BREWERS - Season long write-ups

[Grinder12000]

Danny Herrera is not the magic we thought he was.

WOW - can a guy come in and have a worse two games with a new team? NO - he can't and now he is gone - BYE BYE - SO LONG - please accept a copy of our home game on the way out the door.

Record 37-32 +2.61 Lost 5 in a row!
--------------------------------

The Brewers had a real chance last night but two things happened. One was Marcum - didn't see that one coming - hip flexer?? hip flexers are a group of skeletal muscles that act to flex the femur (thigh bone) onto the lumbo-pelvic complex, i.e., pull the knee upward. He pulled it.

That was the 1st problem - then the kicker was that amazing DP which killed a huge inning for the Brewers and at that exact moment - the entire game changed. Pedroia is fielding Gomez of 2B. Anyone notice Slumpy McGoo has 6 RBIs in the last 4 games?

Brewer 9-15 when no home runs are hit.
----------------------------------
Today - I just can not see the Brewers ever being +160.

Jon Lester is a LHP which the gives the Brewers problems but he has been having problems at home. He is 3-2 in games started at home and and 6-3 on the road. He he has been getting hit at night. He has a 4.83 ERA at Fenway.

Wolf has been outstanding this year and Boston does a little worse vs LHP. The Sox lost Crawford which only hurts them fielding as he is an OUTSTANDING fielder but horrible vs. LHP.

Both bull pens are rested except for the Brewers long relievers and the Boston closer.

Brewers need so innings out of Wolf today.

I've lost what 5 in a row!

The Brewer pitching is not as bad as you might think. A lot can be put on our hero Danny Herrera who single handedly, in clutch situation gave up home runs. His ERA was 21.60 and does not include the 4 runners on base that scored when he entered the game. In fact he is sort of a closer FOR THE OTHER TEAM. He came in and the opponents basically won the game after he was done!

Brewers +160

Hey guys - I'm trying. This is a big game for the Brewers vs. LHPs. If they lose I might have to never play them vs. LHP again!

[HoulihansTX]

Brewers are outclassed here.

[Grinder12000]

No Herrera - we win!!! Simple game.

Sunday 6/19/11

Nice game last night but I did not see it as I was a the Madison Mallards game but of note. . .

Not often you get a lead-off unearned Home Run! Plus - for the 1st time since 2003 that a team has started the game with back to back home runs twice in a year!

I think the Brewers take the series today and shock the non-believers!

Wakefield - big knuckleball flyball pitchers, gives up home runs and has done poorly at home. He has really struggled vs. right handed hitters of which the Brewers have many of. He tossed 119 pitches in his last outing which was about 25 more then any of his previous outings. The key here is wind - knuckleballers love wind to make their ball flutter, unless it's blowing in. I believe the wind will be blowing IN which is good for the brewers.

Losing Crawford hurts the Sox as his replacement is much better vs. LHP hitting .200 vs. RHP vs .212 vs. LHP but his SLG drops . . .well . . . there is no SLG for Camron actually.

Gallardo has given up 2 or less runs in 7 of his last 8 starts and a 1.33 ERA on the road.

I have to run - so in a nutshell.

Brewers +100 and they take the series!

Cheers I'll be on Sportsline live chat for the Brewers game (at work - LOL) Gotta run!!! Say Hi if you log on!!

[HoulihansTX]

Nice call sir

[Grinder12000]

None of this sir crap - makes me feel old! LOL

[odog11]

Sorry I was not hear yesterday to warn you, but bad idea to bet against the Sox on these "occasion" days. Father's Day, Stanley cup in the house, Bruins players throwing out the first pitch, they were extra pumped for this one. Looking for Red Sox to win big again tonight, just need to do a little more research on the Padres vs lefties to make the play or decide to lay off.

[Grinder12000]

Record 38-33 +3.21

WOW - I sort of anticipated Gallardo to do SLIGHTLY better!

Sorry - for being late - I'm a little pissed at myself for tossing money away yesterday - I knew better but the homer in me picked the Brewers - I knew better then that an and disappointed in myself!
---------------
I think I should make this simple - Bet ON the Brewers at home - Fade the Brewers on the road!! Seems to simple.

T.B. Not the more run producing team and take away their DH and insert a pitcher they become even less. On the plus side the Brewers have Narveson a career .250 hitter!
The Crew had a big advantage at home vs. AL teams.

Niemann - forget him for a second - the T.B. bull pen is hurting with over work. They have been very very good but they have pitched a lot of innings in the last 10 days! Plus one for the Crew.

The Brewers are not THAT bad. and on a side point St. Louis was dealt a HUGE blow with Pujols out for 2 months!!

Nutshell just because I don't feel it - Brewers -135 T.B. just does not have the fire power and especially vs. LHP.

[lunchbawks]

Bet the Rays on the road, Fade the Rays at home !!!!

[Grinder12000]

Not even going to think about last nights game - what a sham of an umpire. It was like Walker was behind the plate (Wisconsin people will get that one) He tossed a fan out of Miller Park last year.

Before people get all anal about the pitching staff.

The long and middle relievers suck. But this is typical, this is why they are middle and long relievers - that part of the pen on all teams are the wanna-be starters, not good enough to start, not good enough to be in the back end of the pen. The back end of Brewers pen is fine . . .IF the Brewers can get there! Recently the big problem has been when the Starters go down way early the pen is not giving the offense a chance to catch up.

Of course there is this whole offense problem which seems to be that when the Crew have a chance to put the game away they are always at the bottom of the order. The top of the order is scoring at a 3.50 clip per game which is a good number. They are just not having the opportunity to drive anybody in.

Forget St. Louis, they will fade (as you see they have been) Cinci is the team the Brewers have to watch out for.

I'm going with the Brewers AGAIN today with Greinke on the mound. The Crew are 7-2 in games he has started. T.B. needs walks which Greinke does not do.

Hellickson is a good pitcher, much better at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field then on the road. He is 7-6 in games started. He is pretty wild on the road. Brewers need to be calm and take a few balls!

If the Brewers can make it to the 6th inning the bull pens will battle it out and frankly I like the Brewers pen from the 6th on better then the Rays pen from the 6th on.

But - I'm losing my shirt lately with wagers

Record now is 38-34 +1.86 STILL UP!!!

Brewers -128 Tampa Bay a +118 seems like a good bet but Brewers have an extra bat in the line-up with Greinke - hope Braun plays!

If the Crew lose tonight I'll have to really re-assess things but I feel the last week has been an anomaly.

[BigDan]

Forget stl? You dreaming with that. Cincy/mil/and stl will all be within 5-6 gms of each other come mid-aug. You guys are clearly the team to beat with all of Cards injury problems but everyone in this div is to inconsistent to run away with this thing . Unless Cards dont make a move to solidify their pen, if that is the case it is over for them but id expect them to get something done. Hell if Buccos can hang around .500 they wont be to far from striking distance.


Maybe the Crew's hot month was the anomaly? just taking a little poke at mil here being a Cards fan, lol.

Do agree i think mil is the play tonight, even tho Hell Boy the kind of guy that scares me the 1st time a team sees him. Mil has the Bats to get to him but he can be tricky if you havnt seen him. I gotta wait to make sure Braun is in but if he is think i will join you on the Crew even tho it wouldnt hurt my feelings to see them lose. In reality they are to good at home to not see them getting a game here. BOL

[Grinder12000]

This is a tough game to call today and sometimes (when I say sometimes I mean most of the time) I wish I did not have to bet EVERY game as it is testing my homer-ness.

Record 39-34 +2.86

Dog record 8-13 -2.46

David Price is a LHP who does not give up a lot of homers so the top of the order will have some problems.

On the Brewer side they have Marcum who is an unknown health-wise. If he goes only 3 or 4 Brewers lose. If he pitches carefully Brewers lose.

The Brewer bats are fine but not really crushing the ball and T.B. is tepid at the plate.

The PROBLEM is that there is no line out yet and I have to get going and will be away from the computer.

I git feeling is to go with the Rays if they are dogs of . . hmmmm let's say +130ish. If the Brewers are only -120 I might go with the Brewers.

------------------------

I'll also fade the Cards vs. RHP until they prove they can win. Losing Pujols is not a big deal vs. LHP but vs. RHP I think the line-up has some problems even though John Jay is a good filling (Barkman moves to 1B and Jay plays RF??).

[Grinder12000]

Finally caught up - had a 7AM tee time this morning so it messed the whole wagering thing.

Times like this - here are the highlights.

Baker - Home Runs, on the road - at home, Home runs turn into doubles - on the road they turned into Earned Runs

Wolf - 7 non-poor outings in a row, 4 very good ones. Oddly better at home - AWESOME at night!

Twins offense - good but not a LOT of scoring

Brewers - rested, better offense - really! 10-0 in home games after a Home loss. Games are normally not even close after a home loss!

Brewer pen - back end rested - just get to the 6th

Twins Pen - unknown because their Starters go so long in a game - spotty would be a word

Wager - Brewers -134 and confidant (which means absolutely nothing)

Record 39-34 +2.86 +7.25 when I play the Brewers as a FAV

[HoulihansTX]

Brewers are the only team to not lose consecutive home games this season.

[og4667]

good luck tonight with your brewers, always some good information.

[Grinder12000]

After a totally dreary week in Wisconsin the roof will be open with actual sunshine.

Record 40-34 +3.86

Today I'm going with the Twins at +133. Brewers at -145 is just too much for going against a LHP who is stingy on flyballs and HRs.

Add to the fact that the Twins are 15-5 in the last 20 games and the Crew are 11-9 ( only Pittsburgh is better in the Central, I actually fear Pitts more then St.Louis).

Minnesota has a 2.08 ERA as a team in their last 20 games and you can not take that lightly. They have only given up 8 HRs. The Brewers are 11-17 when they do not hit a HR 31-18 when 1+ HRs.

Plus the Crew is 7-9 vs. LHPs and score a little over 1/2 run less vs. LHP.

Of course if I win today played Minnesota tomorrow I bet the farm on the Brewers.

Go BREWERS but . . .Go Twins. I was a Twins fan when there was no Brewer teams. I remember Halsey Hall and I once had Harmon Killebrew in my car (it was a Sportabout , he barely fit).

[Grinder12000]

Don't have time to explain why and I'm not sure I can justify the wager. Seems WAY to expensive but I'm on the Brewers at -158 - Twins injuries, hot Brewer bats with the roof and panels open.

[alling]

Milwaukee Brewers - runline -1½ (+130)

[Grinder12000]

Keeping it simple.

I'm actually a numbers guy - in the NFL where I have a GREAT record it's all about keeping it simple and for 18 years of posting I have a 65% winning % ATS.

so while I'm pretty much breaking even using my BRAIN I also keep track of not only ME but other stuff.

SO - I'm making a small shift in my wagering.

Tonight I'm taking the Yankees at -130. I love the Brewers but they have done pretty poorly on the road as small dogs going 3 and 5.

One thing to note is that small ballparks do not help Braun and Fielder at all. When people talk about Fielder going to the Cubs and how many HR's he will hit - not that many more actually. If the fence was only 200 feet away his 400 foot blasts will still count as one. If a guy averages 400 feet per homer bring the fences in will not do a dang thing.

What small ballparks do is help the OTHER people, Betencorp, Lucroy and so forth.

So hitting in faux Yankee Stadium is not going to do a thing for the big boys!

Today - Yankees -130

[Grinder12000]

Record 41-35 +3.86

WOW - talk about a team feeling out of place. I sort of felt the 1st game in Yankee Stadium would have an effect on the Brewers but not THAT much. They looked like Little League players! Dropping the ball on the mound for a BALK? Come on man?

If football was not such a large muscle sport I suppose Lambeau Field would have the effect on some teams.

Gotta go with the Yankees again. How long can Marcum go and how many bone head blunders will the Brewers have tonight.

Yankees -138 I'm hoping for a 2-4 road trip. The Brewers go from the easiest park to hit home runs in to the hardest park to put one out, back to back!

And yes - I have abandoned a few of my stat keeping as they were not really helping me. Still - my goal was to stay in the black and learn what works and what does not.

[Grinder12000]

Thursday 6/30/11

Record 42-25 +4.86

I made a small shift in strategy which calls for less words. More of a Bridgejumper (my football system) shift. The stats I had been using are really not helping that much, live and learn, this is why I was doing it. However along the way I have been keeping track of other things so . . . .

Did you know that the team that wins the game normally scores more runs in one inning then the losing team scores the entire game?

Anyway - today I'm playing the Brewers at +175. They have done well on the road as huge dogs going 2-2. Yea - CC Sabethia is on the mound but the Crew are good fast ball hitters - I think they have a chance . . . . maybe . . at least enough so I could not play the the Yankees at -200.

Yanks are pretty much the same LHP vs. LHP so not big deal there. CC is better on the road but come on - the guy is amazing. BUT . . . it's not like the Brewers have never seen the guy before.

Brewers +175

[Grinder12000]

I read an article about Greinke. Seems he is having a career year in everything but ERA. The problem is that he has had horrific luck this year.


His strikeout to walk ration leads all major league pitchers and is ridiculous. His swinging strike% is astronomical. However his ERA which is 5.63 and his FIP* is 2.72. The largest gap in the NL.


* Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible.

His problem is BABIP. When someone DOES get a bat on the ball they get a hit. Normally BABIP has a way of always going back to career averages.

Another problem is that only 55% of base-runners get stranded, league average is 70% and his career average is 71%.

In almost all of his stats he is having an ALL-Star career year and is one of the best pitches in baseball. It just does not seem like it. Earlier in the year I mentioned Axford's problem was that the defense behind him was one of the main problems - same here. Betencorp is not that great at all. McGehee is slumping with his glove, Braun failed geometry and Morgon is not a great CF with zero arm and his zone rating is only average in covering ground.

The Brewers might not make a lot of errors but they also do not get to a lot of balls in the first place.

With all that said - what about today's pick.


Record 42-36 +3.86


I'm going with the Twins today at +106.

Brewers as small road favs a have not done well. Going into a park that gives up zero homeruns against a team that does better in their home park. Gallardo has struggled on the road this year (along with all brewers).


Twins +106

[Grinder12000]

Now that no one actually reads this anymore I can relax! I knew it was only a matter of time LOL

Record 43-36 +492

The Brewers continue to show their ineptitude and it was not more evident then watching the ball go through Princes legs! That seem to be the death blow for the game and confirmed all that is bad in the Brewers.

The key today is getting Narveson through a game without a big inning. remember yesterday I said that typically the winning team in a game will score more runs in one inning then the losing team will score in the whole game (such as last night).

Navro is the king of big innings and I feel the Twins are not normally capable of score in groups of runs at home.

Another thing that was clear last night was fielding. Prince has made more errors this year that last year already (only 4 errors last year) and he had 7 errors the year before. The guy is much better with his glove then 4 years ago.

Fielder is 5th in Zone Rating in the NL which measures how many balls in his zone become outs. HOWEVER - I stand corrected - Betencorp is rated . .SECOND in the NL!!!! (who knew!!)

Zone Rating for Brewers

Fielder 5th out of 12
Weeks 8th out of 9
Betencorp 2nd - Escobar would be below Betencorp
McGehee 5th out of 8
Braun 6th out of 11
Gomez 8 out of 11 which surprises me Morgon would be just below Gomez
Hart 5th out of 12

Lucroy is last in throwing out runners which is sad as the Brewers pitchers historically are very good at holding runners on.


* The Zone Rating system is different because the area of responsibility, or zone, for each fielder is considered a "playable" area and does not account for balls hit into "Bermuda Triangles", "No Mans Land" or other impossible to field balls. A fielder that turns a double play is credited with 2 outs.

I have the Brewers on the road as a small fav -109



186

[mikey360]

Hey Grinder, i'm still enjoying your write ups everyday, keep up the good work.

[Redscot]

Same here Grinder, I read your thread everyday. Good job bro.

[Grinder12000]

Well - THAT game was never in doubt was it. !!!

Working today so this is a quickie.

Brewers as larger fav on the road have done well. The yare 4-2 or 4-3 depending where you want to cut off the lines. -0.05 units if you go 4-3

I like the Brewers today for the above reason and how hopefully last night win blew the dark cloud that was hanging over the crew. I was REAL worried when I saw the line-up full of bench people. How many games is McGehee sitting? Morgon - nice birthday. It's amazing how players with birthdays ALWAYS do great. A documented phenomenon.

He even said on the Jim Roam(sp) show (I hate that guy, Dan Patrick is so much better).

OH OH - better go

Brewers -130

Record 43-36 +4.86

[jhack704]

thank you T PLUSH! that was fn awesome! and stl lost so all the better

[Grinder12000]

I'm wearing my Tony Plush jersey today in honor!!!

[Grinder12000]

WOW - victory was RIPPED from my claws!

Marcum today

Brewers -138 and feeling good. Brewers at -130 or greater at home are . .damn it I forgot hold on 23-6 + 15.43

Brewers -138 Off to a parade :-(

[mikey360]

Marcum Grandslam

We know whos getting player of the game lol

[bigsmitty]

Nice, looks very likely. Like your thread Grinder, very informative-cheers.

[jhack704]

thats what im talking about marcum! thats why we signed u!

[mikey360]

What a let down that game turned out to be.

[Grinder12000]

I agree mikey - wow! what a freaking disappointment!! COME ON MAN!!!!!

Today Brewers are at -170 and while they have a winning record as heavy chalks they are only up 0.88 units going 6-3 as home favs -160 and above.

BUT - how many times have they lose 2 in a row at home this year?? NEVER

OH - BTW - I'm on vacation so this week is sort of a few words week - perhaps it's good as the pen pissed me off yesterday - BUT Arizona is a pretty good hitting team but remember - even though the Brewers scored 6 runs . . . .it was all Marcum!

The key is Braun - is he playing today??

Brewers -170 and we need to score at least 9 runs LOL

Duke - bade pitchers who has problems vs. Brewers is the reason for the -170 Braun, Fielder and Gomez have pretty good luck against him.

I gotta go with the Crew at -170 and pray the pen hols together. On a side point I have been a loe cheerleader all year but it's time to look for another option in the 8th. Sieto (sp?) if healthy is a awesome pitcher, Hawkins?

COME ON MAN!!!!

[Grinder12000]

Before people get all worried about the Crew the teams the Brewers have played the last 20 games have a combined winning%, in THEIR last 20 games) of .582. THAT is one tough schedule to go through day after day after day.

This is just like that horrific road trip when they played 4 very hot teams. After the AS break they will finish July against .420 teams.

Also remember - the goal was to get to the AS break within striking distance which they will. This is a marathon and the Crew are on a steep hill.

Today - AGAIN - I have the crew and Gallardo at -155 and I really need a win.

Record 43-38 +1.86 so losign today will get me striking range of going in the minus for the1st time this year!
-155 is the sweet spot for the crew going 5-0 in the -150 to -159 range and 8-1 -150 to -169 and 19-3 -135 to -169

Brewers -155 and I don't want to see Josh Wilson in LF. I feel this is a come down from having Braun there LOL

[Grinder12000]

WHEW - I was in danger of having the NEED a win.

Today the struggling Brewer offense - less Braun who had an MRI yesterday (which is never a good thing) go against arch nemesis Cinci.

Narveson who has suck vs. the Reds against Bailey.

I'm going with the Reds today at +103. Without Braun the lineup is in shambles and come on - when you have a lineup with Counsil, Josh Wilson, Slumpy McGoo, Gomez, Betencorp and you don't have the one-two punch of Braun/Fielder. You are asking for trouble.

Cinci CRUSHES LHPs so unless Nerveson really is in top notch and the Brewers scores 8 runs. This is Cinci's game to lose.

Fear not though. In the last 23 games the Brewers and taking the opponents last 20 games the average winning pct for opponents is .584. THAT is tough. Playing all very hot teams back to back to back.

After the AS break the crew play an average of .480 teams so they get a little break. And remember - 20+ games ago the goal was to stay in contact with 1st place by the AS break. So far so good.

Cinci +104

Record 44-38 +2.86