Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Wednesday, Sept. 16
The first four games of Wednesday’s full 15-game Major League Baseball slate are afternoon affairs, and my best NRFI bets today include two of those games as I try to cash in early.
Carlos Rodon has etched himself in the history books amid an impressive streak of run prevention, and he is the main reason for my top NRFI pick coming from the Yankees vs. Twins matchup. I also add a YRFI wager on the Mariners vs. Angels tilt given much Seattle’s pitching has let it down of late.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 16
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees vs. Twins NRFI (-120 via bet365) | 1u → 0.83u | Carlos Rodon has allowed three or fewer runs in 24 straight starts |
| White Sox vs. Guardians NRFI (-120 via bet365) | 1u → 0.83u | Cleveland is the AL’s most profitable NRFI team |
| Athletics vs. Rays NRFI (-111 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.90u | Nick Martinez has quietly been one of the AL’s best pitchers |
| Mariners vs. Angels YRFI (+104 via FanDuel) | 1u → 1.04u | Seattle’s second-half ERA is the worst in franchise history |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.6 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Yankees vs. Twins (1:40 ET)
- Carlos Rodon (2.94 ERA) vs. Zebby Matthews (4.98 ERA)
- NRFI records: Yankees (77-74) vs. Twins (61-90)
Carlos Rodon has gone 24 consecutive starts with three or fewer runs allowed. That’s tied for the second most among left-handed starting pitchers since 1893. And over that 24-start stretch, he has gone 13-5 with a 2.75 ERA.
I’m also backing Zebby Matthews to match zeros early now that he isn’t facing a divisional opponent. While the Tigers and White Sox tagged Matthews for nine earned runs in his last 7.1 innings, he allowed two earned runs with an 11:2 K:BB ratio in his last two starts against non-divisional rivals (spanning 12.2 innings).
📡 SBR Edge: Close to a milestone
Carlos Rodon is in search of his 100th career win today, while he looks to improve upon his best ERA since 2022.
🔥 More NRFI/YRFI picks today
White Sox vs. Guardians (1 ET)
- Anthony Kay (4.53 ERA) vs. Parker Messick (2.51 ERA)
- NRFI records: White Sox (69-82) vs. Guardians (85-67)
The Guardians entered yesterday having cashed NRFI wagers at a 56% clip, the highest rate for any AL team. They’re in their better NRFI split when facing a southpaw, as they have a 38-14 NRFI record in such matchups.
Cleveland ace Parker Messick leads the AL in lowest opponents’ on-base percentage since the All-Star Break. He is second only to Cam Schlittler in WAR, and his 2.01 ERA since July 4 is the fifth-lowest in the Majors over that span. Meanwhile, Anthony Kay has allowed just three earned runs in 16 innings against the Guardians this season.
Athletics vs. Rays (6:40 ET)
- Brady Basso (3.86 ERA) vs. Nick Martinez (2.92 ERA)
- NRFI records: Athletics (70-81) vs. Rays (80-70)
Tampa Bay began the week having won three straight games and 14 of 20. Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez have paced the rotation with sub-3.00 ERAs all season long, with the latter being a big reason the Rays collectively got a 2.87 ERA from their starting pitching over the aforementioned 20-game span.
Martinez looks to improve upon his minuscule 1.61 ERA and .196 OBA in the first inning this year. But I also expect Athletics southpaw Brady Basso to match zeros early. His last two outings were the only ones this season where he recorded nine or more outs, and he has responded with seven straight scoreless innings and more ground ball outs than fly balls.
Mariners vs. Angels (9:38 ET)
- George Kirby (4.25 ERA) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (4.75 ERA)
- YRFI records: Mariners (83-69) vs. Angels (75-76)
After falling one game short of its first World Series appearance, many predicted Seattle to get over that hump this year while riding the strength of its starting pitching. But that pitching is a weakness with the team on pace for its worst ERA in the second half of a season in franchise history.
George Kirby is on pace for his third straight month with a 4.96 ERA or worse. He ranks in the 18th percentile in xBA and the bottom-third of all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate. He should have trouble pitching a clean first inning, as Zach Neto and Mike Trout have both homered off of him, and own OPSs of 1.000 and .944, respectively, in their head-to-head matchups.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
We're backing the trends in several legs of this parlay, like Tampa Bay and Seattle being two of the most profitable NRFI and YRFI teams in the league, respectively. The value is also too good to pass up with Carlos Rodon toeing the rubber, who is doing things we haven't seen from a left-handed starting pitcher in over 133 years.
💵 Best NRFI parlay today
- Yankees-Twins NRFI
- White Sox-Guardians NRFI
- Athletics-Rays NRFI
- Mariners-Angels YRFI
Best odds: +1203 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 1.2u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 266-441-2 | +45.63 units ✅ | +10.4% ✅ |
| Game picks | 104-83-2 | +13.89 units ✅ | +5.5% ✅ |
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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