System Integrity?

[shhhhh22]

yes, for those that may be confused, on days with a tie... like today... TB is the play because they have the highest total.

The thinking being more points scored.... our team favored.... easier to cover. This is how I play it, BOL to all!!

[shhhhh22]

I thought the first game of the day started at one o'clock....My bad


I see the Red Sox are +120 on the run line and therefore they would be the play out of all the games that are left


Was Tampa a bigger favorite than that ?

Please re-read the thread to fully understand system. its based on biggest MONEYLINE OPENING LINE FAVORITE.

[jamesrg]

I've read most of it and the biggest run line favorite is what it's based on ...Look at the results posted on the first page of the thread.

I guess i'll take a closer look but i'm pretty sure i'm right

[do5000]

the first page does say biggest fav of the day, but those numbers change over the day.
so its impossible to test because you dont know when the bet was placed.

the only way to test it by opening or closing lines.
this system was tested by opening lines.

[Slanina]

So, what's your dividing line as to what constitutes a number that would have been good enough to play on a full schedule of games and what doesn't? That's OK, you don't need to answer; there's no way to create such a number. Each person has to decide for themself. My point is, we're trying to adhere to a "system" that doesn't appear to have hard and fast rules to cover all kinds of possible situations.

I don't have a dividing line. But that one day it was because he was pitchign and the ML was around where it wouldve been if there was a full schedule that day. Otherwise, I wouldn't have bothered that day either. But each person plays the system their own way. I just think today would be more capping than going by the system. I have no problem skipping 1 day out of 4 months because of lines like this. I notice some people are going forward with the system today and I wish them the best of luck.

[Slanina]

I've read most of it and the biggest run line favorite is what it's based on ...Look at the results posted on the first page of the thread.

I guess i'll take a closer look but i'm pretty sure i'm right

You don't go by the biggest runline favorite. You go by the biggest Moneyline favorite of the day and then you bet on that team but with the runline.

[do5000]

looks like it may be rained out for TB/CLE.
if it is i'll take CHC tonight.

[jamesrg]

Well i cashed the Red Sox thinking it was the right play


I'll be on the same page with you guys again tomorrow.

[rogerc]

Well i cashed the Red Sox thinking it was the right play


I'll be on the same page with you guys again tomorrow.

Well at least you picked the right one..

Small chance I may go with the CHC tonight .... just hard to bet against the Dodgers at this point in time.

Roger

[jcygts6]

so what is the play tomarrow??

[do5000]

should be NYM for tomorrow

[jakeandba]

i have the angels as the biggest ml fav at -185 so they should be the play?

[ploben]

NYM opened -175
LAA opened -170

I actually like NYM in this position. Rookie pitcher, Han Ram questionable, and the Mets are trying to split the 4-game series.

[shhhhh22]

NYM opened -175
LAA opened -170

I actually like NYM in this position. Rookie pitcher, Han Ram questionable, and the Mets are trying to split the 4-game series.

Agree. Mets are the play. Kinda pissed about that TB game. Rain delay fvcked us in that one I think.

Tomorrow: Mets RL -1.5 +115

[rogerc]

To be consistent what sportsbook are you guys using for your opening line so that I am on the same page/
Also do you use this particular sportsbook to place your bets on the run line?
Thanks
roger

[shhhhh22]

Originally I was using Covers.com as was mentioned earlier in this thread... but now I just use the SBR Live odds. It's so much easier to follow and get your info. Opening lines are along the left hand side.

[bsebal7]

Hey all.....it's amazing to see how far this thread has come since I first posted the system to check on its integrity!!! Thanks to everybody who has kept it going and done all the research to validate the numbers....Let's keep it going!!!

[swede71]

I'm using SBR Live odds so the play for me is NYM

[ploben]

Well I was clearly looking at wrong data when I spoke about splitting the 4-game series with the fish...seeing the Mets had a day off yesterday and their last series was with the Nats. So scratch that point from the list but I still like them in this position with the rookie from FLA pitching.

Anyone here any news about possible migrains for Pelfrey? Can't find anything on it anywhere except for the injury report from SBR.

[GGPLAYER]

Well I was clearly looking at wrong data when I spoke about splitting the 4-game series with the fish...seeing the Mets had a day off yesterday and their last series was with the Nats. So scratch that point from the list but I still like them in this position with the rookie from FLA pitching.

Anyone here any news about possible migrains for Pelfrey? Can't find anything on it anywhere except for the injury report from SBR.

Some confirmation on that would be great if anyone knows or reads something more about it. I'm assuming if he can't go than LAA would become the bet for today.

One interesting note is that Pelfrey is terrible against Fla. I guess the rookie pitcher for Fla was the reason behind such a high opening line.

From CBS Sportsline.com "The Mets, who have lost Pelfrey's last seven starts versus the Marlins, try to end that streak Friday night in the opener of a three-game home series."

[ploben]

Spelled "here" wrong...rough morning

I checked up about 5 different sites and found nothing about Pelfrey today. I think he is good to go.

Interesting movement on this NYM line. ML seems to be generating alot of doubters and is falling while the RL is at about +120 to +125. Seems like the books are very unsure and would rather have people on the RL by offering a marginal RL for the Mets.

Might hold out on this one as +125 seems low for the way the ML is moving.

[coreygman]

To be consistent what sportsbook are you guys using for your opening line so that I am on the same page/
Also do you use this particular sportsbook to place your bets on the run line?
Thanks
roger

I am using covers, and the play is the mets today as they opened at -175


covers.com/sports/mlb/mlb_lines.aspx?t=0

[coreygman]

Here is my line on the Mets. Booked!


NYM M PELFREY -R -175 -1½ +120
Risking 45 to win 54

Day 2 of chase

[do5000]

corey, are you on your A or B bet?
I'm on B since i lost with TB last night.

[coreygman]

corey, are you on your A or B bet?
I'm on B since i lost with TB last night.

Oh I am on my B bet or Day 2 of the chase, I lost last night with them also. I will fix my typo above. Thanks!

GL to all playing!

[do5000]

lol! sorry to bring you down...

i thought we were both on TB, just making sure.

[jamesrg]

Oh I am on my B bet or Day 2 of the chase, I lost last night with them also. I will fix my typo above. Thanks!

GL to all playing!

Why do you guys use the ml favorite instead of the rl favorite ?


I mean we are using the rl right ?

[coreygman]

Why do you guys use the ml favorite instead of the rl favorite ?


I mean we are using the rl right ?

Our bet goes with the biggest fav on the Money Line. The Bet is placed on the Run Line.

So each day we check out the opening lines on covers.com or whatever book you use, and find the biggest fav of the day. We bet on the run line, because if they are the biggest fav of the day, they have a good chance to win by 2 runs or more. Get it? Better odds on the Run Line then the money line by far.

[do5000]

no, we are using the ML favorite but betting that team on the RL.

[Slanina]

Why do you guys use the ml favorite instead of the rl favorite ?


I mean we are using the rl right ?

Because we want the biggest favorite of the day. And that is what the moneyline means. Once that is found we take that team but bet the runline. We bet the runline because of the juice.

[jamesrg]

Our bet goes with the biggest fav on the Money Line. The Bet is placed on the Run Line.

So each day we check out the opening lines on covers.com or whatever book you use, and find the biggest fav of the day. We bet on the run line, because if they are the biggest fav of the day, they have a good chance to win by 2 runs or more. Get it? Better odds on the Run Line then the money line by far.

I completely understand

But if we're using the run line why not take the biggest run line favorite.....I mean the run line has it's own set of odds too. Why not use it ???

[coreygman]

Ok guys, a few pages back we were talking about our stats and bets until now. I have a screen shot of all my bets, and which games I betted on. As you can see I started April 13th, 2009. I have bet 1 game each day, which was the biggest Money Line Favorite. I have placed 46 bets not including today, since they game has not taken place yet. I have won 22 of those bets and lost 23 of those bets. 1 bet was a postponement so that = 46 bets, which is the total number of days bets could have been placed since April 13th.

By the rules of this system, you bet one game a day on the biggest Money Line Favorite. Thats what I have done so far, and I am up currently up $524.00. I started by doing $30.00 bets per day, but I have now switched that up, and I start the first day of chase with $30.00 and then switched to $15 each day after.

2009 MLB CHASE SYSTEM Current Stats (through May 28th, 2009)
Day started: April 13th, 2009
Number of Days: 46
Wins: 22
Loses: 23
Postpones: 1
Profit: $524.00
Record: 22-0
Overall Record: 22-23


So assuming it was even juice each day, my 6 days of the chase would look like this.

Day 1: $30
Day 2: $45
Day 3: $90
Day 4: $180
Day 5: $360
Day 6: $720

[do5000]

great stuff corey!

cant argue with those numbers.

[ploben]

The system has been very good to us.

It seems like June might be a good month to bump those chase amount up, maybe taper off in July, and then hit it hard in August.

I really like the idea of tapering off the chase amounts as the chase goes on (winning on games 1 and 2). Chase like $20 in game 1, $15 in game 2, then $10 the rest of the way out.

[Jambruins]

Corey,
Do I have this right? I now you are now switching to only a half a unit after the first bet but would this be right for how you were originally doing it?

1st bet
Bet to win 1 unit if betting a - line (-110, -120, etc)
or
Risk 1 unit if betting a + line (+110, +120, etc.)

2nd Bet
Bet to win 1 unit + amount risked on 1st bet if betting a - line (-110, -120, etc.)
Risk 1 units + amount risked on 1st bet if betting a + line (110, 120, etc.)

3rd Bet
Bet to win 1 unit + amount risked on bet 1 and 2 if betting a - line (-110, -120, etc.)
Risk 1 unit + amount risked on bet 1 and 2 if betting a + line (110, 120, etc.)

Do I have this right? Thanks.