Corey Hart playing today?
-
Comment -
Gallardo having a tough time starting things off today, dude is getting rocked.Comment -
What happened to Gallardo? He is just terrbileComment -
Close one, Brewers just couldn't get a lead but made it close, entertaining game.Comment -
tie game bottom of the 8th bases loaded 1 out and they fail to score and then go down easy in he 9th and 10th.
Nice comeback to get that close but in the end they choked when they had the game in their hands at home.
Mitre is garbage they shouldn't have put him in the game in the 10th if they cared about winning.
Been nice to see Axford pitch the 10th.Comment -
sigh - I guess having Gallardo pitch to contact was a good idea but against the wrong team! Top of the order sucked - Brewers are awkward against ground ball pitches! and pitchers that throw 106.
1st 5 outings by Mitre were good - last two sucked!
Glad you appreciate my writing because I sure am picking wrong - longest losing streak now at 3. Lost every game this series!! 2-4 when Brewers play the Reds -1.72 units 10-8 +2.8 in non-red games BRING ON HOUSTON.Comment -
If Gallardo hadn't got shellacked in the first the Brewers probably would have won, keep at it Grinder, you'll get back on track soon.Comment -
LOL - not sure how many Nyjer Morgan fans there are (I love the guy) but he has an alter-ego on Twitter that is pretty funny.
Check out TONY PLUSH!!!
Plush thinks there’s nothing so bracing as a home plate collision. It’s as vitalizing as a brisk November breeze on the cheek, a life-force.Coach Roenicke saw that Plush’s light was still on. He knocked, and said, “Tony, go to sleep. I’m gonna need your Plushdamentals tomorrow.”LOL - I love this guy!In light of today’s disappointing lineup news, Plush will now go practice Plushdamentals by barreling into Wil Nieves once or thrice.
https://twitter.com/#!/Tony_PlushComment -
A TINY bit hung over today as last night was Home Brew Club night and it seemed EVERYBODY had something to try!!
First thing you do is get a bet on the Brewers at -135 then come back and I'll have this updated.
This one seems a little easy.
First thing you look at is how does Marcum fair against the Astros and you see they bat .379 against him. But actually Bill Hall hits .700 and the rest all have like 3 ABs so toss that one out.
Then what about Brett Myers - he has seem 129 Brewer batters and they hit a robust .329 and a .512 Slugging but here is kicker #1.
Brett see's a lot of batters as the average swinger only see's 3.6 pitches. Plus his stats all line-up correctly vs. the Brewers. A fly ball pitcher, lower WHIP then they have seen lately (which they like) and yada yada.
The Astro top of the lineup are hitting decent enough .279 with 3 runs and and 2.90 RBIs But STILL the Brewers are in mostly dead air Miller Park are .322 4.50 and 3.5 RBI's
But what REALLY turns the head is the Astro Bullpen is dead! She's dead Jim!
In the last 3 games they have pitched 227 pitches. In theior last 10 games the pen has a 8.62 run average. You might think the Brewers pen sucks but not so much actually with a 4.67 Run average.
So IF this is close going into the 7th - Brewers have a huge advantage. Might even play the Runline on this one for shits and giggles.
Here's a shot I had the other day on a rainy Reds win grrrrrr I'll have more in the future - this MIGHT be too big. I'm a free lance fine art photog in my alternate life. .Comment -
Nice picture there, you painted that?
I like the brewers today, in fact I may play them each game against Houston, reckon they take at least 2 games.Comment -
Nope enhanced photograph - yea - might be a good idea - Gallardo won't pitch! Who knew that Gallardo would be the bum and Wolf would be the ace! Didn't see that one coming!Comment -
Excellent win last night - not counting it in the record but I put an extra unit on the Run Line (I'm anti-run line normally) I was so sure this would be an easy win!
Record 13-12 +2.59 not getting rich but on a pace to win 29 units at the moment.
Today a rematch Wolf vs. Rodriguez. Last time out Brewers won 4-1. Something I noticed is that if you look at the adjusted standings at Baseball Prospectus the Brewers and Houston are on opposite sides . Brewers SHOULD have more victories and Astros SHOULD have more losses.
This time I'm looking at the line at -127. The last time the two met in Milwaukee it was -145. I actually think the Brewers have a better chance today as they re not playing in dead air Miller Park (much better when roof is open) as opposed to Minute Made Park.
Briken record time - Brewers bats are STILL zooming while Houston are not BAD but certainly not up to the Brewers! So then we have to look at pitching.
Randy Wolf - WOW - could be the best 3 games of ANY pitcher for the Brewers that I can remember! 20.3 innings - 9 hits, 5 BB and 19Ks with a 0.44 ERA and that is not including 6 innings 2 ER vs. Cubs! WOW - can you really go AGAINST that? Some would say yes but man - how would you feel if you went against Wolf and lost! DAA!!! I'm a contrairian but even I can't bet against him.
Plus the fact that he owns Houston (.213avg .331 SLG)
Rodriguez pitched a good game against the Brewers but he IS a flyball pitcher. The brewers hit a lot of ground balls his last time out . . anomaly? Plus Wandy has pitched 244 pitches his last 2 games after pitching in the 80s his 1st three. Not actually to rare for him as he goes deep into the count many times. Not so much this year as he has been pitching to contact which the Brewers like.
Houston pen is still a little tired - not enough to keep people out of the game but still they have a 7.47 Run Average in the last 10 games and have given up at least 1 run in 7 of the last 8 games.
Milwaukee has had 5 very good outings in a row (talking the entire pen, not just Mitre who had 5 good outings and 2 bad ones now). Milwaukee pen has a 3.63 Run average last 10 games.
No run line play today but I'll take the Brewers at -127.
Photo of the day - these are mammoth vacuums that the Brewers use when that play the Cubs at Miller Park - the suck up Chicago drunks I think.
Comment -
Good luck, The betters look to be with Milw.Comment -
nice info on the brewers, this game is a tough call but wandy is a solid home dog. Only problem is that he will have to pitch a prefect game and he is 2-7 SU after 3 or more losses as well. Good luck todayComment -
Houston batting .362 vs lefties at home, Wolf better have his best stuff tonight.Comment -
But no power - opponents are batting slightly less vs. LHP but WAY more power!Houston batting .362 vs lefties at home, Wolf better have his best stuff tonight.Comment -
More bone headed baserunning from Gomez last night. How many times has he been putout on the basepaths just doing something dumb? I'm not talking about going for an extra base or something. I can think of 4 this season.
I really like Gomez's potential, don't get me wrong, but his value to the brewers is being ON BASE. Scoring from 2nd on a short single, etc.
I have a small play on the Brewers today. Can't call this much of a trend, but looking at Narveson's game logs from 2010 he was almost always solid coming off a poor start, a bounce back start, so to speak.Comment -
SUNDAY 5/1/2011
When the Brewers tied it up in the top of the 9th I was pretty much chalking up a win! BUT NOOOOO BUT HEY - I'm still in the black.
Record 13-13 +1.32 WINNING MONEY!!! lol
I have a pet peeve - do you guys ever read threads that start with "Extremely experimental picks" or "loser picks" or "Cry with me on these picks" - COME ON MAN - they start with an apology for losing - like yea - I'll run with you on your loser picks any day!
anyway - Let's make it simple The Brewers are WLWLWLWLWL the last 10 games - it's time for a "W".
The Astros just can not hit 2.30 runs and 2.50 RBI's the last 10 games with an OK .275 average but zero power - notice last night!! The only reason we lost was because of a pitching anomaly - their starters have a 5.26 Run average and their pen has a 7.52 Run average in the last 10 games! The
The Brew Crew are 4.00 and 3.66 with a .330 Average. Pitching is 4.18 and the pen is 3.86.
"Bud" Norris (real name is David but he drinks Bud - the best gag reflex rice beer in St. Louis) has pitched 6 innings in 5 of his last 6 games so we should be seeing the Astro pen for 3 innings.
Narveson, when not throwing up between innings, has been throwing great and I feel at -124 have a better then a 55% chance to win the rubber game.
Both pens are in good shape tired-wise advantage Brewers.
In the last 12 games Braun is hitting .440 with 6 HRs and 2B
In those same 12 games Fielder is only hitting .320 3 HR,s 3 3Bs and a 3B but all three HR's ar in the last 4 games
Nice th see McGehee get 2 hits - he was hot before he hurt his thumb.
Betatcorp was hot up to last night!
I hope you are all following the adventures of Tony Plush aka Nyjer Morgon alter ego - pretty funny - looks like he is coming back Tuesday
https://twitter.com/#!/Tony_PlushDear DL Diary, Day 10: After his first start in weeks, Plush will not trumpet his 2-for-3 line, his stolen base, his base on balls.
What Plush does not expect—cannot accept—is getting picked off first. It is an act so anathema to Plushdamentals that Plush was devastated.
Comment -
Originally posted by Grinder12000
Ya I hear ya. I suppose this is a reflex to people on SBR propensity to bash and flame the hell out of anyone who doesn't post 75% winners, the same people who don't have the guts to post their own plays, or at least not before the game
I haven't posted many plays myself, but you won't see me flame someone for posting a play that loses.
Keep up the good picks!Comment -
True True - I've never been better then a loser at MLB but I've always tried to do it with systems and so forth! Takes guts to post plays. also a pet peeve is this type of post
Like . . OK - any reason? just pulling teams out of mid air? Is is statistical? I guess I'm having a pet peeve day. Freaking wind in Wisconsin is irritating me this weekend.Cleveland, Cubs, Dodgers! Braves.Comment -
MONDAY 5/2/11 vs. Braves
WOW - that last part of April sucked. Now today the Crew go to Atlanta. I've learned a few things in this 1st month such as the Brewers, on the road are not as potent so I'm taking that into account. Plus I know more about the kind of pitching that is giving the Crew problems. SO - we shall see
Record! 13-14 +0.11 STILL A WINNER!!!! LOL
I just do not think Gallardo is THAT bad! If you look at his last outing where I'm sure they told him to pitch to contact and he did and they did and the Crew were down by 3 before there was even an out!
Atlanta offense is like Houston - it's there but nothing to get excited about. What Atlanta is doing right is their starting pitching but today their bullpen is a tad tired - or I should say the key players are tired and the untired ones are also the ineffective ones of late.
Brewers offense struggled the last 2 games and Jurrjens has been pitching well but his three starts have all been in pitcher friendly parks and three of the lower scoring teams in the league but overall the Crew the last 10 games the top of the line up has been productive and over all in the last 20 games the Brewers have scored the 3rd most runs in the league.
As a team Atlanta has an on base in Gomez territory - both Milwaukee and Atlanta have bottom of the order problems.
Brewer pitching has been pretty good lately, it just does not feel like it. I think because the Brewers sucked so bad the last 2 games and Gallardo who is a very good pitcher has suck the last 4 games that the line is skewed. +140 seems like a good bet and I'm REALLY not trying to be a homer.
I told myself before I saw the line that anything decent for Atlanta like in the -120 range I would take the Braves but at -140 it just seems to much to pay. Four of the last 6 losses have been extra innings or by 1 run so it's not like the Crew is getting bitch slapped around.
New town, new attitude and hope as Morgon and Grenike come abroad Tuesday and FINALLY the team is what the Brewers envisioned in spring training.
Morgon might replace Gomez in center at some point. I'm not sure Gomez has any natural baseball sense!
BREWERS +130Comment -
Good luck today Grinder, hopefully Brewers bats wake up today, they really were woefully cold the last two games.Comment -
lets hope they get the heads out of their ass and get back in the w column gl
Comment -
can never count out the brew crew with those batsComment -
Prince Fielder needs to leave town already!Comment -
Yes, but part of me hopes Estrada will continue to get some starts. Don't know how that might happen unless someone else is hurt or Gallardo really shits the bed another 3-4 starts.Originally posted by Grinder12000
Yeah. Really want the guy to succeed, all the tools, except the brains. Either that or he has too much of the Latin American Trickster mentality in him for his own good.
Morgon might replace Gomez in center at some point. I'm not sure Gomez has any natural baseball sense!
BREWERS +130
Game's just getting started. Was thinking about making the same play here but couldn't pull the trigger with too many questions marks around Gallardo and brewer bats.Comment -
one on the brewers @ +126 local.
good luck. god speed. thanks for the insightful analysis.
great writing! let's get 'em.Comment -
F*CK ME!!!
Richards - well played LOL and agree Plus - whats with all the running errors for Gomez!!
TUESDAY 5/2/11 vs. Atlanta
Record 13-15 -0.89
To say disappointing would be an understatement. If you watched the game two things stood out. Gallardo did not pitch a bad game even though the stats say otherwise - He reminded me of Randy Wolf (or was it Bush . . .or Navarro) - pitch well enough to win until the other team strings hits together - OR - until Fielder pushes Hart off a pop up and drops it.
Two - Brewers should have been shut out except for a miss played bomb by what some say is a Gold Glove (but statistically is not).
HOWEVER - I've been looking at the problem and some would say the Brewers suck offensively on the road but if you look deeper and look at all the games played this year there is a tell (poker term there).
In the 17 games the Brewers have played against a pitcher with a >.300 BABIP (Batting Average with Balls In Play) they produce (Runs + RBIs) 4.05 runs. In the 14 games they have gone up against <.300 7.37. In 5 of the last 6 games >.300 for a 3.00 average. Not saying it is a trend but how about a . . . trend of interest!
It gets curious-er - Same trends with going against high WHIP pitchers - just as bad! Low WHIP pitchers they are almost twice as productive.
Let's cut to the chase.
Last night I said "Rod, there is NO FREAKING WAY you are betting on the Brewers tomorrow"
So today I'm betting on the Brewers +148 - Hanson fits into the kind of pitcher the Brewers like. Low ERA, low BABIP and Low WHIP! it's like they come out and say "Let's get serious". And the Crew have actually done well against Hanson in the past 3 years!
Estrada has done well and even I did not trust him so think about the betting public!!
What I worry about not is not that I seem to be a homer always betting on the Crew - it's that I might actually go the other way BECAUSE I seem to be a homer. This is tough!
If the Brewers are flat again tonight it's a true slump and I'll be fading them (unless I come up with more garbage). The Braves still do not excite me on offense. Both pens are good and pretty equal.
is it me or does every time Gomez hit a Home Run you can pretty much figure 90% of his outs will be deep fly outs for a while!!
Weeks - no runs OR RBIs for 4 games . McGehee 1 run no RBI's for 5 games - in the last 10 games Atlanta Starters have given up exactly 2 runs games! In those same 7 games their pen has given 12 total runs.
So - ONE LAST TIME BREWERS +148Comment -
last night was looking good until Gallardo started walking too many on, it was one bad inning that cost the game.
Hopefully tonight... they will win.Comment -
You know mikey360 - words like that, which I totally believe are true - still, are starting to sound like excuses.
NOTE - Gomez has a .231 OBA on the road which is actually 20 points higher then Bettencorp! SWEET!! At least there is hope for YuniComment -
Thinking about playing Under 7.5 on this game. I Like Estrada's pitching, but will Brewer bats wake up tonight?
Anybody know if Morgan is STARTING tonight? He's a sparkplug -- maybe enough to keep me away from the Under play.Comment -
They said he would platoon BUT also said he was playing! So I THINK he is starting! Atlanta is a good park to NOT hit home runs! Could be low scoring but . . .atlanta is a power club - just no one getting on baseComment -
Greinke's big day. Lot's of Milw fans looking forward to this day, but starting pitching has been by and large ok, it's the bats I'm worried about. But getting Morgan and Grienke back will be a nice addition to the team.Comment -
zack greinke goin tonight in game 2 of their double header. i think this time two years ago his era was about 0.50
i wonder what hes gonna do and be here. me and my friends have invented a phrased called gettin greinked....thats when you only give up 1 run but lose 1 nothing. i dont think thats gonna happen to him here but it use to all the time before the royals started playing decently.Comment -
gotta think bats are goin to get it going soon, glComment
