Another day. Another bullpen beat down. Thanks Cubs. F-ing 5 runs in the last 2 innings. Giants pen is boning the opener of the series bet with the Nats by giving up 4 runs after the 6th. Beginning to think I might have to seriously consider doing only 1st 5 inning bets if I like an under.
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Play #86: Giants Team Total OVER 4 (-115)
San Francisco gets a 2nd crack at Jordan Zimmerman tonight. They got to him for 5 ER in 6 IP in a 9-7 San Francisco home win back on May 12th. Zimmerman has given up 5 ER or more in 5 of his last 6 starts and the opposition as scored at least 4 runs in 6 straight games that he's started. The Giants have now scored 29 runs vs. WAS in 4 games this season with a low of 3 in one game. They have scored at least 4 in 8 of their last 10 games overall. Zimmerman is averaging about 5.2 IP per start, so that should give SF some shots at the Nationals bullpen if they need it to complete the over here. Nats pen has been solid lately, but still has an ERA over 6 at home on the season. In Zimmerman's last 6 starts, the bullpen has allowed 16 more runs after he's left the game with 5 of those games giving up at least 2 runs from the pen. Will check lineups first, but unless it's a drastic rearrangment, sticking with this.Comment -
Play #87: Mariners -130
Bergesen vs. Vargas. Orioles will be facing a third straight quality lefty and they have struggled all series to score, putting up just 3 runs in the 1st two games and just two of the runs came off Bedard & Washburn. BAL is batting under .200 against lefties on the road. Vargas has been solid in his four starts since being thrown into the Seattle rotation. He's given up 2 ER or less in all 4 starts. His main problem in getting 3 no decisions has been run support, just 11 runs in those starts. That may not be a problem tonight as Bergesen has a 5.50 ERA in 3 road starts with the opposition scoring over 7 runs on average per game. Baltimore has lost all 4 road starts to the Nationals, Yankees & Blue Jays. BAL has lost 4 of his last 6 starts overall. Seattle should hope to KO Bergesen in the 5th or 6th and get another shot at the bullpen whom they scored 3 off of last night & left several more men on base in scoring position in the later innings.Comment -
Play #88: Grand Salami UNDER 126.5 (-110)
14 games on the slate today. An average of 9 runs per game would yield 126 total runs. I'm looking at the pitching match-ups and I see better than half that feature some quality starters going up against each other than could yield some lower scoring games. Bullpens, ya never know how they are gonna effect it in the end, but with some better starters going, hopefully that means less bullpen innings.
LAA/TOR: Lackey/Tallet
CHI/ATL: Zambrano/Jurjjens
MIL/FLA: Bush/J.Johnson
OAK/CHW: B.Anderson/Buehrle
SF/WAS: Cain/Detwiler
KC/TB: Meche/Shields
COL/HOU: Hammel/W.Rodriguez
PHI/LA: Hamels/Kershaw
CIN/STL: Harang/Carpenter
Those are the games I think are key in keeping the Salami under the number today. There are 8 afternoon games. I think if the afternoon games can keep the total at 73 or under, the night slate favors less runs with some of the real quality pitching match-ups located there and this would be in good shape. I think anything under 80 through the afternoon would give this a decent shot. Never tried the Salami in baseball, so this will be interesting.Comment -
Pay #89: Athletics/White Sox UNDER 9 (-110)
Anderson vs. Buehrle. The splits are fairly solid for both teams struggling vs. lefties. OAK hits just .220 vs. them on the road and CHI just .237 vs. them at home. Oakland has hit the UNDER in 10 of their last 11. ChiSox have hit the UNDER in 7 of 10 and a pretty stout 18 of 25 home games have cashed in favor of the UNDER for the Pale Hose. Buehrle's home starts have gone UNDER today's total 5 of 6 times and his last 6 starts in all have all gone UNDER. The main concern in this one staying low is Brett Anderson who has been miserable on the road. He's coming off a 4 IP, 6 ER performance vs. TEX and has a road ERA of 6.85. 4 of his 5 road starts have gone OVER. The only positive is that the game following Anderson's three worst starts this season (5 ER in each), he's been solid in bouncing back in two of them (3 ER or less). I'm hoping the White Sox struggles against lefties wins out against the struggles of the lefty starter. Anderson must get into the 5th or 6th here as the A's bullpen has been horrible on the road and has a 6.75 ERA in their last 10. Buehrle has gone at least 7 in his last 5 and the Chicago pen has been solid. The UNDER has hit in all 3 games between the two teams this season and 10 of the last 12 meetings in all.Comment -
Yeah. Heh. I'm hoping my secret weapon comes into play here, rain out of the double header in Washington or at least one getting washed out. That voids that bet altogether. White Sox and A's are trying to F me. 3 runs in the 9th so far, now at 7 for the game.Comment -
Salami voided because of the postponed game. Giants SERIES cashola!
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Play #90: [SERIES] Mets -125 (Nationals)
The Mets have begun to resemble the "Mess" here lately with health issues being a major problem. However, the tonic is right there with the Nationals. Here's the pitching match-ups:
G1: Redding vs. Martis
G2: Maine vs. Lannan
G3: L.Hernandez vs. Stammen
To start, the Mets have won 7 of the last 8 in this series which includes 5 of 6 in 2009. The Nats remain ice cold with just 3 wins in their last 21 games. And let's not forget that they have just two series wins ALL season. Game 1 slightly favors WAS because Redding has been absolute garbage. He's yielded 13 ER in his last two starts after a very solid 2009 debut against the Dodgers. Perhaps he steps his game up going against his former team. Martis has been better at home this season (3-0, 4.05 ERA). He is 0-1 with an 18.00 ERA in one career starts vs. NYM. Martis has also given up 5 ER or more in his last three starts. If the Mets can get anything from Redding and get him into the 6th inning, would feel good about their chances to snatch the opener. Game 2 should favor the Mets. Maine reportedly is better after his swine flu scare and he is 7-2 with a 3.79 ERA in 11 career starts vs. WAS. That includes a 5-2 win over the Nats on May 25th when he went 6 IP, giving up just 1 ER. Mets have won 6 of his last 7 starts. Lannan is 1-3 with a 5.79 ERA against the Mets in 6 starts. Nats are just 2-9 in his starts this season, including that May 25th loss @ NY. He does have a much better home ERA, but WAS is just 1-4 in those starts. Game 3 and it's Livan Hernandez who tossed a CG against the Nationals this season. He's been downright useful in his last 6 starts. Mets are 4-2 in those games and he's only given up more than 3 ER on one occassion in his last 7 starts. The rookie Stammen has pitched well enough for Washington to win two of his three starts, but he's only going about 6 innings per start, meaning plenty of bullpen time. He gave up 3 ER in 5 IP against the Mets on May 26th in a 6-1 loss, but the Nats won his two home starts. New York is fresh off getting swept in Pittsburgh and needs to turn things around in a hurry. I'll take the shot that the Nationals don't win 2 games out of 3 since they haven't won that many games in almost a month combined.Comment -
Play #91: Angels/Tigers OVER 8.5 (-105)
E.Santana vs. J.Verlander. Verlander has been absolutely filthy at home, but he has struggled against the Angels in his career. Verlander is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA vs. DET and has given up 6 ER in 2008 and 7 ER early in 2009 in his last two starts vs. LAA. Couple that with Santana being lost on the mount right now, having given up 15 ER in his last 6 IP and the OVER seems enticing here. Santana does own a 5-2 mark vs. DET, but it's 2-2 with a 7.17 ERA at Comerica Park. Tigers likely will be missing Miguel Cabrera with a hamstring problem. Still, plenty of the Tigers have success vs. Santana. Granderson has a couple HRs in 20 ABs, Ordonez is 6 for 17 with 4 RBI, Polanco is batting .353 vs. him in 17 ABs, Laird at .333. Likewise, the Angels have some good #s vs. Verlander. Abreu (4/9 with 1 HR), Vlad (5/9), Hunter (7/23), Matthews (4/8), Morales (2/5 - 5 RBI), Aybar (2/4 - 4 RBI). Getting Santana out early would be wise with the Angels pen still sporting an ERA over 6 on the season. Tigers' pen has bit hit a bit lately at 4.82 in their last 10. Verlander is averaging just over 6 IP per home start this season. It is 4 for 4 for the UNDERs in those starts, but JV's last four overall have found three OVERs cashing.Comment -
Play #92: Royals/Blue Jays 1st 5 Innings UNDER 5 (-110)
Hochevar vs. Richmond. Hochevar is back up from AAA for this start. Last time out in the majors, his sinker was working fairly well and subsequently, he held STL to 4 ER in 6 IP. Only one of those runs came before the 5th. In 2008, he faced the Jays twice. At TOR, he gave up 4 ER in 6 IP. At KC, he gave up just 1 ER in 6 IP. The game in Toronto, he had control issues and gave up a grand slam in the 1st inning. That however was the only runs scored in the 1st 5 innings. At KC, the game was a 2-1 pitcher's duel. Richmond is back in the rotation after being skipped over. He is 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA in home starts this year and held KC to 1 ER over 7 IP on the road back in April. If Hochevar can avoid his sometimes control issues that would be a huge help here. Feel the UNDER in the 1st 5 is better than the game as both bullpens have been having their problems in the last 10. ERAs over 7 for both.Comment -
Good luck EP36...ended up passing on that one. Leaned ff under but get a good read on Hoch.Comment -
I really am a jinx on your thread.
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You SOB.
Brutal. Great through 4 innings and then to shit in the 5th.Comment -
^^^yup.
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diogee you should let me know before first pitch if you're on the same game as me. Save me some money bro.
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Figures both pens hold up and the full game under would have hit. I love outsmarting myself.Comment -
Play #93: [NCAA] Florida/Southern Miss OVER 12 (-105)
The Golden Eagles were a Top 25 run producing offense on the season, averaging just under 8 runs per contest. The Gators were only 15 runs behind that pace on the season. Southern Miss' pitching staff had an ERA of 5.01, ranking them 72nd in the country, Florida's team ERA was at 4.16, but the starters do get hit hard at times. In the post-season, Florida's game totals have beaten this number 5 of 7 games. Southern Miss has passed this total in 7 of 9 in the post season. The Golden Eagles have now scored 8 runs or more in six straight with four of those resulting in double digits offensively. Over that same span they have allowed at least 6 runs in 5 games. Florida has scored at least 7 runs in 6 of 7. Southern Miss won Game 1 (9-7), so Florida has to have this one to stay alive. Two stout offenses should find success again today despite McInnis, Southern's best pitcher, taking the mound. McInnis pitched well in relief on June 1 vs. Georgia Tech, but his last start - he got rocked by Elon for 5 runs in 3.2 IP. Rice also got to him for 4 runs in less than 4 IP the prior start during the C-USA tournament.Comment -
eaglesphan,
you still doing NBA player props? havent heard from you over there in a whileComment -
Just posted one for Game 2.Comment -
Florida is pounding Southern Miss, 6-1 in the 3rd. Gators might get 12 runs by themselves tonight.Comment -
Play #94: [NCAA] TCU/Texas UNDER 11.5 (-120)
Two of the best pitching staffs in the country meet in the deciding Game 3 of their Super Regional tonight. Prior to the Super Regionals, UT has amassed a staff ERA of 2.82 (2nd best in the nation). TCU was 16th at 4.15. The Texas offense showed its wild inconsistency, going from 10 runs in Game 1 to just 2 in Game 2. On the season, the Horns were lower than middle-of-the pack offensively with 352 runs (#168). TCU tied for 97th with 409 runs. Texas will start Freshman Taylor Jungman who pitched like a fish against Army in the Regionals, but had the best ERA of UT's starters. If he falters, UT will turn to the pen early and has one of their regular starters (Workman) at their disposal, so not too concerned there. Tyler Lockwood goes for TCU. He pitched decently last time out vs. Oregon State in the Regionals, giving up 4 ER in 7 IP of a 5-4 TCU win. Frogs have 5 homers in this series, but they've been mostly solo shots. UT relies on bunting and small ball to put up runs. If TCU keeps the lead runners off base more often than not, this one should be close and under.Comment -
Play #95: Twins/Athletics Total Home Runs OVER 1.5 (-120)
Wind is blowing out a bit tonight and I'm feeling stupid.Comment -
Play #96: Reds -110
Cueto vs. Zimmermann. The pitching match-up alone warrants a play at this price for me. Cueto is 4-1 on the road this season with an ERA under 2. He is just 1-1 in two career starts vs. WAS with a 4.15 ERA. Zimmermann has been somewhate unlucky of late with two of his last three starts yielding only 2 ER, but winding up with losses. Washington has lost his last 5 starts in a row and 6 of 7 in all. He's made 5 home starts with the Nats winning his first and dropping the other 4. Cincy is scuffling with just 2 road wins in their last 10 tries and have been swept in Washington in the past two seasons, but if they're going to break out of those two funks - Cueto is the pitcher to help them do it.Comment -
Play #97: Cubs -110
Zambrano vs. Rodriguez. Zambrano has pitched well at Minute Maid Park in his career, going 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 14 appearances. Overall, he's 13-7 vs. HOU with a 2.66 ERA. Rodriguez has been on a three game slide. Only 13.2 IP over that span with 12 ER and 18 runs scored against him overall. Wandy is 4-4 with a 4.39 ERA vs. CHI and he did pitch in a 3-2 Houston win back in April at Minute Maid over the Cubs. Cubs have won 5 of 6 vs. HOU on the road this season.
Play #98: Giants/Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 (-115)
Zito vs. D.Davis. The Giants are scuffling against lefties on the road to the tune of .200. The D-backs have hit better, but still just .242 at home against lefties. At home, Davis' starts are averaging under 8 runs per game. Davis has already pitched twice vs. SF, giving up just 5 ER in 14 IP. The game totals in those two starts were 6 for the game in Arizona and just 2 for the one @ SF. Zito's six road starts are averaging just over 6 runs per game. In three starts vs. ARI in 2008, all game totals settled at 9 or less. The total had hit 9 runs or less in the first 6 meetings this year before last night's OVER. The UNDER has cashed in this series 67% of the time in the last 9 meetings at Arizona.Comment -
Good luck EP...we're in trouble on that under.
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I think it's curse proof tonight. Maybe. Almost. Not really.
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Looks like your poison has infiltrated this one too diogee. Thanks for the heads up though. Keep doin' it, maybe next time I'll be smart and jump ship.Comment -
Yep no kidding...as good as over after the 5th. Everytime I post in here it is an auto loss.
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Just for fun tonight they F-ed around and waited till the 9th to actually finish it off.Comment -
Yep thought it had a shot at a lucky win until I saw Qualls in there.Comment -
Play #99: Pirates +150
Maholm vs. Vazquez. Vazquez is just 1-4 at "The Ted" this year with a 4.19 ERA. The main problem being run support. That has shown up in his last three starts, all Braves losses, as ATL has scored just 4 runs. Vazquez did hold PIT to 0 runs in 6 IP in an 11-1 ATL win @ Pittsburgh in April. PIT is 5-2 in Maholm's 7 road starts this season. That includes winning his last 3 roadies. Maholm has been solid vs. ATL with a 1-1 record in 3 starts and a 1.80 ERA (4 ER in 20 IP). That includes a 3-0 PIT shutout win in April. These two teams have played three straight one run games in this series, so it should be tight.Comment -
Play #100: Blue Jays/Rangers UNDER 10 (-110)
Romero vs. Millwood. Romero hasn't been great in his last few starts, but the Rangers are scuffling against lefties lately, hitting .195 against them in their last 10. In their last two starts vs. LHP, Tallet & Lester combined to hold TEX to 1 run in 16 IP by the starters and just 1 run overall in those two games. Millwood's renaissance continues as the UNDER has now hit in 8 of his 10 starts this season. In his 6 home starts, the total has only hit above 10 once. He's only given up more than 3 ER in 3 starts all season. One of those was a 5-2 TOR win for the Jays in Toronto over Texas. TEX is cashing UNDERS at a solid clip still, 22 of their last 30. Both pens have been a little iffy, so the starters do need to get deep into this one. 6th or later would be BIG. Possibility of some rain again later, but hopefully nothing like the crap that rolled through North TX last night.Comment