NFL Upset Picks Week 2: Three Underdogs to Win Outright
Underdogs pulled off just four outright wins across the 16 Week 1 games, including the Cardinals as the biggest dog on the board. My NFL upset picks cashed one plus-money winner last week, and I’m back with three more underdog plays for Week 2.
The point spreads are already getting wider, with six favorites laying at least a touchdown compared to only three last week. With several big dogs on the slate, I’m taking a shot on the Giants while keeping the other two picks a little more conservative.
🏈 NFL upset picks: Week 2
Check out all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 2 and shop the latest NFL odds before placing your bets.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Bengals moneyline (+130 via bet365) vs. Texans | 1 unit |
| Jaguars moneyline (+122 via Caesars) vs. Broncos | 1 unit |
| Giants moneyline (+300 via FanDuel) vs. Rams | 0.5 units |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: +4.02 units
🚨 Best NFL underdogs to bet: Week 2
🎯 Bengals moneyline (+130) vs. Texans
The Texans defense was supposed to be the strength of the team. That’s why it was odd to see a DeMeco Ryans-coached defense allow 409 total yards and surrender the most points it has given up since Week 16 of 2023 (36).
Buffalo had a clear game plan to use Houston’s aggressiveness against it. The Bills’ vertical passing game saw Josh Allen average 12.2 air yards per attempt (his most since 2023). That was a stark contrast from a Bills team that was bottom 10 in aDOT last year.
If any team is perfectly equipped to execute the same game plan against Houston, it’s the Bengals, with arguably the best field stretcher in the game in Ja’Marr Chase.
🔬 SBR Edge: Thriving as an underdog
Joe Burrow is 19-4 ATS in his career when his team closes as an underdog of at least a field goal. That is the best ATS record of over 200 quarterbacks (min. 20 starts) in the Super Bowl era.
🎯 Jaguars moneyline (+122) vs. Broncos
It may have only been a win against the lowly Browns, but what Jacksonville did in its second-largest win (plus-24) in a season opener in team history was still impressive. Not only did the defense not allow a touchdown until garbage time under the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter, but Trevor Lawrence logged his third career game with four or more touchdown passes.
Lawrence is now 14-4 in 18 starts dating back to last season and is 9-0 with a 23-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last nine regular season games. This is a great spot against a Denver team playing on a short week, and one whose offense looked like it had a low ceiling without Sean Payton calling plays.
🎯 Giants moneyline (+300) vs. Rams
In a vacuum I wouldn’t be jumping off the Rams bandwagon after a loss to a division rival that won 12 games last year. But the unknown over how Los Angeles will respond to the extensive travel to and from Australia, combined with the discipline that the Giants played with in their first game under John Harbaugh, makes New York an intriguing underdog play.
Los Angeles’ seven points in Week 1 were its fewest in 75 games started by Matthew Stafford. And even though Myles Garrett has already been ruled out this week, it is worth noting he recorded zero sacks, tackles or quarterback hits in 39 snaps.
The Giants pressured Dak Prescott on 47% of dropbacks in the first half last week, his second-highest pressure rate over the last two seasons. If they get similar pressure against the less mobile Stafford, it could be another long day for the Rams offense.
💵 More Giants vs. Rams picks
Our Gary Pearson also backs the Giants in his Giants vs. Rams early prediction.
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