System Integrity?

GGPLAYER · 05-26-09, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by do5000

Welcome to all the new followers!

its a huge pain, but i strongly suggest re-reading the entire thread. i know its long but its well worth it as many of the same questions keep coming back every 7-8 pages.

there are many suggested variations, but so far the only tested system has been a 6 game chase chosen by the opening lines ONLY. Biggest fav on the ML. playing 6 days or start over.
the split bet (part on ML and part on RL) was suggested around pages 5-10 (i think) and only works with a -ML and a +RL. the same can be achieved by getting RL-1 if your book offers it, although you will need to risk more as the odds arent as profitable.

When you read it through, make sure to note what has been tested vs what people have suggested might work. doesnt mean they are wrong, just means they havent been proven right yet.

unless there is a tie in an opening line, there should be no confusion or discussion about which game to bet.

trust me, i'm dumber than all of you, and i figured it out eventually...

Thanks for taking the time to answer a few of our questions. I know this must get old every time a "newbie" like myself catches wind of this. I'll keep doubling back thru all the old threads as best I can and help anyone new that might come along. Seems pretty straight forward AS LONG as you stick to the guidelines. Thanks again guys and Go LAA!!

Slanina · 05-26-09, 11:33 PM

I wonder if the admins would lock this thread upon request and start a new one with all the rules on the first post. In order to prevent the newcomers asking the same questions. In no way am I complaining about the newcomers. I just think it would be a lot less congestion with the Q&A posts. And a link to that thread as the last post in this thread incase someone searches and finds the other one.

jellobiafra · 05-26-09, 11:43 PM

I hear you Slanina. Or we could all just be dicks and tell them to read through the thread. We put a lot of time into this thing at the beginning of the season trying to work out the kinks and the trouble spots. People backtested this and charted it out and came up with alternate betting structures (thanks again ScreaminPain...BettorBob). Now everybody just wants to pop in on the last page and have it all handed to them,

That's somewhat tongue in cheek, and somewhat not. The problem is some of these people are going to come in firing c-notes at this thing from jump and not realize they need to take it easy to start.... not realize how hard a 6th game is gonna put the screws to them. I mean, everything you could possibly want or need ot know about this system is written and described in detail through the first 8 or 9 pages of this thread. It would take a half hour to read it. I guess that's too much to expect people to exert of themselves though. They just want free money and they want the system spoonfed to them.

Yeah.... sorry if I come across as a dick to any newbies here, but you should have to work a little for this or you'll never understand the risk involved. It's definitely there. Beware. Don't say nobody warned you. It's all in the thread.

shhhhh22 · 05-26-09, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

I hear you Slanina. Or we could all just be dicks and tell them to read through the thread. We put a lot of time into this thing at the beginning of the season trying to work out the kinks and the trouble spots. People backtested this and charted it out and came up with alternate betting structures (thanks again ScreaminPain...BettorBob). Now everybody just wants to pop in on the last page and have it all handed to them,

That's somewhat tongue in cheek, and somewhat not. The problem is some of these people are going to come in firing c-notes at this thing from jump and not realize they need to take it easy to start.... not realize how hard a 6th game is gonna put the screws to them. I mean, everything you could possibly want or need ot know about this system is written and described in detail through the first 8 or 9 pages of this thread. It would take a half hour to read it. I guess that's too much to expect people to exert of themselves though. They just want free money and they want the system spoonfed to them.

Yeah.... sorry if I come across as a dick to any newbies here, but you should have to work a little for this or you'll never understand the risk involved. It's definitely there. Beware. Don't say nobody warned you. It's all in the thread.

I agree with you. I didn't show up till later the thread was 20some odd pages long, took me about an hour maybe a bit more to read through the whole thing, understand what the hell is going on. BEFORE I PUT MY MONEY IN. Some of the money management around these forums is frightening.

And you're right I gurantee we'll see the people who throw 1-2-300 on a chase and get creamed by game D, and say oh this fvcking system is a joke..

In stock trading the mantra is "don't invest in what you don't understand", well in gambling it should be "don't throw your money in a system you don't understand"

Sorry for the vent, but it needed to be said.

rogerc · 05-26-09, 11:56 PM

If I understand this correctly the lines for Wed show NYM Moneyline = -240 (wow) and the RunLine -1.5 at -130.
Therefore I should bet $31 to win $40.30 on the RL at -1.5 tomorrow since I lost $20 on the Angles on Tues so I am -$20.00
If this is not correct what is the bet?

I do appreciate everyone's help for all us newbies jumping on in the last couple of days.
I will be keeping a spreadsheet to share with everyone using $20 as the first unit of betting.
Anything else I can do to contribute to this let me know and I will pitch in.
Thanks
Roger

Vincepcion · 05-27-09, 04:57 AM

Originally posted by rogerc

If I understand this correctly the lines for Wed show NYM Moneyline = -240 (wow) and the RunLine -1.5 at -130.
Therefore I should bet $31 to win $40.30 on the RL at -1.5 tomorrow since I lost $20 on the Angles on Tues so I am -$20.00
If this is not correct what is the bet?

You should bet $52 to win $40 if you are looking at winning $20 per series.

ploben · 05-27-09, 07:11 AM

Hate what Santana did to the Red Sox this past weekend while I was away but hope he lays an ass whooping down on the Nats. Big time chalk @ -130.

GGPLAYER · 05-27-09, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by ploben

Hate what Santana did to the Red Sox this past weekend while I was away but hope he lays an ass whooping down on the Nats. Big time chalk @ -130.

Bookmaker is giving it at Even money right now. Probably better lines than that out there I imagine. Just an FYI if you have not placed your bet yet.

ploben · 05-27-09, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Bookmaker is giving it at Even money right now. Probably better lines than that out there I imagine. Just an FYI if you have not placed your bet yet.

Wow...I do not like the way that lined moved today. 95% of the action on the ML and it is already inflated to -260 and the RL goes backwards from -130 to EV. I think the books are really compensating for the banged up Mets. Funny to see such a heavy ML and RLM on the RL.

coreygman · 05-27-09, 12:18 PM

I am on the Mets!

NYM JO SANTANA -L -230 -1½-115

Risking 52 to win 45

GGPLAYER · 05-27-09, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by ploben

Wow...I do not like the way that lined moved today. 95% of the action on the ML and it is already inflated to -260 and the RL goes backwards from -130 to EV. I think the books are really compensating for the banged up Mets. Funny to see such a heavy ML and RLM on the RL.

Should be interesting.....half the team is on the DL and Santana typically does not get much run support. Well at least the bull pen is rested after Livan's CG last night. I'm hoping for a 3-1 NYM win.

ploben · 05-27-09, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

Should be interesting.....half the team is on the DL and Santana typically does not get much run support. Well at least the bull pen is rested after Livan's CG last night. I'm hoping for a 3-1 NYM win.

I dunno. Over 7 is the fav at -120. Vegas must know something we don't cause this Mets game's lines are doign wacky things...should be interesting

coreygman · 05-27-09, 09:13 PM

well so far so good guys, we are up 7-3 with the 9th inning to go! Is K-Rod back in now or is Putz closing now?

do5000 · 05-27-09, 09:34 PM

the NY mets are my favorite squadron

ploben · 05-27-09, 10:05 PM

If I was a betting man (

) I bet there will be a lot of discussion tomorrow on the pick. Short day of games and 3 teams opened @ -120

do5000 · 05-27-09, 10:10 PM

great point ploben.
and im guessing the cubs line will be posted late as usual.
if the cubs total is under 11 i'll go with TB

corona · 05-27-09, 11:21 PM

maybe split the A bet 3 ways. 0.33 units per team?

if all 3 teams cover, you move on to the A bet tomorrow.
2/3 teams cover, move on to A bet after winning 0.33 units
1/3 teams cover, B bet tomorrow, trying to win back 0.33 units + 1 more unit (1.33)
0/3 teams cover, B bet tomorrow to win 2 units.

or just dont play it, and look forward to friday.

shhhhh22 · 05-27-09, 11:43 PM

Ya do5000 you're correct. Hopefully the cubs total is under 11... then TB is the clear play

dbartinbwgc · 05-27-09, 11:52 PM

I need to stop watching and start betting this system.

Way to go on another win.

aneurysm00 · 05-28-09, 12:14 AM

I'll give it a miss for tomorrow.
Good luck to those playing.

Slanina · 05-28-09, 04:14 AM

Yeah, I'm not betting the system tomorrow. The lines are all around -120. No way am I.

floridagolfer · 05-28-09, 06:26 AM

What's the difference between Thursday and the day a couple of weeks ago when there were only four games on a day and I was crucified for suggesting that day ought to be skipped because the sampling of teams wasn't large enough? Someone needs to make up their mind. No one has suggested that there needs to be a minimum number of games from which to choose. So, is there? Or, if there are only a few games but there's a huge ML favorite of, say, -250, is that sufficient enough?

As for Thursday, on my site two teams opened as co-biggest favorites (Arizona and Tampa Bay) and I'm playing the one that has moved to be the biggest favorite (Arizona).

ploben · 05-28-09, 06:57 AM

I think today will be a hodge-podge of reasons to play one team over another. No real breakout favorite on the ML.

I think I might give a try to take the biggest RL fav giving the run and a half.

swede71 · 05-28-09, 07:41 AM

Hi!

I'm new here, but I have follow this thread and use this system from the beginig of the season and I'm in a nice profit..

Here is what I will do today,Tampa is an early game so I will go for Tampa and when the game is over I will bet on Arizona..

I always use SBR live odds when I look for the opening line

do5000 · 05-28-09, 08:28 AM

sportsinteraction has the chc game at 9.
once its confirmed on covers ill get in on TB.
for an A bet, it looks good (dropped from -120 to -105)

Slanina · 05-28-09, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

What's the difference between Thursday and the day a couple of weeks ago when there were only four games on a day and I was crucified for suggesting that day ought to be skipped because the sampling of teams wasn't large enough? Someone needs to make up their mind. No one has suggested that there needs to be a minimum number of games from which to choose. So, is there? Or, if there are only a few games but there's a huge ML favorite of, say, -250, is that sufficient enough?

As for Thursday, on my site two teams opened as co-biggest favorites (Arizona and Tampa Bay) and I'm playing the one that has moved to be the biggest favorite (Arizona).

It was because Santana was pitching that day. He has been the system play 5x this year. And the ML was high. It wouldve probbaly been the play if there were 15 games going that day. Today is nothing close to that.

Mr. Progression · 05-28-09, 10:16 AM

just checked, cubs are the play

ploben · 05-28-09, 10:18 AM

Looking at the matchups it is a very weird day so I think i am going to play this one a little weird.

Paylaying the two early games -1.5 line (BOS and TB). Risk $10 to win $40.60. Loss will constitute a B bet tomorrow and win will keep the ball rolling.

Little excitment on a Thursday

do5000 · 05-28-09, 10:26 AM

i'm with you on TB, lets hope everybody wins.
gl

floridagolfer · 05-28-09, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

It was because Santana was pitching that day. He has been the system play 5x this year. And the ML was high. It wouldve probbaly been the play if there were 15 games going that day. Today is nothing close to that.

So, what's your dividing line as to what constitutes a number that would have been good enough to play on a full schedule of games and what doesn't? That's OK, you don't need to answer; there's no way to create such a number. Each person has to decide for themself. My point is, we're trying to adhere to a "system" that doesn't appear to have hard and fast rules to cover all kinds of possible situations.

coreygman · 05-28-09, 10:37 AM

Well I still want to play guys, just not sure which one to do, I am going to do some research.....

like some of you said, at least its our first bet of the chase, so will not be that big of a loss if we lose. I do like some of the + lines on the Run Line right now....

AZ is +170
Cubs are +155

coreygman · 05-28-09, 10:43 AM

I am going to go for Tampa on this one the way it looks. We have never got on a AWAY team before, so lets try our luck!

TAM J NIEMANN -R -125 = M/L -1½ +130 = R/L

Risking 30 to win 39

here we go Tampa here we go!

GGPLAYER · 05-28-09, 10:46 AM

Ha, ha. Probably should have passed on this day but I'm taking TB. Already put in my bet about an hour ago. I hope we all win

rogerc · 05-28-09, 11:09 AM

Also going with TB.
Day game so we will know soon.
Roger

jamesrg · 05-28-09, 11:55 AM

I thought the first game of the day started at one o'clock....My bad

I see the Red Sox are +120 on the run line and therefore they would be the play out of all the games that are left

Was Tampa a bigger favorite than that ?