I agree with this pick. I like the Brewers today, but I might take them on the run line too.
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My job today is to become in tune with San Francisco, a brand new team. Fridays game looks AWESOME!!!
What we want to do is cheer for the Marlins - Extra innings would be GREAT - the Giant pen is getting a lot of work lately and could be getting tired. 158 pitches so far against FLA in the last 2 games!
GO FLORIDA!!
I think there is an opening against Lincecum - more on that tomorrow! It'll be interesting to see what the line is. I'm not sold on picking the Brewers yet.
Record 29-20 +8.02Comment -
Fading the Giants tonight Buster Posey is going on the DL - broken foot - hewas the #1 offensive threat (would be 4th on the Brewers) and clean-up - this puts the whole order in disarray.
Putting a side unit on the Marlins at -107
this is great news for the Brewers - it's not like when a QB goes down and everyone rallies and plays better!Comment -
Friday 5/27/11 The 5 star double gold game of the decade.
Record 29-20 +8.02
I wonder what the records are of teams that were just swept on the road. Just thinking out loud.
Let's talk Brewers for a second. In the last 20 games here are the Brewers rankings in the NL
Batting Average 4th - (Cubs are 40 points higher then the 2nd place team)
Runs 2nd
HR's 2nd
Doubles 2nd
Stolen bases 2nd
Errors 5th
On base Pct 4th
Slugging pct 1st
Base on balls 4th
Overall record in the Majors, tied with Boston 14-6
So we all know the Brewers are hitting - pitching is mediocre
San Francisco is pretty middle of the road to bottom in batting, last in HRs with 8, 2nd to last in runs scores WITH Posey.
Pitching? 1st
tonight game is the game of the year so far. This is an outstanding match-up We all know that Lincecum is not actually human correct? The guy is OUTSTANDING!!! But there is one wrinkle here. He threw 133 pitches last time out. He as only thrown 130+ two other times in his life and the next games were one bad one good but both were much later in the season.
130 pitches is a LOT.
he is an ultra GB pitcher that will have his way with the Brewers for sure. His average GAME SCORE is 64. I have zero doubt he will handcuff the Brewers (maybe a little doubt).
However - the main Brewers do hit him at a .294 clip and in the past 3 years the Brewers do have a 4.71 ERA vs. Lincecum so . . . . there is hope.
The Brewers are not without a weapon themselves in Shawn Marcum. Marcum has an average GAME SCORE of 62. So if each pitcher stays true to form it's all up to who has the better offense.
The Giants are REALLY hurting. You can not underestimate what losing Posey does to the Giant lineup. It's devastating. Losing the #4 hitter is always underestimated because it's not just the biggest hitter gone it's also shuffling the lineup and getting guys in spots they are not used to.
It's like a car that all of a sudden is missing a cylinder. A lineup all works together and all of a sudden you are missing the most important part? Plus the Giants were not hitting on all cylinders anyway. He was the KEY!!
His RC/27 was the the best on the team for everyday players (he would have been 4th on the Brewers).
Another point lost to many was that he was the catcher. The field general.
The Brewers are lucky in that we get the Giants at this moment in time. It's like when an ambulance passes you on a busy street - total chaos, the wave of cars come crashing together again with confusion.
Taking the UNDER of 6.5 seems obvious but I believe the Brewers will score some runs - not sure about the Giants
I took the Brew Crew at -110 and maybe a little side money on the Run Line at +185.Comment -
Biggest game of the year so far by the Brewers? Brewers actually creeping up into the top half of the standings. Morgan I believe is back from Arizona. Brewers have a lefty reliever waiting in the wings in the physically imposing Hererra.
U6.5 seems like such an unsharp bet, but I'm taking it anyway. Scratch that, more than likely I'll be taking the 5 inning line under depending on the number.Comment -
OOOO 5 inning under - that is a good idea! Morgon (aka Tony Plush on twitter) - I love that guy - Gomez is killing LHP - I had not noticed that! Hererra?? what?? I'm so tied up with the NOW I'm missing the minor leagues! I noticed this morning 2.5 games back - SWEET - I had not been looking at the standings real close lately - I did not want to get my hopes up!Comment -
Im all over thisone just started a thread and after reading this it makes me more sure of a Brewers win going big on this one will also put a unit on the Braves RL,The reds picthing has been catastrophic and with Leake back on the Mound as a starter the braves should be able to get a few even without Prado and Heyward out on DL,the reds bullpen got to work REALLY hard in phillies aswell so hopefully they get to him early or have long AB then this should/would hit aswellComment -
What do you think of Marcums home Era vs away era? Only bad luck or does he has worser comand of his pitches at home?Maybe he gets a little more tense and nervous?Comment -
Dig - I think it is just small sample size - in one game it was just that one bad inning! He's only had 4 home games.Comment -
brewers win big toniteComment -
FAIL - a rookie in his 1st game beats "us". I would make the same pick over again - we had that one called correctly - fate handed us a cruel present. The Giants had hit 8 HR's in the last 20 games sigh!Comment -
Saturday 5/28/11
I'm trying VERY VERY hard not to be a homer.
WOW - I think we nailed that one on the head and lost because some dude I never heard of slammed us! Very disappointing and winning seems so much more enjoyable. I hate Brandon Crawford.
Record 29-21 +6.92
Two lefties go at it today and LHP vs. LHP the Brewers have a slight edge. RC/27 (Runs Created per 27 outs) 4.08 vs. 3.72. Pitching is Sanchez vs Wolf where Sanchez has a slight edge. However Wolf is 3-1 with a 1.00 ERA in five starts against the Giants since 2009.
On the other side the Giants have a 6 game winning streak in Miller Park but Sanchez is 1-4 vs. Milwaukee.
The Giants did not really impress me a lot last night offensively but got the job done. . . . . . .you know I'm having a lot of problems with this game, man the line seems a tad high for the Brewers at -140 as I just do not trust Wolf at the moment but I look at the stats and realize that his penchant for flyballs and home runs should not be a problem against a team that NORMALLY can not hit a homerun.
But then Sanchez has been pitching so well and I'm struggling here trying not to be a homer and seeing so many conflicting trends.
The crews home stand has been all against poor teams so I have to take their hot bats and cool them off a little.
Frankly the words are just not coming out today and I don't like the line of -140 for the Brewers. The magic might have left Miller Park temporarily but I'm still picking the Crew at a lofty -140 - WITH MASSIVE RESERVATIONS. Picking the Brewers would be too easy and with Wolf being up and down and the Giants getting a monkey off their back it seems the momentum MIGHT have swung to San Fran. But . . . I'm still on the Brewers.
On a side note the Brewer pen is in great shape and has a 2.11 Run average in the last 10 games while the Giant pen who the talking heads on TV were all giddy over but I'm not seeing it. 3.96 Run Average and a 70% failure rate in the last 10 games compared to a 40% failure rate for the Brewers.
Sanchez only goes 5.7 innings per start so the pen WILL coming into play and I feel this will be a game where who's pen is better. I'll take the Brewers pen.
Brewers -140Comment -
CALLED IT LOL Brag while I can as it will all come crashing down at some point!On a side note the Brewer pen is in great shape and has a 2.11 Run average in the last 10 games while the Giant pen who the talking heads on TV were all giddy over but I'm not seeing it. 3.96 Run Average and a 70% failure rate in the last 10 games compared to a 40% failure rate for the Brewers.
Sanchez only goes 5.7 innings per start so the pen WILL coming into play and I feel this will be a game where who's pen is better. I'll take the Brewers pen.Comment -
Called that one yesterday - said yesterdays game would be decided by the bullpens! BINGO!!
Record 30-21 +7.92
I heard a guy mention that the the Brewers needed warm weather to get their bats going. I always hear crap like that and then investigate and see it's total malarkey! Not this time. Look at the OPS for the last 3 years for the Top of the line-up Brewers
Name April May June July August Sept
Weeks .773 .758 .866 .894 .744 .806
Hart .816 .816 .873 .810 .743 .698
Braun .909 .950 .839 .836 .964 .843
Fielder .795 .909 1.121 .971 .882 .937
Mcgehee .907 .781 .854 .758 .842 .778
AVG .840 .842 .910 .853 .835 .812
June seems to be the best month for the brewer hitters - so my thinking is that if you play the over/under in June you should be playing more OVERS.
Today "we" play the rubber game vs. the Giants, Gallardo and Cain.
Cain is a real good pitcher and once again he is going against Gallardo. These two have matched up before with the scores of 3-2 and 1-5. Cain is 2-3 over all in games started vs. the Giants.
Gallardo is 4-2 vs. the Giants and in 5 of the 6 games the UNDER has won. So we have two very good pitchers. Cain has never given up a Home Run to the current Brewers which is a bad thing but he does give up doubles and hits. Gallardo is very very good against the current Giants who only have a .629 OPS (Brewers have a .772 OPS vs. Cain).
Cain's average Game Score is 56 in his last 5 starts vs. .470 Pct teams.
Gallardo's average Game Score is 62 in his last 5 starts vs. .490 Pct teams.
Cain will pitch 7 innings today giving the Giant bull pen a break which is lucky for San Fran as their bull pen sucks at the moment. They have pitched ineffectively in 88% of their last 11 games (losing the game last night).
In that same amount of time the brewers have a 38% ineffective rating which in the overall scheme of things is fine. Their last 4 games have been very good!
Offensively the Giants are in a world of hurt. Top of the Order is .262 with only 2.25 runs and 1.92 RBI's compared to the Brewers .250 but 3.50 Runs and 3.50 RBI's in the last 4 series.
This being a Sunday game NORMALLY you would see the "B" squad but Lucroy rested yesterday and Morgon should play Center. Not sure about Hart who was sick last night and you might see Council at SS as he hits Cain pretty well.
So the download is that you have two very good pitchers with the big difference being the Brewer bats. One Home Run and the Brewers win this one.
Should be low scoring.
The picks get tougher tomorrow as the Brewers play the reeling Reds who are on a road trip from hell. Their bullpen is almost totally different group of guys from the last time we played them and are totally exhausted. On this road trip the starters are AVERAGING 4.67 innings per start and they have played a 19 inning and a 12 inning game.
In their last 4 games the bull pen is AVERAGING 116 pitches per game (average is upper 30s). But - I'm looking ahead!
Cheers and good luck.Comment -
Originally posted by Grinder12000
I think despite the grand slam the 3rd base coaching error waving fielder home was costly.
At the very least youd get the 8th place in the order up in the 8th making sure you'd get to the top of the order in the 9th.
Oh well, yesterday was an improvement.
(this was more of a "fan" post than a betting one )
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I agree with 3B coaching decision to send Fielder. You would have about a 23% chance of hitting him in on the next batter and the OF had to not only make a good throw but the catcher had to catch it and tag.Comment -
Here we go! Get's a little tougher now!
Monday 5/30/11
Record 31-21 +8.92
Cinci has lost 10 of it's last 12 games and mostly because of it's starting pitching with it's 7.10 ERA. Travis Wood will be pitching game #1. The Crew lost to him April 2nd but that game seemed to be an anomaly for him as 38% of his outs are ground balls and he was 50/50 vs. the Crew, he is an extreme Flyball pitcher and it was his BEST game of the year.
As I mentioned yesterday the Brewer bats are at their worst early in the season. However they are also not the best vs. LHP, however Woods has not been THAT good and does not go deep in the game.
The Cinci pen is extremely warn out. It as bad luck that they had a complete game last night but they are VERY tired!
The last time Narveson pitched against Cinci he was throwing up and went like 2 or 3 innings and got rocked. Cinci this year is crushing LHP but with few at bats and the last few years has seen them more even Righty vs. Lefty.
The Cinci top of the order is .248 2.80 runs and 2.4 RBIs the Brewers in same number of games are .270 3.40 runs and 3.30 RBIs
I believe the Brewers are a different team then they were since their last big road trip. They proved it in LA and SD when they split without hitting a HR in those extreme pitcher friendly Parks and Great American Ball Park is particularly friendly to Right handed batters.
Woods in limited starts in Cinci has done poorly compared to on the road and the Brewers WILL see a fair amount of the Cinci pen which, while tired has not been all that bad. Another thing of note is that half of Woods innings are in daylight where he does much better! Night game tonight.
Narveson has been keeping the ball in the ball park this year and at worst will be able to match Wood.
I believe we have two teams pretty evenly matched except for the bottom lines! Brewers are 16-5 in last 21 while Cinci is 2-12 in last 14. However Brewers were mainly at home and Cinci was mainly on the road.
Still - unless the hot team proves they are only a home team I'll go with the team with the better bats! Narveson is hot or cold and maybe Coach Roenicke will have a quick hook if he see's Narvo struggling early. The reds do not have that option.
Paying -122 on a 2-12 team seems like too much. I like the Brew Crew chances.
Brewers as dogs +112Comment -
Lotsa question marks for tonights game. Will the Brewers continue playing well or will it be more of the same on the road? Which Narveson will we see?
The Reds aren't a great team but they are too good to be on such a terrible run forever.
That said I agree with Grinder12000 I think the crew will take this game, but I'm staying away from this game myself, FWIW
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Richards - it's a learning experience with the Crew! sigh!!Comment -
they blow on the road until they figure out how the fuk to win on the road they are screwed this yrComment -
Yea - you can tell it's a road problem when they are making bad decisions and errors! WOW - I was hoping it was otherwise but . . . .Comment -
So you just bet the Brewers every game? Good luck!Comment -
Good luckComment -
They have been doing horrible on the road, but im going with the brew today...i have no faith in the reds. Hope this isn't a bad move! Re-assuring feedback anyone? =S
edit: guess i should of checked the scores from yesterday's game before betting xD, what the fk's up crew?!?! good thing it's a small wager..Comment -
No - only when I believe they will win and the price is what I feel is good. It does look that way though at times! I have trid for many years to do this with stats and numbers and so forth and sucked - SO - I'm trying this using my brain.So you just bet the Brewers every game? Good luck!
Last night - FAIL - And what did we ("I") learn last night? I learned that the Brewers have some problem against LHP. I learned not to trust Narveson.
Record 31-22 +7.92
SO tonight is game #2 on the road and I really do not think last night was a road loss. It was just a loss that happened to be on the road. TONIGHT will be a road loss if the Brewers lose.
I'm 23-11 when I believe the Brewers will win AND, they are Favorites
Today they are Favs and I believe they will win - here is why!
Greinke vs. an unknown dude who has pitched 4 horrible games in the majors in his life making his first start in two years.
The unknown dude walks a ton and is a RHP. Greinke is still in pre season mode and could still give up runs but he had his best game of the year his last outing.
Anybody notice Braun lately? in the last 7 games he has 6 doubles and a triple.
I'm going to make this short - I'm picking the Brewers because of Greinke vs. unknown walking dude. If they lose tonight I'm back on the "they suck on the road bandwagon" but I still feel that part of this is an anomaly, as is the home record.
ya can't compare averages as one is all home games and one is all away games so you have two teams that like to score. One is going against an All-Star Cy Young pitcher and the other a guy that can not find home plate.
After all the Crew do have the highest slugging and 2nd highest OB in the NL in the last 20 games - they are near the top in almost all categories including base on balls!!
Brewers -125Comment -
I like Brewers today also, good luck
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I knew I wasn't the only one, brew crew seem strong, fielder could win in a street fight against any major leaguer he just looks beast modeComment -
I would play the over in this one. Bruce hit his 16th homer and finished a double short of the cycle in Monday's 7-3 series-opening win. The Reds are 6-1 in the season series against the Brewers, and are 11-1 at home versus Milwaukee since the start of 2010.
Bruce is batting .432 with five homers and nine RBIs in the last 10 meetings in Cincinnati and .442 with eight home runs and 19 RBIs in his last 12 games overall.
Cin has won eighth in its last 10 home games overall.
Mil is 8-18 on the road, where they've dropped 11 of 14, the worse in the NL.
Zack Greinke (3-1, 5.79 ERA) he recording a 6.43 ERA in his first four starts with Milwaukee.
Although he did well against WAS Cin has much bigger bats and they are hitting over .250 their last 7 games.
Cin counters with a minor league pitcher so you know Mil will get a few runs. Basically it comes down to hot hitting team against an OK pitcher and an OK hitting team against a rookie.
I think the over has much more value at 9 -115Comment -
Take the OVerComment -
+ units is + units no matter on if you bet the brewers every game lol, keep up the good work..big brewer fan here as well, hopefully they can figure out these road woes..Comment -
On the Brewers myself fellas. Let cash it!!!!!!!!!Comment -
i took crew ova 4Comment -
Corey Hart
Good to win the first one (o4.5 FF)Comment -
hell yea corey!!!!!Comment -
looks like we made a good pick boys!Comment
