System Integrity?

[GGPLAYER]

Holy shit NYY just won 8-6 after being down 5-1! I really hope Hou wins or else I'm going to be feeling pretty stupid. Congrats to any and all who went with NYY....your a winner!

[rogerc]

going with Hou here too.
Roger

[Vincepcion]

Going to the danger zone...the E bet

Gonna be CC and the Yanks most likely

[ploben]

I just have to make an observation here. I am not sure the reasoning behind breaking a tie from the ML by looking at the O/U. All that does is point to the total score in the game. It doesn't determine any one teams performance. The HOU game actually went over, which people based their pick on because it was a higher total. The higher total came in but the bet was lost.

I went with STL tonight because their RL was more of a favorite then HOU (middle afternoon). I think if the ML is a tie, why not break it with whoever has the better RL? That line points to which team will win the game, regaurdless of total runs scored.

Just my 2c.

[shhhhh22]

Hey Guys... Just my thoughts....

I played Yankees today. I didn't post it here, so i know it's in doubt. Thats fine it doesn't matter either way. I had to leave early and knew I wouldn't be back till late today so just rolled with the Yanks...

Now as far as the line being bad because there was a pitching change that is certainly valid. However, this strategy was backtested. SBR still has Yankees opening line at -240. I would venture to say through all the backtesting data we have this situation has occured before where the opening line was based on an errant pitching lineup. I believe if this is to be TRUE SYSTEM STRATEGY; there should be as little thought to go into it as possible. and no matter what changes occur stick with the rule that Biggest Fav opening ML is the play.

I hope I didn't upset anyone, and I truly am sorry for those who lost on Houston. Tomorrow Yanks are the play once again, May those that played the Yanks today get their "A" win tomorrow! And my those who lost out tonight get their "E" win tomorrow!!

BOL to all!

[Bakerdew]

Day two When I booked Cards were my play, paid for me.

[coreygman]

Hey Guys... Just my thoughts....

I played Yankees today. I didn't post it here, so i know it's in doubt. Thats fine it doesn't matter either way. I had to leave early and knew I wouldn't be back till late today so just rolled with the Yanks...

Now as far as the line being bad because there was a pitching change that is certainly valid. However, this strategy was backtested. SBR still has Yankees opening line at -240. I would venture to say through all the backtesting data we have this situation has occured before where the opening line was based on an errant pitching lineup. I believe if this is to be TRUE SYSTEM STRATEGY; there should be as little thought to go into it as possible. and no matter what changes occur stick with the rule that Biggest Fav opening ML is the play.

I hope I didn't upset anyone, and I truly am sorry for those who lost on Houston. Tomorrow Yanks are the play once again, May those that played the Yanks today get their "A" win tomorrow! And my those who lost out tonight get their "E" win tomorrow!!

BOL to all!

good point man!

[GGPLAYER]

[floridagolfer]

Hey Guys... Just my thoughts....

I played Yankees today. I didn't post it here, so i know it's in doubt. Thats fine it doesn't matter either way. I had to leave early and knew I wouldn't be back till late today so just rolled with the Yanks...

Now as far as the line being bad because there was a pitching change that is certainly valid. However, this strategy was backtested. SBR still has Yankees opening line at -240. I would venture to say through all the backtesting data we have this situation has occured before where the opening line was based on an errant pitching lineup. I believe if this is to be TRUE SYSTEM STRATEGY; there should be as little thought to go into it as possible. and no matter what changes occur stick with the rule that Biggest Fav opening ML is the play.

I hope I didn't upset anyone, and I truly am sorry for those who lost on Houston. Tomorrow Yanks are the play once again, May those that played the Yanks today get their "A" win tomorrow! And my those who lost out tonight get their "E" win tomorrow!!

BOL to all!

I understand what you're saying and I agree that there should be as little deviation from the system as possible. In the instance of the Yankees' game on Thursday, however, the opening ML was not an accurate reflection of anything once the change in pitchers was announced, so I understand the reasoning why people would either want to go to another game or skip the day entirely.

[coreygman]

Lets go SPANKYS!


NYY C SABATHIA-L -200 -1½ +110

Day 5 of the fun loving chase for me!

Risking 360 to win 396

[jamieq98]

Is there any particular protocol tonight with the NYY game postponed? Night off?

[BTTNext]

I'm going with STL. BOL.

[corona]

I'm going with STL. BOL.

same. i believe (at least some of) the backtesting of this was done using the 2nd largest favorite if the 1st was postponed...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/166494-system-integrity.html#post1715577

can't go wrong sitting it out though.

[rogerc]

STL here also.

Hope we win tonight so that we can all get back on the same page.
Roger

[corona]

that didnt work out

[BTTNext]

9 runs in the 7th. That was very embarrassing. I think I'm gonna take a breather from the system, wait for a concrete play.

[jcygts6]

Dont worry guys... Boston RL tomarrow

[jcygts6]

or if you want to chase more... take NYY runline too

[coreygman]

Well I did not make the St Louis Bet, thank god! Play for Saturday looks like Boston as they opened at -174

Here is what my book is at currently


BOS J LESTER -L -200 -1½ EV

Risking 360 to win 360

Lets go Red Sox!

[ploben]

Let go SOX

[floridagolfer]

An easy win with the Red Sox. On to Halladay and the Blue Jays on Sunday.

[Vincepcion]

Went to the limit with the "F" bet today...nice work Sox

[jamesrg]

Nice job Lester


System in 8-0 since i started and it hasn't gone past the second game

On to Doc Halladay and the Jays tomorrow.

[shhhhh22]

Nice job Lester


System in 8-0 since i started and it hasn't gone past the second game

On to Doc Halladay and the Jays tomorrow.

Right on!

Farthest I've gone is a "D" bet. and that was early on when I made a judgement call instead of following system. Since then been lookin good!

[coreygman]

good work Sox! Would of been nice to cash one of the ones with the big + bet, but a win is a win and I am happy! $360.00 for me!

[coreygman]

dang this is a big line for Sunday!


TOR R HALLADAY-R -265 -1½ -125

Risking 38 to win 30

[shhhhh22]

dang this is a big line for Sunday!


TOR R HALLADAY-R -265 -1½ -125

wow, what book you using?? only -115 at the greek

[coreygman]

2betez

[shhhhh22]

Alright Toronto! Cash it!! 2 in a row!! WOOT!

[BTTNext]

Has anyone else noticed that when the open ML is -200 and below it's a sure win? I usually use the Hilton for open ML, don't trust any of the offshore bookies.

[rogerc]

Very SOLID wins last 2 days!!
Keep them coming...
RC

[smallbluedonkey]

Has anyone else noticed that when the open ML is -200 and below it's a sure win? I usually use the Hilton for open ML, don't trust any of the offshore bookies.

Yes!!

[jellobiafra]

Has anyone else noticed that when the open ML is -200 and below it's a sure win? I usually use the Hilton for open ML, don't trust any of the offshore bookies.

I think I've seen Jimbo post that he has research showing -175 to -199 money line favorites bet on the run line are solid plays over the long run.

[shhhhh22]

Looks like Padres tomorrow...

[coreygman]

Lets go Padres! Opened at -185 on covers.com


SDG J PEAVY -R -180 -1½ +125

Risking 30 to win 38