System Integrity?

[coreygman]

Yes, it looks correct, now I use USD instead of units though but I from what you got there you got it right.

1st bet is your started wage, for me would be $30.00 for the WIN/RISK amount (this number will change depending on Juice)

If LOSS

2nd bet would be my first bet loss, plus $15. (I switched from 30 to 15 each bet after first.)

If LOSS

3rd bet would be the total of 1st two bets losses + $15. etc etc etc

This would go this way until a win, or 6 games of the chase.

[coreygman]

damn Mets!

[Jacey]

For Saturday, Phillies is the clear play, Hamels v Martis

[coreygman]

Well looks like Phillies for Saturday

PHI C HAMELS -L -240 -1½ -115

I am taking off to Minneapolis in morning so got to get my bet in tonight...


Risking 104 to win 90

Lets get a big W Phillies!

Game 3 of the chase

[rogerc]

Yep Phi it is RL -115.
Actually I really like this pick.
Comes up on some of my other handicapping methods.
Roger

[GGPLAYER]

Man that was a frustrating game to watch last night. 8th inning bases loaded and D. Wright aka boy wonder strikes out. He is on a serious cold streak (0-5 last night).

Philly is today's play but that guy Martis is a decent pitcher and he already beat Philly once this year. I hate having to lay down the juice on that but I'll stick to the system and hope the Phillies have a HR derby today.

[jamesrg]

Phils up 6-3.......Big night for Howard so far

I can't believe i'm happy about the Phils winning (Mets fan)

[shhhhh22]

Cash it baby.... Way to go Phils!... Looks like Brewers tomorrow for "A" bet!

[ploben]

Damn, I was getting score updates and it was definatly not the pitchers' night

Nice cash boys and girls

[dreamjob]

Phils up 6-3.......Big night for Howard so far

I can't believe i'm happy about the Phils winning (Mets fan)

I am also a Mets fan, but hey make money first be a fan second. I too made a nice cash. Great system.

[Finja]

OK, I spent half the day Saturday reading this entire thread, and I cashed on Philly on Saturday night with the rest of you. However, as the game was going on, crunched some numbers. I don't mean to rain on the parade here, guys, but did anyone else bother to plug in the financials?

According to the backtesting by BettorBob for playing the -1.5 runline this system will hit 925 time in 10 years, and miss 13 times. That averages out to 92.5 hits and 1.3 misses per year. At $10 per unit, if you got even odds on the runline, you betting would go 10-20-40-80-160-320 for a 6-game chase. So a single lost chase would cost you $630. Take that times 1.3, and you lose an average of $819 per year. At the same $10/unit, your 92.5 wins would bring in $925 per year. So at a $10 level, you make just over $100 for the entire season if you can get even odds on every bet on your lost chase. Since you will usually be giving odds, the chances are that those 1.3 losses will actually entirely wipe out your winnings. Even if you employ the strategy of cutting your win amount in half after the first bet, your lost chase at the $10/unit level would be 10-15-30-60-120-240, for a total of $475 if you could get even odds on each bet. Take that times 1.3 for $617.50 in losses. Again, using BettorBob's breakdowns, you would win $10 on 48.4 games per year, and only $5 on 44.1 games per year for a grand total of $704.50 in profits. That's under $100 in profit for the entire season, and again, the odds will probably wipe you out completely.

For the -1 runline the system will hit 925 times and miss 2 times in 10 years, with only one of those misses being an actual “in season” miss. The problem here is, the extra cost of juice for the -1 line (or the cost of hedging your bet with a moneyline bet as ScreaminPain suggested) is going to raise your bankroll requirement by around 1.5 times per bet or more. That 1.5 figure is calculated on a money line of -200 and a run line of +100. Often, the highest money line is much higher than that, so these numbers are probably conservative. But even so, if you could hedge all 6 of your chase bets at that rate, a loss chasing $10 would go 15-37.5-93.75-219.375-548.4375-1371.09375. By the 6th game of a chase, you have bet $2285.16 (or most likely, much more with odds) to chase your $10. Granted, this will only miss once or twice every 10 years, but that one miss will be a MASSIVE loss, wiping out multiple years of winings at once. And on top of that, you will get to the 6 game level once every other season, and 5 games deep about every year. So you need a $2300 bankroll to pull in under a thousand, and you will need to be willing to put it all up on a single bet every other season, and around half of it at once every season. That's a lot of thousand dollar bets to make $925 total per season at the $10 level. Now double or triple (or 10x) those numbers for whatever size units you're betting.

I'm not trying to make anyone here mad. But I do want to make everyone aware of the risks of this system, and point out that it's going to win a VAST majority of the time and look incredible, but when it loses, it will most likely wipe you out.

[coreygman]

Whoo hooo from Minneapolis!

[coreygman]

looks like the brew ha has for me too


MIL Y GALLARDO -R -210 -1½ EV

[rogerc]

Yep, Phils bring cash and add more credibility to the system.
Tomorrow looks like Brewers... opened at -210
RL -105

Go Brewers!!!
Rogerc

[twister]

OK, I spent half the day Saturday reading this entire thread, and I cashed on Philly on Saturday night with the rest of you. However, as the game was going on, crunched some numbers. I don't mean to rain on the parade here, guys, but did anyone else bother to plug in the financials?

According to the backtesting by BettorBob for playing the -1.5 runline this system will hit 925 time in 10 years, and miss 13 times. That averages out to 92.5 hits and 1.3 misses per year. At $10 per unit, if you got even odds on the runline, you betting would go 10-20-40-80-160-320 for a 6-game chase. So a single lost chase would cost you $630. Take that times 1.3, and you lose an average of $819 per year. At the same $10/unit, your 92.5 wins would bring in $925 per year. So at a $10 level, you make just over $100 for the entire season if you can get even odds on every bet on your lost chase. Since you will usually be giving odds, the chances are that those 1.3 losses will actually entirely wipe out your winnings. Even if you employ the strategy of cutting your win amount in half after the first bet, your lost chase at the $10/unit level would be 10-15-30-60-120-240, for a total of $475 if you could get even odds on each bet. Take that times 1.3 for $617.50 in losses. Again, using BettorBob's breakdowns, you would win $10 on 48.4 games per year, and only $5 on 44.1 games per year for a grand total of $704.50 in profits. That's under $100 in profit for the entire season, and again, the odds will probably wipe you out completely.

For the -1 runline the system will hit 925 times and miss 2 times in 10 years, with only one of those misses being an actual “in season” miss. The problem here is, the extra cost of juice for the -1 line (or the cost of hedging your bet with a moneyline bet as ScreaminPain suggested) is going to raise your bankroll requirement by around 1.5 times per bet or more. That 1.5 figure is calculated on a money line of -200 and a run line of +100. Often, the highest money line is much higher than that, so these numbers are probably conservative. But even so, if you could hedge all 6 of your chase bets at that rate, a loss chasing $10 would go 15-37.5-93.75-219.375-548.4375-1371.09375. By the 6th game of a chase, you have bet $2285.16 (or most likely, much more with odds) to chase your $10. Granted, this will only miss once or twice every 10 years, but that one miss will be a MASSIVE loss, wiping out multiple years of winings at once. And on top of that, you will get to the 6 game level once every other season, and 5 games deep about every year. So you need a $2300 bankroll to pull in under a thousand, and you will need to be willing to put it all up on a single bet every other season, and around half of it at once every season. That's a lot of thousand dollar bets to make $925 total per season at the $10 level. Now double or triple (or 10x) those numbers for whatever size units you're betting.

I'm not trying to make anyone here mad. But I do want to make everyone aware of the risks of this system, and point out that it's going to win a VAST majority of the time and look incredible, but when it loses, it will most likely wipe you out.

It is worthless preaching to the blind and stupid.

Everyone in this thread, and everyone in the Morrison System thread have been warned multiple times about chase systems but no one wants to listen. As long as their bankrolls are slowly increasing every week, they don't care. When that inevitable loss comes though, and it definitely will, it will wipeout their entire bankroll.

The worst part is, that by doing a little capping and playing at a place like Matchbook [equivalent to 3c lines after commission], their expected outcome would be much better, and much more profitable, than following this system.

However, some people don't learn. Over the past few years, the Morrison system has failed a multitude of times for the various sports, yet there are still dumb suckers that play it year on year.

But alas, there is one saying that will always remain true... "...a fool and his money, are soon parted."

[coreygman]

MIL Y GALLARDO -R -210 -1½ +110

Line went up to + 110 for me today, lucky I did not place last night

risking 30 to win 33

Go Brewers!

[ScreaminPain]

For the -1 runline the system will hit 925 times and miss 2 times in 10 years, with only one of those misses being an actual “in season” miss. The problem here is, the extra cost of juice for the -1 line (or the cost of hedging your bet with a moneyline bet as ScreaminPain suggested) is going to raise your bankroll requirement by around 1.5 times per bet or more.

I vowed to myself to stay out of this thread somewhere around post #50, but since Finja spent so much effort on his analysis, I need a rebuttle.

Finja, the notion that hedging as stated previously, would need an increase of bankroll is not accurate. Quite honestly, it's the opposite.

During a conventional chase using the RL, any game that loses by a single run is a LOSS and necessitates an increase in wager to recoup. However, hedging to -1RL, a game losing by a single run would be a PUSH, and the following game would be wagered at the same amount.

Overall backroll needed to sustain the "Chase" at a -1RL is far less than you surmise. I do agree with you about the starting figure. I notice some here have been using a starting amount that is unwise. Even at a modest $20 unit, a substantial bankroll is needed in case of a full 6-game chase.....thankfully that hasn't happened yet.

Good Luck on your action...

[Finja]

I vowed to myself to stay out of this thread somewhere around post #50, but since Finja spent so much effort on his analysis, I need a rebuttle.

Finja, the notion that hedging as stated previously, would need an increase of bankroll is not accurate. Quite honestly, it's the opposite.

During a conventional chase using the RL, any game that loses by a single run is a LOSS and necessitates an increase in wager to recoup. However, hedging to -1RL, a game losing by a single run would be a PUSH, and the following game would be wagered at the same amount.

Overall backroll needed to sustain the "Chase" at a -1RL is far less than you surmise. I do agree with you about the starting figure. I notice some here have been using a starting amount that is unwise. Even at a modest $20 unit, a substantial bankroll is needed in case of a full 6-game chase.....thankfully that hasn't happened yet.

Good Luck on your action...

SceaminPain,

No argument that there is no impact when the hedged bet pushes. But when it loses outright, it cost you significantly more to make than the regular -1.5 runline bet. And if you chase it with another hedged bet, it compounds significantly. The single miss example BettorBob found over 10 years, there was 1 push in the middle of 6 outright losses. So that one push wouldn't have affected anything, but those 6 outright losses, if hedged, would have cost a fortune seeing how they were mostly in the mid-200's (thank goodnes the -370 bet was the push). At the $10/unit level, you'd have probably dropped well over $5K chasing those high numbers. That takes a lot of seasons at +$925 to get back. And if you're chasing $30/unit, and you dropped ~$15K over 7 days, are you gonna have the stones to make that $15K bet again every other season to win $30? Because you're gonna have to do just that 6 times in 10 years, according to the numbers...

Again, I'm not looking for a fight - the system will win most of the time. I just hope everybody here is on a cruise (or using their girl's ancient computer) when the losses DO come along, so that we all miss those games. Because if you're playing at that time, it's gonna sting.

Fyi, I could do a more accurate analysis if somebody would post the odds on the -1 lines for the same games that most of us are getting the -1.5 lines on.

Good luck, all!

[Finja]

ScreaminPain,

Are you talking about BETTING a certain unit, or TRYING TO WIN a certain unit? Just to make sure we're on the same page here, let's look at today's play, using coreygman's line of MIL Y GALLARDO -R -210 -1½ +110:

If you're BETTING a $10 unit every time, today's -1.5 runline bet of $10 would win you $11. Using your calculator with ML odds of -210, and RL odds of +110, the same $10 bet when hedged would win you only $6.77. So you lose 38.45% of your winnings by hedging. Thus, $925 in winnings every year becomes $569.34 when hedging. And you don't always get as good of odds as today, so your yearly winnings are probably going to be much less than that. In the 6 game losing streak in 2003, only 1 of the 6 losing games had odds better than today's, and 4 were worse, so chances are, you'll be losing a much higher percentage of your winnings than 38.45%. You would be sure, however, that your chase progression would be exactly 10-20-40-80-160-320, so you know for sure that a lost chase will cost you exactly $630. If a lost chase happens only once every 10 years, you might indeed make money in the long run. It all depends on the odds you can get, and how much they will pull your winnings down. Also, bear in mind that the high cost of juice might mean, for instance, that 3 bets into a chase, down $30 and betting only $40, you won't even win enough to cover your losses. Look at today's play, paying back only 68% of the bet when hedged, and the odds weren't that bad today. So you might only go to 3 game chases ever, and still lose money on the year thanks to the high odds when hedging.

If you are talking about WINNING a $10 unit every time, today's -1.5 runline bet amount would have to be $9.53 to win $10, and again using your calculator, the -1 hedge bet would cost you $14.76 to win the same $10. Your bankroll went up 54.88% on this single bet, and again, today's odds were pretty good. The example I used above where you needed a $2285.16 bankroll to try to win a $10 unit was based on your bankroll only going up 50% per bet – as I said, those numbers were probably pretty conservative. Throw in a couple of high 200 odds, then compound the successive bets in the chase, and that bankroll requirement goes up a lot, extremely quickly. So again, how much are you willing to bet at one time, chasing $10?

And regardless, if you don't hedge, the 1.3 losses per year will most likely completely wipe out any winnings - just plug in the numbers.

Good luck and good bets all – I honestly hope this doesn't catch anyone.

[shhhhh22]

Brewers 5 Reds 2... CASH IT!! One game chase in the books!

[do5000]

nice win today!
on to LAD tomorrow at home to ARI

[coreygman]

Bet is the Dodgers for today


LOS H KURODA -R -180 -1½ +110
Risking 30 to win 33.

[coreygman]

According to the backtesting by BettorBob for playing the -1.5 runline this system will hit 925 time in 10 years, and miss 13 times. That averages out to 92.5 hits and 1.3 misses per year. At $10 per unit, if you got even odds on the runline, you betting would go 10-20-40-80-160-320 for a 6-game chase. So a single lost chase would cost you $630. Take that times 1.3, and you lose an average of $819 per year. At the same $10/unit, your 92.5 wins would bring in $925 per year. So at a $10 level, you make just over $100 for the entire season if you can get even odds on every bet on your lost chase. Since you will usually be giving odds, the chances are that those 1.3 losses will actually entirely wipe out your winnings. Even if you employ the strategy of cutting your win amount in half after the first bet, your lost chase at the $10/unit level would be 10-15-30-60-120-240, for a total of $475 if you could get even odds on each bet. Take that times 1.3 for $617.50 in losses. Again, using BettorBob's breakdowns, you would win $10 on 48.4 games per year, and only $5 on 44.1 games per year for a grand total of $704.50 in profits. That's under $100 in profit for the entire season, and again, the odds will probably wipe you out completely.

First I would like to thank you for taking all the time, to figure out this info.

Now I have a question for ya, from the way it looks, you still have a profit listed there for the whole season. But mentioned depending on Odds, that profit could be gone. I just did a real quick check of odds so far this season. The Run line odds have been + 26 of the times, have been - 22 times and even 2 times. so they odds are playing out in our favor of 28 positive/even to 22 negative. So there is a chance that the profit could even be higher with the more postivite odds then negitive?

Thoughts?

And the positive thing about this system is its still in the +, after it all. (again, we don't have correct run line odds to figure it all out and I understand this)

Another questions I have, is of those 13 losses, how long did the chase go? Was any more then 7? We can find out the longest one, and then we would never have a loss. So maybe we change the system to whatever the longest chase was in the last 10 years? (I know we would have to have a lot bigger bankroll, for going even longer then 6 days)

[do5000]

good questions corey. if the chase never went past 7, its a whole other game. maybe theres a way to change the bets for the 5th and 6th games to recoup half the amount spent. then make it back over the next chase or two. that way you can maintain your bankroll.
even if the chase went further (say to 8 games) maybe the all bets after game 4 could be 1/4 the amount so we gain it all back, but in pieces.

thanks to finja for his work (and warnings). we appreciate the effort and understand youre not trying to ruin it for anybody, just to be cautious. Twister also made some valid points, but he came off as a pompous douchebag, so im guessing he wont get too many replies.

its also good to note that for the -1 RL you dont have to double your bet, you can make the same bet but split it. you will only win half as much, but you can keep the same bankroll.

[Panekkkk]

ScreaminPain,

Are you talking about BETTING a certain unit, or TRYING TO WIN a certain unit? Just to make sure we're on the same page here, let's look at today's play, using coreygman's line of MIL Y GALLARDO -R -210 -1½ +110:

If you're BETTING a $10 unit every time, today's -1.5 runline bet of $10 would win you $11. Using your calculator with ML odds of -210, and RL odds of +110, the same $10 bet when hedged would win you only $6.77. So you lose 38.45% of your winnings by hedging. Thus, $925 in winnings every year becomes $569.34 when hedging. And you don't always get as good of odds as today, so your yearly winnings are probably going to be much less than that. In the 6 game losing streak in 2003, only 1 of the 6 losing games had odds better than today's, and 4 were worse, so chances are, you'll be losing a much higher percentage of your winnings than 38.45%. You would be sure, however, that your chase progression would be exactly 10-20-40-80-160-320, so you know for sure that a lost chase will cost you exactly $630. If a lost chase happens only once every 10 years, you might indeed make money in the long run. It all depends on the odds you can get, and how much they will pull your winnings down. Also, bear in mind that the high cost of juice might mean, for instance, that 3 bets into a chase, down $30 and betting only $40, you won't even win enough to cover your losses. Look at today's play, paying back only 68% of the bet when hedged, and the odds weren't that bad today. So you might only go to 3 game chases ever, and still lose money on the year thanks to the high odds when hedging.

If you are talking about WINNING a $10 unit every time, today's -1.5 runline bet amount would have to be $9.53 to win $10, and again using your calculator, the -1 hedge bet would cost you $14.76 to win the same $10. Your bankroll went up 54.88% on this single bet, and again, today's odds were pretty good. The example I used above where you needed a $2285.16 bankroll to try to win a $10 unit was based on your bankroll only going up 50% per bet – as I said, those numbers were probably pretty conservative. Throw in a couple of high 200 odds, then compound the successive bets in the chase, and that bankroll requirement goes up a lot, extremely quickly. So again, how much are you willing to bet at one time, chasing $10?

And regardless, if you don't hedge, the 1.3 losses per year will most likely completely wipe out any winnings - just plug in the numbers.

Good luck and good bets all – I honestly hope this doesn't catch anyone.

I'm with Finja,

I started this system and after crunching the numbers realized it was too risky. 1 loss will likely negate ALL winnings. The more important issue of course is when the loss will hit. If it hits early, then things are over before they began. So far this year, it seems dandy. Later into the season however, another issue arises. I think there were only 2 +money RL bets in September if I recall correctly (for the biggest ML favourites in 2008)...

Of course, all this hedges on BetterBob's analysis. But, if you noticed, there were only 2 losses all year on the -1RL. The -1RL method however requires a fairly hefty bankroll.

[dolce05]

is the yankees todays play?? -1.5 -120

[shhhhh22]

No Los Angeles Dodgers are the play. Opened at -180 ML

So play is Dodgers -1.5 +120

[dolce05]

thank you

[dolce05]

San Diego -1.5 +130 (opened -200 ml)

[coreygman]

The play is the Padres today, they opened at -200 per covers.com

covers.com/sports/mlb/mlb_lines.aspx

[ploben]

I can't believe the movement on this line today. Peavy has been quoted to say he feels much better and PHI is sending new blood to throw tonight.

Little unsettling.

[coreygman]

Bet placed on the Padres, nice odds today!


SDG J PEAVY -R -175 -1½ +130

Day 2. Risking 45 to win 59.

[coreygman]

I can't believe the movement on this line today. Peavy has been quoted to say he feels much better and PHI is sending new blood to throw tonight.

Little unsettling.

ya I see the yanks are up to -200 now

White Sox, FLA and STL game all dont have lines in my book

[overdose.fR]

even though the SDG is the play according to the system, the line movement is against; let's take for ex. Pinnacle: the line opened at -191, with 60% of the bettors and now the line is at -156 ---- huge RLM!

yesterday it was the same for LAD: the line opened at -200, with 70% of bettors, and then moved to -180

maybe a filter should be included and remove the game on which there is a RLM and tahe the next biggest favourite

regards

[jamesrg]

The site i go to had the Yankees last night (i cashed it) and the Yankees tonight so i'm on them again...

Mabye i'll start going to covers.com to be on the same page with you guys.