Play #42: Pirates/Brewers UNDER 8.5 (-125)
Ian Snell vs. Yovani Gallardo. Both pitchers have steadied themselves after a lone rocky start earlier in the season. Snell has allowed 3 ER or less in his last 3 starts and sports a 4-1 mark vs. MIL with a 3.60 ERA. His numbers at Miller Park though are not great, 6.75 ERA (1-1 record). It's been three years though since he pitched there, so that stat might not tell much. What is telling is that since 2006, Snell's totals in games against the Brewers are 7,7,9,8,5. All but one going UNDER today's number. Gallardo has been stellar in his last two starts, just 2 ER in 15 IP and his last outing was a complete game win. Outside of his poor start where he allowed 7 ER, Gallardo has allowed 2 ER or less in his other three starts. All three ending with totals of 7 or less. In fact, going back to last season - the total has hit UNDER in 13 of his past 16 starts. He is also solid vs. PIT with a 2-1 record and a 2.75 ERA. Each of his 4 starts vs. the Pirates has landed a low number for the total that would beat today's number. The key for me is getting both of these starters into the late portions of the game - 7th inning or better. That would eliminate the bullpens from screwing around too much although both have been decent, but not great. Big factor in this is Snell. He needs to be on from the first pitch. When his pitch count gets high early, good things usually do not follow.
Ian Snell vs. Yovani Gallardo. Both pitchers have steadied themselves after a lone rocky start earlier in the season. Snell has allowed 3 ER or less in his last 3 starts and sports a 4-1 mark vs. MIL with a 3.60 ERA. His numbers at Miller Park though are not great, 6.75 ERA (1-1 record). It's been three years though since he pitched there, so that stat might not tell much. What is telling is that since 2006, Snell's totals in games against the Brewers are 7,7,9,8,5. All but one going UNDER today's number. Gallardo has been stellar in his last two starts, just 2 ER in 15 IP and his last outing was a complete game win. Outside of his poor start where he allowed 7 ER, Gallardo has allowed 2 ER or less in his other three starts. All three ending with totals of 7 or less. In fact, going back to last season - the total has hit UNDER in 13 of his past 16 starts. He is also solid vs. PIT with a 2-1 record and a 2.75 ERA. Each of his 4 starts vs. the Pirates has landed a low number for the total that would beat today's number. The key for me is getting both of these starters into the late portions of the game - 7th inning or better. That would eliminate the bullpens from screwing around too much although both have been decent, but not great. Big factor in this is Snell. He needs to be on from the first pitch. When his pitch count gets high early, good things usually do not follow.