System Integrity?

alukk · 04-03-09, 10:52 PM

looks interesting

bsebal7 · 04-03-09, 11:07 PM

alukk

That's kinda what I thought....although I don't have a database to backtrack it to find out if its legit or not. Thought about just doing a 25/50/100...etc. chase on it to make a little or lose a lot chase on it.

seanjohn007 · 04-04-09, 03:51 AM

y is there such a big difference between the number of plays in those two years??

jellobiafra · 04-04-09, 11:52 PM

I might actually test this with $2 opening bets to start. I'm a sucker for systems and this one has got me intrigued.

ScreaminPain · 04-05-09, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by bsebal7

Runline Chase: play the biggest favorite on the board daily, on the runline and continue to play them for 6 days or until a Win is achieved. Once a win is achieved the Chase is over and a new one starts the next day, so only one play per day here. In other words, the biggest favorite on the board must win by 2 or more runs, once every 6 days.

here are the records.

2007: 95-0

2008: 16-0

combined (111-0) heading into tonight.

I'm also intrigued with the possibilities with this method. For one thing, there must be some error in the "results" from the past 2 yrs. I doubt the disparity would be so great from year to year.

I have records of all the teams streaks from '08, but I can't find the Run Line's anywhere. Most of the reliable baseball stats sites don't carry gambling info. Covers and Vegasinsider can go back for testing, but it's by a day-to-day basis, which would take a loooooong time to compile.

Isn't there ANYWHERE that has daily spread records from past years?????

jellobiafra · 04-05-09, 01:09 PM

Yeah. Back testing this would be a bitch and I'm way too busy....alright - lazy. I think maybe we should just chart it here for the first few weeks and see how it looks. This could have potential to be nice or it could blow up in your face. If they are consistently hitting every 3nd or 4th game it might be worth playing. I don't know if I'd wanna take it out to 6 games though.

Actually the best way to play it might be to track it and then get on it after it's already down 2 or 3 losses in a row. Lot less opportunities but probably a much higher strike rate.

Smogs · 04-05-09, 01:21 PM

Yeh that's a good shout jello, i may wait for the 4th or even 5th game and even if it only happens 5 times in the season the chances will be a lot nearer 100% if the system is correct. Just one thought on it, when they say play the big fav 6 games i a row, do they mean the big fav of the day or the same team from day 1 until they cash? i.e atlanta for 6 games or the big fav of the day no matter who that team is?

jellobiafra · 04-05-09, 02:24 PM

I think it's the biggest favorite on the board. I wouldn't want to get stuck riding one cold team. This passes the smell test because it seems a likelihood that the biggest favorite on the board any given day is going to win by at least 2 runs once a week. That's the basis of this play.

ScreaminPain · 04-05-09, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

I think it's the biggest favorite on the board. I wouldn't want to get stuck riding one cold team. This passes the smell test because it seems a likelihood that the biggest favorite on the board any given day is going to win by at least 2 runs once a week. That's the basis of this play.

OK....standby...I'm goin' in....

I'll back test 2008, but it will be several hours work unless someone can identify a site that has run lines from last year. For some reason I think this can work out and here is why.

I can verify that the top 10 teams will win 58% of their games by 2 runs or more. Obviously, if we're getting + money on runlines and winning at a + rate, then the outcome is certain.....still grinding!

jellobiafra · 04-05-09, 09:15 PM

I know covers lists all results and the line on each teams page. You have to go the previous 10 games section and then click previous results. It'll bring up the entire season. There's a drop down for every season back to '98. I know this because I was backtracking a possible over chase but it didn't work out. All I could manage out of it was that there's a strong probability ~55% of all under streaks end after 2 games and 70% will end after 3. Not much better than a coin toss when you break it down. A little better on that after 2 games...but not much. With the right filters it might lead to some higher percentage plays though.....

I don't know if you can find that same information listed on a daily basis rather than a team by team. Team by team it's going to be tough. You could maybe just go through each team and record their results from anything -200 and over. Then figure out a percentage of 2 run wins and we could have a little something to base this on.

DukeJohn · 04-06-09, 12:21 AM

Until someone runs a check for you, there is aways the archived lines at the Vegas Insider... They use Vegas books though, but still gives you archived opening lines for the run line and money line... Might have to scroll down a bit and the format is not flashy...

Here is the link for 04/02/06, you have to scroll down for the 04.03.06 opening run lines and money lines:

HugeDomains.com

http://www.dbcsports.com/pastscores/psvi/scoreodds/pastscores2.asp?cmonth=04&cyear=2006&amonth=05&adate=01&ayear=2007

onlooker · 04-06-09, 12:27 AM

Wow. 111-0 the last two years. We will all be rich after this season.

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 08:24 AM

Well let's start charting this for now.

thebestthereis · 04-06-09, 09:36 AM

What about largest road favorite? 2 schools of thought here. 1) Likely to get better odds on the run line. 2) Game ends when home team wins by 1 and that is a loss even though they won. Road team keeps scoring no matter what so they can get a 2+ run lead. Only downside is home team gets last AB always.

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 09:59 AM

Good points... even though logically point 1 and point 2 would seem to be in contrast. You think we'd get better odds as a road fav but you think the chances of winning are higher on the road than at home.

We can track it both ways, though. Today the pick would be the Yankees either way playing in Baltimore.

ScreaminPain · 04-06-09, 10:40 AM

Results

First, let me preface this with a disclaimer as to EXACT accuracy.

I've gone thru 2008 from May 1st thru Aug. 31st. I used opening lines and rounded to the dollar. In 2 instances the game that included "largest favorite" for that day was postponed due to weather, so I used the 2nd largest fav.

Results were 121 plays
1 6-game chase
1 5-game chase
6 4-game chases
7 3-game chases
**- the rest were either 1 or 2 game chases.

Aug. 31st ended up +65.6 units

Some interesting facts. During entire mo. of Aug. you had to lay odds on the run line....in one case -155 (yikes). In the month of May only 9 plays were at (-) money with the largest lay being -115 twice. Aug. had NO chases longer than 2 games.

Inherent with chases, is the fact you'll need to lay a big number to get back previous losses. The largest amount needed was for the single 6 game chase in July. If you were using $10 units, a lay of $327 was required......figure your own value if you chose different units.

It's apparent that this method will work, but of course, ALL chases will work if you have the bankroll. I guess it's up to individual preferences to determine if the reward is worth the risk.

This was a pain in the butt to compile, however it may answer some questions. As always, good luck with you action.

thebestthereis · 04-06-09, 10:48 AM

The $10 units you are talking about...does that mean for the 65.6 units that were made you'd have $650.60? Each win for for $10 then you started the series over? Thanks.

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 10:56 AM

Holy crap those are good numbers man. Are you saying that there were ZERO losses last season?

Thanks for doing the legwork here.

ScreaminPain · 04-06-09, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

The $10 units you are talking about...does that mean for the 65.6 units that were made you'd have $650.60? Each win for for $10 then you started the series over? Thanks.

Yes! +65.6 units, +650.00
Yes! I started each chase with a $10 wager for simplicity's sake.

ScreaminPain · 04-06-09, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Holy crap those are good numbers man. Are you saying that there were ZERO losses last season?

Thanks for doing the legwork here.

Yes! there were ZERO losses if you count this as a 6-game chase method.

DukeJohn · 04-06-09, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by ScreaminPain

Aug. 31st ended up +65.6 units

If you were using $10 units, a lay of $327 was required......

That is a little scary... I am guessing you are saying the 6th bet required you to put down $327. Which means if you lost you would have lost around $654... That means you just lost 65.4 units... That would not be happy... But the magical number of 6 prevailed and you didn't lose. Like I said, scary...

Good Job on all the work though, there may be some further hidden value in it...

Thanks again for taking the time and posting your results...

do5000 · 04-06-09, 11:58 AM

Hate to be the stoopid noob, but i only bet football.
is a chase like a progressive?
$10 on game 1, if i lose $20 on game2, if i lose $40 on game 3...?
or do i need to adjust each bet based on that games odds and the amount i lost last time?

Just trying to figure out how to calculate the numbers.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 12:02 PM

I'm wondering if it wouldn't be easier on your heart to just run this as a 3 or 4 game chase. You would have had two losses last year, but I wouldn't feel comfortable taking it much further than that.

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 12:11 PM

Alright.... I'm dipping my toe in the water. Chasing $5 units. Laying $6.15 on the Yankees today. If it loses I'll lay whatever it takes to win $11.15 tomorrow and so on. I'll take it out to 4 games for now.

DukeJohn · 04-06-09, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by do5000

Hate to be the stoopid noob, but i only bet football.
is a chase like a progressive?
$10 on game 1, if i lose $20 on game2, if i lose $40 on game 3...?
or do i need to adjust each bet based on that games odds and the amount i lost last time?

Just trying to figure out how to calculate the numbers.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Well it is a Progression Bet meaning it is a system that bets and moves forward based on a specific formula, however it is a chase - progression. Meaning it only progresses if you lose and thus bet an amount to cover your loss. So, it is a Chase - Progression style of betting...

Yes, you "double up" your bets each time, but with MLB runlines of -1.5 sometimes you get a +125 or so line, so you wouldn't need as much money per se to win the money lost from the previous bet...

I hope I made it clear enough...

Best of Luck (BOL)

do5000 · 04-06-09, 12:23 PM

Hi Duke,

thanks for the help!
Do you double your bet to cover the previous loss? or to make a % or profit despite that loss?

If i bet $10 and lose, should I be betting enough the next game to break even exactly (and then start over)?

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 01:08 PM

Like I said in post #25 - I'm laying $6.15 to win $5.00. If I lose, tomorrow I will bet whatever amount necessary to win $11.15 - the total of the $6.15 wager and the $5.00 I am chasing. If that loses the next day I will bet the whatever it takes to win the amount bet the previous days plus the original $5.oo I am chasing.

BTW, this is sort of a beta testing of this system. None of us are really sure about it's outcome so I would caution against betting any serious money on it just yet. That's why I'm starting with a $5 chase. Very little risk.

do5000 · 04-06-09, 01:14 PM

Hi Jello,

thanks for your advice.

If i wanted to play it safe(r), do you think it would make sense to try this but only start after the day's biggest favorite loses?
Meaning I'd be starting the chase on day 2 instead of 1.
I'm guessing if i started at day #2 (or even #3) it would be much safer but also much less likely to occur.

ScreaminPain · 04-06-09, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by do5000

Hi Jello,

thanks for your advice.

If i wanted to play it safe(r), do you think it would make sense to try this but only start after the day's biggest favorite loses?
Meaning I'd be starting the chase on day 2 instead of 1.
I'm guessing if i started at day #2 (or even #3) it would be much safer but also much less likely to occur.

I think you're missing the point here. The basic premise is "can the biggest favorite of the day lose 6 games in a row?"

The short answer is NO! At least in the test period of 2008.

It wouldn't make any difference at which point you jumped into the sequence.......starting later would simply reduce your overall winnings. As long as the basic premise holds true the MORE wagers you make the more you'll eventually win.

Winning sequeces include:
1 10-gm winning streak
1 9-gm
1 7-gm
1 6-gm
1 5-gm
4 3-gm

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 02:20 PM

Screamin -

The more I'm seeing of these numbers, the more I'm liking it. Thanks again.

As for jumping into this 2 or 3 games into a losing streak, I had similar thoughts but I think you are correct here. You either do this or you don't on these kind of systems. If you jump in late you miss out on most of the profits really. From your original post on the numbers, it looks like a large perecentage of these chases end after 1 or 2 games.

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 02:24 PM

Hey Screamin --

What was the overall W-L record of these plays (if it's not too much trouble)?

do5000 · 04-06-09, 02:44 PM

Hi Guys,

Thanks for all your help, its much appreciated.

This system only applies to runline, correct? So they have to win by 2 or more?

Would buying the 0.5 point be worthwhile?
So if its favorite -1 instead of -1.5, you still win if the favorite covers, but you push if they only win by one.
Its a lower payout, but it might extend the "streak" since winning by 1 would be considered a loss normally.

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 03:34 PM

I wouldn't recommend it. You're paying more juice on the games you lose, which means you've gotta bet more on the next game....which increases exponentially as the chase progresses. I would say if you are going to do this just leave it like it is. Screamin has already shown that it suffered zero losses last year. What more can you ask for? I realize you want to minimize risk, but you sacrifice profits that way.

Again, I can't stress enough that this is still in trial mode here. I'm chasing $5.00 - more out of curiosity than anything else - and don't plan to chase past 4 bets. I would recommend extreme caution with this until we get a better feel for it's reasonable expectations.

NOPHUN · 04-06-09, 04:59 PM

OK boys.. after reading these 34 posts... you guys have me ready to make some $$... count me in for $20 to start... lets make it happen...