen ERA / Pen Innings last 10 games
Brewers 4.11 / 3.27 / 33
Cards 4.81 / 3.68 / 37
Last 20 games
Brewers 14-6
Cards 13-7
Batting Average Brewers .243 Cards .260
On Base% Brewers .306 Cards .329
Slugging Brewers .430 Cards .411
Runs Brewers 94 Cards 91
Home Runs Brewers 29 Cards 19
Errors Brewers 13 Cards 5
ERA Brewers 3.12 Cards 3.94
Pretty even on most counts.
Pitching for the Cards is Kyle Lohse the ground ball pitching ace of the Cards staff. Not much to say about this guy except he does not give up home runs, pitches to contact and pitches a lot of innings!
The one thing the Cards, I feel, will have problems with down the road is that they are using the pen a LOT. Not just the last 10 games but all year. Seeing 4 guys running to the mound from the bullpen is not uncommon at all. In fact in 6 of their last 10 games they have used 5 or more pitchers a game. This is going to be a problem at some point for the Cards. Not that they are pitching a ton of innings but their pen is warming up a lot every day.
Anyway - Lohse will have a good game and hold the peripheral Brewers down. Oddly McGehee is very good against Lohse.
Narveson gets the nod for the Brewers who has had a terrible time vs. Cards batters who hit .325 and slug .550 against the south paw and while the Cards are slightly worse against lefties, not THAT much.
In Narvesons last 3 outings he has failed to make it to the 6th inning and his last game where he went 5.33 innings and gave up 4 runs was his best! GULP!!
Half of his innings have been at night. He has a Day/Night ERA split is 3.57/6.37.
Give this 1st game to the Cards - I feel the Crew will win the 2nd and 3rd game!
Cards -104Comment -
Grinder....
Good call on the Mets.
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good lucikComment -
Sometimes things just go bad. At least the Brewers won so I'm all good! Always glad to lose the bet of the Brewers win!!
Saturday 6/11/11
Record 36-27 +7.00
Carpenter vs. Greinke
Carpenter could be in for a long night. Yea - he is a ground ball pitcher but he has had problems vs. the current Brewers in the past, This year his day/night ERA is rather lopsided even if you take out the 4IP 8ER game in Arizona. 2.92/4.57
He has pitched very well of late but his last 4 AWAY games he has a 5.26 ERA.
So there are three things - Bad at night, bad on the road, bad against the Brewers. His average Game Score on the road is 43 and at home 58.
In the 7 games Greinke has started the Crew have won 6 of those with an average Game Score of 53. He has continually gotten better and is going longer in games.
Plus notice - AGAIN the Cards Starter failed to go 6 innings, that is 9 out of the last 11 games! that is going to wear your pen out in the long run! The card Starters have an ERA of 5.00 in the last 11 games and their pen 3.86. The Brewers are 3.60 and 3.18.
The Cards Starters average going 5.72 innings per start.
One thing that strikes me about this game is that St.Louis depends on walks to get people on base, it's one of their weapons. Greinke does not walk people so the Brewers take away a big part of their game.
Milwaukee at a nice -125 seems like a good deal as I think the Brewers win this one 55.6% of the time!
Brewers -125Comment
