System Integrity?

do5000 · 06-08-09, 09:19 AM

a little info:
i messaged bettorbob and he was nice enough to clear up a few things.

first, in his testing (i think on page 9) he goes by opening lines. if there is a tie...... the computer picks a favorite at random. meaning we still dont have a consensus on how to choose between a tie.
but it also means that even though the games were picked at random, the systerm still works well.
so if we decide on a way of choosing, we likely cant do much worse than random.

second, if the fav of the day is rained out, there is NO PLAY that day.

thanks again bob

ploben · 06-08-09, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by do5000

a little info:
i messaged bettorbob and he was nice enough to clear up a few things.

first, in his testing (i think on page 9) he goes by opening lines. if there is a tie...... the computer picks a favorite at random. meaning we still dont have a consensus on how to choose between a tie.
but it also means that even though the games were picked at random, the systerm still works well.
so if we decide on a way of choosing, we likely cant do much worse than random.

second, if the fav of the day is rained out, there is NO PLAY that day.

thanks again bob

I must reiterate my thoughts on tied opening ML teams. We are already looking for the biggest favorite in ML and betting RL. So if the ML is tied it would seem only logical to step to the next decided as biggest RL favorite between the tied teams. I know it's basic but the biggest favorite giving 1.5 runs is obviously favored to win by 2.

If stilled tied then a judgment call needs to be made by the bettor.

Systems are great but blindly following anyone/anything is silly. Homework still needs to be done. It's your money people.

coreygman · 06-08-09, 10:33 AM

Yes good point Ploben, that would be a good 2nd option to look at if the money line is tied. So do we look at the opening Run Line for the 2nd option or the current run line?

I also agree with what do5000 posted about if there is a rainout, then there is no play that day. (which I have been doing so far)

rogerc · 06-08-09, 03:00 PM

Ploben,
I agree with your RL strategy.
Mark me down as one vote for that method.
RC

ploben · 06-08-09, 03:26 PM

I am actually going to take it one step farther. All data presented here about the failure of this system should shake any bettor to the core. Run the numbers yourself and see the cold hard facts.

I have a target $ amount in mind that I would like to profit and then step away from this system. This involves up-ing my chase amount and making smarter bets that might stray a bit from the system.

I actually like the NYY better then SD tonight. I think the Yanks have a more powerful offense and behind Pettitte should give the Yanks a W of 2 or more runs.

I encourage everyone to do your homework when risking your $.

EDIT: The Yanks are 2nd favs in ML and 1st favs in RL today.

swede71 · 06-09-09, 03:56 AM

Nice win with SD

Atlatna today if you use SBR live odds

floridagolfer · 06-09-09, 06:11 AM

At covers.com for Tuesday, the Dodgers and Cleveland both opened at -205 and Atlanta was -200.

do5000 · 06-09-09, 08:40 AM

ESPN has CLE and LAD at -205

MLB Game Odds with Spread, Moneyline, and More - ESPN

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/dailylines

View the ESPN BET MLB Odds on ESPN. Includes opening lines and current spread, moneyline, and totals.

USAtoday has ATL ay -220

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/usatoday/odds.aspx

ploben · 06-09-09, 08:55 AM

And SBR had ATL -220, CLE -214, and LAD -204.

Again, one of these times where you have to look at thr matchups, streaks, current head to head record between the two teams, and RL.

ATL and CLE both have RLs in the -

coreygman · 06-09-09, 01:48 PM

For me I am going to pick between Clev and Atl, since those are the 2 teams that opened the highest and thats the way this system works. I am leaning toward Clev right now. If we go with the highest juice on run line it would be Clev as my book is reading -105 for Clev and even for Atl. Also I have both starting pitchers on my fantasy team, and Cliff Lee has been lights out recently.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-09-09, 01:49 PM

the only System Integrity is the System TheIntegrityKid will have you all going with soon

okay, maybe not really, but as I look further and further into this, i may just come out with something!!

dont hold me to it tho as I just wanted to comment on this to get my total up!! well, and cuz it said Integrity hahahahaha

do5000 · 06-09-09, 01:51 PM

i'm with you corey. my books have CLE as the RL favorite as well.
i'm going to take the indians.

coreygman · 06-09-09, 01:56 PM

BOOKED! Lets go Cleveland!

CLE C LEE -L -215 -1½ -105
Risking 32 to win 30, lets get 4 in a row baby!

ploben · 06-09-09, 01:57 PM

CLE should be able to beat KC tonight. LAD is a very interesting matchup as LAD has been unstoppable at home. Might be a 2 bet day, pending how CLE does. Both teams could put up some runs.

coreygman · 06-09-09, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by ploben

I am actually going to take it one step farther. All data presented here about the failure of this system should shake any bettor to the core. Run the numbers yourself and see the cold hard facts.

I have a target $ amount in mind that I would like to profit and then step away from this system. This involves up-ing my chase amount and making smarter bets that might stray a bit from the system.

I actually like the NYY better then SD tonight. I think the Yanks have a more powerful offense and behind Pettitte should give the Yanks a W of 2 or more runs.

I encourage everyone to do your homework when risking your $.

EDIT: The Yanks are 2nd favs in ML and 1st favs in RL today.

Well we both won last night, but I am still going to stick with the system. I have had many a nights where I would have rather chased somebody else, but had to stick with the system bet. GL to ya, if you stray off the system path!

You should post up your record in your sig like you were before with me. And any other of you that are doing this, lets see your record.

ploben · 06-09-09, 02:27 PM

I took down the record because it wasn't all "system" plays so I figured it was midleading.

Overall Series Record: 26-0 (6 game chase)
Overall Record: 26-26

ploben · 06-09-09, 02:35 PM

If interested:

http://ulccca.bay.livefilestore.com/y1pFReWqR4_tER_G0MUQUX_R2cmZ29s3vz9zpbs_lYsxMWdVkheiHmEMMKuDDSN-ZteLUB7uo9blA71yzW80PJfE-7C0HyPj62k/ChaseData2.xls?download

ploben · 06-09-09, 05:09 PM

I guess I can attach it right on my post too.

Attached Files

ChaseData2.xls (62.5 KB, 280 views)

shhhhh22 · 06-09-09, 05:26 PM

i've been using SBR Odds.... Atlanta looks like clear play to me...

ziptoe · 06-09-09, 05:35 PM

Cleveland!

coreygman · 06-09-09, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by ploben

I took down the record because it wasn't all "system" plays so I figured it was midleading.

Overall Series Record: 26-0 (6 game chase)
Overall Record: 26-26

Close enough!, keep it going again!

ploben · 06-09-09, 09:55 PM

CLE cashed. Also on LAD tonight.

rogerc · 06-10-09, 06:30 AM

Looks like LAD for Wed Night.
RC

do5000 · 06-10-09, 07:03 AM

covers has ATL opening higher.

ploben · 06-10-09, 09:03 AM

ATL is the biggest ML opener but you also have to look at LAD. Again, I think betting both is a good move.

Wait out the ATL game until 9:50 or so and you will be able to gauge whether you need to make a chase bet or an A bet.

floridagolfer · 06-10-09, 10:27 AM

It's Atlanta on my site for Wednesday, trying to tie a season-best four straight wins in the A game.

coreygman · 06-10-09, 12:11 PM

Nice win last night! That was 4 in a row for me.

Lets go for 5 tonight! Its the braves for me.

ATL J JURRJENS -R -230 -1½ +105
Risking 30 to win 32

floridagolfer · 06-10-09, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by coreygman

Nice win last night! That was 4 in a row for me.

Lets go for 5 tonight! Its the braves for me.

ATL J JURRJENS -R -230 -1½ +105
Risking 30 to win 32

Where are you getting Atlanta for +105? Wow. At my site it was -110.

ploben · 06-10-09, 01:11 PM

Bookmaker has them @ +105

shhhhh22 · 06-10-09, 02:34 PM

Greek had them at +100 Lets cash this!

adrian_tman · 06-10-09, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by ploben

I guess I can attach it right on my post too.

Hey I downloaded your excel file and was just running through the process and I was getting a little confused with the winning amounts sometimes your A bets were to win $10 other times it was to win $20. Can you explain please

ploben · 06-10-09, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by adrian_tman

Hey I downloaded your excel file and was just running through the process and I was getting a little confused with the winning amounts sometimes your A bets were to win $10 other times it was to win $20. Can you explain please

I started the season chasing $10 but have now moved to chasing $20.

coreygman · 06-10-09, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Where are you getting Atlanta for +105? Wow. At my site it was -110.

betez

TheApple · 06-11-09, 12:10 AM

If you guys are hitting 50% of these plays (28-28 overall), don't you think it'd be better to chase the biggest dog ML every day? Your chase bets are ridiculously smaller and you are hitting at exactly the same rate (50% = 50%).. I'm not sure how many of the 28 losses were ML cashes, yet RL losses (I would imagine 2-4 of these losses fit that case bringing the difference to something like 56% vs 44%), but it seems like betting the biggest dog every day would be profitable by itself, given the 45-50% hit rate. You wouldn't even have to chase, but if you did, your chase bets are much smaller and would return the same amount of profit in the end.

Anyone with a database should research to see if the biggest ML dog ever exceeded a 6-game chase during 2008. My guess would be no. Either way, if these dogs are hitting at 45% and pay anywhere from +150 to +200, you're going to profit nicely.

corona · 06-11-09, 02:13 AM

atlanta again tomorrow.

Anyone with a database should research to see if the biggest ML dog ever exceeded a 6-game chase during 2008. My guess would be no.

it happened 3 times last year alone.