College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 3 Predictions

My college football ATS picks look to build off of last week’s solid 5-2 record (+2.42 units). Among my four wagers is likely one of the biggest contrarian plays of the week in what looks like a colossal mismatch between two Big Ten opponents, while I also expect a sizable home favorite to cover in a matchup of ranked teams.

I offer my top seven ATS wagers for the Week 3 slate, while I provide more in-depth analysis for my top four plays. It all looks to build off of last week's 5-2 record and plus-2.42 units of profit.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 3 ATS predictions

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 3 based on the latest college football odds.

💰 My best ATS picks for Week 3

🏴‍☠️ Texas Tech -7.5 (-108 via Caesars)

Texas Tech trailed Oregon State in Corvallis with under seven minutes to play in the fourth quarter in a game it was nearly a four-touchdown favorite. Meanwhile, Houston is coming off a 70-point win against Southern while resting starters in the second half, and easily covered the 51.5-point spread. But I’m refusing to overreact to those results, as I have respect for the Corvallis environment, while the Red Raiders were likely caught looking ahead to this top-25 matchup.

Texas Tech was one of the biggest preseason favorites to win its conference, and its defense is likely much better than what it showed last week. The Red Raiders allowed 472 total yards and six plays of 20-plus, after not allowing 400 yards in a game all season a year ago. I also love Texas Tech’s wrinkle with Thomas Castellanos as a change-of-pace quarterback that other teams need to plan for.

⚔️ Rutgers +24.5 (-120 via FanDuel)

If you know me and my betting style by now, I prefer to be a contrarian bettor that uses a team’s negative public perception to my advantage. Right now the gap between Big Ten foes USC and Rutgers seems as big as the Grand Canyon, after Rutgers lost to UMass and Boston College by a combined 23 points. USC also has the advantage of having played an extra game and should be more in rhythm.

Lincoln Riley’s offensive scheme is a little too finesse for my liking, and I trust Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano will find a way to muck the game up and have his team inspired to play physically against the Trojans. This is also a major trap spot for USC, who spend their next three weeks playing teams that are either ranked or were at some point this season (Oregon, Washington, and Penn State).

🐓 South Carolina -3.5 (-115 via FanDuel)

Of all the power-conference teams, no one has overachieved more relative to its SP+ preseason expectations than Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have ridden dual-threat quarterback Kamari Taylor to two convincing wins, including a 25-point road win against Minnesota in a game it opened as underdogs.

All of that is baked into this line, and a second straight road game against South Carolina should prove a much tougher task. Now Taylor won’t even be the most talented quarterback on the field, as LaNorris Sellers’ 11.8 yards per attempt were the fourth-most among SEC quarterbacks with 250-plus snaps in 2025.

South Carolina’s offensive line had a 42% blown block rate and was responsible for Sellers being sacked on 11% of his dropbacks last year. But the unit should protect him better against a Mississippi State front that hasn’t registered more than two sacks in either game this year.

⚔️ UCF -18.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

UCF lost 12-7 to Pittsburgh last week, but I walked away impressed with the Knights defense. Just a week prior, Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel tied a school record with seven touchdown passes, which went to seven different receivers. While poor weather helped, UCF should be encouraged that it held him to a 44.1 QBR and without a passing touchdown.

The Knights suffered a big loss as they will be without quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who suffered a hamstring injury last week. But backup quarterback Keyone Jenkins doesn’t lack experience, as he threw for at least 2,400 yards and 11 touchdowns in two of three seasons with FIU, and has 13 career rushing touchdowns.