EP36's: Chase For 60

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #141
    Play #42: Pirates/Brewers UNDER 8.5 (-125)
    Ian Snell vs. Yovani Gallardo. Both pitchers have steadied themselves after a lone rocky start earlier in the season. Snell has allowed 3 ER or less in his last 3 starts and sports a 4-1 mark vs. MIL with a 3.60 ERA. His numbers at Miller Park though are not great, 6.75 ERA (1-1 record). It's been three years though since he pitched there, so that stat might not tell much. What is telling is that since 2006, Snell's totals in games against the Brewers are 7,7,9,8,5. All but one going UNDER today's number. Gallardo has been stellar in his last two starts, just 2 ER in 15 IP and his last outing was a complete game win. Outside of his poor start where he allowed 7 ER, Gallardo has allowed 2 ER or less in his other three starts. All three ending with totals of 7 or less. In fact, going back to last season - the total has hit UNDER in 13 of his past 16 starts. He is also solid vs. PIT with a 2-1 record and a 2.75 ERA. Each of his 4 starts vs. the Pirates has landed a low number for the total that would beat today's number. The key for me is getting both of these starters into the late portions of the game - 7th inning or better. That would eliminate the bullpens from screwing around too much although both have been decent, but not great. Big factor in this is Snell. He needs to be on from the first pitch. When his pitch count gets high early, good things usually do not follow.
    Comment
    • waco66
      SBR MVP
      • 04-14-09
      • 1645

      #142
      woohoo nice pick
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #143
        Cardinals cash on the series win!


        Red Sox still alive for a possible series win, tied at 5 in the 9th.
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #144
          Play #43: Rangers -120
          Dallas Braden vs. Vicente Padilla. The lefty Braden is 0-2 in 6 career appearances vs. TEX with a 5.12 ERA. He has been very solid though to start off 2009, giving up 3 ER or less in every start. On the road though, he has suffered a severe lack of run support. Despite holding two opponents to a total of four runs, OAK lost 1-0 and 3-0. In 2008, Braden lost to the Rangers 6-1 @ OAK, giving up 5 ER but he did beat them in 2007 @ TEX, giving up 3 runs in 5 IP of a 9-7 A's win. Texas is 3-1 in Padilla's starts this year, despite his lofty ERA of 8.27. He is 5-1 lifetime vs. OAK with a 4.55 ERA and was 2-0 in three starts vs. them in 2008. Padilla fared very well in day starts in 2008 with a 4-1 mark in 7 starts and an ERA of 4.01. His one matinee this year was a 5 ER performance vs. KC, but the Rangers pulled him off the hook with a 6-5 win. Look to the lineup for a key to see if Padilla might have an extra advantage - Left-handed hitters are hitting .390 while right-handers are hitting .226 off him so far this season. The A's haven't had a great time of it in Texas lately, 3-10 in their last 13 here. Oakland is off to a 3-6 road start this year, while the Rangers are 6-4 at home and come in hot, having won 4 of 5. They are also rolling lefties to the tune of .344 at home and .355 in their last 10.
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #145
            With a month in the books as of today (no more for me today), here's how the breakdown went for April:

            Sides (Single Games): 7-5
            Series: 5-1-1
            Game Totals: 11-5-1
            Team Totals: 4-2
            ---------------------
            Grand Total: 27-13-2 (+24.99 units)
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #146
              Play #44: [SERIES] White Sox -110 (Rangers)
              The pitching match-ups for this series: Buehrle vs. Feldman, Contreras vs. McCarthy & Danks vs. Harrison. Solid pitching edge to the ChiSox in Game 1 with Buehrle holding a 10-3 lifetime mark vs. TEX. That includes a 3-1 record in 5 starts at Rangers Ballpark with a solid 3.45 ERA. Feldman did hold down this White Sox team last year in his lone start against them, giving up just 1 ER in 6 IP @ Chicago. His first start at Baltimore this season was solid as well, 1 ER in 5 IP. The advantage though is that he started in the bullpen, so his arm strength probably won't get him much past the 5th or 6th, which means lots of meaty team vs. the TEX bullpen and their 6.24 ERA. Rangers have lost 3 of their last 4 contests vs. lefty starters. Chicago is also 10-3 in Buehrle's last 13 starts against Texas, while the Rangers are 3-8 in Feldman's last 11 starts. The middle game is a crap shoot. Contreras is awful. 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and even worse vs. TEX at 1-1 with an 8.69 ERA. He was bombed for 7 ER vs. this club back in July 2008. McCarthy has been steady, giving up no more than 4 ER in any of this 4 starts, but he's also not getting past the 6th inning in any of them. That's why opponents wound up scoring more than 7 runs three times in his starts, bullpen, bullpen, bullpen. He's never faced the Pale Hose. Game 3 gives the Sox an edge too with Danks on the hill. The former Ranger is 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA, most of that coming from a faulty outing vs. SEA where he gave up 5 ER in less than 5 IP. Prior to that, Danks had pitched 19 innings and given up just two runs. He is 1-1 vs. TEX with a 4.05 ERA. Both starts were @ Texas. Matt Harrison pitches for Texas and he has been flat out awful. He is 1-2 with a 7.89 ERA and got rocked by the Sox last year, 5 ER in 2.2 IP. The key for me is the White Sox must win the opener with Buehrle out there. If they can get that done, then I feel confident they can at the least split Games 2 & 3 to win the series.
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #147
                Play #45: Padres/Dodgers OVER 8 (-115)
                The Jake Peavy name is probably what is keeping this total as low as it is, although in the past, you'd expect it to be more like 7-7.5. However, something stinks in the state of Peavy this year. He is 2-3 with a 5.74 ERA and has given up at least 3 ER in every start this season. In his last 8 games at Dodger Stadium, the OVER has hit 7 of 8. All three of his 2008 starts (2 road/1 home) went over against LA. Kershaw has also been rocky of late after a fast start, he's been hit hard in his last two starts (both roadies) for 15 ER in 9 IP. Kershaw was solid in his first game vs. SD this year, 5 IP and 1 ER. But that has obviously been an issue, pitch count and getting deep into games. SD's bullpen has been bending over backwards to give up runs on the road, 6.25 ERA. Pads have hit the OVER in 7 of 11 on the road and the Dodgers in 5 of 7 at home. LA is crushing righties to the tune of .388 at Dodger Stadium and haven't scored less than 4 runs in 7 straight games and 9 of 10 overall. SD has been doing well on their current road trip, scoring at least 4 runs in all 4 games.
                Comment
                • EaglesPhan36
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 12-06-06
                  • 71662

                  #148
                  Play #46: Royals/Twins UNDER 9 (+100)
                  Sidney Ponson vs. Kevin Slowey. Ponson hasn't been as bad as everyone seems to think. Outside of a horrid outing at Cleveland, El Sid has given up 4 ER or less in his other four starts. Not coincidentally, all those totals fell at 9 or below (3/4 UNDERs on the year for Ponson). He has had a vast amount of success vs. MIN in his career with an 11-3 record and a 2.69 ERA. While the vast amount of that may be contributed to yester-year, Ponson did acquit himself nicely in two starts @ MIN last year, 4 ER in 7.2 IP and 3 ER in 5.2 IP. Slowey has begun to turn his season around after a dismal beginning. His last two starts: 15 IP, 3 ER. Career vs. KC: 3-0, 2.16 ERA in 4 starts. All three of Slowey's 2008 appearances vs. KC resulted in totals UNDER tonight's number. Dating back to 2008, 7 of 8 games at Minnesota in this series have fallen at totals of 9 runs or less. KC has hit UNDERs in 6 of 9 on the road and MIN in 5 of their last 6. Key element as usual is getting these starters deep into the game. At least the 6th or 7th to leave out the pens. Surprisingly, KC's has been better than Minnesota's.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #149
                    Looks like a couple of big stinky losers here today. On the bright side, the White Sox beat the Rangers so that series bet just needs one win in two games.
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #150
                      Play #47: Cardinals/Nationals UNDER 10 (-105)
                      Joel Pineiro vs. Shairon Martis. Little inside info to start out with if you don't dig around. Albert Pujols is getting today off. So right off the bat, the St.Louis lineup loses it's big thunder. This is his first day off I believe, so it's hard to gauge exactly how this will effect the Cards - but obviously, it should help the Nationals pitching staff. Martis got KO'ed by the Phillies in the 5th in his last start, giving up 7 ER. However, at Nationals Park this year in 2 starts, he's been credible. 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA in 12.1 IP against the Phils & Braves. Both those contests finished at 10 runs or lower. Key for Martis is to watch the walks. Pineiro meanwhile has been buzzing along at 4-0 with a 3.76 ERA. He's been getting more publicity for his lack of strikeouts that his solid pitching. He has just 6 Ks in 26+ IP, but has three starts with 2 ER or less and all four starts have gone 6+ IP. All of his starts giving up 2 ER or less have finished UNDER the total. He is 1-2 vs. WAS in 4 starts with a 3.08 ERA. The Nats have gone 6 straight at home, scoring 4 runs or less. WAS has also hit UNDER in 7 of their last 10. The key element for me here is Martis making it through 6 IP. THe longer the Nats bullpen stays out of the picture, the better. Same with STL, although their pen has been pitching better of late. Weather could delay the start of this game slightly, but there appears to be a good window to get this game in after that.
                      Comment
                      • GGPLAYER
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-26-09
                        • 2981

                        #151
                        Nice call on this one. Keep'em coming.
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #152
                          Play #48: Red Sox/Rays OVER 9 (-115)
                          Predicating most of this play on the fact that Brad Penny just isn't pitching well right now. He's given up at least 3 ER in every start and all four of his 2009 starts have hit totals of at least 9 runs. 2 of the 4 starts, he has yielded 7 runs & 8 runs. Shields lifetime mark vs. BOS is pedestrian, 2-5 with a 5.59 ERA. However, a lot of that damage has come at Fenway. His lone start vs. BOS this season was at Fenway, 5 ER in 5.1 IP. Tampa bats have been white hot, scoring 25 runs in the 1st 3 games of this series. They may do most of the damage themselves, so the Red Sox need to just make a positive dent into Shields and I think this has a shot.

                          And the bonus on all of this, Shields is on my fantasy team and I need a win big time ... so he'll likely lay an egg.
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #153
                            Piss poor week last week. Gotta get focused again in baseball.

                            Play #49: Angels -115
                            Joe Saunders vs. Brett Anderson. Should be a good spot for the Halos here. #1, they put their best pitcher on the mound. Saunders has a 6-2 career mark vs. OAK and has been solid at McAfee Coliseum (2-0, 1.32 ERA) in 2 starts. Oakland has been struggling against lefties all season, hitting just .209 against them. #2, the A's come back home after the marathon 15 inning game vs. SEA on Sunday. Their bullpen was used up twice in that series with their starters in Games 1 & 3 going just 8 IP combined. Bring in a well rested Angels team that has been rained out since Saturday and I think there is a recipe for success tonight. Saunders also has already shut this team out, 3-0 early in the season. He will need to bounce back from a couple sub-par efforts though, but this looks like the right team and time to do it.
                            Comment
                            • waco66
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-14-09
                              • 1645

                              #154
                              lets get it
                              Comment
                              • MeloX
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 03-24-09
                                • 11

                                #155
                                WOOHOO i finally get one of your plays
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #156
                                  Play #50: Orioles/Rays UNDER 9 (-105)
                                  Koji Uehara vs. Matt Garza. Uehara has quietly been one of the more consistent pitchers in the league. Four of his five starts have been quality (3 ER or less). In three straight, the game has gone UNDER the total with no more than 9 runs coming home in those games. Garza has been fantastic against the O's in his career 5-0 in 6 starts with a 2.80 ERA. He got back on track in a big way in his last game, flirting with that perfect game vs. BOS. In all, he has 3 superb starts, one mediocre start & a clunker. Those 3 starts that rate as superb were all 2 ER or less. Three of his five starts have hit below today's number. Both Garza's starts vs. BAL in 2009 fell well below today's total. Both bullpens have been better in their last 10, but still have some problems - that makes the key element once again getting these starters into the 6th and 7th innings. If that happens, this has a shot.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #157
                                    Play #51: Angels/A's UNDER 9 (-105)
                                    Shane Loux vs. Dallas Braden. Loux has had 3 solid starts in 4 tries. Not coincidentally, the UNDER is 3 for 4 so far with him on the mound. In those three good starts, he's yielded less than 3 ER per start and made it into the 5th inning each team - a HUGE key for tonight. Loux must eat innings to avoid that porous Angels' pen. Braden has been one of the quality lefties early on this season. He's seen UNDERs hit in 4 of his 5 starts and he's yet to give up more than 3 ER in any of those starts. The 3 coming in a 3-0 loss at Anaheim to these Angels. Overall, Braden is 1-1 with a 2.86 ERA in 3 starts against LAA. Braden would do well to get deeper into games as he's barely gotten through 5 IP in his last two. The A's bullpen has been solid, but they were worked early last night when Anderson got booted in the 5th. The UNDER has hit in 67% of the last 15 meetings between these two clubs in Oakland.
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #158
                                      Tigers/White Sox UNDER 9 (-115)
                                      CANCELLED PLAY DUE TO WEATHER FORECAST
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #159
                                        Play #52: Blue Jays/Angels OVER 9 (-105)
                                        Roy Halladay vs. Anthony Ortega. The Halladay name once again would push most people to look to the under, but the OVER has cashed in 5 of his 6 starts this season. Halladay also has a 6.35 ERA at Angels Stadium. Ortega's starts are 2 for 2 in hitting the OVER as well. The splits are in favor of an OVER with the Jays hitting the OVER in 11 of 14 road contests this season. The Angels have cashed the OVER 75% of their home games, 8 of 12 in 2009. The Angels pen remains a leaking entity that could help push this one past the posted total. They have an ERA of 6.51 in their last 10 and are still well above 7 on the season. The Jays have given Halladay a bevy of run support this year, over 7 runs per game.
                                        Comment
                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-06-06
                                          • 71662

                                          #160
                                          Cancelling Sox-Tigers wager. Weather forecast looks like it might rain a lot, so if the game gets in, not satisfied that the starters will be involved enough to merit a wager on that one.
                                          Comment
                                          • waco66
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-14-09
                                            • 1645

                                            #161
                                            Go jays!
                                            Comment
                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-06-06
                                              • 71662

                                              #162
                                              Play #53: Braves/Marlins OVER 4.5 1st 5 Innings (-115)
                                              Jurjjens vs. Sanchez. Most of this is based on Sanchez' recent struggles where he has been tomahawked in the 1st inning for 9 runs in his last two starts. He has also struggled in two day starts with a 7.20 ERA, 8 ER in 10 IP. In his last 4 starts, at least 4 runs have been scored in the 1st 5 innings. That includes 5 runs when he faced the Braves earlier in the season with the Marlins scoring 3 and Sanchez yielding 2. Jurjjens has been nearly untouchable this season, yet he has given up more than half his ERs this season in the 1st couple of innings of his starts. So if you get to him, you get to him early. In 2008, the Marlins jumped on him for 6 ER in 3 IP & 5 ER in 4 IP in two home starts. In the 4 meetings between these two teams this season, there have been 5 or more runs scored in the 1st 5 in 3 of those 4.
                                              Comment
                                              • GGPLAYER
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-26-09
                                                • 2981

                                                #163
                                                4-1 I also had Atl ML 1st 5 innings. Now I can turn loose and lose it all on the night games! Thanks for the winning play!
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #164
                                                  Took 'em until the 5th to get it done, but it got done and that's all that counts, right?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                    • 71662

                                                    #165
                                                    Play #54: [SERIES] Blue Jays -115 (Athletics)
                                                    Pitching match-ups

                                                    G1: Richmond vs. Outman
                                                    G2: Tallet vs. Gallagher
                                                    G3: Cecil vs. Braden

                                                    Game 1 is a must-win in this series for the Blue Jays as the pitching match-up falls heavy in their favor. The Jays have won all five of Scott Richmond's starts this season and he's pitched very well. 3 ER or less in each start and 2 ER or less in the last 4. Outman (lefty) for Oakland has bounced back & forth from the bullpen to the rotation. His last start was solid vs. SEA (6 IP/2 ER), but he pitched vs. TOR early in the season and the Jays beat him up for 5 runs, 3 earned. TOR has been killing lefties to the tune of .365 on the road & .318 overall. Game 2 is the swing game here as it could probably go either way. Tallet has actually been solid for the Blue Jays in 4 starts outside of his 10 ER debacle @ Kansas City. Otherwise, the three other starts have yielded 3 ER or less. Tallet being a lefty helps as well with Oakland hitting under .200 against lefties at home. Game 3 would probably favor Oakland as Braden has been very solid (3-3 2.50 ERA). He was on the wrong end of a 1-0 loss to Toronto in April. Cecil for TOR has one start, a good one (6 IP/1 ER) in a loss to Cleveland. Toronto has taken 8 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams, including winning 2 of 3 in Toronto this season.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                      • 71662

                                                      #166
                                                      Play #55: Cardinals/Reds UNDER 8.5 (-105)
                                                      Joel Pineiro vs. Johnny Cueto. 5 starts for each pitcher and the UNDER has hit in 4 of 5 for both. Pineiro has nailed three straight UNDERs and has a respectable 4.05 ERA at Great American Ballpark. He's yielded 2 ER or less in 4 of his 5 starts. Cueto has been nearly untouchable since his 1st start. Just 2 ER in his last 26.2 IP. He doesn't get much run support either, which helps the cause here. The Reds have scored just 13 runs in his 5 starts. The UNDER has hit over 70% in his last 22 starts dating back to 2008. Both pitchers have really locked it down in night starts. Pineiro with a 2.53 ERA and Cueto with a ridonkulous 0.89 ERA. Both pens have been solid in their last 10. STL with a 2.28 ERA and CIN with a 3.34 ERA. Pineiro has gotten at least into the 7th inning in 4 of his 5 starts and Cueto has gone at least 7 in three straight, which could make the bullpens a lesser part of the equation. STL has cashed the UNDER in 7 of their last 10, 8 of them would beat tonight's number. Cincy will also likely be down some key elements on offense with Brandon Phillips & Joey Votto doubtful with the flu.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #167
                                                        Play #56: Blue Jays -110
                                                        Tallet vs. Gallagher. Tallet has made 4 starts for Toronto and given up less than 3 ER in 3 of them. That includes a 5.1 IP, 1 ER performance against Oakland back in April. The Blue Jays could use a solid 6 innings or more from Tallet to feel good about their chances today. The A's have flat out stunk vs. lefties this season, barely hitting over .200 agains them on the season & below .200 at home. Gallagher is making his first Oakland start this season after spending the first month plus in the bullpen. Gallagher got beat up a little by the Jays in 2008 (8 IP/7 ER in two starts). Stamina will probably be an issue again as Gallagher tries to stretch it out. Toronto must hit with runners in scoring position if they are to break their two game losing skid. They were just 1 for 11 with RISP last night.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #168
                                                          Play #57: Mariners/Twins OVER 8 (-105)
                                                          Erik Bedard vs. Nick Blackburn. This is a repeat of the April 7th game that saw Minnesota win 6-5. Surprisingly, Bedard's starts have trended to the OVER 67% of the time (4/6). Most of that is due to poor bullpen support as he hasn't yielded more than 3 ER in a game this season. He does sport a poor record vs. MIN (0-5, 4.91 ERA). Blackburn has been mostly bad this season, giving up 4 runs or more in 4 of 6 starts. Against Seattle, he's gone 11 IP, getting popped for 7 ER. OVER has hit a ridiculous 20 of the last 27 times these two teams have met, including 4 of 6 in 2009. Minny home games have cashed the OVER 65% (13/19) and 6 straight overall.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-06-06
                                                            • 71662

                                                            #169
                                                            Much better week last week. Nothing at all today with the light slate jumps out and never make a bet just to make a bet on POS games! Gonna focus on NBA props and pick up with baseball on Tuesday.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • gambit718
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 02-04-09
                                                              • 443

                                                              #170
                                                              Any feelings on the SFG/WAS OVER 8.5?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-06-06
                                                                • 71662

                                                                #171
                                                                Unit at Home/Giants at home generally a better UNDER bet, but Cabrera almost voids that by himself. All of Cabrera's starts have gone double digit totals. Like I said for me today, most of the games have points to be made on both sides. Push comes to shove, I'd go OVER because I don't trust Cabrera to limit anyone, even the Giants. And of course, the Nats pen sucks & it's likely in use by inning 5 or 6.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                                  • 71662

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Play #58: Rays/Orioles UNDER 10.5 (-115)
                                                                  Sonnanstine vs. Hendrickson. Sonnanstine's starts are a perfect 6-0 in favor of the UNDER in 2009. That includes a 5-4 Rays loss @ Baltimore in April. In fact, that was the highest total in any of the righty's starts this season. His road numbers are poor (0-3, 6.95 ERA) - yet they are averaging only 7.5 runs per game due to a lack of run support. Sonnanstine has done well against the Yankees & Red Sox in back-2-back performances, 2 ER against each with 13 IP. Hendrickson is trash, let's just get that out of the way. His best start though was against TB in April, 1 ER in 5.1 IP. His home starts are averaging just over 8 runs per game. The Orioles have cashed the UNDER in 6 of their last 10 and 4 of 5 on this homestand. Rays cash the UNDER 60% of their road games in 2009. Key element here is Sonnanstine for me. He must give a solid performance and get into the 6th/7th inning. Hendrickson's not going to give more than 5 IP, so that means the leaky Baltimore pen comes into play. If Hendrickson can at least get 5, that's a big plus as he's only made it that long twice this year.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Play #59: [SERIES] Rangers -125 (Seattle)
                                                                    Pitching Match-Ups

                                                                    G1: (L) Jason Vargas vs. (R) Scott Feldman
                                                                    G2: (L) Jarrod Washburn vs. (R) Brandon McCarthy
                                                                    G3: (R) Felix Hernandez vs. (R) Matt Harrison


                                                                    Solid spot to take the Rangers here as you have two teams going in opposite directions. Mariners have lost 8 of 10, while the Rangers have won 7 of 10 and are set to get Josh Hamilton & Michael Young both back in the lineup this series. Seattle has struggled typically @ Texas with a 16-37 record there in the last 53 games. Game 1 finds Vargas transitioning out of the bullpen for a start against a team that rakes lefties at home (.337 avg). Feldman meanwhile quietly has strung together 3 positive starts in a row where he's gona t least 5 IP and given up 3 ER or less. Rangers are 2-1 in those games. Game 2 finds another lefty for the Rangers to feast on. Washburn has not done well at Texas (2-5, 5.91 ERA). McCarthy is nothing to write home about for the Rangers, but at worst this game is a 50-50 proposition and I'll side with the more consistent offense to get their starter off the hook. Game 3 would seem to favor Seattle, but Felix Hernandez is facing one of his least favorite teams. Felix is 4-9 with a 4.65 ERA in 17 starts. Worse at Texas with a 2-5 record and a 5.60 ERA. He's also been bombed for 11 ER in his last 10 IP, including 6 against Texas at home in a 6-5 loss. Matt Harrison, his opposition, has won three straight starts for Texas and gone 14 IP in his last two without yielding a single run.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • GGPLAYER
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-26-09
                                                                      • 2981

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                                      Play #58: Rays/Orioles UNDER 10.5 (-115)
                                                                      Sonnanstine vs. Hendrickson. Sonnanstine's starts are a perfect 6-0 in favor of the UNDER in 2009. That includes a 5-4 Rays loss @ Baltimore in April. In fact, that was the highest total in any of the righty's starts this season. His road numbers are poor (0-3, 6.95 ERA) - yet they are averaging only 7.5 runs per game due to a lack of run support. Sonnanstine has done well against the Yankees & Red Sox in back-2-back performances, 2 ER against each with 13 IP. Hendrickson is trash, let's just get that out of the way. His best start though was against TB in April, 1 ER in 5.1 IP. His home starts are averaging just over 8 runs per game. The Orioles have cashed the UNDER in 6 of their last 10 and 4 of 5 on this homestand. Rays cash the UNDER 60% of their road games in 2009. Key element here is Sonnanstine for me. He must give a solid performance and get into the 6th/7th inning. Hendrickson's not going to give more than 5 IP, so that means the leaky Baltimore pen comes into play. If Hendrickson can at least get 5, that's a big plus as he's only made it that long twice this year.
                                                                      GL with this one. I got it at 10 and I'm screwed.....there are already 7 runs scored and the 2nd inning is not even over yet! Bases juiced with one out for Balt.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                                        • 71662

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Yeah I grossly over-estimated Sonnanstine's ability to at least be in control until the middle innings. Figured Hendrickson would get hit, although was hoping it would take longer. Oh well, gotta move on. Shitty pick by me.
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