Hey Grinder, nice result last night, Brewers seemed like they were gonna go out with a whimper but gave us that one good inning at bat.
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ya! I hit that under with the money line yesterday. was a nice late winner. Good luck with the crew. Like them best in the central.Comment -
WOW - almost forgot today - it was getaway day for a house full of Dallas relatives that were staying a week.
I went with Brewers -133 today
Brewer as home Favs of -130 to -170 are 21-5 HOWEVER - Gallardo is 2-8 vs. the Reds but I think he is better then the other pitchers. .200 against the Reds is better then the team average.
This would concern me but overall the Brewers are just doing better then the reds lately. HOWEVER - there is the Braun factor.
axford last night became only the the 4th pitcher in Brewer history to record 20 consecutive save with out a BS or loss.
Anyway - at -133 it's just enough for me to take the Brewers at home.
With my loss I'm back to sitting on the edge hoping for a win.
record 44-30 +1.86 Let's get me to the AS break in the black. I feel bad I'm not winning MORE but then I read that 85% of Sports gamblers lose in the long run. So . . .I'm better then 85% at the moment LOLComment -
GrienkeComment -
Nice 9th inning rally from the Crew, close one but we cashed it.Comment -
Yea - I bet Greinke and somehow I brain went in the Gallardo direction! Brain fart! BUT A VICTORY! WHEW - never in doubt! :-)Comment -
WOW - exciting. One of the funniest lines I have seen in game comments was Brewers go against
I certainly wasn't betting on a McGehee infield single
He was inspired by the sausage race
Brewers go against Johnny Cueto today who is ultra hot. I'm going with the Crew at -104 mainly because I don't want to pay =-106 for the struggling Reds.
The Brewers have done OK vs. Cueto in the past 3 years hitting 7 HRs in 46 innings and 4 HRs in 14 innings at Miller Park. Where the hell is Overstock.com Park anyway! Good God what a horrible name.
One thing to look for is that Cueto is very poor with RISP with a .863 OPS.
The Brewers have lost 6 of Marcums last 7 games but has not pitched THAT badly. He has been a little under average for sure in his last 4 games.
Cinci has not had a kind July so far and I'm always concerned with Braun out but Kotsey is hitting .400 this month replacing Braun and has a triple and 2 HR's so SO FAR there has not been a offensively. Defensively is another story and I thought I would never appreciate Brauns defense but I do now.
ANYWAY - Brewers -104 today
Record 45-39 +2.86 and a little breather room.Comment -
Sunday 7/10/11 Brewers at -140. This is the Crews wheelhouse for winning. -130 to -160 they are 18-3 and +13.84 units.
PLUS - the Brewers are going against Dontrelle Willis and his 6.85 ERA. I think the Crew are getting a deal on this one> I will guarentee he will not see the 7th inning and PROBABLY will not even see the 6th inning. he walks a shit load of batters, can not hold runners on base, throws a fair amount of DP balls along with Wild Pitches, an OK glove, a Lefty killer.
I expect an Active game on the base paths!
Record 45-40 +1.82
I'm putting a little extra on this gameComment -
Second half here we come ladies and germs!
Back into action with a new Set-up man. K Rod comes to Milwaukee with baggage and an attitude and it's the only thing I can see wrong. If K Rod can just forget the 17 million that the Brewers will steal away from him we have the bast 1-2 punch in the Majors for shutting the door. This also makes it so we will have a closer every day of the year if needed. No longer have to worry about over pitching in close games.
With that said the Brewers play in a HR park not unlike Milwaukee for lefties but very forgiving for right handed hitters and the best park in the majors for getting on base.
Common sense says play the Brewers today because they are +128 which is a pretty heavy dog for the Brewers but frankly they are 3-10 as dogs in the +130 range and I'm not going to let my optimism sway me. This is a time I just gotta put my homer-tude in my back pocket and realize that the Brewers have sucked on the road.
I hope they stop sucking but they have to prove it to me.
Gallardo is 0-3 in Colorado and 0-5 overall and all five were as chalks. Jimenez is 2-0 vs. Milwaukee at home and 4-1 overall.
So I gotta go with Colorado as home fav and a hefty -133.
GO BREWERS.
Record 46-40 +2.82Comment -
This road trip will be a big test for the Brewers. If they can come out of the 11 game trip at 6-5 they should be ecstatic.Comment -
I think this Brew Crew team could win it allComment -
Good luck on the second half of the season Grinder, will be interesting to see if the Brewers can maintain a good pace.Comment -
Looking like the favorites in the NL Central in the second half. I'm a Reds Fan, but they can't seem to put it together this year. I just don't want to see the Cardinals win the NL Central. thumbsdow
GL Brewers fans, team looks good heading into the second half with the Rodriguez trade and the Brewers are a team I can get behind if the Reds don't get on a roll.Comment -
Awesome! great start - what is worse - giving up 12 runs? Scoring 3 runs in Colorado? or 2 errors!! Game one of the 11 games in 11 days all on the road starts with a big juicy stinky crap.
Today Narveson vs. relatively unknown Nicasio. Well I have always noticed that relatively unknown's do well vs. the Brewers. I have no real data on this but I really perk up every time the Crew play against a rookie they always seem to flop. When was the last time they lit up a rookie!
What if K Rod never has an opportunity to pitch!
I gotta put my money on Colorado today at a modest -124. The Brewers are +114. The Brewers are 2-6 on the road as small dogs in the +119 to +100 range and last night did not install a lot of confidence in our road warriors.
Braun has a few streaks going with 23 straight games with a hit AND 24 straight games with a hit against the Rockies.
LOL - listening to Dan Patrick he is wondering who had better hair at the ESPY's, Clay Matthew Jr or Aaron Andrews! Is it Clay Matthew Jr? or Clay Matthew III. Isn't Clay Matthew Jr actually "our" Clay Matthew's dad? I'm so confused!
Anyway - Rockies AGAIN. I PRAY the Brewers win. I would be 1-1 and losing a little but I would feel better about the Crew. This is a really tough road trip! If the Crew can go 4-7 in this trip I'll be happy!
Rockies -124
BTW - grind4moneyz - I would take the Reds over the Cards any day. Heck - I would love to see the Pirates take it if the Brewers don't.Comment -
It's like 5:30 and I gotta run - taking the Rockies at -117 and Praying the Brewers win.Comment -
As always Grinder, miss the writeup today, but can't fault ya for having a life bro.
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got the brewers +1.5. praying they dont get swept. they look awful right now. cmon greinke be the stopper u were picked up to be. game' not till 8est.Comment -
Two good things one bad thing happened last night. besides the score.
GOOD
1. I HAVE to think that Loe pitched himself into a mop up roll for a while OR a "one batter need a DP" roll. (is it roll or role - I've been up for 5 minutes and have to go to "work" in a craft brew store today so time is short).
2. FINALLY Weeks is out of the lead off role and into the driving in runs roll.
BAD
Braun twisted his fallopian tubes or whatever swinging a bat and we will need Kotsey to hit .400 again I BET for the next 2 weeks.
OK today's bet is a tough one when I look at the pitchers. Marcum is looking good and Cook looks very bad. so you would think the Brewers would be the easy pick because . . . they have momentum now?
If you look at last nights game the reason the Brewers won was not really because their offense shined but because the solid Rockie defense went belly up for a couple innings.
Cook, while looking very very bad is a HUGE HUGE ground ball pitcher and has a winning record in Brewer games at 6-5 with a 2.88 ERA. The Crew will be without Braun who is a Cook killer (1.226 OPS vs, Cook). Kotsey is not BAD against Cook at .729.
Marcum's last 5 games have been less the league average in Starts and the Brewers have lost 7 of his last 8 starts with a 6.48 ERA but he is 1-0 vs. Colo.
Back to Cook though. Cook gives up runs because people get on base and score. Does not really give up a lot of HRs because of his extreme sinker ball. He is the the Rockies Loe. People get on base and people score. He is AMAZING with RISP and two outs but with less then two outs there can be a hitting parade. The question is - can the Brewers take advantage of this? Their bats are more geared towards the big inning with HR's not stringing 3 or 4 hits together in an inning ON THE ROAD.
The Brewers as road favs in the -115 area are 0-5. They are better as smaller road favs or even larger road favs but the average score as a road chalk in the teens is 1.4 to 4.4. Not a trend I want when you are putting extra cash out on a favorite.
SO - Rockies at +104.
Record 48-41 +3.65
Cheers! GO CREW!!Comment -
On to Arizona and I made a bet that just "feels" right. If I lose it's back to trying to take my brain out of the mix.
I picked the Brewers at +115 today. Yea - they suck as dogs in the +100teens but Josh Collmenter just does not instill a lot of confidence in paying such a large price for a favorite.
Yea - his last game pitched he shut out Milwaukee and yada yada but it was the 1st time the Brewers have seen him which always seems to be a problem for the Crew.
Wolf on the other hand does very very well against Arizona, 5-1 in the last 3 years and 13-6 in games he as started.
Then there is Fielder who hits .328 with 10 homers and 22 RBIs in 39 games against the Diamondbacks while the Brewers have won 6 straight in Arizona and have out scored the 'backs 46-14.
Hopefully Braun will play as he is 9 for 26 with three doubles, two homers, eight RBIs and 10 runs in his last six games at Chase Field and even Wold has won his last 6 starts in Arizona!
I THINK the Brewers have something going - new lineup and new back end of the bullpen.
I'll be up late tonight.
Brewers +115
record 48-42 +2.65 and treading water!Comment -
I seriously feel like I'm chasing my tail on this one. My God given gift of going with a "feel" FAILEd last night and as I said if it didn;twork I would go back to numbers.
So now the Brewers are -115 favorites on the road and they are pretty poor as road favs. HOWEVER -115 is the bottom of being break even as -115 up to -145 they are 8-6 +0.26 So they are at the very beginning of breaking even. hmmmmmm
OR - are they at the very top of ineptitude the -100teens where they are 1-5 -4.60
Berry Enright has been freakishly sucky this year giving up homeruns like there is no tomorrow but in his one outing against the Brewers he shut them down.
So I look at the game and say - HOW CAN THE BREWERS LOSE!!!! Wait - they are on the road!
Then there is Gallardo - MAN - this guy has either REALLY REALLY sucked or done REALLY REALLY well. His last game, 4 innings 11 hits and 6 runs WAS NOT HIS WORST OF THE YEAR!!! He's had three other games where he was as sucky! And when he has a sucky game he does not automatically have a great game next! It's a total crap shoot.
Braun? Did he make a deal where if he starts more then 55 games we have to pay him more? Will he start? Who knows! Maybe they will put Counsil in left Field as an experiment to get Josh Wilson more at bats!
The order without Braun is like a house of cards.
Backs +105! Go Brewers :-(
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Road trips are killing me. Remember yesterday I could not tell if -115 was the beginning of a good range for the Brewers or the end of a very bad range for the Brewers on the road.
I guess it was the beginning of the good range.
Well today it's a little easier. The Brewers are at +100 which is a good area and looking at the match up I like it.
Saunders gives up a TON of homeruns at home in the past three years. 46 HR's in 311 innings pitched (although 1 year was with the Angles which is not a HR park?). He is also much worse vs. RHH with an OPS of .789 in 1700 ABs. He has only pitched against Milwaukee once and got shelled!
Narvo is 2-1 vs. the 'D-backs and has pitched 4 decent games in a row winning 3 of the 4.
So far this road trip has been OK for the crew - I'll take a .500 trip any day.
FOR ME it's been an ugly trip and this is a big big game as my record is 48-44 +0.65 - I WANT TO STAY ABOVE .500!!!!
The Brewers are 12-16 in Arizona and averaging 6.6 runs a game - I think they keep it going.
So I'm all over the Brewers today +100
GoodComment -
What a game last night - stayed up for the whole thing so I'm working in like 4 hours sleep now!
Drew and Gomez are out of for the season and it hurts the Brewers. Gomez had a .821 OPS vs. LHP and his defense saved or won at LEAST 4 games for the Brewers. He will be missed! Roenicke completely out coached Gibson last night but COME ON - leave Narveson in. Seriously, he had like 85 pitches and had shut down 10 batters in a row!!!
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The Brewers have a winning record on a tough road trip??? NO WAY! 4-3? GET OUT!!!
Greinke vs. Kennedy tonight. Kennedy's good, what can you say - he goes deep into games which is what the Dbacks need. The thing about Kennedy is that he will pitch a game with a lot of Fly balls and then the next game he is a GB pitcher.
Greinke has pitched 3 very good games and 4 of his last 5. In fact his whole year has been a good year. There is a reason he is 7-3. Don't look at his ERA which is full of bad luck and bad fielding. He has either been striking out batters or delivering ground balls which find there way through the porous Brewer infield.
I like the Brewers order - makes perfect sense and it looks like the hitters are enjoying it.
I'm taking the Brewers at +100 again. They are doing good things and +100 is a good on the road range.Comment -
That was some game last night, looks like a goner but came through, I was watching the scores on cbssports and 10th inning they showed Arizona's pitcher as unknown, so not sure who it was but Brewers got to him.Comment -
Looking at the past six Game Scores of the pitches the Brewers have been facing it's pretty telling on how they did on this road trip
Working oldest to today
Avg Game Score / Decision
61 / L
52 / L
46 / W
37 / W
51 / L
36 / W
Rookie / W
54 / L
Today 66 / ?
Game Score is just a easy way to see just how effective a pitcher was in one number. Number if innings pitched, BB/K Hits Runs Earned Runs are taken into account. The average pitcher is 50.
Here are the Brewers average Game Score in their last set of games
Gallardo - 53
Greinke - 62
Marcum - 47
Narveson - 58
Wolf - 52
So today we have 47 vs. 66 and the Brewers are +120 on the road.
That +120 area has been a real shit hole for the Brewers on the road going 3 and 12 and -8.41 units when betting on them.
SO - I'm all over the Giants at -130 today.
Matt Cain has been pitching lights out baseball with 5 of his last 6 game scores over 65. The Brewers have lost 8 of the last 10 games Marcum has started and he has been keeping the outfielders busy with flyballs with their only rest on home runs of which there is always AT LEAST one.
HOWEVER - Cain has not fair well vs. the Brewers going 2-4 with lots of K's but lots of BBs also. Marcum is 0-2 vs. the Giants.
AT&T Park is a pretty fair park when it comes to hits and HR's ro RHH but Lefties have a hard time poking them out. It does give up a good amount of doubles and a LOT of triples - how about putting a bet that Morgon has at least one triple this weekend.
Back to Cain. He can not hold runners on so expect the Brewers to be running if they can get on. He does NOT give up a lot of double plays so Braun and Hart should be happy and expect the catcher to be jumping around as Cain does get pretty wild at times. When he misses he REALLY misses.
BUT - I gotta go with the Giants tonight and I better take a nap as I'm losing a lot of sleep hours and NOW we are in the real west coast games that start VERY late.
Record 49-45 +0.65 and trying to keep my head above the water.
The next to game score games are
Brewers / Giants average Game Score
52 vs. 56
53 vs. 62Comment -
THAT was a game the Brewers were not suppose to win.
This is a horrible game to have to make a bet on. The Brewers have beaten the Giants in San Francisco 7 of their last 10 games. Wolf pitches great in AT&T park, Vogelsong is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts versus Milwaukee, Braun will be back, Wolf is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in his last two starts in San Francisco but also Wolf has been shut out FIVE times this year.
The Brewers at +119 are horrendous but won at +120 last night and the Crew seem to have gotten better on the road.
If I pick the Brewers I feel like a homer and if they lose I will kick myself as they have been shut up THREE times on this road trip. If I pick the Giants and lose I feel like an idiot because everything looks slanted toward the Brewers. If I had a choice I would skip this game.
Vogelsong at home as a 1.08 ERA. Get this - teams bat .114 with RISP against him. His FIP is 3.61 which tells me he is pitching a little over his head and should come back down to earth. FIP sort of is a luck factor indicator.
Record goes to the dark side for the very first time in the season 49-46 -0.65
sigh - I gotta play the Giants! DAMN IT!!Comment -
HEY - even if the Brewers lose today I call the road trip a success at 5-6 - better then 2-9 which is what I was expecting.
I'm playing the Brewers today at +100 on the road. They seem to do well as tiny dogs or tiny favorites on the road and are 7-5 +1.93.
Madison Bumgarner does not give up homeruns at all - HOWEVER - when pitching in San Fran he gets hit pretty hard as opposing batters hit .313 against him.
Bumgarner is the Randy Wolf of the Giants when it comes to run support. Only once in 19 starts at AT&T field have the Giants giving him more then 3 runs. Lefties have problems against Bumgarner but Prince is not hitting ANYWAY so don't expect a lot out of him today.
Gallardo is 5-2 and 2-1 in San Fran.
One thing of note is that the Brewers have the 3rd least strike-out in the last 20 games while the Giant pitchers have the most Ks in the last 20 games!
I don't have much to say on this game - I like the Brewer chances in a low scoring game today (which now will be a 9-8 game).
Record 50-46 +0.35Comment -
no way milw loses today, shoulda gone all in. yo is on his game today, we will have a winning road trip!
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wtf!Comment -
So the crew is back home again and I am all over the Brewers tonight at -136. MY road trip went 4-7 so I'm glad to be home again.
This is in their wheel house as the Brewers at home as larger favorites are crushing the line.
One problem - Dempster is a Brewer killer. Against the current Brewers with a total of 243 ABs he has a .219 AVG and a .366 Slugging against and in his last 20 games vs. the Crew he is 14-6 HOWEVER only 5-6 in Milwaukee. Remember - he shut the Brewers out in 7 innings, 4 hits 1 walk and 7 Ks on June 13 . . . in Chicago.
He is the Greinke of the Cubs. Not a bad pitcher but has a 5.00 ERA . He has a 3.99 ERA at home and a 6.70 ERA on the road.
He will go against Narveson who has won 7 of 9 in games he has started and has had Game Scores above league average in his last 5 outings. He has never lost to the Cubs and in the last 3 years has 22 Ks in 19 innings.
The Cubs are about equal LHP vs, RHP so being a lefty is no big deal.
The Brewers in the -130 to -170 range are 23-4 +16.23 units.
The Cubs are 8-12 in their last 20 while the Brewers are 10-10. Cubs have scored the 3rd least runs in the last 20 while the Brewers are about the middle of the pack. Cubs OB is .294, Brewers .310. Fielding the teams are tied for 11 place in the league - STELLER!
Here is something - the Cubs in the last 20 games have given up 7 unearned runs - Brewers? 14
A few fun Brewer numbers in the last 20 games
Betancourt is hitting .294 with a .453 slugging .324 OB
Week has a .241 Avg with a .494 SLG .341 OB
Pitchers .261 AVG .441 SLG and a .324 OB
Cubs Pitchers .114 across the board.
Fielder has a .343 SLG
Kotsey least the team in RBIs with 11 with a .304 average and a .478 SLG
Brewers -136
Record 50-47 -0.65Comment -
THAT is why we like Kameron Loe - the guy is a ground ball specialist. When Roenicke put Loe in in the 6th inning with the bases loaded and no out I was perhaps the only person in America who had confidence. It seems to me that if the Brewer bats can come through and the Crew have a lead, the game is now a 6 inning game. . . . at least at home LOL
Record 51-47 +0.35 BACK IN THE BLACK!!
Carlos Zambrano goes against Greinke tonight and the Brewers are a mammoth -163. This is nose bleed territory but -150 to -170 the Brewers are 13-1. It gets REAL scary -170 and above so let's keep these lines below -170.
Zambrano has pitched poorly in 5 of his last 7 outings and deserves his 4.70 ERA. He has sucked vs. the Brewers this year. What the Crew needs to do is get to him early as he struggles out of the gate, calms down and by the 3rd time through the line-up team have figured him out!
Fielder is a Zambrano killer with a .532 OB and a 1.191 OPS. As a whole the Brewers are about a .500 club vs. Zam but Brewers have not beaten Zambrano in 5 years in Miller Park . . . it's meaningless! However Zam is 7-0 with a 2.40 ERA his last eight starts at Miller Park. MEANINGLESS - I hope.
On the other side of the coin is Greinke does NOT deserve his 4.84 ERA. He has pitched well in 5 of his last 6 games and has a 2.88 ERA in July which is more of what he should be doing. Zacks big problem this year is the home run ball but as long as no one is on base it only hurts a little. Come on, the guy has only walked 18 batters!! WOW!!
The current Cubs only have a .337 slugging against him in 83 ABs.
One thing I noticed is when Zack loses he loses BIG. In the 5 games the Brewers have lost when he pitches the opposing team has scored, 8, 12, 12, 9, 4. The Brewers are 10-4 in games he has started.
AccuScore simulation projections have the Brewers winning 67% of the time with a 21% chance Braun hits a HR, 20.2% Hart hits one and 19.2% Prince his one - interesting
In case you are wondering 67% would be -200ish so -163 is a deal.
And did you see the final play of the Pirate game? The ump totally blew the call at home plate - Pirates lose.
Brewers -163Comment -
At least we have Counsil to fill in for Weeks, no loss THERE!!!
Today's game looks REAL obvious. Brewers should kick some ass right? I mean come on, Randy Wells.
Here are a few things swaying me off the Brewers today.
1. Wells DID beat the Brewers earlier this year.
2 The Brewers, when huge favorites at home do not do well, at -170 or greater the Crew is 3-3 -2.21 units. When they win the average score is 10.3 to 5. When they lose the average score is 1.6 to 4.3.
3. -185 is a LOT to pay when team has just lost their most important batter. It's not Prince, it's not Braun. The #1 offensive guy on the team was Weeks. The game after he goes down there will be a transition. Luckily it'll be against the Cubs but . . . .
AccuScore projections say Brewers win 71% of the time after 10,000 simulations which is about a -240. But it does not take into account the psychological loss. Plus what lineup? Lucroy probably will be on the bench with non-hitting Kottaras catching. And how is Braun, will he start a day game after a night game or is it a "give the quad a rest day" because this one is in the bag already.
I gotta go with the huge Dog today because I don't want to get to far away from breaking even. CUBS +165
record 52-47 +1.35Comment -
Originally posted by Grinder12000
God I hope you are wrong...I just hope the cubs throw in the towel, braun hits better today then yesterday, marcuum pitches like he can, and the bullpen keeps throwing wellComment -
I think the crew sweep the cubs today looking for Prince & Braun to step it up without Weeks in the lineup and also think Marcum will continue what has been very good starting pitching this series prediction cubs 2 brewers 5Comment -
Did I not post yesterday? I wrote it!!!! Really I did! Check out http://grinderswarehouse.blogspot.co...-bring-it.html it's a cut and past blog thing.
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Record 53-48 +1.35
OK - Brewers are -270 for today's game - the question is is that too much to ask? it's not like the crew is KILLING the ball but the worst team in the majors lose their best player.
The Astros are 4-20 when J.A. Happ starts a game and the guy is really having problems. Happ's last 6 starts he has an average game score of 32! That is BAD. Happ has given up 16 HRs in 110 innings BUT - is a lefty.
If you take away the one bad game for Gallardo his average game score is 62 - WITH the bad start it's still 54.
Hell - I'm not even going to talk about the game it is SO lopsided but -270?? The Brewers are averaging 2.5 runs a game in their last 8 games while the other team is averaging 2 runs a game.
The TOTAL is 8.5
The Run line for the game is -120 which is looking sort of good at the moment as I don't see this being close. Either the Brewers win 15-0 or they lose outright 2-3.
I tell ya what I'm doing - I'm playing the run line at -120 - my stats will reflect that I'm wagering Brewers -270 but in reality it's -120 1.5 runs. I want to keep everything within the norm.Comment -
no way milw loses todayComment
