System Integrity?

paw · 06-19-09, 11:45 PM

I agree on that one Rockies are Red hot...........................

Cubs are the play for sure.Twins was 5 cents behind them I love them also.

However Cubs are the play........................ Good news Indians have one of the worst bullpens in MLB.

coreygman · 06-20-09, 12:17 PM

Looks like the Twins are the play today. Opened at -185 on covers

MIN S BAKER -R -200 -1½ +110

Risk 30 to win 33

pelos879 · 06-20-09, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by coreygman

Looks like the Twins are the play today. Opened at -185 on covers

MIN S BAKER -R -200 -1½ +110

Risk 30 to win 33

What's the deal, are you guys using covers or SBR Odds? If this is a "system" then you guys should have some standards by which to follow.

paw · 06-20-09, 05:05 PM

Can someone Once and for ALL............ Tell us which opening line to use ???

Its my understanding that Bettorbob whom back-tested this system used Covers.com for the results.

So with that being said is it Covers or SBR for Opening lines ???????

Thanks.............

JRS21386 · 06-20-09, 05:16 PM

How is this system working out so far?

Kindred · 06-20-09, 11:05 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

corona · 06-20-09, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by paw

Can someone Once and for ALL............ Tell us which opening line to use ???

i really don't think it matters, as long as each bettor stays consistent. just look at today...the favorite at covers.com and http://www.sbrodds.com/ both lost.

is one book going to report a favorite that wins the rl at a much greater percentage than another book will...over the long run? i really doubt it. it still comes down to it being a 50/50 bet that we hope doesn't lose 7 consecutive times. (or in my case, under 40% for an extended period)

sbrodds says its tied between philly and seattle tomorrow...-185
both opened with equal runline odds at +110 (seattles moved to +135)
philly opened with the higher total (9.5 to 7.5)

games are ~2.5 hours apart...so it might be possible to play both.

coreygman · 06-21-09, 09:54 AM

covers is also tied between the two at -185 and run line juice is both +110

coreygman · 06-21-09, 12:39 PM

I am going with the Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies -169
C Hamels -L -1½ +120

Risking 45 to win 54

corona · 06-21-09, 03:10 PM

fortunately i didnt wake up in time to make that play. so its on to seattle this afternoon.

pelos879 · 06-21-09, 03:12 PM

How do you guys handle situations where 2 teams have the highest opening line?

paw · 06-21-09, 03:28 PM

Flip a coin ..............LOL.

pelos879 · 06-21-09, 05:25 PM

haha some system....

paw · 06-21-09, 06:35 PM

Its was a JOKE.......................

Many ways to determine which team to play whe you have same released lines.

Is the team at home ??? Are they on a winning or losing streak ??? Who is pitching ??? Have they been hitting ball ??? How many runs have they been giving up the last 3 games ???

There are so many ways its crazy.I think everyone has thier own Style.

pelos879 · 06-21-09, 09:42 PM

Isnt the point of a system to avoid judgement calls and not worry about who is pitching or hot/cold streaks?

I didnt lose any money but I am doing my own analysis of the system. Dont mean to sound like a jerk. Just want to get facts straight on the effectiveness of the system.

corona · 06-21-09, 10:26 PM

oakland -150 +140 for monday

coreygman · 06-22-09, 04:17 PM

Yep Oak is the play

OAK T CAHILL -R -155 -1½ +140
Day 3 of the chase. Risking 90 to win 126.

Vincepcion · 06-22-09, 05:22 PM

Fk I missed Paw's comeback which was probably lame. Good to see that the mods cleaned up the garbage, even though I believe I never called anyone names.

Anyway enough of that...GL to the Oakland backers tonight. It's also a JM System play and JM plays have recently hit the "A" games. I'm gonna play both OAK -1.5 and ML, let's cash this.

nickmanning214 · 06-22-09, 06:43 PM

EVEERRYONNEEE is on oakland and the line isn't moving -__-

corona · 06-23-09, 12:18 AM

winner.

tampa bay -163 +125 for tuesday.

coreygman · 06-23-09, 01:05 PM

Yes boys n girls its a Tampa Tuesday!

opened at -160 on covers.com

TA MD PRICE -L -175 -1½ +120

Risking 30 to win 36

corona · 06-23-09, 10:45 PM

rays got smoked.

red sox -180 -120 for wednesday. won 11-3 today.

so it wouldnt surprise me if things flip flop tomorrow. rays as the second biggest fav win the rl, sox as the biggest fav lose su.

coreygman · 06-24-09, 02:35 PM

Lets not hope that is the case corona!

Lets go Red Sox

BOS J LESTER -L -165 -1½ -115
Day 2 of chase

Risking 52 to win 45

corona · 06-25-09, 06:20 AM

winner.

seattle -170 +110 for thursday.

coreygman · 06-25-09, 10:31 AM

Yep Seattle opened at -173 on covers.com

SEA J WASHBURN -L -180 -1½ +110
Risking 30 to win 33

corona · 06-25-09, 07:05 PM

winner. finally putting together a winning trend over this past week.

rangers -200 -110 for friday

coreygman · 06-26-09, 03:02 PM

yep, they opened at -215 on covers.com

TEX K MILLWOOD -R -240 -1½ -115

risking 35 to win 30

floridagolfer · 06-26-09, 04:00 PM

Sure would be nice to get on a little streak of "A" wins.

corona · 06-26-09, 08:00 PM

this silva dude is in a nice funk here. im loving it.

given up 6 runs in 1 and 1/3 innings.

corona · 06-27-09, 09:41 AM

looks like we have baltimore against washington today.

-170 +110

coreygman · 06-27-09, 04:48 PM

wow new layout to the site....

Who would of thought we could be cheering for Bal, when we have been cheering against them all season!

BAL J GUTHRIE -R -180 -1½ even

curious · 06-27-09, 05:25 PM

suggestion to improve 'system' effectiveness

Instead of using the fav laying the most juice, why dont you dudes use the fav that has the best RL record at that line for day/night, home/away?

In other words, take all the big favs, you will have to decide where the dividing line is, call it -150 for sake of argument.

Then go to KillerSports.com and run a query to find the $For and $Against for each of the teams.

You run a query like this:
season=2009 and site=away and line <= -150 and line > -300 and start time < 1800 and team

That query will give you the RL $For and $Against for all the teams when they were playing in the daytime, on the road, as a fav with a line between -150 and -300.

Or you can narrow it down further and put in
season=2009 and site=away and start time < 1800 and team = Yankees and line < low and line >= high

Make low be the current opening line for the Yankees +20 and make high be the current opening line -20. Or you can use +30 and -30, or whatever makes you comfortable.

This way you get a picture of how a team has performed in a given situation with a given line range.

Then you can compare all the big favs and pick the one that has the best $For and $Aggainst on the RL.

Just my 2 cents.

I ran this today and these teams are big favs:
Baltimore Orioles -190 $40 $-50
Pittsburgh Pirates -160 $-155 $135
Milwaukee Brewers -150 $45 $-55
New York Yankees -190 $240 $-250
Texas Rangers -165 $95 $-115

From comparing the $For and the $Against it looks like the Yankees are the best play.

One thing I noticed in looking at this that you get teams that have rarely or never been a huge fav before, like Texas the other night when they were at -220.

There might be a trend on teams that are a big fav at odds that are way off from the biggest odds they have ever had before. Texas won that game.

paw · 06-27-09, 09:06 PM

Looks like its Dodger blue for Sundays game. + 121 rl at pinnacle. Opening line is - 200

coreygman · 06-28-09, 10:59 AM

Nice 4 game winning streak we are on boys!!

Lets go Dodgers...

LOS H KURODA -R -200 -1½ +115
Risking 30 to win 35

coreygman · 06-29-09, 02:33 PM

Looks like we are on FLA today. Opened at -200 on covers.com More like anybody that plays WAS. ha ha

FLA R NOLASCO -R-190 -1½ +115
Day 2 of the chase

Risking 45 to win 52