System Integrity?

[el jefe]

White Sox -191
Dodgers -184
Pinnacle

[shhhhh22]

White Sox -191
Dodgers -184
Pinnacle

current lines don't matter this is based off of OPENING LINES.

[el jefe]

Those were opening odds for Pinnacle. Sorry, White Sox opened at -164

[shhhhh22]

use covers.com for opening lines...

white sox: -165
Dodgers: -200

[coreygman]

Looks like we are on the Dodger Billingsley train!


LOS BILLNGSLEY-R -200 1½ +105

[billdo75]

I got in at -185/+120. Let's see this chase end today...

[Panekkkk]

Is the system really to go with opening lines? Did whoever backcheck this use opening or closing lines?

[Jacey]

I think when the lines are the same, you need to go by the biggest difference in pitcher ERA. Also a o/u filter might help, play no game with an o/u of 8 or lower

[Vincepcion]

Looks like we go on to the D bet unless a comeback

[jcygts6]

damn Dodgers seriously bloooww c**k, guess we need to go for the NYM -1.5 tomarrow.

[corona]

comeback time.

men on 2nd & 3rd, down 1, 1 out, bottom 8. got a chance here.

edit: bases loaded.

edit: hell

[jcygts6]

tooo bad dodgers suck bleeew Kock again!! FCUK

[ploben]

Hey hey to everyone! Just got back today from the cruise. Catch me up to speed.

[Vincepcion]

Good time to be away. We go to the D bet tomorrow

[MJoy]

why would it be the NYM? i see the cubs opening at -180 also???

[jellobiafra]

Gents...

Looks like tomorrow is the perfect time to jump into this so I'm coming back in. Looks like the Cubs and the NYM both opened as equal favorites tomorrow.

My thinking on this -

The Mets have injury issues with Delgado DL'd and Reyes and Church questionable. They have a matchup tomorrow with the Nats though and that bullpen is full of gascans. Lannan is pitching, and while he's their best option imo, the Mets hit lefties pretty well.

The Cubs on the other hand have lost 7 straight now and have managed to score just 5 runs in their last 6 games. Those are some ice cold bats. Now of course they could bust out tomorrow and the Pirates coming into Wrigley might be just what the doctor ordered. Malholm is no joke though, he's a capable pitcher and Dempster is no ace.

I'm kind of torn here, but having to choose I would favor the Mets. Yeah, they have injuries to key players but they've still exhibited the ability to score runs lately. The Cubs haven't . I don't think backing a cold lineup is the smart move with this system. I'm going to leave it up to whoever is running the show here now, but that's my perspective on the game tomorrow.

[shhhhh22]

I like your thinking Jello... but I think we need to wait to see what he total is going to be for the cubs. I show mets at +/-9. Once the line comes in for the cubs. we take the team with the higher totals. Thats just my thinking... interested in your thoughts.

[jellobiafra]

If that's the way you've been doing it then I'm cool with that. I'm not coming in here to start making any decisions again. That's part of the reason I got out of this in the first place. You guys have it wired now, so just tell me where to go and I'll follow.

[jellobiafra]

I do have one question though, why aren't you just using the opening consensus from the live odds link up top? It might be the same as covers, I don't know. It shows both the Cubs and Mets -180. All the way to the left lists the opening lines for all games.

http://www.sbrodds.com/#/odds/baseball/game/money-line.html

[BTTNext]

Strong lean towards NYM, based on a subjective view. If anyone can bring objective figures I'd be much happier

[shhhhh22]

I do have one question though, why aren't you just using the opening consensus from the live odds link up top? It might be the same as covers, I don't know. It shows both the Cubs and Mets -180. All the way to the left lists the opening lines for all games.

http://www.sbrodds.com/#/odds/baseba...oney-line.html

No real reason. lol. I just saw covers mentioned several times in this thread and wanted to stay as true to the original system as possible, it always the subjective make inferences for yourself stuff that ruins good systems beyond recognition.

Everyone has a lean here a lean there. but IMHO numbers are solid. so I go with O/U, if thats high means the books expect bats to be swinging.

[jellobiafra]

What do we do when that Cubs total is released at o/u 9? Seems about right. I'm hoping for 8.5 so we can have no argument over taking the Mets.


EDIT:

And I'm pretty certain it's the same opening lines. The page here at SBR is way easier to read though. Much more user friendly too.

[Slanina]

Wow, a game 4 tomorrow? I haven't done the system in almost two weeks besides one time. Which appears to be the last win it had. The boston game. But I'm jumping back in starting tomorrow. I hope it wins not because of my 1 unit bet. But I don't want to see my fellow system bettors take a hit like that. Plus the flamers will flock to this thread if it keeps losing.

[shhhhh22]

Gotta be honest Jello... then I have no idea. people before had said in that case make the first game of day the "D" bet in this case and the 2nd game either "A" or "E", but that won't work here as I think these games will overlap.

This is not something i recall coming across in reading this thread. so if anyone does know... please share!

[jellobiafra]

My thoughts on that --

Has anyone previously suggested going with the worst of the two run line odds in situations where the money line favorite is a tie? It just seems that if one run line is -105 and the other is -110, the books believe that there is a slightly higher chance of the -110 line being a winning bet. Hence the higher juice and attempt to deter bettors from playing it. I don't know, but somehow I doubt that we have to worry much about trap lines or reverse line movement on the run line. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

Not that it means that game is more likely to be the winner, but it just seems like if the book is encouraging us even in the slightest bit to avoid playing one game in relation to another, then we should probably take the game they would rather we didn't...according to the line they've set for it.

[trinitiy]

Cubs r cold as fuk and r swinging at everything , poping out fly balls all over the place. Yea they might win 2morrow by more then one run but no way im gonna chance that the way they r hitting. Logic says play the Mets who r at least putting runs on the board, playing the shitty Nats. If i lose at least i know i made the right choice.

Mets -1.5 , BOOK IT~!

[shhhhh22]

That makes sense... so if that's the case, The play would be Cubs -1.5 +115?

[aneurysm00]

I'm going for the Mets as well. This time, the straight up losses haven't shielded me from the insurance provided by the -1 RL, so possibly a 8 unit play for me.

[Vincepcion]

Cubs r cold as fuk and r swinging at everything , poping out fly balls all over the place. Yea they might win 2morrow by more then one run but no way im gonna chance that the way they r hitting. Logic says play the Mets who r at least putting runs on the board, playing the shitty Nats. If i lose at least i know i made the right choice.

Mets -1.5 , BOOK IT~!

This is pretty much my thoughts. I hate backing the Cubs here, with a capable pitcher in Maholm against them. Plus they are really cold.

On the other hand, we are facing the freaking Nationals...we should be jumping for joy here.

[do5000]

i hate using any personal opinion, totally defeats the point of a system. in this case it does seem like a necessary evil.
i'm leaning towards NYM as well, but im going to wait to see the total of the cubs game.

[kokky]

pinnacle lines:

atlanta ML -136(1.735) RL+121(2.21) total 8

mets ML-164(1.61) RL +130(2.30) total 9

This is odd. Mets are bigger favorites and have higher total, but atlanta has lower run line. Anyone knows why is that?
Why do you think that opening lines are better then closing ones?

I see there are many way how to use this system, some use opening lines, some closing, some ML lines, some RL lines, some look totals, others not, so I'm confused. What do you think about this? I won't look at opeing or closing lines, when I turn my computer on, I see who is bigest RL favorite in that moment and that is the play.

[jellobiafra]

When I was first involved in this system during the early days of the season, I made several posts about how I really didn't think it mattered what lines you used (open or close) or even whether you picked the biggest ML favorite or the 2nd or maybe even the 3rd.

The key point in this is to be consistent, and always use the same selection method no matter what. That's the only way you can keep an honest tally of a system's success or failure. You have to contnually pick the games the same way you have been picking them or it becomes a free for all like this thread had the potential to become early in the season. That's mostly why I decided to get out early on. Now I want to come back in because by this point you should have the system and selection process down to a science and I think 20+ unit profit is a good indication of the potential here.

Again, I'm expecting the Cubs total line to be released at o/u 9. Is there a consensus on how to handle that situation, where all else is equal? My suggestion would be go to the worst of the two run lines, assumption being that is the bigger favorite to win on the run line. Unfortunately if the Greek's lines are any indication that is going to be the Cubs today by a hair.

Any thought on splitting the bet in situations like this?



EDIT:

Just saw a stat in Chance Harper's article here that the Cubs have cashed the run line in 17 of 21 games where they've been favored. Something to think about.

[shhhhh22]

Wow, Cubs O/U 7.5. Looks like Mets are the play.

METS -1.5 +125

[do5000]

yeah, cubs at 7.5 seems to make it an easy NYM pick.

i think for future use i will go by highest total if the opening line is a tie. after that, we'll have to see....

ps ANOTHER late line posting for a cubs game.

[jellobiafra]

Wooo hoo!

By the way, the Cubs total and run line is always going to be posted late when they are at home. Especially the totals line. Gotta know which way the wind is going to be blowing in Wrigley. Just wait til later in the year. We'll see a couple 13-10 or 14-11 games there when the wind is blowing straight out to Waveland Ave at 30 MPH.


EDIT:

In fact, 7.5 tells me that there might be heavy winds blowing in today/tonight. I know the Cubs are cold, but these two pitchers don't deserve this low a number against anybody. If the weather isn't a factor, I might consider playing the over on that one as a side bet.