Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Tuesday, Sept. 15
Tuesday’s 15-game Major League Baseball slate is loaded with three of the National League’s top four Cy Young Award contenders toeing the rubber, but my best NRFI bets today only include one of those games as oddsmakers have priced those games accordingly steep.
My top NRFI pick comes from the Royals vs. Astros matchup, as Michael Wacha looks to overcome troubling numbers against several Houston sluggers. I also add a YRFI play on the Red Sox vs. Rangers tilt, given Texas’ outstanding numbers against southpaws.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 15
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Royals vs. Astros NRFI (-111 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.90u | Michael Wacha’s success with a 6-1 record against divisional opponents should carry over to this matchup |
| Athletics vs. Rays NRFI (-111 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.90u | Tampa Bay’s starters pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA over a 20-game span |
| Phillies vs. Nationals NRFI (-120 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.83u | Sanchez is facing a much different Nationals lineup than he did in his first couple of starts |
| Red Sox vs. Rangers YRFI (-110 via bet365) | 1u → 0.91u | Texas leads the AL in BABIP and wRC+ against LHP |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.54 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Royals vs. Astros (8:10 p.m. ET)
- Michael Wacha (3.25 ERA) vs. Hunter Brown (3.52 ERA)
- NRFI records: Royals (75-75) vs. Astros (69-81)
Michael Wacha received a hard-luck no-decision in his last start where he pitched six scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks. Prior to that, he had a four-start win streak, and pitched to a 2.51 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 4.7 K:BB ratio in nine games started since the All-Star Break.
We’re getting good value on this wager despite Wacha’s success this season, as he has allowed a combined .306/.351/.481 slash line to Astros hitters. Hunter Brown should match zeros given his 2.12 ERA and .213 OBA in the first inning this season.
📡 SBR Edge: Close to a milestone
Michael Wacha is one win away from recording his fifth straight 10-win season.
🔥 More NRFI/YRFI picks today
Athletics vs. Rays (6:40 ET)
- Jack Perkins (6.53 ERA) vs. Griffin Jax (3.99 ERA)
- NRFI records: Athletics (69-81) vs. Rays (79-70)
Tampa Bay began the week having won three straight games and 14 of 20. And while Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez have paced the rotation with sub-3.00 ERAs all season long, Griffin Jax is a big reason the Rays have collectively gotten a 2.87 ERA from their starting pitching over the aforementioned 20-game span.
Jack Perkins’ numbers are heavily skewed by poor statistics at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. While he should perform better in a much more pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, he also didn’t allow a home run in any of his last three home start, including an outing against the Rays.
Phillies vs. Nationals (6:45 ET)
- Cristopher Sanchez (2.79 ERA) vs. Jackson Kent (6.59 ERA)
- NRFI records: Phillies (71-79) vs. Nationals (77-74)
Cristopher Sanchez has a 4.70 ERA against the division rival Nationals this season, his second highest ERA against any opponent he has faced multiple times. But two of those three starts came early in the year when Washington ranked among the MLB team leaders in runs scored, and James Wood and Luis Garcia Jr. are no longer walking through that door.
Nationals southpaw Jackson Kent hasn’t allowed a home run in 26 at-bats against left-handed batters thus far, so I’m taking a Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper early long ball out of the equation. He has pitched to a respectable .200 OBA in the first inning, and that number climbs to .308 and .381 in the third and fourth innings, respectively.
Red Sox vs. Rangers (8:05 ET)
- Patrick Sandoval (4.58 ERA) vs. Cody Bradford (4.72 ERA)
- YRFI records: Red Sox (77-73) vs. Rangers (88-62)
Boston sends one of its many left-handed starting pitchers to the mound, and that may not mean good things for Patrick Sandoval. Texas leads the American League in BABIP and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, and its fourth-ranked ISO in that split means there’s a good chance we cash this wager with one swing.
Sandoval will have to deal with a red-hot Corey Seager among others. Seager began the week with five home runs and eight RBI in the last 10 games.
Meanwhile, Cody Bradford has allowed a .296 OBA in the first inning, and his 3.86 first inning ERA is due for further regression based on his .400 BABIP in that split.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
In the Royals-Astros matchup, the value is too good to pass up even though Wacha doesn't have the best career numbers against Houston. But we're backing the trends in several other legs of this parlay, like Tampa Bay's dominant starting pitching and Cristopher Sanchez's resume that would be good enough to win the Cy Young Award in most years. In addition, Texas is the third most profitable YRFI in the Majors.
💵 Best NRFI parlay today
- Royals-Astros NRFI
- Athletics-Rays NRFI
- Phillies-Nationals NRFI
- Red Sox-Rangers YRFI
Best odds: +1165 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 1.12u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 264-439-2 | +45.82 units ✅ | +10.5% ✅ |
| Game picks | 102-81-2 | +14.08 units ✅ | +6.0% ✅ |
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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