Formally Houston/Brewer series thread
Record 11-9 +4.31
Had a few things right last night but in the end - the Brewer pen let me down. The bullpen for the Crew has become a small problem but in this series . . anything can happen. And once I get a little down at the Brewer pen I look at the Astros and feel much better. The Phillie series was so easy to predict but this series has so many little crazy things in it.
OK today we have WANDY Rodriguez going against Wolf.
Rodriguez - sigh - wow where do you begin. In his four games Wandy has pitched against teams that score an average of 4.45L, 4.30L, 4.21L, 4.60W - The Brewers are 4.70 so this will be his biggest test. Wandy is pretty bad on the road. In the last three years he has a 2.59 ERA at home and a 4.25 ERA on the road. Wandys average "Game Score" at home is 57.72 while on the road it's 47.39 in the last 2 years. He also, on average, he does not get to the 6th inning on the road.
This is big as the Astro bullpen is actually worse then you think. While they have a 4.19 ERA their defense is ballooning the pens runs per game up to a staggering 5.49. Plus - something Brewers fans are very familiar with - the Astro pen is tired! 9 pitchers and 186 pitches this series so far compared the the Brewers 140 and 9 pitchers, that's like an extra 5 innings.
Probably won't see Melancone or Abad or Lyon which is basically the entire back end of the bull pen!
On the other hand the Houston bats are coming alive against the Brewers which makes me nervous. Houston was pretty quite coming into Milwaukee but have awaken!
Milwaukee - Wolf - 1st thing I did was to look at all of Wolfys past performances - he has pitched two games in a row with a Game Score in the 70s. Remember I looked at Halladay and discovered that Halladay always had a bad outing his 3rd time out after back to back 70's and . . it works out great. Wolf? Not too worried.
Wolf seems to get on a streak and while he has only been back to back 70s a few times when he does get hot he stays hot. In 2002 he had 4 +70s in a row. So I'm not REAL worried about a big let down. He seems streaky!
Wolf has pitched against team scoring 4.60W, 3.89W, 4.30L 5.37L and Houston is 4.60. Wolf is slightly better at home and slightly better in Day games and is pretty even LHH vs. RHH (Rodriguez tends to be a little worse vs. Right hand hitters and Braun OWNS him).
Listening to the game last night I was worried about Council leading off for the injured Weeks - once I really thought about it I hated the idea, then he goes 2 for 6 with two runs! I don't like Weeks out of the line-up but I feel the brewers can overcome this (and better defense).
Fielder has not hit an HR in 9 games and won't today against Rodriguez but Braun might. What can't he hit at the moment! Brewers have a slugging vs. LHP of .335 and against RHP .450 but this is where the brewers have a higher kicker. The Astros have zero usable Lefties in their pen and once Rodriguez is remove with 2 outs in the 5th . . . . actually he might go longer with only long and middle relievers in the pen. It's all down hill for Houston.
I'm feeling better about this game - remember yesterday my spidey senses for tingeing, Win big or lose.
Today - just win against a bullpen that ii giving up runs
Cliff notes
Rodriguez + 0.5 Brewers
Wolf +1.0 Brewers
Houston Pen -1.5
Milwaukee pen -0.5
Houston bats +.75
Milwaukee Bats +1.1
I'm just making that crap up you know.
Brewers -145 145 to win 100
WHAT I'M ATTEMPTING DO DO
I've been handicapping since the late 70's - systems numbers guy - but with baseball - my true love - I sucked! So I told a friend - "using my BRAIN - I will bet on or against the Brewers every game this year - probably learning as I go - many people say "I knew they would win I picked that game" well - I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
I've been handicapping since the late 70's - systems numbers guy - but with baseball - my true love - I sucked! So I told a friend - "using my BRAIN - I will bet on or against the Brewers every game this year - probably learning as I go - many people say "I knew they would win I picked that game" well - I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Had a few things right last night but in the end - the Brewer pen let me down. The bullpen for the Crew has become a small problem but in this series . . anything can happen. And once I get a little down at the Brewer pen I look at the Astros and feel much better. The Phillie series was so easy to predict but this series has so many little crazy things in it.
OK today we have WANDY Rodriguez going against Wolf.
Rodriguez - sigh - wow where do you begin. In his four games Wandy has pitched against teams that score an average of 4.45L, 4.30L, 4.21L, 4.60W - The Brewers are 4.70 so this will be his biggest test. Wandy is pretty bad on the road. In the last three years he has a 2.59 ERA at home and a 4.25 ERA on the road. Wandys average "Game Score" at home is 57.72 while on the road it's 47.39 in the last 2 years. He also, on average, he does not get to the 6th inning on the road.
This is big as the Astro bullpen is actually worse then you think. While they have a 4.19 ERA their defense is ballooning the pens runs per game up to a staggering 5.49. Plus - something Brewers fans are very familiar with - the Astro pen is tired! 9 pitchers and 186 pitches this series so far compared the the Brewers 140 and 9 pitchers, that's like an extra 5 innings.
Probably won't see Melancone or Abad or Lyon which is basically the entire back end of the bull pen!
On the other hand the Houston bats are coming alive against the Brewers which makes me nervous. Houston was pretty quite coming into Milwaukee but have awaken!
Milwaukee - Wolf - 1st thing I did was to look at all of Wolfys past performances - he has pitched two games in a row with a Game Score in the 70s. Remember I looked at Halladay and discovered that Halladay always had a bad outing his 3rd time out after back to back 70's and . . it works out great. Wolf? Not too worried.
Wolf seems to get on a streak and while he has only been back to back 70s a few times when he does get hot he stays hot. In 2002 he had 4 +70s in a row. So I'm not REAL worried about a big let down. He seems streaky!
Wolf has pitched against team scoring 4.60W, 3.89W, 4.30L 5.37L and Houston is 4.60. Wolf is slightly better at home and slightly better in Day games and is pretty even LHH vs. RHH (Rodriguez tends to be a little worse vs. Right hand hitters and Braun OWNS him).
Listening to the game last night I was worried about Council leading off for the injured Weeks - once I really thought about it I hated the idea, then he goes 2 for 6 with two runs! I don't like Weeks out of the line-up but I feel the brewers can overcome this (and better defense).
Fielder has not hit an HR in 9 games and won't today against Rodriguez but Braun might. What can't he hit at the moment! Brewers have a slugging vs. LHP of .335 and against RHP .450 but this is where the brewers have a higher kicker. The Astros have zero usable Lefties in their pen and once Rodriguez is remove with 2 outs in the 5th . . . . actually he might go longer with only long and middle relievers in the pen. It's all down hill for Houston.
I'm feeling better about this game - remember yesterday my spidey senses for tingeing, Win big or lose.
Today - just win against a bullpen that ii giving up runs
Cliff notes
Rodriguez + 0.5 Brewers
Wolf +1.0 Brewers
Houston Pen -1.5
Milwaukee pen -0.5
Houston bats +.75
Milwaukee Bats +1.1
I'm just making that crap up you know.
Brewers -145 145 to win 100
over the 3rd. When I placed my bet last night, the ML was -110. I have my fingers crossed. I've got 3 units on it tonight.
