I think I still have to go with the brew Crew today. They have been playing really well!
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Originally posted by Grinder12000It's 4:22 in the morning and I'm about to get on the road for a sunrise shoots - I'm on THE STROS today. Brewers are -145 and they do not do well in -145 even though I feel this should be easy something does not seem right (like bing up a 4:00 in the morning).
Linemakers know what they are doing.
Astros seem like cookies and I'll lose today so don't go on my words (of which there are none). Myers has been pitching well, don't look at his ERA which is not indicative of his pitching (like Greinke). Home team is like 17-9 in this series lately. Narvo is not a good road pitchers.
ASTROS +133
If case you are wondering what I've been doing all day - here is one shot. Its really been a rough so far. :-)
???, The Brewers have been a cash cow since July of last year going 19-2 140+ fav vs a divisional oppt that is behind them in divisional standings.Comment -
OK OK - I lost - what can I say.
Today - Brewers -168 and I'm pretty confidant! JMon - good point on the 19-2 but I was concentrating on the road thing. The problem the Brewers have had on the road is playing better then average teams on the road.
My problem yesterday was Narveson.
ANYWAY - Brewers -168 and -103 with the run line - going half and half today.Comment -
I am going with the win for -168. The Brewers are looking good and lets take it to the bank.Comment -
Tuesday - Record 60-49 +7.55
Both teams have pretty easy schedules for the rest of the year. The Brewers have 25 home and 22 away games. The only team with a winning % they play besides the Cards are the Phillies with 4 games at home.
The Cards have 28 home and 19 away games with 16 games against teams above .500
Here is the difference between the Cards and Brewers. The Cards are a team that needs to get all juiced up to play well. They need LaRussa to get the team charged up, they play better when their testosterone is at a high level.
The Brewers on the other hand are a laid back team. They go out and have fun and when they are relaxed they play their best. So when LaRussa starts all of his shenanigans HE thinks he is getting the Crew off their game. But so far it looks like the Brewers are just ho-humming. Let the Cards get all anal we're not changing. HOWEVER - the main players, Braun and Fielder LOVE the banter between the two teams. So the right guys on the Brewers get charged up.
On the other hand the Cards are getting overheated and doing dumb things. LaRussa is very very good at taking a team with problems and making them contenders.
If you look at the two teams pens their basic stats are almost EXACTLY the same. Same exact inning pitched 327.1 same batting average .249. However - St. Louis pen has a higher OPB, higher SLG, higher OPS. MANY MANY more HBP (go figure)and twice as many IBB.
Today I'm on the Brewers at +108. In the last 20 games the Brewers have a team ERA of 2.61, the Cards are a decent 3.45.
Back to today - Edwin Jackson has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)of 3.54 and an ERA of 4.11 meaning the defense behind him is not helping.
Marcums FIP is 3.77 and his ERA is actually better at 3.58.
I think Marcum will do well in St. Louis. He has HR problems in Miller Park and just does much much better on the road. I believe he will be relaxed in a pitcher friendly park.
Brewers +108Comment -
Sometimes there is no need to really get deep. Keep It Simple Stupid.
Do you really want to go against a team that has won 12 of it's last 13 games.
And when the 12 in the last 13 are underdogs this just cries out - TAKE THE DOG.
Brewers +116
Record 61-49 +8.63
Keeping it SimpleComment -
Call me a lemming but I'm riding the Brewers until they lose - I mean come-on 13 of the last 14 and they are +120 dogs?
Brewers +120
BTW - Dan Uggla - hitting .220 and has a 30 game hitting streak??
Record 62-49 +9.80
Also putting $$ on the Packers - point spread is EVEN.Comment -
I'm with you on the Brewers today. They've hit Carpenter pretty well this yr. +120 seems like a good valueComment -
Finally lost. No worries! I had to play the Brewers. Only 1 unit.
Today the Crew are home against reeling Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are 5-15 in their last 20 games and are hitting .242 (only SF is worse) and scoring a solid 3.6 runs again (only SF is worse and they scoring 2.3 runs a game).
The Pirates have 3 less homeruns then the Brewers but are making a lot of errors so there league worse 5.36 ERA should be much higher. Brewers have the league best ERA in the last 20 at 2.75. OH - Pitts have given up a league worse 31 HR so in HR friendly Miller Park . . . . watch out!
This game SHOULD be -300 for Milwaukee so -205 is actually a bargain.
Brewer Numbers in the last 20.
Betencorp is hitting .377 .481 SLG
Fielder .343 .575 SLG
Braun .342 .605 SLG
Hart .333 .533 SLG
Morgon .294
And those are the top 5 guys with ABS
Brewers -205Comment -
Grinder will you be continuing your picks or have you decided to take a break, have followed your thread from early on, played every pick and made some nice money so whatever you plan on doing I appreciate what you've done here.Comment -
its easy when they keep winning! and its even better they are my team, im going to the game weds! go greinke!Comment
