EP36's: Chase For 60

[EaglesPhan36]

Whaddup fellas. I'm going to be very strict with myself in baseball this year and see if it yields what I want. My goal is 60% winners over the course of the season. My strategy is no more than two plays per day on single games + 1-3 series bets per week part (Early/Weekend). The way I figure, I would be making a max of about 20 bets per week if I maxed out each day for single games and did 3 series bets per week part. Hoping I can provide some insight and we can all turn up winners by October! It's a marathon, not a sprint baby. I'll be tracking my picks on the old spreadsheet. Will clear out all the basketball picks after Monday & track baseball only from then on.


Play #1: Braves +120
Brett Myers has been wicked awful against the Braves in his career. In 2 starts last year, he yielded 14 runs in 2 starts vs. ATL. In 8 starts dating back to 2006 against the Braves, the Phils have only won twice when Myers took the hill as the starter. Derek Lowe has had some success at Citizens Bank Ballpark with a 2-0 record in 3 career starts there with a 2.25 ERA. He has a 4-1 career mark vs. Philly in 11 appearances, 4 of them starts. Myers was better at home down the stretch in 2008, but he still got routed against ATL 10-4 late in September. I'll buck the trend of World Series champs winning their home opener 80% of the time in the last decade and go with the new look Braves here to make a statement to start 2009.

[poker_dummy101]

The goal isnt a high win percentage.

Id rather go 550-450 for 55% than 60-40 for 60%.

[j0hnnyv]

"new look braves" so funny. everythings drinking the espn2 koolaid

[EdV38]

You convinced me at Brett Myers has been wicked awful.

One day guys like Kevin Slowey and Jesse Litsch will be respected by baseball for their control over these power guys that can strikeout close to a guy an inning but are mediocre pitchers otherwise. Until then, exploit the betting opportunities

[j0hnnyv]

brett myers was solid in the postseason last year. he will get them 5 and then phils pen and lights out lidge will close it up. utley howard and jroll will smack lowe around silly, hell be gone in 3.

[EdV38]

Actually the more I think about it the sure play seems to be over 8.5. I'm neither a Myers fan nor a Lowe fan and I can see the Phillies lighting him up substantially while Myers just implodes.

[EaglesPhan36]

The goal isnt a high win percentage.

Id rather go 550-450 for 55% than 60-40 for 60%.

Well like I said, I'm trying to minimize the # of plays per week and if I am hitting near my goal, maximize the profits for myself. For me at least, the more plays made usually = more money lost at the end of the day.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cancelling Rangers Season Total Wins Wager. Replaced & Marked with write-up on Page 2.

[austintx05]

I predicted 78, so I can see the Rangers comin' though for you.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm quitting. Batting .1000.

[spongerat]

they say "wicked" in texas now?

[EaglesPhan36]

I wasn't born in Texas.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #3: Texas +100
Kevin Millwood hasn't been completely awful against Cleveland in his career with a 3-1 mark in 4 starts and 4.56 ERA. His last two Opening Day starts have been plenty good enough to win, going 6 IP last season, giving up just 2 unearned runs. Seattle beat Texas though, 5-2. In 2007 against the Angels, he went 5 IP and yielded 3 ER. Rangers lost 4-1. Today, they run up against Cliff Lee. Last year's Cy Young winner though looked anything but during Spring Training. 0-3 with a 12.46 ERA. Lee is 5-2 against TEX, but sports an ERA over 6 in those appearances. His last two starts at Texas have yielded big games offensively for Texas with the Rangers raking him for 13 ER in those starts. If Millwood can hold down the fort for 6 IP today, plenty of the Texas bats have had success against Lee & could provide the Rangers with a nice win to start off 2009.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #4: [SERIES] Marlins -200 (Nationals)
Nolasco & Johnson are a combined 8-1 in their careers vs. Washington. Those are Florida's first two starters in this series. The Nationals counter with Lannan & Olsen. Volstad takes the hill on Wednesday for Florida, giving another solid option for a win. Cabrera would roll out for the Nationals in Game 3. Washington have only won 14 of their past 53 road games & are 5-17 in their last 22 in Florida. The Marlins have also taken 7 straight series from the Nats.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #5: Rockies/Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 (-125)
I'm jumping in on this one. Most people see Brandon Webb's name and automatically hit the UNDER button. Not me gringo. Webb's home starts last season hit the OVER in 11 of 16. Additionally, all of Aaron Cook's starts vs. Arizona in the past two seasons have reached at least 8 runs. Webb's Rockies' starts have hit at least 8 runs in 8 of 10 over that same span. Cook has a 5.14 ERA against the D-Backs in 18 career appearances and that jumps a full run to over 6 at Chase Field in 9 career appearances. Also, last season the total for Rockies-Diamondbacks games hit at least 8 runs in 13 of 18 tries. Even if Webb spins a real gem, chances still are possible for Arizona to do the majority of the damage and work this one over the number.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bang Bang.

[EaglesPhan36]

Over done in the 3rd in Arizona.

[blowseq]

wowww

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #6: Brewers/Giants OVER 7 (-120)
Another one that many might shy away from because of the Lincecum name. But Lincecum in 4 starts against MIL has a 1-2 record with a 5.12 ERA. That includes the past two seasons (1 start each) where he's yielded 9 runs. His day starts in 2008 averaged 9 runs per contest as well. On the other side is Jeff Suppan who has a 3-4 mark with a 4.99 ERA in 8 career starts vs. SF. Suppan had one decent start in his only career game at AT&T Park, giving up 3 runs in 6 IP. Note his day starts in 2008 averaged close to 10 runs per contest. Finally, the last 20 times these teams have hooked up ... the total has been at least 7 in every game & only hit exactly 7 once.

[Rixsaw]

You sure did your homework brother Phan. Great start. Good luck.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #7: Cubs/Astros UNDER 8.5 (-115)
The UNDER has been on a pretty amazing run in this series. 24 of the last 30 played in Houston have gone under & over 70% of their last 50+ meetings have gone under. Last season in 17 games, there were just five overs and only one came in Houston. Chicago's Ryan Dempster takes the hill today. His career numbers against the Astros don't look pretty, but when you look deeper, you like them more. Last season transitioning back to being a starter, Dempster faced HOU four times. In two starts in Houston, he went 14 IP and gave up 4 ER, all in one start. Game totals were 9-0 Cubs and 4-2 Astros. In his two other starts at Wrigley vs. HOU, Dempster went 12 IP & gave up 5 runs. Both games went well under tonight's posted total. Wandy Rodriguez likewise does not offer sexy stats vs. CHI on first inspection, but dating back to 2006, Wandy hasn't given up more than one run in a home start against the Cubs. Throw in that the Astros haven't scored more than 5 runs against the Cubs at home in the last 20 meetings and the under looks like a decent shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Another over in the bank before the 5th inning.

[EaglesPhan36]

Spreadsheet now featuring Baseball plays only. Still haven't placed my Rangers season bet. Wanted to put a little more on it with some winnings from this week. Price & # of games has changed. Will update that info when I make the wager this weekend.

[Rixsaw]

2 for 2..... Nice work.

[mcbaseball10]

EP, solid day in baseball after an impressive NCAA tourney. I like your style. You just post winners. Keep up the good work.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #8: Marlins -145
Fish go for the sweep of the Nationals this afternoon. Cabrera vs. Volstad. Cabrera's career #s for day starts are pure crapola. 46 starts, 13-18 record, 6.06 ERA. Last year, he was fortunate that his offense carried his team to a win in the opener after Cabrera gave up 6 ER to Tampa in a 9-6 Orioles win. Volstad meanwhile quietly pitched very well for FLA last season. He was 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA in day starts last season. His main problem at home was walks. 22 BB and just 28 K in 47.1 IP. The Fish did not score a lot of runs for him in his home starts last season, but showed more props to him with 28 runs scored in his last 5 starts (4-1) in September. Cabrera had a bad spring where his walk problems showed themselves again, 7 BB in 12.2 IP with 9 ER yielded. A hot Marlins offense that has chased both Nationals starters after 3 IP in the first two games of this series could have another big day if they remain patient and work the walks from Cabrera and then get to what is already an overworked bullpen. Florida swept Washington in 3 of the 6 series last year and could make it now, 4 of the last 7 with a win today. Make sure to check those lineups first!

[EaglesPhan36]

Sweat shop special there in the 9th. But no problems esse.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #9: Mariners/Twins OVER 8.5 (-110)
Another series that favors a flavor for the OVER recently. 7 of the last 8 meetings in Minnesota have gone OVER between these two teams. In the last 33 meetings, the OVER has hit over 70%. Carlos Silva was lit up in his return to Minnesota last year, 9 runs in 3 IP. In all, his inaugural season with Seattle was forgettable. 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA. His road ERA was 6/70. Kevin Slowey throws for the Twins tonight and he could be the next ace in the making for this club as he comes in off a great spring. He had a solid 3.38 ERA at home in 2008, but did have some inconsistencies over the last 3 months of the season with two months with an ERA over 5.00. Minnesota should have added confidence after their 9th inning rally last night while Seattle's hitters will need to be on their toes with Slowey. He throws a lot of strikes, so getting ahead of the count is imperative.

[EaglesPhan36]

Another one done before the game is even official.

[The_Kid]

You're killing it so far, EaglesPhan. Keep it up.

[Rixsaw]

Oh man...I missed out your Over Twins call.....Another good day for you. I has a negative day in MLB and NBA

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #10: Dodgers -145
Clayton Kershaw vs. Kevin Correia. The phenom for LA had 3 solid outings against the Padres in 2008. 2 in LA, 1 in SD. The key in all 3, all were easy Dodgers' wins. At PETCO, Kershaw limited SD to 2 runs in 5.1 IP as LA won out, 7-2. He was better in day starts last year than at night with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts. SD has seen two lefties already in Kuroda & Wolf with some limited success, but an AVG. in the low .200s against them. Correia meanwhile had a forgettable stint with SF in 2008. 3-8 with a 6.05 ERA led the Giants to release him. He did pitch at his new home in PETCO on 3 occassions last year, giving up 6 ER in 7.2 IP. He was decent against the Dodgers in a couple starts, beating them 3-2 in August, but losing 7-6 in July. Correia had a poor Spring with an ERA over 6. He also suffered in day starts in 2008, 1-4 with an ERA above 6. Check the lineups as always, but the only regular who is getting rest for LA for certain is Furcal. Torre may use this opp to crack Juan Pierre into the lineup to bat leadoff. Pierre has strong #s against Correia (7 for 16).

[EaglesPhan36]

Was going to hit the Brewers-Giants over. But looks like the forecast has a lot of rain in San Fran tonight. Gonna skip it and look to tomorrow/weekend.

[blowseq]

thanks for the information Eagles...

[EaglesPhan36]

First bullpen meltdown loss forthcoming from the Dodgers. Took 10 picks, so I guess I can't be too pissed since these are gonna happen.