scary how lopsided this game is on paper....Miller Park is going to be rocking today while i think its kinda a sad day with Pence long gone
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While I always though Pence was just a baseball clone of Christopher Walken I always felt sorry for HIM being on the Astros! At least the Phillies who were hurting for talent gut him instead of Cinci or St. Louis.Comment -
Originally posted by Grinder12000
no disrespect but wtf would Cards want pence for? you never had to worry about that...Comment -
WBigDan - WFT do the Phillies need Pence for - I was just naming off teams we need to worry about - you know who needs Pence? Astros LOL
My very small every other Sunday Brewer blog
Record 53-48 +2.45
Put a bunch on the Brewer run lane last night at -120 Brewers were -270 which is what I use in the records.
Today Brewers and Narveson are -180
Brett Myers has pitched 3 good games in a row but HAS given up TWENTY SIX home runs in 141 innings!! HOLY CRAP!! Prince has hit 4 HR's in 18 ABs vs. Brett.
Narveson has been pitching pretty well.
Nuff Said
Brewers at home as big Favs do well
Brewers -180 all the wayComment -
With you on this one today Grinder.
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no way we dont sweep this shit team too bring on the fukn cardinals!!Comment -
on em! lets go brew crewComment -
Notice I didn't do the run line today. games are just too low scoring lately - even at -165 or greater 23% of the games are 1 run for the BrewersComment -
WELL - The Brewers are pretty good at beating bottom feeding teams!
Record 55-48 +3.35
Today the Crew play St. Louis and WORST CASE is that the Brewers are swept and we end up 1/2 game out of 1st place. I'm pretty sure that ain't going to happen.
Brewers as low favorites of -101 to -120 are 6-3 +2.78.
Chris Carpenter has been pitching lights out for the last two months with an average game score of 58.9 in his last 10 starts. Rickie Weeks KILLS Carpenter . . .too bad . . . how ever Lopez who has more ABs vs. Carp has a .443 OB and a .542 SLG so that's not to shabby.
Greinke in his last 5 starts has a Game Score of 61.8 so it will be a pretty good game tonight. He has given up only 2 HRs in 96 AB's to card players!
The Cards just played 7 home games against the Astros and the Cubs and went 4-3 while the Brewers were 6-0.
After tonight's game the Brewers only play St. Louis 11 more times! This year the total runs Card/Brewer games are 6,4,4,8,8,7.
I'm on the Brewers tonight at -120.Comment -
I am with you and fwiw I will be in attendance @ tonight's game as I was the last time these 2 pitchers meet in Milwaukee that was a good game with Brewers winning as I believe tonight will be!Comment -
glad the brew pick was not based on lastnights sunday night game.
solid info there. greinke is the man, corey hart is on lately- hes the x-factor.Comment -
Huge series for the Brewers coming up, after going to Saturday and Sunday's games, I promised my daughters I would take them to the World Series if the Brewers made it.Comment -
Originally posted by Grinder12000
fair enough i suppose. but Phils have really needed a solid right handed hitting outfielder sense the departure of Worth-less. certainly a case of the rich getting richer but this was a actual need for them, while stl wouldnt really have anywhere to put him, im not taking Holliday or Berkman out of the lineup for him.
big series coming up between us bro!!!! of coarse unlike your Crew, Cards continue to squander what should be "easy" home wins, you guys sweep cubs/stros while we go .500
sounds a lot like last year, this team just doesnt always show up against the bad teams, as proof last season by their winning record against teams above .500 and losing to the bottom feeders.
that said at least Mil is good so i expect the best Cards effort, gun to my head id prob lean your way tonight but Cards have a way of showing up for a series this big....think the best play is un 7.5 with the current holes in mil lineup Carp should be able to navigate his way around Fielder and handle the majority of lineup. Grienke a stud and cards looked bad at the plate against a guy they normally hit well last night. both pens are now strengths of these teams so they are really capable of shortening games now... this should be a hell of a series...Go Cards!! but more importantly whoever wins lets keep it at a 4-3 gm max
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Why is Greinke only -120 tonight when he was -135 against Carp the first time around and won?Originally posted by Grinder12000Comment -
Grinder im certainly not hating on the play as this should be a hell of a game. but honestly bro if you know the Cards you can throw out that shit about mil sweeping stros/cubs while we went 4-3 as that has basically been our MO for the last few years, play down to bad teams and raise up for the good.Comment -
grinder, my stats on scoresandodds show Brewers at home favored -100 to -125 are just 5-6 (-2.1 Units). Good luck tonight though...Comment -
og that would make sense. I could 100 as a dog and they are 1-2, and 0-2 at -121 to -125 so that would make 7-7. NEXT year I'm going to have all lines from all games in a database so I can look at EVERY game. (if I get my act together).
BigDan - in the NFL you can always tell the posers from the real teams. Real teams win the games they are suppose to win. While both teams can play great against other good teams the the real good teams will beat or as in the NFL, crush, the bad teams.
Baseball - I don't know, it would seem to make sense.
BTW - I might have mentioned this before but in the NFL I have a system that has been 227-121 for the last like 18 years - not a LOT of picks but real consistent at 65%. My "A" picks I which I have about 6 a year are 56-16. Just sayin. The system really is handicapping Joe Square and not football at all actually.Comment -
nothing the same as nfl brother. the fact stl doesnt smash bad teams as frequently as they should has no relevance on this matchup, ask cincy last year who they owned yet lost the div by losing to the bad teams.Comment -
Big Pirates fan...watch them start to win again with their new lineup!mComment -
Chronic, lets get Grienke a W here tonight. with that and then 1 more win I can cash out for the season up 3 times what I started with!Originally posted by oChRoNiCoComment -
Brew Crew is en fuego $200.00$153.85$353.85Win8/1/11 8:10pm MLB Baseball 910 Milwaukee Brewers -130* vs St Louis Cardinals (C Carpenter - R must Start Z Greinke - R must Start)
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Record 56-48 +4.35
I gotta do it. Today I have to go against the streaking Brewers. Just too many things are adding up and it looks like a time for a market pull back just a tad.
One reason is that I feel paying -130 is a bit outside the box and linemakers are counting on people piling on the Brewer bandwagon. Even Accruscore Projections say Brewers win tonight 65% of the time which is -190. ESPN Streak Cash players are 68.1% on Milwaukee . . .everybody is all over the Brewers. This is like buying tech stocks in 2000. I'm not a big bandwagon fan when it comes to wagering.
I can't get over the fact that The Brewers are not excellent vs. LHPs and Jaime Garcia is a pretty darn good pitcher and in 5 of his 6 games vs. the Brewers has given up 0,0,0,2,1 earned runs (7 runs in his one anomaly game). So taking away the anomaly game his Brewer ERA is 0.79.
Do I really want to pay -130 going against a guy with a 0.79 ERA? The Brewer bats were pretty silent last night except for 6 straight hits!
The Cards are a very good hitting team and Marcum has been a real surprise as one of the most consistent pitchers on a REALLY good pitching team.
So my feeling is that this game will come down to who gets the clutch hit. And again, paying -130 for a clutch hit just seems wrong. Paying +120 on a game I feel is 50/50 seems like the right choice.
Cards +120Comment -
Thx again grinder for the write up! I think u have a great point here... I dont wnna bet for the brew crew tonite and damn sure dont wanna bet against them so ill be chicken and bet the under... GL!!!Comment -
mann - I wish I could hold off betting today - but I promised I would bet EVERY game this year - only missed one with a pitcher change so far.Comment -
agree 100%Originally posted by Grinder12000Comment -
Originally posted by Grinder12000
Dude, Gotta keep on the hot team..dont take the Cards just because the Brewers are due for a loss...They own at home and are getting all the breaks...Cards have shown nothing lately to jump on them...You over thought this whole game...PLAY THE BETTER TEAM...
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late $ is not always right but redbirds are only +102Comment -
WOW - what a freaking amazing game last night - talk about two teams going at each other. I wonder if Molina will be playing today or is this one of those wait a month and THEN suspend the hot head. You gotta think that spitting on a ump will not help you in your argument.
Anyway - tooting my own horn I called that game right on the head didn't I (remember I also smack myself when I lose so . . . .)
Record 57-48 +5.55
Today the Brewers are UNDERDOGS at -102 and I'm all over that one.
Couple things - IF Molina does not play or even if he does there might be some calls that will find there way against him. If the other catcher plays it's just a good thing anyway.
Jackson is a freaking good pitcher who has been hot so that is a major concern and the reason the Brewers are dogs. But Wolf is not too shabby either.
The Cards are slightly worse against LHPs but not THAT much. But Molina is very good vs, LHP so if he is not in the line-up it's a big deal.
I don't have a lot to say about this game - one thing I just noticed is that the Cards are not very good hitters in day games. Their RC/27 is a tiny 3.85 in 35 games while the Brewers are about even Day vs. Night. The Cards are way way worse during the day games. In fact the cards slugging at night is .441 and in daylight .381. weird.
Jackson's ERA is about 1/2 run worse in daylight in the last 3 years while Wolf is 0.20 better in daylight.
Wolf has a 3.15 ERA vs. St.Louis in the past three.
Brewers -102 and liking the game.
CheersComment -
awesome job your doing here that was a great call love the write ups info very helpful on making decisionsComment -
I agree, good job! keep it up!Comment -
go crew!!!Comment -
I'm going to have a tough time the next few days as I'm covering a Antique and Wooden Boat Show which will mean being on the road by 5:00 in the morning tomorrow and taking off today by 7:30.
SO - Brewers are -210 favs ON THE ROAD.
I GUESS I'll take the Brewers even though I'm not real excited about paying that much. The run line is -130 which seems a little better. Still - on the road is scary.
record 58-48 +6.55
Sorry for no big write up but . . at least it's the Astros, not a lot to say the next few days as I'm sure we will be huge favorites all weekend.
Brewers -210 for this but maybe a run line -130 in reality. . on the road anything can happen.Comment -
Happ is crap... Thats all i need to see... GL!!!Comment -
grinder... any thoughts on score/no score 1st?Comment -
It's 4:22 in the morning and I'm about to get on the road for a sunrise shoots - I'm on THE STROS today. Brewers are -145 and they do not do well in -145 even though I feel this should be easy something does not seem right (like bing up a 4:00 in the morning).
Linemakers know what they are doing.
Astros seem like cookies and I'll lose today so don't go on my words (of which there are none). Myers has been pitching well, don't look at his ERA which is not indicative of his pitching (like Greinke). Home team is like 17-9 in this series lately. Narvo is not a good road pitchers.
ASTROS +133
If case you are wondering what I've been doing all day - here is one shot. Its really been a rough so far. :-)
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