BREWERS - Season long write-ups

[Grinder12000]

tatddy - true that. Looking at last year in 8 starts after tossing 110 pitches he had an ERA over 7.00 - However if you take out two horrendous starts where he was left in as cannon fodder his ERA is is just a bit above his yearly average. However this is somethign to watch - if he comes out flat take a note to yourself and fade him!

Richards - I thought it was a kind line :-)

[Deggs]

I'm with you Grinder on the Brewcrew play.

[HilltopTony]

look for many runs tonight.

[Wiscsportsfan92]

Like the Crew tonight in a friday night at home

[Grinder12000]

Saturday 5/14/11

I'm on the road to an Art Fair so no write up today. Won last night and I put extra AND bet the Run line (pretty big game for me).

Today - Narveson seems expensive at -155 (overnight lines) but there are so many things I like about this game.

Pirates are poor against LHP, Good on the road but not hitting very well now.

Their pitcher seems like a guy who makes mistakes and their pen has to be starting to wear down. Another pitcher that will might not make it to the 6th inning!

Karstens will not get it done

Brewers -150

Gotta run
Cheers

[Grinder12000]

481 miles later I'm home and I see the Brewers won - means I've won 8 of the last 9!!!

[Richards]

Hey just wanted to check in and give a shout to Grinder for racking up the wins. Word might hit some of the other baseball threads and you'll start to get a following if you pick like this. Enjoying the write-ups dude, keep it up.

[Grinder12000]

Sunday 5/15/11

record 21-17 8 of the last 9 and +3.02

What can you say. I started to look at the game and quickly realized my goal would be not to find how Milwaukee would win but to find a reason to bet on Pittsburgh. Frankly - I see absolutely zero reason to put money on the Pirates vs. Milwaukee.

So there are two options. Bet the Brewers at -175 or don't bet at all. Since I can not do option #2 I must bet on the Brewers.

Watching MLB Network they said today's game was a "reverse favorite". Why you ask? Because Greinke has had an up and down season . . . . . .what?? up and down season? Hasn't he pitched like 2 games and the first was basically a spring training game?

And Correia the Pirate ace has been very good or very bad and I feel he is NOT a great pitcher. In the last 3 years he has a 5.96 ERA vs. Milwaukee. He also has a 5.80 ERA in Day Games and a 5.13 ERA on the Road in the last 3 years! HOWEVER - he is 5-0 on the road this year and is the reason the Pirates are so good on the road. Anomaly? I think so.

This is the Brewers remember? The team that is 32-3 vs. the Pirates in the last 35 home games. How can you go against that trend. Come on man!! Yea Correia is 3-4 vs. Milwaukee and will last probebly up to the 7th inning which is what the Bucs really need as their pen is on the cusp of getting tired. I don't care when the talking heads as on TV - the Pirate Pen is not THAT good.

As for the Brewers - Weeks is hitting a fair amount of extra base hits (6 in last 11 games), Gomez has 3 2Bs and 2 3Bs in his last 5 starts, Braun finally has an extra base hit after 9 games without one and his hitting the ball well of late, Fielder and McGehee are hitting well and even Hart has a 5 game hitting streak with 3 2Bs and let's not forget about Lucroy the Brewer leading hitter.

So the Brewers are are on good shape offensively. The bull pen is in a little flux with Braddock and Kintzler out but Estrada stepping up and side arm Dillard now on the team. You will probably see Mitre at some point and yea - the pen is a small concern but Geienke could go into the 8th inning and Ax-man is rested. Is Green still on the team? - I liked that guy, he had 4 good outings in a row before he disappeared.

Sit Setter - 5 of his last 6 outings have been bad.

So basically it's up to Greinke and the Brewer offense (which seems obvious) as I don't expect much out of the Pirates offense and then add a dash the Pirates just being cursed in Milwaukee.

Brewers -175

On a personal note - I put 1/2 unit on the -170 and half a unit on the RL at +125 The brewers still have 33% of their wins by 1 run so it's a risk but . . . .

[Bostongambler]

I love their bats.

[Grinder12000]

HEY HEY! 9 of the last 10 - I guess it gets a little harder this week!!

[Grinder12000]

Monday 5/16/11

Record: 22-17 +4.02

I would like to say I'm in tune with the Brewers winning 9 of the last 10 but it's more like . . . come on - they were playing the Pirates and at home.

The next 4 days will be a challenge as the Crew fly to the West Coast for two two game series in pitcher ball parks.

First the Brewers play in Dodger Stadium which is ranked 21 out of 30 for keeping runs off the board using Ball Park Factor**. It's not like Dodger Stadium has any one characteristic that keeps runs off the board - it's an all around big park. There will me no triples and walks are way way lower (not sure how a ballpark does that). On average there are 10% less runs scored in L.A.

**Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road.

And let's not forget that the Crew are two time zones away (jet lag for game #1).

Raw Numbers the last 9 games

Top of the Order
Brewers .259 Average 3.11 Runs 2.65 RBIs
Dodgers .285 Average 2.00 Runs 1.89 RBIs

Bullpens

Brewers - success rate 77% but iffy, the core five have been used a bunch and a lot of innings would be great for resting some guys

Dodgers - success rate 66% in great shape - over all the Dodgers have had good pitching lately.

So while the Brewer bats are in full swing AT HOME - this will be a good road test

Garland is an extreme ground ball pitcher who has been pitching consistently well. He loves pitching in Dodger Stadium (4-1 2.53 ERA) and if you take away his 1st game this year has a 2.57 ERA - The Brewers AGAIN are going up against YET ANOTHER VERY GOOD PITCHER ON THE ROAD.

He can hold runners on base, fields his position, is not a bad hitter, a good bunter and can get out of innings with the DP. This is exactly the kind of guy that the Brewers have problems with.

Marcum has been OUTSTANDING on the road this year with a 1.14 ERA in 5 road games and he should have a good night. It's hard to not like the Brewers in this game . . . .except the memories of the last road trip linger and I remember telling myself - BE CAREFUL ON THE ROAD vs. GOOD PITCHERS.

So until the Brewers can show me they have righted the "good pitcher on the road" syndrome I have to take the Dodgers at +105

I feel the Dodgers are playing a little over their heads and the Brewers are a little . . under their heads so in the long run I believe the Brewers are a better team - I just need to see that they can hit on the road. The price is right on this game.

Dodgers +105

[Grinder12000]

WOOPS - I see I was banned from the 2+2 forum again for posting my write-ups! what a bunch of Neanderthals over there! I retaliated once when I was trolled and BANNED!!! Good Grief.

[og4667]

great writeups again. It will be interesting to see how the brew crew do on this road trip.

[Grinder12000]

Tuesday 5/17/11

Well - I had the lack of offense correct for both sides! Wrong final answer though. Man those coast games get over late 12:15 I think it was when I became alert again!

record 22-18 +3.02

Today we get to see Randy Wolf who has had two horrific outings in a row. However - he is very comfortable in Dodger Stadium pitching 118 innings and posting an ERA 0.20 better then his three year overall. He is a flyball pitcher in a large park against a team that does not hit home runs! Dodger Stadium suits him. call me whacky but I think this is a good set up for him.

You have the Dodgers that are struggling at the moment scoring 1.9 and hitting in 1.8 runs per game *Top of the line-up) and while they are hitting .274 it's a powerless .274. They are last in the NL with only 9 HR's in the last 20 games. Keep the lead off Carroll off base and they are not going to score.

Look at the power difference between the two teams 2B/3B/HR in the last 20 games

Brewers 36/6/19
Dodgers 29/1/9

The Dodgers are last in slugging pct.

Pitching for the Dodgers (did you know their real name was The Trolly Dodgers?) is Kurodo who was 9th in the Majors in swinging strikeout and his walk rate and Strikeout to unintentional walk rate were 2nd in the league to Halladay. To me this means teh Brewers are not going to get cute and wait on pitches. Go up there hacking and when they do this good things happen.

I think we can get to this guy!

The one concern is the Brewer bull pen - we won't have the set-up Loe tonight as he has gone 3 days in a row. Ax has pitched 2 days in a row and 6 of the last 10 days - be nice to give him a rest. All others are rested - especially the front end of the pen.

The Dodger pen is a little stressed on the back end also.

What when gets me is that the Dodgers have only scored 2 runs in the last 3 games. They will score tonight but teh Brewers being dogs is intriguing.

I bet the Brewers at +116.

[Rick22]

Never sure of how the Brewers will come out - but they've been $$ lately. I hope it continues tonite. Wolf should be able to keep their bats under control (Dodgers have been looking pitiful), and if they can do something to get Gonzales to hit they should prevail.

[Richards]

I see Boggs ended up pinch hitting for Gomez in the 9th. I didn't stay up to watch to whole game....did Boggs go in because Gomez is suffering at the plate or was it simply a R/L matchup thing with Boggs being the switch hitter?

Gomez makes some stellar plays in CF he's all over the place out there but no matter where he is in the lineup, ugh he has some ugly at-bats.

The top of the 3rd was particularly disappointing for the Brewers. Wolf leads off with a nice double, Weeks makes a nice sac bunt. Hart walks. All Braun has to do with the infield back is put it in play almost anywhere. Would Roeneckie ever ask his million-dollar-man to bunt in that situation? You wouldn't think it would be necessary almost any outcome but a K gets the run in. The strikeout pitch from Kuroda was a beauty of a slider though.

[Grinder12000]

Last night! I did not see the ending either but I have to think that GoGo was pinched because he is SUCKING with guys on base! Almost embarrassing. Watching the Brewers last night makes THIS game so much harder to predict!! So close yet . . so far. Add "ALMOST" homeruns. Not even warning track power - more like leaning against the fence power!! Who did not think Prince's shot was not a home run.

Would we ever see someone walking the pitcher to get to Gomez?

And is it time to get away from the ump calling balls and strikes? is a 50% success rate acceptable? What about when the pitch is a foot outside and it's called a strike? Where is Tony Plush (aka Nyjer Morgon) when you need him!

OH Brewers -125 because I'm a homer!
Come on man - when do I get an easy game!

record 22-19 +2.02

This is a game of contradictions!

San Diego the toughest park to get a run. So what do the Brewers get? Dustin Moseley - a hack pitcher from the Yankees who is doing well in San Diego. He's a ground ball pitcher which is giving up a TON of flyballs in his last two hacky games.

Who know who this guy is. He's given up 11 runs in his last 2 games (9 innings total)yet still has a 3.40 ERA. He is 2-6 in games started but in 5 of those 6 losses the Padres have scored ONE run total. He has been shut out 4 times.

Moseley can not hold anybody on base - I believe Johnny Estrada could steal off him! He is a good fielder but is very very poor hitting which includes bunting and he will not seethe 6th inning!

Recently the Padres are hitting .340 and have been scoring 3.8 runs and hitting in 3.0 runs per game - pretty darn good!!! The Padres score MUCH more on the road and are now at home.

So on the Padres side we have a hot hitting team coming home where they suck and a hack ground ball pitcher that was hot but the last two games has given up a lot of flyballs and is not in the best pitcher park in the Majors.

Their bullpen has been getting a lot of work as the average starter goes just over 5 innings a game! Yet - the pen run average is 2.93 while the Starter run average is 8.16. So you have a tired bullpen pitching great. They have a success rating of 64% (meaning that 64% of the time their pen pitches effectively).

The Brewers are hitting .269 scoring 3 runs and RIBing 2.78 BUT are on the road. BRAIN HURT!!!

So in order to score you are going to need a lot of hits! Moseley is pitching a .257 batting average. Brewers are hitting .269 but but you look at his last two games and . . . . . . .

Gallardo has righted his ship and is pitching well and should do well in San Diego (except for that hot hitting Padre thing).

I have to stop typing as I'm just getting more and more confused - this has to be the toughest game this year for predicting. THEN you look at the line

This morning its the Brewers as pretty big favs at -126 and the Padres +116.

OH - did I mention that San Diego suck at home? Yea - 7-14 and the Brewers suck on the road? Yea 7-16. Give me a freaking break. IN the last 20 games the Brewers have an On Base of .293 and San Diego .325. San Diego has made the most errors in the league by a lot (Milwaukee 2nd most) and the Pad's have also given up a lot of HRs.

I want to pick San Diego but I'm really sucking at taking dogs being 4-8 -2.73

So I suppose since this is a toss up I'm on the Brewers and Gallardo. One thing I'll look for is the Brewers starting off hot tonight and then cooling off when teh pen comes in. The Brewers Bull pen is has a 68% success rate and is rested . . .enough.

[Richards]

great write up. you've got guts making a play every game...I'm staying away from MILW v SD tonite.

[jhack704]

under

[Grinder12000]

Thursday 5/19/11

I stayed up until the Brewers took the lead in the 6th and then had to hit the hay. Staying up until 12:30 and getting up at 5:45 was starting to wear on me (who knew!!). I think it showed in my golf game last night!

ANYWAY - I'm pretty confidant in today's pick and even put an extra 1/2 unit on the Run Line.

Won last night - I was sure I edited to put BREWERS -126. hmmmm

Record 23-19 +3.02

Last day of this odd road trip to cavernous pitcher parks where home runs go to die!

The San Diego bullpen is REALLY getting way too much work. Nine games in a row the Starters have failed to go 6 innings. When this streak started the pen was holding it's own but in the last 3 games and 9.33 innings they have given up 5 runs. So while the Starters have a Run Average of 7.84 the pen has been getting worse with the more work. Remember the Brewers last year when their pen was tired from over work? They just could not hold a lead or stop the bleeding.

This is something you might want to watch and fade the Pad's for a while if the starters keep this up.

Another interesting thing about the Pads is that at home they have a RC/27 of 3.09 and on the road 4.40 so while their pitching is 0.70 better at home their offense is 1.40 worse.

Today Harang who the Brewers CRUSH will try to be on the winning side for the 7th time. His ERA is a lofty 5.05 but if you take away two nightmare games (one being his last game) his ERA is actually 2.75. Still - against the current Brewers who have faced him in 186 ABS he has given up a .326 BA and a .500 SLG! In S.D. he has a 4.32 ERA with 70 innings vs. the Crew.

Harang will give up hits but can hold runners on base. He has no bat, can't bunt and has no range fielding. He does not throw a DP ball and is a flyball pitcher and don't be surprised with a wild pitch.

I'll be interested if Council bats today as he has Braun-like numbers vs. Harang in 37 ABs. .351 BA and a .514 Slugging!! Weird.

The Brewers who are actually hitting well. Top of the Order is .289 and MAN it's nice to see Hart hitting in the #2 spot. Since he had 3 days off 11 games ago he is hitting .361 with four doubles and a triple. Three of the doubles were warning track doubles missing HR's be a couple feet.

A lot of people dislike Gomez but I'm not one of them. What he does in the OF is truly amazing and if there is one problem you SHOULD be concerned over it's at SS.

Sure Betancorp is CRUSHING the ball when compared to Escobar this year but from 2009 up to last night there are only three WORSE shortstops defensively when it comes to zone defense! In that same time frame there are only 2 WORSE offensive players when it comes to wOBA (weighted On Base Percentage . .OBP with the number of bases taken into account) and one of those is Jason Kendall.

The Brewers REALLY need to get a Shortstop.

So tonight the Brewers bats should fair well against Harang.

But what of Narveson? The Pads are good vs. LHP for sure but take away his throw-up game his ERA is a solid 2.93. He's not giving up HR.s. I'm pretty confidant in his pitching as long as he is not hurling cookies between innings which seems to throw him off a little.

My advice is that he needs to be in the wind-up and not stretch. When runners are on he suffers! He's a very good hitting - expert bunter and is OK fielding. He can hold runners on but no DPs.

I'm all over the Brewers today at -107.

[mikey360]

Thank you Grinder, i've been riding this nice streak with you lately, I read every write up and its good stuff

[Grinder12000]

I'm sorry - I had the post all ready to Post and then clicked the wrong button! ERASE!!!!!

I can not recreate it - I'm playing the Brewers at -134.

In a nutshell - I'm picking the Brewer offense which is the best Home offense in the universe and Greinke!
DAMN IT - it was a good post too!!

[Grinder12000]

Saturday 5/21/11

Record 24-20 +2.95 units

Last nights game was one of the most dramatic games I've ever seem - not just the walk-off HR but the entire game was dramatic, it was like watching a movie!! THAT was entertainment.

Today's game has a new wrinkle in it by the name of Clayton Mortensen. The first thing that stands out is that the Brewers have a .750 BA against him . . . but only 4 At Bats so perhaps that is not indicative of future success.

Anyway - get on the Brewers ASAP - I put one unit on Milwaukee at -155 which is a steal and also a side bet on the Run Line at +140.

Here is why - Mortensen has pitched 59 innings in his career - he's a starter/releaver and does not have a lot of stamina and has never ever gone more then 6 innings meaning that the Rockie bullpen will come into play. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher that gives up home runs because he makes mistakes. Those mistakes are typically when someone is on base. His three starts this year are ALL against San Fransisco who in their last 20 games are 2nd to last in the league in scoring behind the Dodgers.

The crew is at home in homer rich Miller Park and I feel they will have success vs. this dude! He does not strike out many but does walk many.

But the kicker for the game is Marcum the Brewer Ace. The guy has not had a bad game yet! So you have two teams which can hit, one vs. a very very consistent ace who is 6-3 in games started and an inning eater. Marcum will need to eat some innings as the Brewer pen is in worse shape then the Rockies. You won't see Loe tonight which is too bad as he has had 5 good outings in a row. In fact the more I look at the pen the more it worries me a little.

But I think the crew will have some runs on the board tonight - if they don't we're in trouble. Axman is fine if needed and we might see Dillard tonight! The back end of the pen has been getting used a lot with all of these close games.

The Brewers are 9-4 since the road trip of death.

In last nights game Brewers issued ZERO walks over 14 innings and 6 pitchers! The longest no-walk outing since the Brewers were Nationalized.

And a note about Gomez - that guy creates so many problems when he get's on. People say that he is no good unless he can get his OB at a .300 clip. Well - I disagree. I believe his defense which is outstanding and his total chaos on the base paths justify (a little) his low OB. The upside of him is so much greater then the downside.

I would wager that he saves 1/2 a hit a game in the outfield. Yea - I can't wait for Morgon to come off the DL but Gomez - when on base paths is just a nightmare for a pitcher. So you can get down on the guy but he does have some redeeming value.

Brewers -155

[Richards]

Saturday 5/21/11

And a note about Gomez - that guy creates so many problems when he get's on. People say that he is no good unless he can get his OB at a .300 clip. Well - I disagree. I believe his defense which is outstanding and his total chaos on the base paths justify (a little) his low OB. The upside of him is so much greater then the downside.

Yeah, in the game you speak of it was quite entertaining watching the Rockies "freaking out" about Gomez on 1st base in the 8th inning. About 137 pick-off attempts by the Rockies' Betancourt, a pitch-out and he still steals 2nd base without even a throw.

Also, in the 14th inning when Fowler's bloop single drops in front of Braun, I find myself thinking "Gomez would have got to that."

It's tough to quantify his defensive plays but I think given all of his work his impact is slightly positive even on nights where he is racking up 3 K's like an American League Pitcher -- and much more positive other times when he DOES get on base.

[Grinder12000]

The one thing to remember is that Braun and Hart do not cover a LOT of ground in the OF and someone with Gomez's speed is needed to shrink the OF a little. Morgon is fast but I have not seen him THAT much yet.
-------------------------------------------------

I was all set to go with the Rockies today until I saw the line!

Record 25-20 +3.95

So as I was saying I was all set to go with the Rockies today because Jimenez seems to have found his groove again after a disastrous first part of the season where he was walking everybody insight. He is a ground ball pitcher that was walking batters and giving up a lot of flyballs - basically he was SUCKING.

Until his last game. The Brewer bats are not REAL active and the bottom of the order is contributing. What is swaying me is that Fielder and Weeks are doing well and really the Rockies are hitting about as well as Milwaukee.

The question is which Wolf will show up - Bad Wolf? GREAT Wolf or average Wolf. We have only seen average Wolf twice in 8 games - Four two and two with Four GREAT games.

OK - I'm running out of time today - The Brewers as dogs at home just seem wrong - if this was a road game I would be on the Rockies but at home I just can not go against them on this one.

The Crew will win a close one or get blown out! I think they have a chance to win and at +107 the price is right.

Colorado is 7-13 in their last 20 games and are not scoring on the road.

I can not bet against the best home team in American!

Brewers +107

[Grinder12000]

ALL RIGHT - who needs hits! 13 of the last 17 baby!!!

[mikey360]

Nice job Grinder

[Grinder12000]

Monday 5/23/11

Do ya think the Brewers have a score to settle with Washington?

My Record 26-20 +5.02

Who needs more then 2 hits anyway!! I don't know about you guys but winning with 2 hits and then the next day you have Gallardo pitching . . .then the next you have Narveson who is really pitching like the #2 guy in the rotation and THEN Greinke AND THEN Marcum . . . . I can't remember ever not having 2 or 3 BIG holes in the starting rotation.

Today the Brewers meet up with a struggling Washington team who are 9 - 11 in the last 20, 10-16 on the road with a .224 avg and a .296 OBA and a .354 SLG. In their last 4 series the top of the line up is hitting .224 scoring 1.78 runs and RBIing 1.56 runs per game. That INCLUDES one game where they scored 17 runs!!!

Washington does have one big redeeming quality. Thei bullpen has been fantastic - the best pen I have seen this year. 1,44 ERA in the last 4 series and they have only given up runs in 2 games and really only one bad outing.

Pitching today is lefty Tom Gorzelanny an extreme flyball pitcher. The Brewers do have some problems vs. LHP, particularly Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt(who is a hole anyway) and Gorzelanny did give up only 2 runs in 6 innings last time they met - - IN WASHINGTON (remember that sweep?).

But away from Washington Gorzelanny has pretty much sucked and over the last three years he has a 5.60 ERA away from home. At Miller Park Gorz has pitched 14 innings and given up Five ( 5 ) home runs. He is not a fan of Miller Park.

One thing the Nationals do not do is make errors! Only 4 in the last 20 games

Don't expect the Brewers to sit back and wait for a good pitch. Opponents hit .396 and have a +.700 slugging very early in the count so expect the Brewers to go up swinging.

The Brewers are winning on pitching and just enough hitting. top of the order is hitting .251 with 2.7 Runs and 2.4 RBIs and as we all know are potent at home.

Gallardo has pitched 3 good games in a row and has righted the ship but then there is the bullpen. Axford will not pitch tonight after going 3 nights in a row. So many close games are starting to wear the back end of the pen out a little. Loe and Hawkins are available and the rest have all had bad outings recently. A close game could be a problem.

Washington is on a nightmare road trip losing 4 out of 5 and I would love to see another sweep (do one to others . . . . ). In those 5 games they have scored 0,0,17,3,1

The line is large (as it should be)

Brewers -170
Nationals +155

a line of +155 always should be looked at as an opportunity but in this case there is just to much momentum on the Brewers side.

Brewers -175

[Grinder12000]

So while some people are following some dude saying he will win 150 units this year and lying through his teeth with results I've won a very quiet unnoticed 14 out of the last 18.

Record 27-20 +6.02

Tuesday 5/24/11

I was looking for a reason to NOT bet the Brewers today and before I saw the line I figured if the Nats were a heavy dog I would have to consider it. They are not and should be.

Chris Narveson has been one of the most consistent pitchers for the Brewers but is 2-7 in games started. 0-5 on the road and 2-2 at home. Washington has done very poorly vs. LHP's scoring 1 one less per game and this should continue. A poor hitting team, on the road vs. a lefty! Gotta like it.

Really not a lot to say about tonight's game - you might see Council at SS and maybe Kotsey in CF as both have a lot of AB's vs. Hernandez with very good success. Livan has pitched pretty well the last few outings but his offense behind him has only scored ONE run in his last 4 starts. So while he might be able to slow the Brewer offense he might have to slow them to 1 run.

Hernandez pitches to contact and the Brewers are contacting very well. He has been making FB outs a little more then his career totals and has never pitched in Miller Park.

So with Narveson pitching well, the Brewer bats knocking down doors, the bullpen rested (one more day would be nice)and 17-6 at home combined with Washington very poor vs. LHP and poor in general, 10-17 on the road and 1-5 on this road trip -153 seems like a good deal - certainly taking the Nats at +138 would be tossing the dice hoping for a miracle.

Brewers -153

[mikey360]

Grinder, i've been playing your picks since I found the thread, so you have cashed me some nice $ lately, much appreciated.

Someone did a similar thread to yours, cant remember if it was last season or the one before but they only played on Marlins games, it was pretty good, its why I took notice of your thread, someone that knows a team really well and focusses solely on that teams matches definetely provides some extra information you normally wouldn't find, keep this thing rolling.

[Grinder12000]

Thanks Miket360 - my constant problem doing this is trying to notice if I become a homer. I found earlier this season I lost a few games just because I WANTED the team to win. However now with more games certain trends are developing and just plain old experience. I know "I" have never attempted anything like this so it's been a learning experience for me also.

I wish I would have taken my own advice and faded the Padres after they were done with the Brewers - they have yet to win a game and I would be 4-0 fading them. When is it to late to jump on the fade wagon!

[lunchbawks]

I got the RL @ +145 last night. Goodluck

[Grinder12000]

lunchbawks - I was goign to RL it yesterday but that line was not out yet and I brain farted and forgot yesterday morning. I've been placing the wager about 9:00 every day - I wonder if I'm getting a good or bad line - what have you guys been seeing???

[SlaytheBook]

nice work grinder. keep it up and thanks for sharing!

[Grinder12000]

OH man - was that entertainment last night or WHAT? Talk about a stressful ending. The crowd is on their feet, Axford is having his way with the batters, strike strike strike and the announcers are announcing the player of the game and wrapping things up and as Axford strikes out his third batter making the dude look like a fool, the pitch bounces away and all of a sudden the tying run is on 1st, then 1st and 2nd, then the bases loaded and the guy that hit the grand slam earlier is up! HOLY SHIT WHAT HAPPENED!!!!!

It's all good! So Lucroy the player of the game is all pissed at himself.

Wednesday 5/25/11

Record 28-20 +7.02

Can we sweep AGAIN? We need to because no one is stopping the Cards!!

Today the Brewers go up against Jason Marquis an actual average to poor pitcher. He is 7-2 in games he has started but don't get fooled - he has gotten runs when he pitches. He has not done very well at all on the road posting a 5.71 ERA which is actually a lot better then last years road ERA which was 6.75 and the year before was 4.16.

He pitched against the Brewers a few weeks ago and gave up 9 singles in 7 innings but I think that at the moment the Brewers are hitting much better then the last time they met.

Granted Lucroy will probably not play which is all of a sudden a pretty big bat not in the line-up. I wonder if this will be like a Sunday game? I have to be careful now that Sundays seem to be the "B" line-up day.

Marquis seems to pitch deep into games which is good for Washington as their previously good pen has sucked 3 of the last 4 games and while their offense seem good last night remember 4 of their 6 runs were from one swing of the bat against a struggling Narveson.

For the Brewers the only bat not hitting is McGehee (well Gomez and Betancourt but they never hit so that is factored in) which I'm worried about but maybe he will come around. The rest of the top of the line-up is el fuego. Weeks is showing signs of life again after going 10 games without an RBI. Braun is good as long as he keeps his helmet on, Fielder has 5 extra base hits in the last 7 games and hopefully Lucroy will play with a day off tomorrow!

Greinke - we keep waiting for him to get Greinke-like but remember this is only his 5th game. It took Gallardo 7 games to find himself and the other starters already have 11 games started - for Greinke this is still VERY early in the season.

The Brewer pen was outstanding last night and it would be nice to give Ax a night off but otherwise the pen is in good shape with a day off tomorrow!

So while I believe the Brewer line of -170 is a little pricey - do I really want to go against a hot hot hot team with a former Cy Young pitcher on the mound vs. a struggling offense and average to poor pitcher?

No!

Brewers -170.