Russell Martin - killing my fantasy league, killing me here. Dodgers got a leadoff triple from Hudson. Manny, Ethier & Martin due up. Manny grounds out. Ethier walks. Martin - of course, game ending DP. Worthless bastard.
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Play #11: [SERIES] Cubs -160 (Brewers)
Cubs roll out Harden, Zambrano & Dempster against Looper, Bush & Suppan. Harden completely baffled the Brew Crew in two starts last season, allowing just two ER in 12+ IP. Cubs won both starts. Looper struggled in day starts in 2008, going 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA. Zambrano had 3 starts vs. MIL last season. Cubs lost 2 by 4-3 scores and then won 7-1 in his lone Miller Park start. He is 7-5 in 12 starts at Miller Park with a 3.24. He'll be matched by David Bush who is a miserable 1-7 vs. CHI in 11 career starts. He pitched one inning in the Brewers opener in relief of Suppan and gave up 2 runs. Dempster pitched 5 times against MIL last season: 30 IP, 8 ER, Cubs won 4 of 5. Suppan is 6-6 against the Cubs, won both home starts in 2008. Overall, Cubs have won 9 of the last 13 meetings in MIL (includes 4 game sweep last June) & generally have actually fared better against MIL there than at Wrigley. I think the key is getting off with a win for Harden who had problems getting run support at times from the Cubs. Still, they went 9-4 in his starts after the trade, so like the shot there especially with MIL struggling offensively so far.Comment -
Play #12: Rockies +110
Cole Hamels make his 1st start of the season, while Jason Marquis starts his first regular season game as a Colorado Rockies pitcher. Like the Rockies in this spot for a few reasons. #1, the health of Hamels. He had the arm issues in the Spring that held him out for awhile. For me, I'd like to see Hamels prove his health before I'd be comfortable backing him. #2, Hamels has never pitched at Coors Field. yes, the culture is a bit different about Coors Field now - but I think it still sits in a pitcher's mind the first time he takes the mound there. #3, Marquis surprisingly has pitched well at Coors Field in his career. A 3-0 record with a 2.51 ERA. He has also won 3 out of his 4 starts against Philly dating back to 2006. He's shut down Rollins (3 for 31), which is always a good place to start. Utley has had success against him (7 for 16), while he's mostly pitched around Howard. Chris Coste & Raul Ibanez have had some limited success and they could be the X-factors. Colorado is hitting .367 early against lefties + let's face it, the Phillies were one inning of piss poor ATL pitching away from being 0-3. If Hamels struggles some, the Rockies have a chance to pounce early & hopefully build Marquis a little cushion.Comment -
Play #13: [SERIES] Mariners +140 (A's)
Good price here on a series that might be a little closer to an even price tag with the pitching match-ups. Under-rated Aussie Ryan Rowland-Smith gets the nod tonight for Seattle. He pitched twice against OAK as a starter last season, yielding 4 ER in 14 IP, SEA went 1-1 losing his better pitched game, 2-0. A's counter with phenom Brett Anderson who had a solid Spring. Games 2 & 3 should give SEA a more definitive pitching advantage with Felix on Saturday & Bedard on Sunday vs. Outman & Braden. Felix is a solid 7-4 with a 2.56 ERA against OAK, including 4 wins in 6 tries at McAfee. Outman made one start against SEA last season, losing 4-3. Bedard is 2-3 with a 3.58 ERA against OAK, but is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA at McAfee in two starts. Braden has an 8.71 ERA is three starts against SEA. Both Felix & Bedard are solid in day starts. Of the 9 games in OAK last season in this series, only one was played with a margin or more than two runs.Comment -
Play #14: Giants +105
Zito vs. Hill. Okay, so Barry Zito couldn't beat most Pony League teams last year ... except the San Diego Padres. Three starts, three Giants wins. Over his career, Zito is 3-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 10 appearances against SD. Decent PETCO numbers, 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 5 appearances. Outdueled Peavy last August in a 2-0 road win for SF. Shawn Hill lost his only career start vs. SF, a 6-0 decision last year with Washington. He only gave up 2 ER in 7+ IP. Giants went 7-2 at PETCO last year and beat the Padres 13 of 18 times. That was a big turnaround after they lost all their series to SD in 2007. Both teams got off on the good foot in their opening series, but SD struggled against LA's lefty starters to the tune of .188. Super WTF are you picking him factoid of the day: Zito's team hasn't won his first start of the season since 2003. I spit on Super WTF factoids.Comment -
Play #15: Pirates/Reds OVER 8.5 (+105)
Maholm vs. Cueto. Maholm doesn't have bad numbers against the Reds, but they are worse at Great American Ballpark. 0-2 record in 7 starts & an ERA over 5 despite his solid start there in 2008. His day start #s also sport an ERA over 5 for his career. Cueto showed the inconsistencies of youth in his 3 starts vs. PIT in 2008. He gave up 5 ER early in an April start on the road, limited them a 2 ER/3 runs total in a May start & only gave up 1 ER in a road start late in the year. His home #s found an ERA at 4.71 with his day starts sporting an ERA under 4. This series in Cincy though has favored the OVER. Last season, 7 of 9 at the GAP hit at least 9 runs for the total. In 2007, 5 of 7 hit that number or better. Brandon Phillips has ridiculous #s against Maholm, 10 for 29, 3 HR, 7 RBI. Taveras also has solid #s, 5 hits in 13 ABs. Hairston, Jr. (batting 2nd today) has 3 hits in 5 ABs & Encarnacion has a .400 avg & 6 RBIs. So the Reds have the bats to do damage. And I think they'lll have to do more of it as Cueto possesses the talent to keep PIT mostly in check, but if erratic, could give up some runs. Cause would be helped if either starter checks out around the 5th or 6th as both bullpens can be shaky at times. Wind will be blowing from left to right field & perhaps out toward right at 10-13 mph on a crisp, clear day in the 50s.Comment -
Sweet. My boys in black pounding the ball in the 9th to rescue this one.
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Play #16: Cubs -130
Carlos Zambrano vs. Dave Bush. Bush has had little success against the Cubs in his career, 1-7 in 11 starts with a 4.84 ERA. Last season in 3 starts, he yielded 14 ER in 3 starts against CHC & the Brewers lost all three starts. in 2007, it was another 14 ER in 3 starts vs. the Fuzzies and three more MIL losses. Over that span, the Cubs scored 9,7,5,6,11 & 7 runs. Date it back to 2006, Bush pitched better against the Cubs - holding them under 3 ER in 4 starts - but in 5 starts total, there will still 4 losses at the end of the day. Big Z is 10-8 with a 3.65 ERA in 22 career starts against MIL, 7-5 at Miller Park in 12 starts. The M.O. for Zambrano in any of those losses was a lack of run support. In his last 7 starts vs. MIL, Zambrano has given up just 13 runs & he yielded just 1 in 3 starts in 2008. Over that span however, the Cubs scored more than 3 runs in just 4 of the starts. That shouldn't be as much of an issue today against one of their favorite whipping boys in Bush. That should also hopefully leave the bullpen out of the equation so that no one has to relive yesterday's 9th inning meltdown.Comment -
Sweet rally by the Mariners today to close out the Series win.
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Cubs are officially black listed until their bullpen gets through a series without getting pounded.
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Oh Mylanta! Alfonseeeeeeeee for 2! If Gregg pitches the 9th, I'm gonna puke. MARMOL please.Comment -
That was a thing of beauty. My guess is that the Kevin Gregg closer experiment is finished until Carlos Marmol fails. Keeps the series bet alive as well!
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Huge swing.....that just made my day
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Will you continue to post plays?Comment -
Play #17: Nationals/Braves OVER 9 (+100)
Scott Olsen vs. Jair Jurrjens. Olsen has had little success at Turner Field. A 1-2 record with a 6.83 ERA in 6 career starts. His day numbers also reflect a giving mood, 5.34 ERA in 33 day starts. Several of the Braves have raked Olsen regularly, Matt Diaz .444 (3 HR), Chipper .571 (12 RBI), McCann .278 (2 HRs), Francouer (2 HR, 7 RBI). Jurrjens is coming off a hot start against PHI, but has trouble keeping his pitch count down at times & did have himself in jams against the Phillies. That could help get into a Braves bullpen that sports an ERA of 7.71 so far this season. Jurrjens has a 1-1 record with a 3.70 ERA in 4 starts against WAS. In 3 of the 4 starts last season, despite Jurrjens holding the Nats down, the game totals still finished above today's number. The Nats scored 5, 8 & 8 runs in the games that went OVER. In all, this series has gone over in 10 of the last 12 meetings. Braves have scored at least 4 runs in every game this season. Nationals have yielded at least 5 in every game. The key to me is for WAS to get into that ATL bullpen by the 6th or 7th to maybe add a run or two. Braves should be able to have success against Olsen & might be capable of doing a lot of the damage by themselves to get past this #. Check those lineups before game time, but being early in the season - rested starters should be minimal if any.Comment -
Play #18: Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 (-125)
Wolf vs. Haren. Wolf has some decent numbers at Chase Field, an ERA of 3.90 there. However, his last two starts there yielded 7 ER in 12+ IP. His ERA in two starts against the D-Backs last year was 7.84. Haren is a stud through & through, but the Dodgers did give him some troubles in his first year in the NL. He was 2-3 with a 5.20 ERA, but most of that damage came @ L.A. He did give up 3 runs & 5 runs in 2 of the 3 starts vs. LA at home though. If would be a superb day if the Dodgers could get Haren out of the game early & get a hold of the leaky D-Backs bullpen. Still, Blak, Ethier, Kemp & Manny have solid #s vs. Haren. Dodgers come in off a great offensive night & the OVER has hit in 9 of 11 in this series at Arizona, including 6 straight.Comment -
Cubs SERIES win closes the week. I can't stand the Cubs and feel for anyone here who is a fan because the 9th inning of any game they lead this season is going to chew your insides up every time. Sheesh.
Weekly Total: 14-3 (+17.85 units)
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Hell of a week EP. Keep em rolling next week.Comment -
Play #2: Giants Regular Season Win Total UNDER 79.5 (-115)
Changed around my season play from the Rangers to the Giants after watching a little of the opening week. Believe this is a great value spot for a Giants team that hasn't eclipsed this number of wins since 2004. Once again, offense appears to be the main issue for this club. They did open with a bang against the Brewers, but were shut down in losing 2 of 3 to the Padres afterward. Lincecum also doesn't look right early on, which could pose a major problem. Cain & Johnson will continue to provide good outings, but to me it seems like the starters will need to pitch awfully well most nights to keep this team in the game. From 2005-2008, the giants have only hit better than .500 against NL West opponents once at 38-35 in 2005. Otherwise, they have been around .500 or below against the division. With the Dodgers, D-Backs & Rockies all possessing superior offensive talent and the Padres already having beaten them a couple times ... that trend of .500 or below could continue. Against NL Central opponents, they have been right around the .500 mark except for last year's 11-29 mark. Again with strong teams there, they could fail a bit below .500. Surprisingly, they have had success against the NL East with winning records two years running (19-13,18-17). Interleague wise, they do not find a great amount of success having one winning season against the AL since 2005 at 8-7 in 2006. Otherwise, it's 6-12, 5-10 & 6-12. Althoug the NL West is viewed as the weakest division in the Senior Circuit, I think the Giants will still have issues winning games within the division. With 72, 71, 76 & 75 wins over the past four years & the 2nd worst run producing offense in baseball last year & a sometimes shaky bullpen, I'll take the shot that they don't hit 80 wins this year.
*Bet is NO ACTION is less than 160 games played*Comment -
WowComment -
You're doing great job here Eagles, GL for all season...Comment -
Play #19: Phillies -120
Jamie Moyer vs. Daniel Cabrera. One might shy away from the geriatric wonder Moyer, but his lifetime #s vs. WAS are solid. 19 starts, 9-4 record & a 2.87 ERA. IN 2008 in 5 starts against the Nationals, Moyer went 3-0 with a 2.54 ERA. That included two road wins where he gave up just 3 ER in 12 IP. For day starts, Moyer was 7-2 last season with a 3.51 ERA & has in general been solid during the day. PHI is 7-1 in Moyer's last 8 starts vs. WAS. Even though Moyer gave up 4 ER in 5 IP on his first start, not great, but those numbers with the Phillies offense now more lively would probably have the team more in the game this week than against the Braves last week. Cabrera has only faced the Phillies twice, 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA. Raul Ibanez could be a key today as the former American League has really nice numbers against him, .346 AVG. 2 HR, 7 RBI. Rollins also has 3 hits in 4 ABs against Cabrera.Comment -
Play #20: Astros/Pirates OVER 9 (+105)
Moehler vs. Duke. Moehler has been poor against the Pirates in his career, 5-5 with a 5.84 ERA. That includes a 2-3 record with a 5.88 ERA at PNC Park in 6 appearances. Moehler was horrible during day starts in 2008. 0-2 in 5 starts with an ERA of 8.63 ERA. Several of the Pirates have killed Moehler in the past. Adam LaRoche .364 with 1 HR, 6 RBI. McLouth is 6 for 11. Sanchez 7 for 13. Jack Wilson, 5 for 15. Duke is 1-4 lifetime against the Astros with a 3.81 ERA. He was bad during day starts in 2008 also at 2-3 in 8 starts with a 6.18 ERA. He has a 5.20 ERA in his career during day starts. He did hold the Astros to 2 ER in his one home start against them in 2008, but got hit for 6 ER on the road in Houston. Berkman & Lee have been the big boppers against him, combing for 13 hits in 42 ABs with 7 RBI. All four of Moehler's starts against PIT in 2008 went OVER. Check those lineups as always.Comment -
Astros will likely be sporting a different lineup today: Jason Michaels in CF instead of Bourn. Quintero catching instead of Pudge & Keppinger at 3B. With the exception of Quintero catching, these might actually benefit the Astros offensively against the lefty.Comment -
was on the over in the buccos game for all the same reasons as you eaglesphan... GLComment -
Play #21: [SERIES] White Sox +135 (Tigers)
White Sox went 12-6 against the Tigers in 2008. That included a 5-4 record @ DET where they won two series and lost one. Gavin Floyd, John Danks & Jose Contreras get the nods for the ChiSox. Floyd has been busy against DET, 9 starts in his short career with a 4-0 record and a 3.23 ERA. That includes a 2-0 record at Comerica Park in 4 starts. Floyd is a stellar 13-3 in day starts. Zach Miner goes for DET in Game 1. He is 2-5 in 13 appearances against the Sox with a 5.29 ERA. He did start two games last season though that ended in DET wins. He gave up just 2 runs in each start. Danks is 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA in 6 starts vs. DET. He'll go against the rookie, Porcello, who got beat up for 4 ER in 5 IP at TOR in his debut. ChiSox won all 3 of Danks' starts against DET in 2008. Contreras goes in Game 3. He is 4-4 at Comerica Park with a 4.40 ERA in 11 starts. He goes against Galarraga. Feeling is the Sox probably need to get the first two in this series because the last game leans to DET. Sox got their bats going finally against MIN, scoring 19 runs in 3 games after just 5 against KC in the first 3. Floyd & Danks were tough luck losers in that series as the Sox lost their starts 2-0 & 2-1. Worth a shot here at + odds.Comment -
astros over was my total of the day but I see the number is fallingComment -
Doesn't always mean it's a bad play. I think a lot of people started going under because it may rain in the middle innings. Moehler still stinks, so hopefully the Pirates continue to get to him and get into the bullpen which has been shaky early this season. Would help if Houston could at least get 3-4 runs.Comment -
Hou is a joke. Back to back shut-outs? A 1-6 start and you have Tejada, Berkman and Lee in the middle of that line-up putting up doughnuts
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Yep. I knew Duke would keep them at-bay, but I figured they could at least muster a couple runs. They just don't hit decent starting pitching. Luckily, Philly held on for a split on the day + the Pale Hose got Game 1 to give a leg up on the SERIES wager. All-in-all, no loss on the day - I'll take it.Comment -
Play #22: Blue Jays Team Total OVER 4 (-110)
Making one extra play today. See if I get burned breaking my no more than 2 single plays in a day. Probably, but what the hey. Think you can make a case for either of two plays with TOR vs. MIN tonight. Toronto is 16-5 against Minnesota in the last 21 and has beaten them in 9 straight over the past two seasons. Litsch, tonight's starter, has pitched the Jays to 3 wins in 4 tries against MIN. BUt, I'm going with the Team Total. Tonight's Twins starter, Slowey, has started three games vs. TOR over the past two seasons. Jays won all 3, scoring 8, 5 & 9 runs in those games. On the season, TOR has scored at least 4 runs in 6 of 7, while MIN has given up at least 5 in 6 of 7. The Blue Jays have also scored at least 4 against the Twins in 12 of the last 16 meetings. Only Catcher Rod Barajas doesn't have a hit against Slowey among the Jays in the lineup tonight. Wells, Snider & Lind all have 3 hits against him in 6 or less ABs. Rios, Wells & Snider all have more than 2 RBI vs. Slowey. Slowey had a rought start in his 1st game, giving up 5 ER in 6 IP to Seattle. If they can get into the bullpen relatively early (6th), they should have a chance for more runs as the Twins' pen has yielded 7 runs in their last 3 games & has allowed at least one run in 5 of 6 games so far. So, I'm giving it a whirl because I just wouldn't respect myself in the morning if I didn't.Comment -
Odelay Lyle Overbay! Doneski in the 6th.
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I was on your Phillies pick
hope to catch your play tomorrow
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Had no idea you posted another play.....thought you were only doing 2-3. Bummed I missed it. Keep them coming your on FIRE
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