Damn that's 3 for 3 when Diogee is my co-pilot. Heh.
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Yeah I was watching a show I recorded during the week. Saw the score at 6-1 going into the 7th. Figured maybe it'd get a push. Houston bullpen is awful, although I did expect them to give up some. Gallardo was the real disappointment.Comment -
Play #69: Athletics/Rays UNDER 9 (-115)
Dallas Braden vs. Matt Garza. Braden's numbers as far as totals are ridiculous with the road/day splits that connect to today's game. His road starts are averaging totals of just 5 runs per game. His day starts even less at 4.75 runs in 4 matinee appearances. He did help limit the Rays to just 2 runs when this pitching match-up happened in Oakland back in April (5-2 OAK win). In fact, in his last 2 starts vs. TB (1 in 2008, 1 in 2009) - Braden has yielded just 2 ER in 10.2 IP. The big thing for Braden is being more efficient with his pitches to stay in the game longer. Garza meanwhile has given up just 4 ER over 20+ IP in his last 3 home starts after a rough beginning at The Trop. The Rays bats are really popping right now, so I'm putting some trust in Braden to hold to his form against TB and for Garza to be tough on the A's. This is probably pretty stupid considering that both teams have cashed OVERS in 70% or better of their last 10. Welcome to the Terror Dome.Comment -
im on the underr..
hopefully it cashes=)Comment -
I like it Eagles.......I took the UNDER 28.5 (Total hits, runs, and errors) -115
Best of luck manComment -
You gotta be F-ing kidding me. Two days in a row, the Top of the 9th is going to kill another one. F-ing bullpens have really caught me in the shitter in the last couple weeks.Comment -
horrible 9th, 1st fives might be were its even at shitty odds!
keep up the good work manComment -
Well with the way I have been going in baseball, I had actually started a write-up on the side of the over because that was opposite my original thoughts and as I stated in the write-up ... both teams are on heavy over runs. Still, the starters warranted the under for me in the end & well, bullpens get you now & again. Really the killer was the 8th when Oakland got that run to tie it at 3-3. Up until then I thought the Rays might stretch it out to 4-2 or 5-2 or something heading into the 9th. Oh well. I'm sure this is karma for some of the picks I got right to start out the season.Comment -
Play #70: [SERIES] Rays -115 (Marlins)
Going with the more consistent team here. The pitching match-ups for the most part are toss-ups nearly every game.
G1: Sonnanstine vs. Nolasco
G2: Niemann vs. TBA
G3: Shields vs. J.Johnson
Neither Sonnanstine nor Nolasco is the picture of pitching health right now. Both sport ERAs above 7 on the season. Rays are just 1-4 in Sonnanstine's 4 road starts this season. He is 2-0 though in 3 career starts vs. FLA. Nolasco is 2-0 vs. TB. Interesting stat - he has made 6 straight road starts leading into this game. Niemann in Game 2 has been better on the road than at home. The Rays are 4-1 in his road starts and they've won 5 of his last 6 starts. Game 3 is a total toss-up. Shields and Johnson. Both have good #s vs. the opposition here. In the end, I side with Rays who are 12-8 in May, while the Marlins are sinking at 5-15 this month. TB has also won 7 of the last 8 meetings between the two and three straight series between the two. Fish are also just 3-8 in their last 11 home games.Comment -
Play #71: Rockies/Tigers 1st 5 Innings UNDER 5 (-125)
Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Rick Porcello. Giving this a whirl to see if the bullpens can keep from F-ing me or if I just F myself in the 1st place. Both guys have ERAs under 2 in their last 3 starts. Ubaldo has given up just 6 ER in his last 27 IP. Porcello just 2 ER in his last 18 IP. Both guys get good run support, so one trend or the other will likely end in this one. On this homestand, the Tigers have held their opponents to 3 runs or less in 5 of 6. Colorado is averaging a shade over 4 runs per game on their current 7 game road trip. Both bullpens give it up, but if the starters give some efficient innings with their current form, maybe just maybe.Comment -
Well hey! That 1st 5 thing worked out just fine. FU leaky bullpens!
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Congrats. I played the 5 inning bet as well. Looks like a nice start to your series play as well
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Kudos! Yeah no kidding on the Rays. That's why I liked TB - their offense is so potent and much more consistent than Florida's. Hopefully they can wrap it up on Saturday and spare me the agony of a pitcher's duel on Sunday!Comment -
Play #72: Phillies Team Total OVER 5 (-105)
Phillies have scored at least this many in 6 of their last 8 games and pounded out 4 long balls last night against the Yankees. 57 runs scored on this 8 game road trip for PHI. Pettitte has been giving up runs by the bunches at home this season. In 4 starts, opponents are averaging 6.5 runs per game. He's allowed 4 ER or more in 3 of those home starts. Also, on the road the Phils have scored at least 5 runs when facing a lefty starter in 4 of 5 tries. And in 20 road games, they've scored at least 5 runs in 75% of those games.Comment -
Can't string together wins for shit these days.Comment -
Play #73: Mets/ Red Sox UNDER 10.5 (-105)
Boston has cashed the UNDER in 8 of their last 10 and send Tim Wakefield to the hill today. The knuckle baller has allowed just 4 ER in three home starts at Fenway this season. The Mets counter with Tim Redding who was solid in his season debut against the Dodgers, allowing just 2 runs in 6 IP. NY is also on an UNDER stretch as they've hit that way in 5 of their last 6, the miss being a push on a total of 8. The Mets offense is struggling lately as well with just 14 runs in their last 6 games. Two straight UNDERs here in Boston without Reyes. Red Sox have cooled on this home stand with 20 runs in 5 games, but 13 of those coming in two games combined. Two solid bullpens - even though the Mets are likely without Frankie due to back spasms.Comment -
Play #74: Braves Team Total OVER 4 (-130)
Late action here, so not much of a write-up. Braves hitting .312 vs. lefties in their last 10. Sanchez has a 7.04 ERA against Atlanta in limited action. Braves are scoring almost 6 runs per Vasquez start. I re-upped at a different book this week, so maybe that can get my baseball picks back on track after a horrible week.Comment -
Play #75: Red Sox/Twins OVER 9 (-115)
Lester vs. Blackburn. All four of Lester's road starts have equaled or bettered tonight's number. A lot of it is his own doing with a 6.93 road ERA. He's given up 5 ER or more in three of the road starts. Minnesota is also churning up lefties at home with a .302 average. Blackburn's 4 home starts have gone OVER three times. In all, Minnesota has cashed the OVER in 10 of their last 14 home dates. The Twins have also scored at least 5 runs in 5 straight games. All three of the meetings this year between the Sox & Twinkies have gone OVER.Comment -
I should point out that I cannot get a pick right to save my life in baseball right now. You guys should fade me hard and enjoy the cash flow. I might stick to series bets for next week if I don't find any luck by the end of the week. Funk!Comment -
Feel free to fade me. I am ice cold. Took a beating yesterday. Let's turn it around though
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Here we go. Fade it. Play it. Someone will win!
Play #76: White Sox/Angels UNDER 9 (-120)
Gavin Floyd vs. Jered Weaver. Floyd put a miserable stretch of starts behind him with a dominant 8 IP shutout performance in his last start vs. PIT. Is that the beginning of a turnaround? I hope so. Floyd has too good a stuff to be getting bombed like he did prior to that where he gave up 6 ER or more in three straight. Floyd had a mixed bag vs. LAA in 2 starts in 2008. He gave up 5 ER in 7 IP in one start and went 9 IP, aloowing just 3 ER in the other. Tori Hunter would be a key out tonight. Hunter only has 3 hits vs. Floyd in 12 ABs, but 2 are long balls. Weaver meanwhile has been filthy at home and even filthier vs. CHI in his career. 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA at home in 5 starts, yielding 4 unders and a push. No totals over 9. Against the Pale Hose, lights out, 3-0 in 4 starts with a 0.34 ERA. The UNDER has cashed in 8 of the last 11 meetings in this series and the Angels have cashed UNDERs in 7 of their last 10 home games.Comment -
Play #77: Rays -112
Jeff Niemann vs. David Huff. The Rays have struggled against the Tribe, but I think if the series hadn't unraveled the way it has, there's no way you'd find this price for TB today. Niemann has pitched pretty well without a lot of hoopla for the Rays. TB has won 6 of his last 7 starts and he is 3-1 on the road this season with a 4.11 ERA. The Rays have already crushed Huff once this season, pounding him for 7 ER in less than 4 IP back in Huff's first start on May 17, a 7-5 Rays win. The problem for TB has not been offense. They scored 10 runs and 7 runs in 2 of the 3 games in Cleveland, pitching has been the big issue. Coughing up the 10-0 lead in Game 1 of this series and a 5-0 first inning lead yesterday. TB desperately needs a good start today to rest it's leaky bullpen. Niemann has gone at least 5 IP in his last three starts and will really need to get into the 6th/7th to help out. TB does not play well in Cleveland, but the pitching match-up gives them an edge to start with. They've hit lefties well on the road also at a .310 clip & pounded Jackson yesterday. It's all about getting Niemann deep into the game in my opinion.Comment -
Play #78: Tigers/Orioles UNDER 9 (-120)
Verlander vs. Guthrie. Verlander has gone 6 straight starts without giving up more than 2 ER. He is 3-0 career vs. BAL with a 1.29 ERA. Guthrie has been much better at home this season, going 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA. UNDER has hit in 4 of his 6 home starts. Detroit is on an UNDER run, cashing in 8 of the last 10. Orioles have hit the UNDER in 6 of the last 8. As usual, big help would come from the starters making it deep into the game to avoid the bullpens. Both BPs have been better as of late, ERAs under 4 in their last 10.Comment -
Play #79: Dodgers +132
Stults vs. Dempster. LA is 7-1 in Stults' start this season. They score runs for this guy no matter how he pitches. That's the big key here as the Dodgers have averaged 8 runs per start behind Stults. They've scored 43 runs in his 5 road starts. Dempster is 1-1 in day starts with a 5.21 ERA. Chicago has won 3 of his four home starts despite a 5.25 ERA at Wrigley. Your stupid stat for the day, LA is 12-1 in their last 13 Saturday games.Comment -
You'll be glad to know that I almost played Det/Bal under but ended up passing.
Best of luck on the play.Comment -
LoL @ Diogee. I think your "almost" must have been the factor that got the push.
Play #80: Reds/Brewers OVER 8 (-120)
Owings vs. Gallardo. Owings' starts this season have hit the OVER in 7 of 8. In two starts vs. MIL, he's given up 8 ER in 11 IP. Those two starts both went into double digit totals. Gallardo had his worst start of the season vs. CIN, giving up 7 ER in 5 IP of a 7-6 Cincinnati win. Otherwise, he has beenfairly solid outside of a 6 ER performance at Houston two starts ago. The total in his last three starts have gone over twice. In three of his last starts, the opposition wound up with at least 4 runs on the scoreboard at game's end. I don't expect the Reds to pound Gallardo again, but they do have Bradon Phillips back in the lineup to off-set the loss of Votto. Brew Crew will do most of the offensive work if this total gets past the number today I think.Comment -
Okay. Well I am going to change things up a bit from this point forward. I am losing out on several winning wagers per day here in the last few weeks by not playing games that I mark from seeing the lines for the first time on a given day. I'm going to list all the ones I mark and then bold the ones I like the best.
Any game listed will be a one unit play unless otherwise noted. Still going to keep the plays manageable, no more than 4-5 per day, but I'm tired of watching potential plays win while my actual plays lose. So I'll do this through June and see where I'm at by the end of the month.
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Play #81: Mets -110
Livan Hernandez vs. Ian Snell. Shades of consistency from Livan? WTF. That's where we find the rotund one, who has five quality starts in his last six trips to the mound. Mets have won 4 of his last 5 starts and he's been decent against PIT in his career. He allowed 2 ER in 6 IP when we saw this pitching match-up in May, an 8-4 Mets win. Snell continues to struggle, although the Pirates have found the win column twice in three home starts for him. Snell is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA vs. NYM in 6 career appearances. Mets come in fairly warm with a 7-3 record in their last 10, Pirates struggled to score against Houston in losing two of three to start their homestand. They scored one run twice and busted out for 7 in their lone win.Comment -
Play #82: Athletics/White Sox UNDER 9.5 (-125)
Trevor Cahill vs. Gavin Floyd. Start with Floyd who is coming in off two of his best starts this season. 16 IP and just 3 ER allowed in that span. At home, his four starts have averaged just under 7 runs per contest. The A's are still just so-so offensively with 12 runs in their four game set with Texas to start this road trip. The UNDER has played well between these two, hitting in 7 of the last 9 meetings. White Sox have been an UNDER machine at home, cashing that way in 15 of 22 home dates. OAK has gone UNDER in 8 of their last 10. Cahill has actually done well in 3 of his 4 road starts for Oakland. 2 UNDERs. 2 OVERs.Comment -
Nice bullpen work Mets.
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Play #83: [SERIES] Giants -130 (Nationals)
(2 Unit Play)
The Giants are not a good road team, but the Nationals are just not a good team anywhere. So the price even on a bad road team that is a better overall team is good to me, especially with the pitching match-ups.
G1: Lincecum vs. Stammen
G2: R.Johnson vs. Zimmerman
G3: Cain vs. Detwiler
You're getting the top pitcher in the game to open the series against a rookie who has been okay, but not great in two starts this season. Stammen has yielded 7 ER in 11.1 IP with the Nats losing to the Pirates and beating the Mets in those starts. Lincecum meanwhile comes in with a 2-1 road mark and a 2.97 ERA. Giants are 3-2 in his road starts. Not impressive, until you look and see the team with just 7 road wins all season. Lincecum needs to set the tone for this series in Game 1. Game 2 becomes a bit of a toss-up. The Unit has been solid in his last two starts, yielding just 2 ER in 11.1 IP. On the road though, he is 0-2 with an 8.50 ERA in 2009. He had two solid road starts and two poor starts, so it's anyone's guess really. He was on the winning end of an 11-7 Giants triumph when he pitched at home vs. WAS earlier this season. He gave up 4 ER in 5 IP in that one. One thing going in his favor is that the Nats have been awful vs. lefties (.214 at home). Zimmerman has been getting hit fairly hard in most of his starts since being called up. He's given up 5 ER or more in 5 of his last 6 starts, including 5 in 6 IP @ SF on May 12. Game 3 should favor the Giants as well with Cain on the hill. Cain has won 5 straight starts to improve to 6-1 on the season. He gave up 4 ER in 7 IP against WAS back in May, but came out a winner in a 9-7 SF victory. He's been especially nasty on the road this season with a 1.29 ERA in 4 starts. Giants are 2-2 in that span. Detwiler goes for WAS. He has been unlucky in two of his three starts, but got pounded for 5 ER in 4 IP vs. Philly in his last outing. His big problem is getting deep into games. He's gone 5, 6 & 4 innings in his three starts. That leaves the Washington bullpen to handle a lot of innings which would only help the cause for SF. Nats pen has been solid of late, but even with a 2.41 ERA over their last 10 games - the pen's 2009 ERA is 5.85. SF"s pen has been a pretty decent unit all year with a 3.74 ERA and is at 1.88 over their last 10. Giants come in having beaten the Nationals in 9 of the last 10 meetings, including 2 of 3 in SF. Nationals have lost 6 straight and 8 of 10. They are back home after a 6 game road trip. They've lost the openers of each home stand after their 3 road trips on the year.Comment -
Play #84: Cubs/Braves UNDER 9 (-115)
Randy Wells vs. Kenshin Kawakami. All four of Wells' starts with the Cubs have gone UNDER thus far with the high total of 9. He's allowed 3 ER or less in all four appearances. Kawakami has been much better at home this season vs. the road. His home starts are averaging just a shade over 7 runs per game with 4 of his 5 starts at "The Ted" going UNDER. In all, the Cubs have gone UNDER in 7 of their last 10. Both pens have been better of late, but still possess some meltdown characteristics. Kawakami is the concern with regard to getting deep into the game. He is only averaging a little over 5 IP per start, leaving a lot of pressure on the Braves' pen. If he can get into the 6th or 7th, that would help in a big way. There is some hope as three of his longest starts have come at home this season (6,6,8 IP).Comment -
Play #85: Red Sox +123
Dice-K vs. Porcello. Dice-K was very average in his first start off the DL. He's been about the same for most of his four starts. Goes about 5 IP, gives up about 4 ER. Boston is close in the game, but loses by one or two. Porcello meanwhile has been very solid. 3-1 at home with a 3.18 ERA on the season. 2 ER or less in 5 straight starts, but he hasn't exactly faced Murderer's Row. @KC, COL, OAK, @CLE, MIN. Dice-K is 3-1 in 4 starts vs. DET with a solid 2.81 ERA. Dice-K indicated that he had trouble working with a rookie catcher last time out, so he lands Varitek tonight. Boston's reworked batting order had a successful run in their last game with 8 runs against Toronto, so Tito is leaving it alone tonight. That means Pedrioa up top. Bay cleanup. Ellsbury down in the 8th spot.Comment
You'll turn it around.