EP36's: Chase For 60

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #101: Braves/Orioles UNDER 10 (-115)
Hanson vs. Berken. The Atlanta phenom got pushed around by a solid MIL lineup in his MLB debut last time out, giving up 6 ER in 6 IP. Now he'll take to the road where there should be less pressure against a BAL lineup that is scuffling. The O's are hitting .168 against righties in their last 10. During that span, Baltimore has scored 3 euns or less 9 times and has not scored more than 4 runs since May 29th. Berken has 3 starts to his credit, one horrific road start and two solid ones at home where he's gone 12 IP, giving up just 3 ER. Overall, BAL game totals have hit 10 or lower in 9 of their last 10, while ATL games have gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8. Both bullpens have steadied lately, but still feature ERAs in the 4s. Getting the starters into the 6th or 7th would be a big help.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #102: [SERIES] Dodgers -110 (Rangers)
Pitching Match-Ups
G1: Kuroda vs. Padilla
G2: Wolf vs. Feldman
G3: Billingsley vs. Holland

Dodgers have the pitching edge in Game 1 as Padilla has struggled at home this season. He's 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Rangers are 3-2 in his home starts, but some of that is directly attributed to them scoring 6 runs per game for him. That could be moot though with the Rangers offense only scoring 4 runs in their last 3 games. Kuroda comes in with two solid starts off the DL, 11 IP, just 2 ER. Game 2 looks like a real toss-up with Wolf 3-1 on the road this season with a 2.58 ERA. Texas has hit just .208 against lefties in their last 10. Dodgers are 6-2 in Wolf's last 8 starts. Feldman has been solid. Rangers had won six straight of his starts before losing his last out against Toronto. Game 3 would give LA an edge with Billingsley going. The righty is 8-3 with a 2.73 ERA. Dodgers are 4-1 in his road starts. Holland has made 3 starts for TEX this season. His last was against Boston where he went just 4 IP and gave up 4 ER. He's got talent, but his inability to get deep into games leads the Rangers to use more bullpen innings when he's on the mound. That should favor LA as well with the Dodgers sporting the superior pen. LA's pen ERA over their last 10 is under 2, while TEX is almost 6 in that same time. Dodgers are also 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Big key is the opener. If LA gets it done tonight, then they shouldn't have a problem getting 1 of the last 2.

[Sawyer]

GL Eaglesphan! Nice write-ups!

If Dodgers lost first game, I'll chase visitors in game2 and game3. BOL Mate!

[EaglesPhan36]

Poor performance by LA tonight. Probably won't hedge tomorrow with TEX unless the price drops. Rangers -130 favorites right now. Probably let it play out and hope to make it to Sunday with a shot to win the series with Billingsley on the hill. Snuck in the under tonight in Baltimore. That was a harrowing adventure!

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #103: [NCAA] Arkansas/CS-Fullerton OVER 11 (+105)
Arkansas sports the 2nd worst team ERA of the 8 teams in Omaha at 4.56. The Hogs are also just one of two teams at the CWS to have scored less than 400 runs this season, Texas being the other. Still, the offense has ignited at the right time once this team got to the Regionals. In the five game since, they've put 54 runs on the board. CSF brings a 3.36 team ERA to Omaha and a unique bunting/base stealing type of offense that has wreaked havoc on the opposition. The Titans have scored 481 runs this season, an average of right about 8 runs per game. In the Regionals/Super Regionals, they've amped that up by scoring double figures in 4 out of 5 games, 64 runs in all. All five NCAA tournament games have reached today's total or above. CSF is throwing freshmen Noe Ramirez in Game 1. He was 9-1 with a 2.86 ERA. Arkansas counters with Dallas Keuchel, 7-3 with a 4.04 ERA. It will be interesting to see how CSF's young pitchers respond on the big stage. This team is very young, but talented. Best chance for the Razorbacks to put up runs could be early on while jitters play a role for Ramirez today. If you go back in the last 10 games for Fullerton, they're only scored less than 7 runs in one game. I think they'll need to do the bulk of the damage today unless their pitchers get unnerved and allow Arkansas to put up a crooked number early.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #104: [NCAA] LSU to Win CWS (+580)
The Tigers sport the best offense in Omaha and have experience on their side having been to the CWS last season. The big X factor here for LSU is offensive consistency. Despite scoring 524 runs this season, there have been moments when the big hits did not look as if they would come. Against Southern, LSU trailed 2-1 before exploding late for a 10-2 win and they won a nail biter in the Regionals over Baylor 3-2. Still with Ranaudo & Coleman forming their 1-2 pitching punch and with more collective experience than the other contenders in their bracket (Fullerton,Virginia,Arkansas), LSU has a great shot to get to the Championship Series at a price.

Play #105: [NCAA] Arizona State to Win CWS (+480)
I think the 2nd bracket comes down to Arizona State or North Carolina. Southern Miss is a good story and I expect they will win a game before going home because of their prolific offense, but their pitching will get them in the end. Likewise, Texas has deficiences with the worst offense of the remaining 8 teams. Their solid pitching likely keeps them around for more than 2 games, but I think their hit or miss offense will have issues against ASU's top notch starters as well as Carolina's. ASU may have the best 1-2 tandem pitching with Stephen Leake (16-1, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Spence (9-1, 2.33 ERA). Their offense is steady and has scored 491 runs this season which is on par with every team not named LSU in Omaha. The big issue for ASU will be tight ballgames. They do not have a "lock down" close as they use Jordan Swaggerty and Mitchell Lambson to close out games. Still, if the starters pitch to their capabilities and the big bats of Kipnis and Ramirez continue to deliver, the Sun Devils should have a good shot to take a spot in the Championship Series.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #106: Nationals/Rays UNDER 10.5 (-115)
Zimmerman vs. Sonnanstine. Zimmerman is the big X factor here as he's been mostly horrible on the road this season. 1-1 with a 6.85 ERA. He also enters this game with some extra rest due to elbow fatigue, so it's really a guess as to what he can bring today. The way I look at it is he's been so bad on the road, 5 ER or more in 3 of his 4 roadies that maybe the rest helps. He is coming in off his best performance in months back on June 4th vs. SF. He went 6 IP and gave up just 2 ER. Sonnanstine has been much better at Tropicana Field in his short career. In 2009, 3 of his 4 starts there have hit UNDER. Dating back to June 2009, in 14 home starts, the total has ended up at 10 or less in 11 of those starts. The Nats have gone UNDER in 9 straight and are having issues scoring, going over 3 runs just twice in the last 10. TB has cashed the UNDER in 7 of their last 10 at home. Both bullpens have been good in their last 10. WAS sporting a 2.52 ERA and TB, 1.88. Both pens were used for 3+ innings yesterday and the Rays starters have gone an average of just over 4 IP in their last 3. That means Sonnanstine getting deep into the game is a huge key for them to avoid getting into what could be a slightly fatigued bullpen early. Same goes for the Nats as the more IP Zimmerman can give them, the better this UNDER's chances would be.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated new pick for Play #106 for anyone who gives a flying fart.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #107: Mariners/Rockies UNDER 10.5 (-120)
Vargas vs. Hammel. Vargas has been stellar in each of his 6 starts for SEA. 3 ER or less in each and totals falling at 8 or lower in each game. On the road, the lefty is 1-1 with a 2.95 ERA. Vargas had one horrific start at Coors Field in 2007, but he is clearly a different pitcher at this stage of his career. He will be tested by a hot Rockies team that is hitting .307 vs. lefties at home. Hammel has been worse at home this season, but solid during a pair of day starts. His day numbers ... 1-1 with a 0.93 ERA. 19 IP during matinee appearances with just 2 ER. His last two starts were solid, 2 ER in each in 13 IP. SEA has gone UNDER 10 runs in each of their 5 games on this road trip, while COL has gone UNDER that number in 7 straight. The UNDER is also cashing well in Interleague home games for the Rockies, hitting in 7 of the last 9. SEA has cashed UNDERs in 20 of their last 28 overall.

[Rixsaw]

Love the under. good luck.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #108: [NCAA] Southern Miss/Texas OVER 10 (-110)
It's a clash of brute force offense against the #2 overall pitching staff ERA-wise in D1 ball when Southern Miss and Texas meet tonight in Omaha. The Golden Eagles have seemed unphased by the names on the other jerseys during their surprise run to the CWS. This team has now scored at least 7 runs in 7 straight games and has game totals above today's number in all 6 of their NCAA games this post season. While UT does pose a different level of pitching, Southern Miss still beat up Florida (#21 ERA) for 16 runs in their shocking sweep of the Super Regional. Texas will get to face a mediocre pitching staff for Southern Miss with a team ERA of 5.01 on the season, ranking them 72nd in the country and worst of the 8 teams in Omaha. Of their 6 NCAA games, the Golden Eagles have been touched for at least 6 runs in 5 of those games. That should be helpful to a Longhorns offense that gets stuck in neutral at times. Texas scored 18 runs vs. TCU in the Super Regional, exploding for 10 runs in the opener and then struggling to score in the next two. Todd McInnis gets the nod for Southern Miss. He's 9-6 with a 3.61 ERA. Don't find UT's starter listed, but picking from the trio of Ruffin, Green or Workman all gets you a pitcher with around a 3 ERA. Southern Miss played a small ball style team when they visited CS-Fullerton during the season. They got smoked in a three game series, giving up 37 runs. Don't expect Texas to score that much, but the Horns should be able to get some runs on the board and as good as Texas' staff is, this is an inexperienced bunch at the CWS level. Southern Miss' big boppers will score some.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sticking with the NCAA play. Rain looks as if it will not be a big factor in the night cap.

[spal2811]

eagles any nba prop leans tonight?

[EaglesPhan36]

Didnt do any homework on NBA.

[GGPLAYER]

Anything for today's CWS action? Your doing amazing so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #109: Virginia/CS-Fullerton UNDER 10.5 (-110)
First elimination game of the CWS today. We'll see how this goes, I had thoughts on this game going either way of the total, but here's what I'm looking at. You've got the #3 (UVA) and #4 (CSF) Team ERAs in college baseball in this one. Didn't seem to matter much in their openers though as UVA gave up 9 to LSU and Fullerton surrendered 10 to Arkansas. CSF did start the frosh in Game 1 though, so that I think has to be taken into account. UVA would have to be more concerned as their best pitcher did not fare well in Game 1. CSF goes with their ace today, Daniel Renken. He is 11-2 with a 2.36 ERA and has gone 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in the NCAAs. Virginia counters with Robert Morey. He is 3-0 with a 3.11 ERA, 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA in the NCAAs. He's only made 8 starts this season in all, so there's a definite risk factor with him today. In his last game vs. Ole Miss, Morey survived 5 IP despite walking 5 batters. Do that against Fullerton and their "pressure ball" style and the runs are going to start crossing the plate. His first start in the NCAAs though was a dominant shut out for 6 IP against San Diego State and phenom, Stephen Strasburg. While the pitching might get a lot of attention, don't forget these are two teams that can score as well. Virginia is 23rd in the country with 492 runs scored, although that is somewhat misleading I think. The Cavaliers are averaging only about 4.5 runs per contest in the post season. CSF meanwhile comes in tied for 29th with 481 runs scored. The Titans have been much more consistent in putting runs on the board, having scored at least 6 runs in each of their 6 NCAA games to this point. Dating back to the regular season, that number is 8 straight. Their game totals have also surpassed today's number in 7 straight. Saw the numbers today, 12.5 runs per game so far in this year's CWS. Three of the four games have gone OVER so far. I don't expect Virginia to crack Renken for much today, although if the top of their order can get get on base unlike the LSU game, the Cavs could surprise with some runs. Their top of the order went 3 for 21 vs. LSU in Game 1 with 11 men left on base. The key for Fullerton is to exercise patience I think against Virginia starter Morey. I think the Titans need a fast start today as they are accustomed to taking early leads from their opponents and then continuing their relentless offensive attack with steals, sac bunts and key hits. They do that and Renken can shut down UVA and this game is over early. You've also got two of the Top 25 fielding teams which should help out here. The key to me is Morey. If he pitches like he did against SD State, then the UNDER will have a chance. Virginia's bullpen had been pretty clutch up until LSU beat them up for 6 runs. So hopefully they recover if needed today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Guess I shoulda stuck with the over. Flip flopping is no way to pick a game.

[ZBOIZ]

Man this game is going crazy I also have the UNDER. Cal State pitcher ERA is at 2. and has a 7-0 record and on the day I decide to play the total is the day he has his worse outing and look at that a homerun for Fukkerton as I speak but I do have Fullerton for 5 units

[EaglesPhan36]

I had this as an OVER first and talked myself out of it. I figured Fullerton would score, but thought Virginia might have some trouble. Just goes to show over thinking things screws you. Hoping LSU wins tonight to get one step closer to that Championship Series!

[ZBOIZ]

I had this as an OVER first and talked myself out of it. I figured Fullerton would score, but thought Virginia might have some trouble. Just goes to show over thinking things screws you. Hoping LSU wins tonight to get one step closer to that Championship Series!

I like there chances tonight even more than against Virginia.

Actually this just goes to show you the books dont know college baseball that well. LSU should be favored -280 not fullerton.

And I actually 2nd guess myself by taking fullerton I wanted to take Virginia. But I could still be right also we can still be right about the under!!

[ZBOIZ]

Seems as if Fullerton pitcher is finding his groove

[GGPLAYER]

Guess I shoulda stuck with the over. Flip flopping is no way to pick a game.

First bet ever for me on the CWS. Figures they would make it interesting. I'll try not to get nervous till about the 7 inning if they can settle down and put some 0's on the scoreboard.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #110: Angels/Giants Runs+Hits+Errors OVER 27.5 (+105)
Lackey vs. Zito. Lackey by himself is giving up an average of about 13 runs/hits in his past 5 starts, while averaging 6 IP per start. Zito has also given up double figure runs/hits in 3 of his last 6 starts. Zito is averaging just over 6 IP per start as well. That could leave 3 IP for the bullpens. The Angels pen continues to give it up whenever possible, a 6.45 ERA in their last 10. SF has been better with a 2.60 ERA in their last 10 and around 3.30 at home. The big thing here is for the Angels to get to Zito. They are coming off a hot three game home stand vs. SD where they scored 26 runs. If their offense remains hot, this has got a shot. Lackey's inconsistency should give SF a chance for some runs at home where they have been pretty solid.

[GGPLAYER]

I had this as an OVER first and talked myself out of it. I figured Fullerton would score, but thought Virginia might have some trouble. Just goes to show over thinking things screws you. Hoping LSU wins tonight to get one step closer to that Championship Series!

A half inning away from pulling this one off!! SOB! What a day. I had Clev and SF later that night.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #111: Southern Miss/N.Carolina OVER 12 (-110)
Write-up for this got eaten with whatever the issue is with the board. Like the OVER here. Southern Miss' NCAA games have all surpassed this total. UNC should get some opportunities against the righty Ballinger today. Southern Miss has scored at least 6 in all 7 of their NCAA games. North Carolina had scored 50 in their last 5 games before the lefties shut them down vs. ASU. Adam Warren is a senior starting for UNC. He has experience and has pitched very well, but the Golden Eagles bats are as hot as any. Both bullpens gave up some in their openers and could be feeling the pressure late in this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #112: [SERIES] Tigers -105 (Cardinals)
Pitching Match-ups
G1: Verlander vs. Wainright
G2: E.Jackson vs. Wellemeyer
G3: Porcello vs. Piniero

A real dandy pitching match-up to open the series tonight. Verlander has been simply fantastic since getting bombed by the Angels on April 22nd for 7 ER. In the 9 starts since, he's allowed 8 ER in 65.1 IP! Tigers are 7-2 in those starts. Verlander is 2-0 lifetime vs. STL with a 3.86 ERA and he's 4-2 on the road this year where the Tigers have won 5 of his last 6 roadies. Wainright has been solid with a 2-3 mark at home and a 2.74 ERA, but the Cards have dropped 3 of his last 4 home starts and 2 of his last 3 overall. Verlander can really set the tone by keeping the STL bats down and giving the Tigers a chance to scrape out a low scoring win. Game 2 is a solid pitching edge to DET. Edwin Jackson is maybe the best pitcher no one is talking about, 6-3 with a 2.24 ERA. 3-2 with a 1.55 ERA on the road. In his last 10 starts, he's only given up more than 3 ER once. Big problem for him is getting run support. Wellemeyer has had a tough go at home this season, 2-5 with a 5.72 ERA. He's given up 11 ER in his last two starts. Game 2 is close to a toss-up as well with Porcello and Piniero. Porcello though has been better on the road this season than at home. On the road, Porcello is 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA. DET has won 7 of his last 8 starts. Piniero meanwhile has been another tough luck loser despite his 3.99 ERA, the Cards have lost 7 of his last 8 starts with STL scoring just 19 runs in that span. Detroit comes into St.Louis at the end of a road trip through Chicago & Pittsburgh that has seen them go 4-4. STL is back from a 3-3 road trip to Busch Stadium where they went just 2-4 on their last homestand. Both offenses have sputtered a bit, so pitching will be huge in this series. Cards pen has been shaky lately with a 7.86 ERA in their last 10. I think Game 1 is crucial again here if Verlander keeps the Cards' bats scuffling (6 runs in 3 games in Cleveland) and DET can find some timely hitting, would feel great about getting at least a split in Games 2-3. Series should offer some solid hedge opportunities as well by taking the Tigers with Game 2 likely to hang STL as a decent dog and Game 3, a real toss-up.

[ZBOIZ]

Man I knew I should of took this over but I got caught up in the value aspect of this game...

good call on the over

[ZBOIZ]

I'm thinking bout the total tonight as I think it will go under with both teams ACE pitching tonight. Arizona St. pitcher is hell of good

I might just take Arizona St. because I really think Texas is overrated just like I thought Fullerton was overrated

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #113: Pirates +110
Maholm vs. Perkins. Like this spot for the Pirates with Perkins coming off the DL to start for Minnesota. Maholm has been steady all season with the Pirates winning 6 of his 8 road starts, including 4 straight and 4 of his 5 starts overall. Pittsburgh comes in having won a series off DET. Before getting injured, Perkins had been awful in his last 5 starts, giving up at least 4 ER in each and MIN losing 4 of the 5 games. He could come back and pitch more like the guy who started April by allowing just 4 ER in his first 3 starts, but I'll lay the better price and say he at least gives Pittsburgh a shot in this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm thinking bout the total tonight as I think it will go under with both teams ACE pitching tonight. Arizona St. pitcher is hell of good

I might just take Arizona St. because I really think Texas is overrated just like I thought Fullerton was overrated

I can't take ASU at -215 personally. I just hating laying that big chalk and as good as Leake is, say he goes 8 and Ruffin goes 8 and the game is tied when they leave ... it's a toss-up game at that point. This is going to be a close, probably as you said, low scoring ball game and that means anything could tip it just slightly. Both teams needed some help to get runs in their openers, so the UNDER probably is the best play here, but I don't like that low # still even though this one screams out a 4-2, 4-3, 5-2 type of game. I'm just gonna root for ASU to keep them in a good position for my futures bet. I think they need the win more psychologically. Losing with Leake on the mound would be tough.

[ZBOIZ]

I can't take ASU at -215 personally. I just hating laying that big chalk and as good as Leake is, say he goes 8 and Ruffin goes 8 and the game is tied when they leave ... it's a toss-up game at that point. This is going to be a close, probably as you said, low scoring ball game and that means anything could tip it just slightly. Both teams needed some help to get runs in their openers, so the UNDER probably is the best play here, but I don't like that low # still even though this one screams out a 4-2, 4-3, 5-2 type of game. I'm just gonna root for ASU to keep them in a good position for my futures bet. I think they need the win more psychologically. Losing with Leake on the mound would be tough.

There it is!! Thats one of the factors in this game. Also Texas to me is overrated. They are good but not as advertised

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #114: Grand Salami OVER 136 (-105)
This is an experimental play. Trying something out. Looked at the runs scored per game per stadium tonight and that worked out to 143. Estimated the OVER/UNDER/PUSH ratio for tonight in my opinion to be about 6/5/4. The Totals listed right now come out to 142. Since I see the O/U/P as mostly a wash and the numbers projected for stadiums and totals fall above the posted Salami number, gonna go with the OVER and see how it fairs.

The projected OVERs needed IMO: Yankees, Orioles, Phillies, Royals, Padres, Giants

Of the highest scoring stadiums based on current #s: Yankees, Rockies, Phillies, Twins, Red Sox, Rangers. All average double figure runs per game.

I have the Yankees one projected at 10 or over. Rockies around 10. Phillies 9 or more. Twins push at 9. Red Sox push at 10. Rangers Under 9.

[GGPLAYER]

Play #113: Pirates +110
Maholm vs. Perkins. Like this spot for the Pirates with Perkins coming off the DL to start for Minnesota. Maholm has been steady all season with the Pirates winning 6 of his 8 road starts, including 4 straight and 4 of his 5 starts overall. Pittsburgh comes in having won a series off DET. Before getting injured, Perkins had been awful in his last 5 starts, giving up at least 4 ER in each and MIN losing 4 of the 5 games. He could come back and pitch more like the guy who started April by allowing just 4 ER in his first 3 starts, but I'll lay the better price and say he at least gives Pittsburgh a shot in this one.

Like that your on this one too. PiMike also has it as one of his system plays today so I'm feeling good about it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #114: Grand Salami Total VOIDED due to Cubs rainout today. My book's rules state all games must go 9 IP for the bet to stand. Gonna watch and see where the total ends minus this game and any others done in by the weather to see how close it was.

[EaglesPhan36]

Just tracking the Salami with a couple games still having an inning or so left, Salami is at 131 minus the White Sox/Cubs rainout. Would have needed 6 then if things hold up to have gotten the over done.