System Integrity?

ploben · 06-02-09, 08:08 PM

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johncrud · 06-02-09, 08:29 PM

Is this reverse line movement concept a psychological thing? Wouldnt it be too easy to get bet on RLM??

DeeWizzle · 06-02-09, 08:34 PM

I see 66% on Phi rl and 74% on Phi ml. I would have to agree with Ploben

aneurysm00 · 06-02-09, 10:16 PM

Nice going for those who went with the Yankees as the Padres have seemed to have digged themselves a nice big hole here.

jamesrg · 06-02-09, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by aneurysm00

Nice going for those who went with the Yankees as the Padres have seemed to have digged themselves a nice big hole here.

Padres are pure garbage

Glad i took the Yanks

corona · 06-03-09, 01:43 AM

dodgers -185ml, +105rl for june 3rd.
yankees a close second at -180

floridagolfer · 06-03-09, 06:05 AM

Originally posted by corona

dodgers -185ml, +105rl for june 3rd.
yankees a close second at -180

My site opened with LAD -190 and Yankees -180, so it's the Dodgers for Wednesday . . . a C wager.

coreygman · 06-03-09, 09:34 AM

Per Covers.com its the Dodgers today

Here is what my book reads right now, getting it at +105 How you guys looking?

LOS BILLNGSLEY-R -200 -1½ +105

Risking 90 to win 95. 3rd day of the chase

do5000 · 06-03-09, 12:02 PM

ive got one showing +105 and one showing -105.

jamesrg · 06-03-09, 04:20 PM

I'm on L.A. too

Glad to see we're all on the same page for a change....LOL

rogerc · 06-03-09, 07:43 PM

It LA for me too.

Vincepcion · 06-03-09, 11:28 PM

Not sure if LAD can score another run, but tomorrow we're backing CC Sabathia and the Yanks

EDIT: It's CC or Wang...if Wang then the play will be STL (Carpenter) or HOU (Wandy Rod)

corona · 06-04-09, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by Vincepcion

Not sure if LAD can score another run, but tomorrow we're backing CC Sabathia and the Yanks

EDIT: It's CC or Wang...if Wang then the play will be STL (Carpenter) or HOU (Wandy Rod)

cardinals opened at -162
astros -164
rays -164

Vincepcion · 06-04-09, 01:19 AM

Meh I thought we were now using SBRlines, which had STL and HOU both opening at -175

I'll wait to see what the consensus is but lets hope to cash

EDIT: Wang is pitching for the Yanks so they definitely wont be the play

aneurysm00 · 06-04-09, 04:47 AM

Definitely not going to play Wang for a D bet here.

Vincepcion · 06-04-09, 05:37 AM

I say the Astros should be the play, theres a few things going for us

- Total is higher than STL, though same as TB
- They are on a 4 game winning streak, as opposed to Colorado who is on a 4 game losing streak
- Astros are 10-2 vs. the NL West
- Wandy is a stud at home

I know this system doesnt need capping, but on SBR they opened at the same line as STL, and as corona posted, they opened at the same number as TB. This is just my opinion let me know what you guys think.

floridagolfer · 06-04-09, 05:57 AM

Thursday is going to be one of those days where the plays are all over the board. The "system" says to go with the highest opening line, but as everyone can plainly see, the Yankees opened at -230 with Sabathia, but now they're down to about -165 with Wang. Clearly going with the Yanks regardless of the schedule starter is a shot in the dark.

Houston, St. Louis, the White Sox and Tampa Bay all opened in the vicinity of -165.

As for me, I'm going with the current highest ML, which is St. Louis (-180). Good luck to everyone regardless of how you arrive at your selection.

Vincepcion · 06-04-09, 07:26 AM

TB also attractive as all of their wins except for 2 have been by 2 or more runs

I will go with the SBR consensus, I hope people start posting lol

do5000 · 06-04-09, 07:51 AM

i agree with all the skepticism on the NYY, but the system has been tested and there was never a mention of switching teams. i'm assuming over 10 years this exact situation has happened many times.
since its been successful regardless of what happens after the opening lines are posted, im going to stick with NYY.
i have zero confidence in them, but i feel if i start to stray from the system, im no longer following it properly.
i will stay with they yanks and hope they play well.

gl to everybody today, no matter who youre on.

swede71 · 06-04-09, 08:00 AM

I will go for Astros..I follow the system with SBR Live odds and Astros have a higher total than St Louis..

I use the same way to pick my games everyday with this system..I don't change the way I pick the team because some other teams looks more good..

The opening line is based on starting pitcher.Nyy have change pitcher so for me they are not the haviest favorite anymore

GGPLAYER · 06-04-09, 08:04 AM

Throwing out the Yanks due to pitching change I have Hou and StL both opening up at -175. I have only been doing this for a about 2 weeks but I believe the tie breaker is the O/U on runs. Hou is at 8.5 and StL is 7. Hou is the play for today.

GGPLAYER · 06-04-09, 08:06 AM

Originally posted by do5000

i agree with all the skepticism on the NYY, but the system has been tested and there was never a mention of switching teams. i'm assuming over 10 years this exact situation has happened many times.
since its been successful regardless of what happens after the opening lines are posted, im going to stick with NYY.
i have zero confidence in them, but i feel if i start to stray from the system, im no longer following it properly.
i will stay with they yanks and hope they play well.

gl to everybody today, no matter who youre on.

I see what your saying but that opening line was based on CC starting. So I do think you have to take that into consideration.

coreygman · 06-04-09, 08:21 AM

Guys, yes we need to drop the yanks, as the play today per this statement on when the lines came out...

Yankees staff ace CC Sabathia(notes) was originally scheduled to start Thursday, but he’s been given an extra day off, which allows Wang (0-3, 16.07 ERA) to get back in the rotation.

check out the drop
06/03/09 4:33:20 PM -230
06/03/09 5:43:18 PM -154

coreygman · 06-04-09, 08:24 AM

So after the Yanks drop we have a tie in opening lines on covers.com

Houston and Colorado and KC and Tampa both opened at -164

coreygman · 06-04-09, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by do5000

i agree with all the skepticism on the NYY, but the system has been tested and there was never a mention of switching teams. i'm assuming over 10 years this exact situation has happened many times.
since its been successful regardless of what happens after the opening lines are posted, im going to stick with NYY.
i have zero confidence in them, but i feel if i start to stray from the system, im no longer following it properly.
i will stay with they yanks and hope they play well.

gl to everybody today, no matter who youre on.

Hey buddy, for this case, I would look at switching as the line opened up when they thought CC was pitching and not Wang. You can see it dropped almost a 100 points

coreygman · 06-04-09, 08:30 AM

I like the idea that a few people posted, and what we used last time we had a tie, we took the one with the higher over under. Worked for us last time.

Jun 04 959 COL J HAMMEL -R +150 o8½-120 +1½-140
8:05 PM 960 HOU W RODRIGEZ-L -170 u8½EV -1½+120

Jun 04 975 KAN G MECHE -R +150 o8½EV +1½-145
4:05 PM 976 TAM J SHIELDS -R -170 u8½-120 -1½+125

Figures they have the same over/under too. lol

Vincepcion · 06-04-09, 08:32 AM

Since the price is higher on the COL/HOU OVER does that mean they are the play?

ploben · 06-04-09, 08:39 AM

Because the totals are the same, should we look at who has the bigger "favorite" line for the RL?

do5000 · 06-04-09, 08:39 AM

hey corey,
i understand what everybody is saying, but if the line had dropped 50 points or 60 points, would we still be having this discussion? What if the line had dropped from -230 to -190 and then gone further to -170 (or gone back up to -215)?
this one seems easy as wang is a disaster and the drop was massive. but if the change was smaller, it would be a tough call. the point of the system is that there is no "call". its opening line and thats it.

also, if the NYY game had been a 7:00pm start (or later) and the HOU/COL/KC/TB games were at afternoon games, what would happen if the pitching change was made after 1:00?
we would all have bet the yankess and it would be too late to go to the next best game since it would have already started,

im not trying to start trouble and im trying to decide based on all factors, but either the system goes by opening lines, or it doesnt.
as far as i know when it was tested (dont remember if it was by bettorbob, SIP or jello) the only restrictions put in were biggest opening ML fav.

i'll back off on this and let the board come to a decision and ill go through it all and see what works for me.
i might consider not playing today.
no matter what happens, gl to everybody and lets hope everybody picks a winner.

GGPLAYER · 06-04-09, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by coreygman

So after the Yanks drop we have a tie in opening lines on covers.com

Houston and Colorado and KC and Tampa both opened at -164

How can Covers and SBR opening lines be so different? I always look at SBR and the highest opening lines after NYY were STL and Hou at -175. TB opened at -165.

Tough call here. Hou owns Col and is going for a 4 game sweep at home. TB owns KC this year and is going for a 3 game sweep. Hou pitcher is 4-1 and has a 3.35 ERA against Col. TB pitcher is 4-0 against KC with a 2.57 ERA.

Flip a coin.

GGPLAYER · 06-04-09, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by do5000

hey corey,
i understand what everybody is saying, but if the line had dropped 50 points or 60 points, would we still be having this discussion? What if the line had dropped from -230 to -190 and then gone further to -170 (or gone back up to -215)?
this one seems easy as wang is a disaster and the drop was massive. but if the change was smaller, it would be a tough call. the point of the system is that there is no "call". its opening line and thats it.

also, if the NYY game had been a 7:00pm start (or later) and the HOU/COL/KC/TB games were at afternoon games, what would happen if the pitching change was made after 1:00?
we would all have bet the yankess and it would be too late to go to the next best game since it would have already started,

im not trying to start trouble and im trying to decide based on all factors, but either the system goes by opening lines, or it doesnt.
as far as i know when it was tested (dont remember if it was by bettorbob, SIP or jello) the only restrictions put in were biggest opening ML fav.

i'll back off on this and let the board come to a decision and ill go through it all and see what works for me.
i might consider not playing today.
no matter what happens, gl to everybody and lets hope everybody picks a winner.

All valid points but none of that stuff happened so now we're talking about a lot of what if's. You have to take things as they come. My money will not be riding on the arm of Wang....TOO RISKY. They might win by 2 runs but I'm not taking the chance on a "D" bet. Remember if you skip today and the chosen team wins you will be chasing on the next day we will all be on game "A". You might end up going 2-3 more games before we see another winner.

coreygman · 06-04-09, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

How can Covers and SBR opening lines be so different? I always look at SBR and the highest opening lines after NYY were STL and Hou at -175. TB opened at -165.

Tough call here. Hou owns Col and is going for a 4 game sweep at home. TB owns KC this year and is going for a 3 game sweep. Hou pitcher is 4-1 and has a 3.35 ERA against Col. TB pitcher is 4-0 against KC with a 2.57 ERA.

Flip a coin.

ya good question there. I do like Wandy pictching.

coreygman · 06-04-09, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by do5000

hey corey,
i understand what everybody is saying, but if the line had dropped 50 points or 60 points, would we still be having this discussion? What if the line had dropped from -230 to -190 and then gone further to -170 (or gone back up to -215)?
this one seems easy as wang is a disaster and the drop was massive. but if the change was smaller, it would be a tough call. the point of the system is that there is no "call". its opening line and thats it.

also, if the NYY game had been a 7:00pm start (or later) and the HOU/COL/KC/TB games were at afternoon games, what would happen if the pitching change was made after 1:00?
we would all have bet the yankess and it would be too late to go to the next best game since it would have already started,

im not trying to start trouble and im trying to decide based on all factors, but either the system goes by opening lines, or it doesnt.
as far as i know when it was tested (dont remember if it was by bettorbob, SIP or jello) the only restrictions put in were biggest opening ML fav.

i'll back off on this and let the board come to a decision and ill go through it all and see what works for me.
i might consider not playing today.
no matter what happens, gl to everybody and lets hope everybody picks a winner.

Ya I see what you are saying too, but I would look at the line as the opening when Wang was announced as the starting pitcher, not CC.

GGPLAYER · 06-04-09, 11:09 AM

Well I'll put my flag in the ground and state I will play Hou today based on the opening lines I saw and the fact that they have the higher o/u number than StL.

Hou -1.5 +125

coreygman · 06-04-09, 11:17 AM

I am in for Hou also. The over under for the other game dropped and HOU stayed the same.

HOU W RODRIGEZ-L -165 -1½ +125

Risking 180 to win 225