MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Tuesday, Sept. 15
The MLB is rolling out a fully-loaded 15-game slate for Tuesday, giving us the maximum number of players to target for my latest home run predictions today. Last night, Kazuma Okamoto found the bleachers, cashing a +480 home run prop, giving us momentum heading into tonight's slate.
My MLB home run picks for tonight begin with Randal Grichuk. The White Sox LF is drawing a good matchup against southpaw Foster Griffin, taking left-handed pitchers yard for 9 of his 13 home runs in 2026. The forecast in Cleveland also calls for wind gusts above 13 mph blowing out, building a strong case for Grichuk to hit a home run for the second time in three contests.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 15
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk (+500 via bet365) | 0.25u β 1.25u | Grichuk has hit 9 of 13 home runs against right-handed pitching, while playing in a ballpark with wind gusts blowing out at 13.8 mph tonight. |
| Yandy Diaz (+600 via bet365) | 0.25u β 1.5u | Diaz has hit 11 of 16 home runs against right-handed pitchers at Tropicana Field. |
| Yordan Alvarez (+310 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 1.02u | Alvarez has recorded 16 of 21 home runs at Daikin Park against right-handed pitching, while rated 100th percentile in xSLG (.640). |
Total wagered: 0.83 units | Max profit: 3.77 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Randal Grichuk (+500)
Progressive Field is not always viewed as a hitter's park. Tonight, that should change, with the forecast calling for 13.8 mph wind gusts blowing out.
Grichuk has been dominant against left-handed pitching in 2026. He's recorded 9 of 13 home runs against southpaws. He's also looking to add his second home run in three appearances tonight.
Foster Griffin ranks in the 27th percentile for barrel percentage allowed (8.7) this year. He's allowed 3 home runs in 4 starts at Progressive Field since being traded to the Guardians.
Go to bet365 to bet on Grichuk's home run prop at +500 odds.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN Unlimited/MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Grichuk Mashing Lefties on the Road
Grichuk has recorded 5 of 6 home runs against left-handed pitchers in away ballparks this season.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+600)
Yandy Diaz has been highly effective as the leadoff hitter in the Rays' lineup this year. Diaz has a great matchup against Jack Perkins tonight, as the right-handed hitter faces a right-handed pitcher who has allowed 4 home runs in his last 4 starts for the Athletics.
In 2026, Diaz has hit 16 of 22 home runs at home in Tropicana Field. The closed environment negates windy conditions, while Diaz has plenty of power at the plate, ranked 88th in hard-hit percentage (48.4) and 75th in xSLG (.445).
Diaz has hit 11 of his 16 home runs at home against right-handed pitching. He's set to snap a five-game homer drought tonight.
Stay on bet365 and bet on Diaz's home run prop at +600 odds.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+310)
The shortest home run prop I'm taking on tonight's board is Yordan Alvarez. The Astros' DH is an absolute monster at the plate, rated in the 100th percentile in xSLG (.640), 98th in barrel percentage (16.0), 99th in avg exit velo (94.2), and 95th in hard-hit percentage (52.9).
Alvarez faces Michael Wacha tonight, who is a right-handed pitcher, boosting Alvarez's appeal as a left-handed slugger. Wacha has surrendered 6 home runs in his last 5 starts for the Royals.
28 of Alvarez's 38 home runs have been against right-handed pitchers this season. 16 of 21 home runs at Daikin Park have also happened against righties.
Oddsmakers have set the line short in terms of home run pricing for Alvarez tonight. BetMGM has the best value, so we'll bet on Alvarez's home run prop at +310 odds.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Randal Grichuk (+500)
- Yandy Diaz (+600)
- Yordan Alvarez (+260)
Best odds: +15020 via bet365 (0.10u -> 15.02u)
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