EP36's: Chase For 60

EaglesPhan36 · 10-05-09, 10:23 AM

FINAL REGULAR SEASON STATS
Win Percentage 53.88% | 111-95-13
Net: 15.63u

Didn't meet the lofty 60% goal, but a winning season is a winning season. Clearing the spreadsheet out to begin a new one for the post-season. Goal for the playoffs is 55% and to be in the black!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-06-09, 02:17 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #1: Tigers Team Total OVER 3.5 (-115)

You must be trippin' EP? Nay. I ain't trippin' son. Although El Tigres have been a bit inconsistent batting-wise, they do possess good #s vs. Scott Baker. Before his 5 IP, 0 ER performance in his last outing, Detroit had nailed Baker for 15 ER in three starts in 2009. Ordonez is hitting .462 & Guillen .407 to pace the Detroit bats that know Baker well. Thames,Granderson & Ordonez all have multiple HRs off Baker. In 6 of Baker's last 8 starts vs. DET dating back through last season, the Tigers have scored at least 4 runs. Detroit has also scored at least 4 runs in support of Porcello.

RoagBettor · 10-06-09, 02:19 PM

Good work EP!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-06-09, 06:47 PM

I loves me some Maggs Ordonez! Thought I was gonna get skay-rewed! Good start to the post-season.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-07-09, 01:05 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #2: Ubaldo Jimenez Total Pitches UNDER 104.5 (-115)

Jiminez has tossed 105 pitches or more in 7 of his last 10 starts and 11 of 19 on the road this season. His last two encounters with Philadelphia have seen him throw less than 100 pitches each time, including a post-season start in 2007. Wind is going to be a major factor today with it blustery and blowing left-to-right and out toward right, could mean extra runs today. My opinion here is that his start goes one of two ways, very effective and efficient with his pitches - totaling around 100 before he's lifted for a pinch hitter or runs into late trouble. OR he gets rocked and is done early.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-07-09, 04:18 PM

92 pitches. Winna.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-08-09, 12:56 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #3: Rockies +135
The Phils are just 1-8 in Hamels day starts this season. Cook has gone twice vs. PHI this season, going 5 IP, yielding 3 ER at his last start in Philadelphia. 6 IP & 3 ER in April at home. Hamels was pounded for 7 ER in 3.1 IP in April at Colorado. Hunchy hunch, even Steven after Game 2.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-08-09, 05:28 PM

Daddy likes the post-season so far.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-08-09, 08:01 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #4: Red Sox/Angels OVER 8.5 (-115)
5 of the 6 games played between these two @ L.A. this season ended up with totals of 9 or more. 5 of Lester's last 6 road starts have also gone to totals of 9 or more. In 4 career starts vs. the Angels, Lester has a 7.88 ERA. Lackey has a 5.25 ERA in 14 careers starts vs. BOS.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-09-09, 12:00 AM

Well Lackey just dominated and/or Boston was asleep at the wheel, so this had zero chance. 3-1 after a couple days though, I shall take it.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-09-09, 03:47 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #5: A.J. Burnett Total Pitches OVER 103.5 (-115)
Burnett has thrown at least 104 pitches in 14 of 16 home starts in 2009. He's tossed at least 104 pitches in 21 of his 33 starts overall. Burnett has struck out 195 batters and walked 97, that means plenty of high counts to batters. Even when he's been bombed, he's stuck around and thrown a ton of pitches. So long as he gets his fair share of K's and BB's, this has a shot.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-09, 11:45 AM

POST-SEASON PLAY #6: Rockies/Phillies OVER 9 (+105)
Time to get back on track today after a tough beat last play as I thought Burnett would go one more inning and get to the desired number. Today, it's Happ vs. Hammel. Happ has gotten plenty of run support of late as the Phils have put up 32 runs in his last 4 starts. Happ also seemed a bit gassed late in the season as he went less & less innings each start. His lone start vs. COL was a brilliant CG shutout at home where the Phils put up 7 behind him. Hammel at home has seen totals hitting 9 or better in 12 of 15. He pitched solid ball against the Phils on the road, 6+, 3 ER in an 8-3 Rockies win. The last 5 meetings in Colorado between these two have hit the OVER. It's going to be cold, but I think the bats of at least one of the teams gets warmed up tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-12-09, 04:58 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #7: Phillies Team Total OVER 4 (-110)
Lee vs. Jimenez. 9 of Lee's 13 starts with PHI have seen him get at least 4 runs of support, including Game 1 of this series. Jimenez has been solid, but Philly got him for 5 runs in Game 1 and this is Elimination City, so the pressure is on. 3 of his last 5 starts have seen him give up 4 ER or more.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-15-09, 04:23 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #8: Phillies +129 [NLCS Game #1]
Hamels vs. Kershaw. Kershaw is 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA in 4 career starts against Philadelphia. He only allowed 2 ER in 5+ IP against the Phils back in June, but wound up on the wrong end of a 3-0 loss. Hamels meanwhile is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA vs. LA in 4 starts. That includes a CG shutout in the same game against Kershaw in June and a 7IP, 1 ER performance in a 5-3 loss at home in May. Hamels has been pretty iffy over the last month, but the Dodgers don't seem to phase him. In a Game 1 that seems pretty even, plus odds with the two pitchers' histories + Hamels stellar pitching vs. LA last post-season - seems to have a decent shot.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-16-09, 08:36 AM

Looks like the ALCS might be on-hold for a day at least. Lots of rain in NY.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-16-09, 02:27 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #9: Phillies/Dodgers 1st 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-115)
Pedro vs. Padilla. Pedro hasn't pitched in two weeks and I don't trust Padilla or his floatilla against one of his former teams. I think one or both of these guys is gonna get hit early. Both guys got pretty solid run support in their starts late in the season with their respective teams.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 05:32 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #10: Angels +169
Saunders vs. Burnett. LA has won 8 of Saunders' last 10 starts. Saunders' two starts vs. NYY this season yielded two Angels' wins. Burnett was solid vs. LA with two wins in two tries in 2009. Saunders has been steady since the end of August. 2 ER or less in his last 8 straight. This one is much closer than the line set, so I'll side with the dog. to even it up.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-19-09, 02:22 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #11: Yankees/Angels OVER 8.5 (-115)
Pettitte vs. Weaver. Both times this pitching match-up happened in the regular season, a ton of runs followed. 41 in two games. Both pitchers saw their day starts average 10+ runs per contest in 16 total starts. In 5 meetings between the two teams @ L.A. this season, four hit for at least 9 runs. Weaver has a 5.88 career ERA vs. NYY. Pettitte has a 4.70 ERA vs. LAA.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-20-09, 12:43 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #12: Angels -2 (+400)
Sabathia vs. Kazmir. Much is being made about the three days rest factor for Sabathia, but more-so for me is that Kazmir has been a Yankee stopped throughout his career. In 2009 alone, he has three starts vs. NYY with 19.2 IP and 7 ER allowed. While with Tampa, the Rays beat the Yanks in both his starts by more than 2 runs. His lone start with the Angels vs. NYY wound up in a 3-2 loss. He is 6-5 with a 2.67 ERA in his career in 14 starts vs. the Yanks. The Angels were 5-2 in his 7 starts down the stretch. Sabathia limited the Halos to 1 ER in 8 IP in Game 1. His two regular season starts vs. LAA were far less convincing with 5 runs scoring against him in both starts. Sabathia has not pitched on 3 days rest this season, but I do not expect it to big a large factor as he has solid #s in his career (3-1 with an ERA near 1) in those situations. Asking the Angels to win by 3 may be stretching it, but this series seems primed for one of the offenses to just wake up and smother the opposition. At this price and with Kazmir hopefully continuing his run as Yankees stopper, I'll take a wild shot in the dark here & go for the mutha fuggin gusto!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-25-09, 06:32 PM

POST-SEASON PLAY #13: ALCS Game 6 Total HRs OVER 2/2.5 (+105)
Saunders has been hit for a HR in each of his four starts vs. NYY this season. Pettitte has given up 3 to the Angels in his last three starts, including two in his last start. First two games in Yankee Stadium went against the grain with 2 HRs in Game 2 & none in Game 1. The Stadium yielded 2.86 on average per game this season. Wind is blowing out towards Right-Center. In 13 games measured with the wind blowing out toward right, 3+ HRs were the average.