NFL Survivor Picks Week 1: NFC South Battle Proves Profitable
Sixteen NFL teams will win in Week 1, but it's important to remember that the real survivors were all of us for making it from the Super Bowl until now with no NFL football.
Football is finally back, and our NFL survivor picks for Week 1 focus on teams that are in a great spot to start the regular season with a 1-0 record.
Nine of our top-10 picks are home teams, underscoring the importance of finding any sense of predictability during an often chaotic period of football. Home teams are often the safest NFL predictions for Week 1.
For my favorite picks this week, I've looked at the moneyline odds from our best NFL betting sites for each team and their season-long projected win totals to try to determine which team offers the best value in Week 1.
Week 1 survivor picks: Rankings
(NFL odds for Week 1 via bet365 as of Sept. 3. Rankings from most to least confident.)
| Team | Opponent | Moneyline | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Saints | vs. Panthers | -200 | 66.67 |
| 2. Seahawks | vs. Broncos | -250 | 71.43 |
| 3. Bears | vs. Titans | -185 | 64.91 |
| 4. Chargers | vs. Raiders | -160 | 61.54 |
| 5. Buccaneers | vs. Commanders | -180 | 64.29 |
| 6. Bills | vs. Cardinals | -270 | 72.97 |
| 7. Vikings | at Giants | -125 | 55.56 |
| 8. Bengals | vs. Patriots | -425 | 80.95 |
| 9. Dolphins | vs. Jaguars | -170 | 62.96 |
| 10. Falcons | vs. Steelers | -160 | 61.54 |
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Who I'm picking: Saints (vs. Panthers)
As I said above, I looked at the combination of NFL Week 1 odds and season-long win totals.
The New Orleans Saints' win total this season is set at 7.5, suggesting they aren't expected to finish with a .500 record. Therefore, you're unlikely to have too many clear opportunities to use them in survivor pools throughout the season.
In Week 1, though, they're massive moneyline favorites at home in this divisional tilt against the Carolina Panthers, who profile as one of the worst teams in the league again this season barring a massive sophomore bounce-back by Bryce Young.
Along with the Saints, I'd rank the Seattle Seahawks at home against the Denver Broncos as my 1B choice in Week 1. Both profile as a good option, serving as big favorites in Week 1 with potentially limited chances to back them down the road.
See all of our NFL picks for Week 1 for more help with your survivor picks.
Who I'm fading: Lions (vs. Rams)
I'm fading the Detroit Lions for the same reasons I'm backing the Saints and Seahawks.
Detroit owns a projected win total of 10.5, telling us we should have plenty of opportunities to back it down the road. Additionally, the Lions have a challenging Week 1 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
I don't think the 64.29% implied probability associated with Detroit's -180 moneyline odds accurately represents this game.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, tells us as much with its odds movement. It's moved the Rams from +166 to +158 on the moneyline since Saturday.
It's not a major move, but it's significant enough considering they're the road team and it's only Tuesday.
Finally, I've always leaned toward avoiding prime-time matchups for betting purposes, as they seem to offer an additional level of volatility.
NFL betting odds pages
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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