Originally posted by Grinder12000
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Couldn't have said it any better myself, Grinder. I'm also taking the Brewers. Good luck!Comment -
Sunday 6/12/11
Tough game to call today.
Record 37-27 +8.00
Nice victory last night. Greinke took away the base on balls from the cards and it worked last night. When a team has a key part of their offense taken away the offense struggles.
Today I sort of see this with the Brewers. Jake Westbrook is an EXTREME ground ball pitchers that does not give up home runs. Now typically what happens is that the big guys like Fielder will still hit HR's but the peripheral players like Lucroy and Weeks and dare I sat McGehee will not add that "extra" homerun.
Westbrook's problem is control. He walks a lot of guys. The good news is that he is good vs. LHB but poor vs. RHB! I'm not sure the Brewers are a good club when it comes to pitchers that are all over the place with control. They like pitchers that pitch to contact, not nibblers! Westbrook has problems holding runners on base so watch for the Crew to steal to stay out of the DP today!
So I feel that the Crew might have a problem today. Westbrook takes away the long but but GIVES up more people on base BUT, gets helped out by throwing a lot of DP balls! The Brewers have enough double play players (Braun, Betancorp, Gomez, Lucroy, McGehee) that can take some of those walks off base real fast and Westbrook will give them lots of opportunity to hit into a DP.
Marcum has been outstanding, the guy has not had a bad outing YET!! So I'm not concerned with the Cards not scoring a lot of runs but more how many will the Brewers score.
Do I think the Brewers will win? Yes I do.
But the question is, is -153 too steep to pay? I believe it is!
That is why I'm going with the cards at +138 today.
On a side bet I'm also playing the UNDER 8.5 for a tad/fun amount.
Brewers got it going for sure and I can totally see a sweep but I'm not paying -153 against an extreme ground ball pitcher. AND, come to think of it, the Sunday line-up! Seems Sundays are always a little weird with the lineups.Comment -
hope your wrong as im sure u do as well! lets get in 1st place, marcum dont blow it late in the gameComment -
What Up Grinder Please tell me you like Brew Crew tomo vs ScrubsComment -
man they're slackin lately- pretty unreliable. 2 weeks ago i was willin to pick them to take their whole league and meet the redsox in the WSComment -
Monday 6/13/11
Record 37-28 +7.00
On to the Cubs and I can not find a real reason to bet on the Cubs. The linemakers say the game is a 50/50 split but I'm not seeing it.
First I had to get in-tune with the Cubbies so here are the raw stats coming into the series for the last 10 games.
Top of the Order
Brewers .266 3.10 Runs 3.40 RBI's (this is about the highest the Crew have been this year)
Cubbies .241 2.20 runs 1.80 RBIs
Pitching Starters ERA / Pen ERA
Brewers 3.34 / 2.70
Cubbies 5.92 / 4.46
Back end of the Pen could be tired with Loe and Axford both going 2 days in a row. The rest of the pen have had 3 days off.
For the Cubs set-up man Marshall (the Loe for the Cubs) is tired.
In the last 20 games Cubs are 5-15 Brewers are 15-5
AVG - Brewers .256 Cubs .236
On Base Crew .316 Cubs .281
Slugging Crew .454 Cubs .354
Pitching Brewers 3.10 Cubs 5.13
Home Runs Brewers 30 Cubs 11
Runs Crew 101 Cubs 69
in every facet of the game the Brewers are way way better, yet the Brewers are -104 only?
Why??
Wolf vs. Dempster
Dempster 50/50 GB/fB pitcher that gives up a SHIT load of homeruns! He is 8-6 in games he has started with a 5.96 ERA and in the past 3 years he is 11-1 vs. Milwaukee which is probably why the game is EVEN. He does VERY well against the Brewers.
Wolf has been pitching GREAT. I looked at the Cubs vs LHP and they are slightly better but pathetic to slightly less pathetic still has the word pathetic in it.
So while Dempster might have the Brewers number the Brewers are just red hot and going on the road to a little band box ballpark won't stop them.
The Cubs are coming off THEIR road trip from hell playing very good teamS, St.Louis (were in 1st place), Cincinnati (1ST place last year) and Philly(1st place) and now play Milwaukee (1st place). OUCH!! talk about a nightmare stretch of games. OH wait - the Yankees come to Wrigley after the Brewers (insert evil laugh).
I gotta love the Brewers at -104
BTW - in 7 of Fielders last 9 HRs he has given the Brewers the lead. One HR only tied the game while the other HR was a meaningless 420 foot bomb!
Doesn't it seem like we have had Randy Wolf for more the 1 full year? HE is a FB pitcher that has also given up HRs which is a concern but in a Home Run duel I'll take the Brewers in a 50/50 game any day!
GO CREW!! -103
Poor Todd Coffey in a throw back uni!
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like the cubs also,good luckComment -
Thanks for the write up.
Taking the Brewers today hopefully the bats stay hot!Comment -
Thanks man, go Brew Crew!Comment -
i think the cubs are better then many think
i think the best pla tonight is over 7,5 @ 1,971Comment -
^oh yea? what's good about cubs? to me they look bad.Comment -
I think the cubs are horrendous. I love riding the hot team with the brew crew todayComment -
Heh good Coffey time pic. Been away for awhile, just catching u p to the thread.
Dillard... I like 'im!Comment -
The Cubs are terrible bro. They are 2-11 straight up in their last 13 games, and 1-5 in their last 6 games at home. While the Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games, and 5-1 in their last 6 games on the road. The only thing that scares me about this game is Dempster's success against the Brewers. Since April of 2010, he has 4 wins and one no decision against Milwaukee. Although his success, I still take the Brewers bats (or Prince Fielder's bat) over the Cubbies.Originally posted by KarimComment -
Brewers -105 is a great price for their hot bats.Comment -
i sure hope were right with the brewers tonight and the cubs are bad and wolf has been pitching well, hopefully brewers continue their streak! good luckkk everyoneComment -
i agree it all comes down to prince fielder and ryan braun. weeks and mcgee have been slumping and the others do not hit often enough. dempster is good, will not be an easy game. tt under maybe.Comment -
I guess when the linemakers say 50/50 they mean it'll be close.
A couple comments - WHY WHY WHY pitch Loe 3 days in a row. COME ON MAN? Been there, done that, don't do it again.
Squeeze play? COME ON MAN. This was a case where something that has like a 30% chance of success was successful once to often. Plus - KNOW YOUR PITCHER!! Wolf is a terrible bunter!!!! Yea - he can hit but he is a TERRIBLE bunter. Coach - you have all the stats - you should know that. If I know it YOU should know it.
Record 37-29 +5.96
Tuesday 6/14/11
Randy Wells takes on Gallardo tonight.
Wells does not have a lot in his bag of tricks and once batters have seen him a couple times in a game he sort of comes undone. HE has been makeing his outs with Flyballs and is tossing 2 HRs a game while walking 5 per 9 innings while averaging 4.5 innings per start.
He got worse last year and is even MORE worse this year. Brewers are going to score tonight!
The Brewers - MAN their starting staff is wonderful!
Gallardo does well vs. the Cubs and is 6-2 in games he has started and 2-2 in Chicago. this game is all about the pitching today and if Gallardo pitches average the Brewers win.
I don't know what the Over/Under is but I would be taking the Over on this one.
BTW - I was so proud of myself last night as I picked the UNDER. The problem was when I looked at my account it did not seem right. DAMN IT - I picked Cinci/LA to go UNDER - why is it whenever you make a mistake - it NEVER wins!!
OH - on Sportsline live Chat - a new name for McGehee - Slumpy McGoo!Comment -
Brewers ML at -138 on Bodog do you think the line will continue to increase in value or better to jump on it now? I think it opened at -140 somethingComment -
Milw. hits ~.364 vs Wells, so although the Brewers havn't been hitting all that well the past week, I can see a return to form against Wells. I notice Wells BAA goes ballastic (.354 BAA) after 30 pitches, so if the Brewers can be patient at the plate they'll be into Cubs bully (4.54 ERA) in no time.....Originally posted by Grinder12000
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Horse shit managing the last 2 nights cost the Brewers 2 games! I like Roenicke but he has some real blind spotsComment -
Wednesday 6/15/11
I suppose you could blame the Brewer offense the last 2 nights for making me lose money as the Brewers SHOULD have been up by at least 7 runs by the 4th inning last night. But when the offense does not click you need to take control and not mess things up.
The last two nights Coach Roenicke has FAILED to use the Bull Pen properly and it's cost us 2 games. Two nights ago he had Wolf, a HORRIBLE bunter but good hitter try a suicide squeeze. FAIL. Then in a 0-0 game he brings in Loe who has proven that when he pitch's 3 days in a row, that 3rd day will be FUBR! And he proved it again. FAIL!!
Then last night, since he can not use Loe in a perfect spot he brings in rookie Estrada, not Hawkins, not Dillard (who has been great). Of course hind site is wonderful but . . . . but . . FAIL
THEN! THEN! - . . . . I first I was miffed at the final play logic, walk Castro and set up for a DP, right? However - Castro is a huge ground ball hitter, much more then Ramirez. If he walks Castro there is a 64% chance Ramirez hits a FB and win the game. Don't listen to the talking heads, Ramirez does not hit into THAT many DPs. It seems they just make up crap sometimes.
The correct play WAS to pitch to Castro as there is a 56% chance for a Ground Ball and an out at HOME. I apologize to Coach for calling him a bad name last night on that final play.
Today - I was really hoping the Brewers would have won the 1st two games because tonight will be tough. They do not do well vs. Zambrano!
In the past 3 years ZAM is 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA vs Milwaukee and with the wind blowing in tonight I don't see many HR's. Plus Zam is very good in night games with an ERA more then 2 runs lower at night then in the day!
Chris Narveson - what do you do with this guy - which pitcher will show up today. In HIS last 3 years he has 21 innings vs the Cubs and 22 Ks. He shut out the Cubs earlier this year.
SO - the question is. Are the Brewers in a road funk? The Cubs lack offense, the Brewers lack road offense.
Brewers are slight dogs tonight on a cold windy night in Chicago with the wind blowing in! WTF!!
The Brewers are 9-13 when they do not hit a Home Run and 29-17 when they have at least one dinger. So the question is, will there be a HR tonight? Zambrano has given up 3 HR's in his last 60 Brewer innings!
sadly - I have to play the Cubs at -115 - I hope I lose!Comment -
Nice write up bro, this is an enjoyable thread.
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Perhaps UNDER would be a good play here? They don't have one posted on Bodog yet, but they have each team O/U listed as 4, so I am guessing probably around 8.
Also UNDER 1.5 HR's is currently at +105, this also seems tempting for a small amount if the pitching and wind hold up.
Any thoughts on either of these plays or do you only play ML?
I agree with Redscot that this is an enjoyable thread and its nice to read through one that isn't drama filled!
Thanks for the write ups.Comment -
im so sick of the crew blowing games ..u r spot on with the loe thing and walking castroComment -
1*o8 -115Comment -
god these brewers have screwed me, I'm staying away from this one and am expecting the Cubs to sweep in all honesty. Not betting on it though.Comment -
Love your write ups, they're spot-on. Never closely followed Brewers (I love Phillies) but now I just read your writeups and $$ in the bank!
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I don't see how the cubs sweep a great team Milwaukee. Narveson will get it done for Brewers tonight. Narveson has pitched very well against these bad cubbies. Brewers avoid the sweep tonight. Cubbies haven't swept anyone of late. GL for those cubbies backers. I'm on Brewers big. I had cubbies game 1, but not game 2.Comment -
cubby bats come alive in the 5th. Cubs gon' sweep!Comment -
I'll tell ya - if I was collecting baseball cards I would be snarfing up rookie Starlin Castro cards like there is no tomorrow. I remember watching Yount when he was 20 and Griffy Jr when he was 20. Castro will be around for a long long time and someone I listen to once told me that when a 20 year old plays in the Majors s a starter the guy will become great! He not only has natural talent already but has 6 to 7 years to get even better.
So what did we learn last night? We learned why Hawkins has been played so sparingly. They were nursing his shoulder, making sure it was stable before he has a full work load. We also learned that Hawkins and Roenicke had a one on one which sounds like we will now see more of Hawkins in future games. Put me in coach.
Not having a great wagering series so far - 0-3.
Record 37-30 +4.81
Greinke vs. Garza.
Garza is the kind of pitcher the Brewers typically have some problems with being neither a GB or FB pitcher and not giving up a lot of HR's THIS YEAR. But is this an anomaly? In the past he is an EXTREME FB pitching giving up HRs right and left. He walks a lot of people and that gives the Crew an extra weapon, more people on base. Another flaw is that he does not go deep in games meaning the Cubs bullpen will be in play and there is only a 53% chance the Cub pen will have success (compared to the Brewers 61% chance).
Garza averages just under 6 innings per start giving their bull pen a full 3 innings and the Cub pen has an ERA of late of 4.57. The Cubs are 2-8 in games Garza has started. I'm not sold Garza is as good as he has been so far this year.
Greinke has been pitching excellent and the Crew are 7-1 in games he has started and I feel he is now getting into his season mode. The guy has walked ONLY 7 so far this year and 60 Ks? That's unheard of!! The Cubs only have a .279 On Base % ANYWAY so he is not taking anything away the Cubs already don't have (did that makes sense? I get dizzy when I read that sentence). But the Cub offense is not really a worry.
The CUB top of the order is hitting .242 with 2.23 Runs and 2.08 RBs per game lately. The Brewers Top of the Order .275 with 3.23 runs and 3.15 RBI's. And of course they hit a Home Run last night and won.
30-17 with a HR
9-13 without a HR
Simple game to call here.
Brewer bats can out muscle Cub bats with ease.
Brewers -124 and pretty confidant.
BTW - Lucroy is hitting .169 the last 20 games! We will see Kottaras behind the plate today, I like his bat.Comment -
Jumping off the bandwagon.
WOW I got swept in Chicago! I could not be more perfect in my ineptitude. First 4 game losing streak.
The Brewers hit 2 home runs and in games with 2+ HRs the Brewers are now 19-5.
Record 37=31 +3.61
ON TO BOSTON and wow - can we step on a hornets nest? Why stop - let's give it a kick.
This is a super duper critical 26 games for the Brewers. When the schedule came up this part of the schedule was circled in big red letters. If the Crew can make it to July 10th, just before the AS game and we are still in site of 1st place - we are good to go.
OK tonight! We have an opportunity and there is a little trend working with us. "FADE the worst pitcher on a 1st place team".
Marcum vs. Lackey.
Lackey has a well deserved 7.41 ERA. He is a Fly Ball pitcher that gives up home runs. He is worse at home and worse at night. He has an On Base of .379 and players steal at will against him. And he has a 5 year $82 million contract.
If the Brewers can not hit this guy . . oh man!!!
I'm not even going to mention the raw numbers for the Red Sox - they are unbelievable (OK OK .337 4.78R 5.44 RBI). Look at it in these terms. In the last 20 games the Red Sox are 1st in average, 1st in Runs, 1st in HR, 1st in OB, only 4 errors, highest OBA, Highest SLG, 2nd most walks. However - remember when the Brewers came home after a great road trip and were flat?
Boston had a GREAT road trip and come home to the Stanley Cup euphoria. Will they be flat? I think so!
They go against Marcum who is the Brewer ace. So we have the #5 pitcher vs. the #1. The Crew are road dogs at +120.
This to me was a no-brainer play for the dog.
Yesterdays game was ONE game involving 3 pitchers, the not entire pen or starting staff. The Brewer bats are still very potent. Fenway is a not a big HR park. Just enough for the big boys to hit HR's and all the rest doubles. There will be LOTS of doubles this weekend.
Easy pick - Brewers +120Comment -
Lets go marlinsComment -
thanks, grinder!
right behind you on the brew crew road dogs tonight!
marcum will embrace the atmosphere at fenway,
and have a great night. lackey, on the other hand,
has been unimpressive (at best), and the milwaukee
bats should light him up early. you're absolutely right.
thanks, again!
and good luck, grinderman!Comment -
Boston got pounded when the line opened....
If you like brew wait you will get a better priceComment
