That was my 3rd yesterday. I really want to keep my plays at 2 per day MAX, but that one was too juicy for me to pass after I had looked at it. Got away with the extra play, but I won't be tempting the Baseball Gods too much like that!
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Play #23: Cardinals/Diamondbacks UNDER 9 (-115)
Carpenter vs. Scherzer. Scherzer is from St.Louis, so I trust he'll relish this opportunity. He had some shoulder problems early in the year, but his rehab has reportedly gone well & it does not appear to be an issue. Scherzer has electric stuff and was brilliant in September 2008. His last four starts, he did not allow more than 3 ER in any start and pitched 5 against STL on the road, yielding 4 runs, 3 ER. In looking at Scherzer's starts as a whole in his rookie campaign, he only had one bad outing on the road in Philly where he gave up 5 ER. His two home starts fell well below tonight's posted number. In his 7 starts, the games averaged just a shade over 7 runs as the total. Take into account the 15 scored in that Philly debacle and the majority of his starts finished well UNDER. Carpenter looked superb in his season debut, no-hitting a fairly decent Pirates lineup for half the game and giving up just one hit in 7 IP. Carpenter has solid #s at Chase Field. 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA in 4 appearances. Only Tony Clark has had any real success against Carpenter for the D-Backs. In fact, the majority of the guys who will likely be in the lineup tonight don't have much experience vs. Carpenter at all. For a veteran pitcher, you'd figure that is probably to his advantage at least for the 1st couple trips through the lineup. The one big help for tonight will be if Scherzer can get into the 6th inning at least. I'm guessing that's about the ceiling for him since he still experiences the youthful wildness from time to time. The further he gets into the game, the less opps the Cardinals get against the middle relief of Arizona, which hasn't been great so far. Cards have played UNDER in 3 of 4. Diamondbacks' bats have been held in check for the most part this season. They blasted out 9 against COL (Cook) in one game & the same against LA (McDonald), but otherwise have just 6 runs scored in the other 5 games, including only 4 in their last 3.Comment -
I like it. BOL.Comment -
Tailing you on this one. Posted it in my thread with the proper credit given to you of course
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Play #24: Yankees Team Total OVER 4 (-115)
Even with their struggles, the Yankees have scored at least 4 runs in every game this season. They face Matt Garza who dazzled the BoSox in his first start, shutting them down - but that might not be quite the accomplishment many thought as Boston is struggling a ton at the plate right now. Still, Garza has the stuff on any given night to completely shut down an offense. That being said, in his 3 starts vs. NYY last season, the Yanks went over this run total in 2 of 3. In those 2 games, Garza was gone after 5 IP and that needs to be the formula tonight as well. In games this season where the TB starters have gone less than 6 IP, teams have scored 6, 5 & 5 runs. Rays have given up at least 4 in 4 of 7 this year, some of that due to the blowout factor in which they have been way ahead and relaxed with their bullpen. The Yankees who have done the most damage against Garza are Cano (5 for 11), Jeter (4/11), Posada (2/3) & Nady who was just 1 for 5, but hit a HR off Garza. Checking the lineups before making this official, but expect Teixeira back tonight and then the normal look to the Yankees batting order.Comment -
Staying committed to the Yankees wager after seeing the lineups. Don't like Gardner leading off, but the rest is kosher.Comment -
Kinda felt the clocking ticking as soon as Carpenter left this game early that sooner or later, the pen was gonna F this one and it did. 2nd bullpen beatdown.
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Great Yankees play though. Even though it took the 9th to get it done. Gardner RBI plus Jeter HR, not going to happen often!Comment -
Hey EP, any leans on the early games today? I like the Boston/Oak 8.5 over because of the over used bullpens.Comment -
I'm very iffy on a few of the afternoon games, so I think I am going to pass. Want to talk myself into the over in that Boston game. Wakefield does not have good #s at McAfee Coliseum. I'm just uncertain about the rookie for the A's. He had one bad inning against Seattle, but otherwise shut them down. If neither team gets to the starters fairly early, both have shutdown bullpens that have been fairly effective. I think the over is a better play here, but I'm probably passing until the night games as I look around.Comment -
Play #25: Brewers -135
Owings vs. Looper. The Brewers are off to a very sluggish start (2-6), but this is a good spot for them as Looper has good lifetime numbers vs. Cincy. 4-2 with a 3.36 ERA in 36 appearances. More impresive are the individual numbers where he has kept a lot of the Reds bats down. Bruce 1 for 10. Encarnacion 3 for 19. Hairston, Jr. 1 for 7. Phillips 1 for 11. Looper was solid in his debut, giving up 5 hits in 5 IP with 1 ER against the Cubs. Walks are what killed him from going deeper in that game as he issued four free passes and tossed 97 pitches. He needs to be more efficient and get deeper into this one. Owings has not faired well at all against Milwaukee, 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in 2 starts. Both were at Miller Park. Braun & Hart have homered off him. Fielder has 2 hits in 5 ABs. Hart is 2 for 5. Hardy 2 for 3. So even though the Brew Crew has had a tough go, this is a good match-up for them to get a win and not get swept. The Reds have owned the Brewers in Milwaukee (8-2 in their last 10), but MIL has been able to avoid sweeps in those series with the lone win coming in Game 3 in two of those.Comment -
ChiSox Series for me goes as a PUSH because my book's rules state the games have to be played during a set period that ended today. If Chicago won, I could have still won, but since they split 1-1 .. push it is. Nothing gained! Nothing lost!Comment -
Play #26: Mariners Team Total OVER 3.5 (-120)
Jered Weaver has not had much success at keeping runs off the board at SAFECO Field in his career. 3-2 with a 5.86 ERA in 7 starts. In 2008, he surrendered 6 ER, 4 ER & 5 ER in three starts there. In 2007, he had one solid statr (2 ER) and the other he gave up 6 ER. In all four starts vs. LAA last year, the Mariners scored at least 4 runs in games started by Weaver. Johjima has the best #s against him, .370 avg & 4 RBI. Jose Lopez has hit him well (.300) along with Ichiro at .273. Betancourt has 5 RBI in 27 ABs. Seattle has also scored at least 4 runs against the Angels at SAFECO in 8 of the last 10 meetings.Comment -
Bangus Maximus.
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Cashed!Comment -
So which ones are ur Favs's EPhan?Comment -
Play #27: Marlins Team Total OVER 4 (-110)
Kenshin Kawakami, the Japanese import, gets the start for Atlanta today. The Marlins offense has been red hot to start the season, scoring at least 4 runs in 7 of 8 & 15 runs in the first two games of this series. The key today is for the Fish to exercise patience with Kawakami. He had some walk issues in Spring Training and walked 4 in his debut where he gave up 3 ER to the Nationals in 6 IP. Kawakami doesn't have a blazing fastball, the curve is his big pitch. So the Fish have to have done their homework to have success. By exercising patience and working the counts, Florida will have a chance to get to that giving Atlanta bullpen that has a 7.00 ERA so far this season and has given up 8 runs in the first two games of the series. Braves have given up 5 runs or more in 5 of their last 6 & 4 of their 5 home games this season. Weather looks great in Atlanta today. Fish got the meat of the order playing again today with Ramirez, Cantu & Uggla. Bonifacio will lead off. He might need to be the most patient of all after striking out four times yesterday. He's got to set the table!Comment -
Almsot there.
3-0. What do you feel about the Dodgers/Giants over?
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EP....glad we are on the same side....the Fish o4 seems like a no brainer.Comment -
Guys, I'm headed out on the road for my best friend's wedding this weekend. I won't have much chance to post if any until probably late Sunday when I get back. Don't have any other "official" games I'll be on today, but I am intrigued by the over in the Jays-Twins game. Don't be afraid of the Halladay name there. I might take that, plus it's +110 at 7.5.
Fish - Chinga-Ling!
No thoughts on that OVER in LA tonight gambit. The number has been going up. Really depends on Zito. He had good #s at Dodger Stadium. Giants probably aren't going to get more than 3-4 if that.Comment -
another great call reeling in the fish. Gonna struggle here the next few days without your picks. I guess I could stop gambling.....what?!?! Sorry I almost lost my mind there 
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Jays and Twins are at 7 now. Scared of Halladay shutting em down though...Comment -
Tor might get the 7 on their own....tons of offense this year so far. Personally I am going to load up on the SF/LAD over.Comment -
Taking the Bluejays over 4...seems good. Good luck on the Dodgers over. I backed out of that. lolComment -
Play #28: [SERIES] Rockies +125 (Diamondbacks)
Second time this season that these two teams meet at Chase Field. Rockies took 2 of the first 3, breaking a string of 6 straight Arizona wins at home over Colorado dating back to last season. Rockies still don't enjoy a great deal of success there, but they do have the pitching edge I believe through the 1st couple games in this series. Starts with Marquis vs. Garland tonight. Marquis has been Colorado's best pitcher so far with a 1.93 ERA in 2 starts, beating Philadelphia & the Cubs. He is 0-3 in 5 starts at Chase Field, but does sport a 3.60 ERA there. Chris Young has hurt him with 3 HRs in 6 ABs & Conor Jackson is 4 for 11, but otherwise he has kept most of the D-Backs bats in check. Garland has never faced the Rox, but might be the elixir they need after a tough series in LA. Garland had a respectable first start, but was bashed for 7 ER in his last one. Game 2 swings Morales vs. Petit. Morales went 6 strong innings in winning against the D-Backs earlier this month & it will help that Arizona only is hitting .147 against lefties. Petit has good career #s in limited time vs. COL, but has had trouble with efficiency this year. He made it through 5 IP in his 1st start, but only 2 IP in his last. The D-Backs lost both starts, allowing the opposition double figures in runs. Game 3 would probably favor the D-Backs with Haren on the hill. He's been rock solid, but COL did outduel him 3-0 the first time he pitched against them this season. In fact, Haren is 0-3 this season despite a 1.89 ERA signaling a severe lack of run support. De La Rosa may not be able to match Haren for talent, but he brings the lefty card to the equation and does have a 1-1 career mark vs. ARI with a 3.57 ERA in 7 appearances. He's coming off a solid start vs. LA. I like that the Diamondbacks are 0-5 vs. lefty starters this year with just 5 runs scored in those games & the Rockies will bring two out in Games 2 & 3 of this series. Both offenses have been iffy, but at least the Rockies have put up some runs whereas Arizona has just 2 runs in their last 3 games with two of those being shutouts courtesy of left handed opposition. If Marquis can set the tone tonight and the offense gets off to a good start, I think COL can get a split of the last two games here with those lefty starters.Comment -
Glad your back! I got a little out of control with the bets this weekend and it cost me. Looking to settle back down and cash in on some winners this week.
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Play #29: Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 8 (-125)
McCarthy vs. Halladay. Again, the Halladay name isn't going to scare me away here. Runs have found his two starts this season despite his own stellar performances. In his career though, Big Roy has had some issues with the Rangers hitters. Blalock is a lifetime .333 hitter against him with a couple HRs. Byrd also hitting .333 in more limited ABs (9). Ian Kinsler (5 for 16). David Murphy (4 for 8, 4 2Bs). Young .318 lifetime average vs. Halladay. The big question is can the Rangers hitters produce on the road? They only managed 9 runs in a 3 game set vs. DET this season. They did score 11 runs combined in two games last season in Toronto. Over the past two seasons, Halladay has given up 14 ER in 20+ IP vs. TEX. All of that coming in 2007 and more than half the damage in one outing @ Texas. McCarthy has been fairly solid for the Rangers in his 2 starts, giving up 3 ER in each. His problem is usually efficiency and that hopefully can be a catalyst to get into the giving Rangers' bullpen today (7.68 ERA). Even though McCarthy gave up just the 3 runs in each start, the totals still blasted into double digits both times. The Jays have actually been more of an UNDER trend at home (5 of 7), but you take into account that they faced better starting pitching in those series vs. DET & OAK and still averaged close to 5 runs per game. Two keys for me here in getting this done: Blue Jays need to work McCarthy and have him out by the 5th or 6th. Rangers need early success against Halladay.Comment -
Play #30: Athletics/Yankees OVER 9.5 (+100)
A lot being made of the wind's effect in the new stadium. I'll pay to find out tonight. Yankees have been raking lefties to the tune of .317 this season. Eveland had one effective start vs. NYY last season, allowing just 2 runs in 6 IP. This season, both his games have seen totals go to 10 or more. He pitched well in the opener, allowing 3 ER in 6 IP, but not as well against BOS - 5 ER in less than 5 IP. He has not fared well on the road in his career (5.38 ERA) and has never pitched at either Yankees Stadium. With all the press this wind issue has gotten, that could get in his head some. Pettitte has been stellar vs. OAK in his career. He was 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA last season vs. the A's, but this is of course a different team. This A's team has not faired well vs. lefties so far, but many of tonight's starters have done decently against Pettitte. Cabrera, Ellis, Cust, Chavez & Sweeney have hit better than .300 against him since 2004. OVERs have hit in 8 of 11 for OAK & 6 of 8 for NYY. All four games at the new stadium have hit at least 10. Pettitte may be the exception so far and toss a gem, but I fancy that both teams have some success and if Oakland can get into the Yankees' pen early, then this definitely has a good shot.Comment -
Splitsville tonight. That Yankees/A's game was frustrating. Lots of opps to have pushed the over there. Looks like the Rockies are in the tank for the series. Thought they would have at least made the 3rd game the decider. Oh well.Comment -
What a up and down day. I had Atl and Fla
It's funny I maybe bet Fla once or twice during their hot start but now I'm 0-2 with them in this series. Atl opens up a 3-0 lead but then never scores again?? But Col won....still alive!
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Play #31: Twins/Red Sox OVER 9.5 *Game 1* (+105)
Scott Baker has not been Scott Baker with his shoulder issues & the Twins have touched Wakefield in the past (Morneau, Cuddyer, Crede). Baker has a couple great starts vs. BOS in his career, but I don't think everything is right with him and/or he's still pitching his way into form because of the Spring Training issues. Red Sox have gone over in 8 of the last 9 and the Twins in 4 of the last 5. If the Sox get to Baker early, then they get to a shaky Minnesota bullpen (7.03 ERA). Lineups have mostly regulars in for both teams. Boston's offense seems to be getting untracked with a couple double digit performances on this homestand. Weather shouldn't be an issue in Game 1 with the rain expected later in the afternoon.Comment -
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