EP36's: Chase For 60

[waco66]

Everyone has bad picks

[GGPLAYER]

Yeah I grossly over-estimated Sonnanstine's ability to at least be in control until the middle innings. Figured Hendrickson would get hit, although was hoping it would take longer. Oh well, gotta move on. Shitty pick by me.

You know what's even more insulting is there was not even a run scored after the 3rd inning?!?! I thought for sure this game would land between 15-20 runs after those first 2 innings.

[gambit718]

Dodgers/Phillies Over 10 looking good for tommrow. What do you think? Sorry for that lost. Every great capper has those occasional stinkers.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #60: Mets Team Total OVER 4.5 (-115)
JoJo Reyes on the mound for the Bravos this afternoon. He's given up 4 ER or more in 3 of his 4 starts. Mets raking lefties at home (.366). Reyes, Tatis, Wright & Beltran all have multiple hits off him in very few ABs. Two games started by lefties on this current homestand (Maholm & Moyer), Mets combined for 17 runs.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #61: Yankees/Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 (-115)
Andy Pettitte vs. Scott Richmond. Good match-up here. Pettitte has been solid at Rogers Centre in his career (12-4, 4.04 ERA). In his 3 away starts in 2009, all three have gone UNDER with an average of 5.67 runs total. Richmond has been a quiet force this season for the Jays. 5 of his 6 starts, he's given up 3 ER or less. At home, the totals are averaging 7 runs per game in his 2 starts. In his last 4 starts, the totals have fallen at 9 runs or less. NYY have gone UNDER in 3 of 4 on this road trip. TOR has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5. The topper for me here is that 75% of the last 12 games between the Yanks & Jays in Toronto have cashed UNDER the total. Both starters are very good at getting into the 6th, 7th or later innings which always helps leave out those shaky bullpens!

[diogee]

Nice start EP...leaning on that under as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gettin' raped on these UNDERs lately.

[EaglesPhan36]

Rangers rally and the SERIES wins in Game 2.

[aneurysm00]

Rangers rally and the SERIES wins in Game 2.

When do books pay out for series wins? Is it as soon as someone wins it or do they wait for the series to be completed?

Nice call btw on TEX.

[EaglesPhan36]

Mine (Carib) has payed as soon as the series is decided. So since Texas won the first 2, I got paid tonight. I believe most books worth their salt do it this way.

[MexicanStallion]

Congrats on the series victory .

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #62: Rangers -105
Felix Hernandez vs. Matt Harrison. People are going to get sucked into the low price on Felix here. Hell, I wish they'd push the Rangers into plus money personally. If you don't pay attention, you wouldn't know that Harrison has been the better pitcher in the last few weeks. The lefty has gone 14 IP in his last two starts without allowing a run (19 IP scoreless streak overall) and has won three straight decisions. Felix meanwhile has had his two worst performances of 2009 in his last two starts. 11 ER in his last 10 IP, 6 of those were to Texas in a 6-5 Seattle loss at home. The gopher ball has bit him hard with 4 in that span. Over the years, The Ballpark in Arlington has been unkind to Hernandez. He is 2-5 with a 5.60 ERA there. Throw in that Seattle has lost 8 of its last 10 and is 16-39 in their last 55 at Texas, while the Rangers are streaking with 8 wins in their last 10. Texas has won all four match-ups this season and is coming off the exhilirating 7-6 win in 11 innings last night. Strange as it sounds, the Texas bullpen has been better as well. 2.87 ERA in their last 10, while the Mariners sport a 4.71 ERA in their last 10. Will definitely look at the lineups before going in on this as there could be some different looks with the day game after a night game.

[GGPLAYER]

Liking the Tex pick. When do they confirm line-ups. I got burned by SF yesterday putting in a "c" line-up. Have to be careful with these night/day games. Thanks

[EaglesPhan36]

Listed now. Everything looks kosher.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tow days in a row. Walk Off Especiales!

[GGPLAYER]

High fives all around. WOW! I was a big baby and stopped checking. I had given up. 2-1 on the day.

[MexicanStallion]

Congrats on another solid play

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #63: Indians/Rays OVER 9.5 (-110)
Anthony Reyes vs. Scott Kazmir. Kaz's starts are a perfect 7-0 on the OVER this season. In fact, the only start that has failed to reach double figures in runs was his 1st. Kazmir's home starts have averaged over 14 runs per game and he's given up 6 ER or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. Cleveland is hitting lefties pretty well on the road to the tune of .297. Reyes also comes into tonight in questionable form, yielding over 5 ER in 2 of his last 3 starts and at least 3 ER in 5 of his 6 starts. His roadies are averaging over 13 runs per game, although that was mostly due to bullpen beatdowns after Reyes allowed 3 ER in each of his road starts. Problem for Reyes is getting deep into game. He's normally only making it through 5-6 IP, leaving the bullpen (7.42 road ERA) to get involved early. Rays pen has also been in the giving mood at home, 6.53 ERA. So early exits tonight can only help! Rays have cashed the OVER in 7 of their last 10 at home & the Tribe has been banging the OVER on the road, hitting it in 13 of 18 and 5 straight away from home.

[gambit718]

This play looks like money. I'm in it huge.

[jaymac82980]

great write up. I've been trolling around wondering who else was gonna be on this game. I don't understand why more people aren't talking about it, but I guess when everyone's on a game is when it craps out. so maybe this one will fly below the radar and cash easily. GL

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #64: [SERIES] Reds -105 (Padres)
Pitching Match-ups
G1: Harang vs. Correia
G2: Volquez vs. Geer
G3: Arroyo vs. Peavy

The Reds sport the majors best road mark at 13-5 heading into this series. Fresh of a three game sweep of Arizona and hot, having won 6 of their last 7. On the road, they have won 5 series, lost none and split a two gamer. Padres come in cold. They've lost 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. In Game 1, Harang goes for Cincy. He's 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA this season. His last two road starts were stellar, 14 IP and just 3 runs yielded. He needs better run support, only getting a little over three runs per start. SD is just 2-4 in Correia's starts this season and have lost his last three. He's given up at least 3 ER in 4 of his 6 starts. With the streaks heading into the opener and the pitching match-up, this is a big one to get the series started right for the Reds and keep the Pads reeling. Game 2 favors the Reds. Volquez had a rough outing last time out, giving up 7 ER in 6.2 IP. However, prior to that he had been solid. Back-to-back 8 IP outings with no ER given up. He's 3-0 in three road starts with a 3.32 ERA. Geer has been hit or miss, giving up 4 ER or more in three starts (All Losses) and 1 ER in his two others (1W/1L). He suffers from no run support as well with SD providing just over 3 runs per start. Comes in off his shortest performance, 3 IP at Houston, 7 runs scored. Game 3 would give the edge to the Padres with Peavy vs. Arroyo. Peavy has been dominant vs. CIN (5-0 with a 2.31 ERA). San Diego though has lost 6 of his 8 starts this season and five straight. Arroyo is erratic at best, but has faired well on the road with a 4-0 mark in 4 starts. Reds offense is rolling lately with a .316 avg. in their last 10. They pounded the D-Backs for double figures in 2 of 3 and the bullpen has been solid of late.

[EaglesPhan36]

End of the 4th. Indians 7, Rays 3.

[GGPLAYER]

End of the 4th. Indians 7, Rays 3.

I just realized I forgot to put this on in What's worse is I am on TB <-----Me

[GGPLAYER]

Somehow got the win so every is dancing Strange night. I pushed two totals and lost a two tough ones with Cin and SF. I go 3-2-2 and end up exactly even on the day??

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice rally on TB.

[EaglesPhan36]

Boy did the Reds bullpen kill me this weekend. Trying to enjoy a weekend on the town, saw these scores with them leading only to check the finals and see the meltdown by the pen. Since the Reds series bet is dead, Reds should win today by default.

[laxdjock]

The CIN series killed me too. blah.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #65: Pirates +105
Ross Ohlendorf vs. Ross Detwiler. Ohlendorf has quietly had a pretty solid season for the Buccos. He's 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA. Five of his seven starts have yielded 3 ER or less. He's also won 4 of his last 5 starts. The Nats are starting a young lefty with promise, but a pitcher who is making the jump from Double-A to make his first major league start. Pittsburgh seemed to right their ship a bit at home after that long losing streak, by winning 4 of 6. They also banged out 18 runs in their last two games which could ignite their offense. They have struggled on the road (5-12), but the Nationals have struggled at home (5-11). Both bullpens are utterly useless, so this one could go to the team that gets its starter deepest into the game. For me, I'll take the experience and form of Ohlendorf who has made it through at least 6 IP in 6 straight starts over the rookie making his debut. If the Pirates can unravel the rookie early, they could roll up a nice lead and make the bullpen moot. Remember, they do hit when Ohlendorf is on the mound - he's getting close to 5 runs of support per start.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #66: Rockies/Braves OVER 8.5 (-130)
Jason Marquis vs. Derek Lowe. Marquis' starts have gone OVER in 4 of 6. Lowe's in 6 of 8. Both are getting over 6 runs of support from their offenses per start which bodes well here. Marquis has a career ERA against Atlanta over over 11 and has been lit up for 14 ER in his last 9.2 IP. Lowe's three home starts are averaging over 11 runs per contest and his starts have hit the OVER in 4 straight. Both bullpens offer more chances for run scoring with Colorado sporting a 5.24 ERA and the Braves at 4.53. Rockies have been pelted for 18 runs in their last two games by the Pirates and have given up 39 runs in their last 5. Braves have given up 29 runs in their last 5 and surrendered 12 against Arizona on Saturday in their last game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn. Really epxected Atlanta to tee off on Marquis. One out of two is better than none out of two. Thanks Buccos.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #67: Brewers/Astros UNDER 8 (-110)
Pitchers Especiale here. Yovani Gallardo vs. Wandy Rodriguez. Gallardo has three lifetime starts vs. HOU, 3-0 with an ERA of 0.75. That includes a 5-2 win at Houston earlier this season where Gallardo went for the complete game win. His 4 away starts this season are averaging just over 6 runs per game. Wandy has been just as dominant at home with a 2-1 record and 0.67 ERA in 4 starts. All four went UNDER the total. Big thing here is the efficiency of Gallardo. Milwaukee has been letting him hit 100 pitches or over, but in the last game that only got him through 5 IP. Milwaukee's pen has been steady of late, but as usual, the later you get a starter into the game in today's baseball world, the better! Goes double for Wandy as the Astros pen has been very giving. Good news is he's gone at least 6 IP in 7 of his 8 starts. UNDER continues to be a solid bet at Minute Maid Park, hitting 19 of the last 29 games. That includes 3 of the 4 meetings between these two teams.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #68: Diamondbacks/Marlins G1 UNDER 8.5 (-110)
Doug Davis vs. Christopher Volstad in Game 1 of the double header. This series between the D-Backs and Marlins has been an UNDER feast dating back to last season. Of the last ten meetings, only one total has gone as high as 9 & the UNDER has hit 7 of 10 with the three non-wins being pushes. Doug Davis' starts have averaged just 6.38 runs overall. Of his 8 starts, he's gotten only 22 runs of support. Volstad's home starts have gone over in 3 of 4, mostly due to bullpen which has given up 10 runs in those starts after Volstad exited. Arizona on the road this season is 10-2-2 in favor of the UNDER. Marlins are hitting just .163 vs. lefties in their last 10. Marlins pen has been better in the last 10 at 3.21, but is two runs worse than that at home. Arizona's pen has better road numbers. Be better off if both starts get into the 6th or 7th. Both are fairly consistent at getting 6, but much further might be asking for a lot. Arizona has had its two biggest road outputs in their last two games (17 runs total). Before that though, they had scored 3 runs or less in 10 of 14 road games.

[diogee]

Good luck EP...on both those unders as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hope it turns out better than the last one we both liked.

[EaglesPhan36]

Smashing start. I think you're my jinx.