Braves vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, Sept. 15
Tonight, Martin Perez and the Atlanta Braves take on Kevin Gausman and the Chicago Cubs, as the two NL teams jockey for playoff position. My main Braves vs. Cubs prediction focuses on the Braves' bats getting the better of Gausman for the second time this season.
My MLB picks for first pitch at 7:40 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago include a player prop and home run prediction. The Cubs are -143 betting favorites, and the game will air on TBS and stream on MLB.TV.
⚾ Braves vs. Cubs picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Braves Over 3.5 (-138 via FanDuel) | 2u → 1.45u | Gausman has allowed at least five earned runs in two of his last three starts, and he gave up four to the Braves earlier this season. |
| Michael Harris II Over 1.5 total bases (-105 via FanDuel) | 2u → 1.91u | Harris has six hits in his last two games, and he belted a double off Gausman earlier this season. |
| Matt Olson home run (+320 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.8u | Olson has hit three home runs off Gausman, and Gausman has allowed nine since joining the Cubs. |
Total wagered: 4.25 units | Max profit: 4.16 units
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🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Cubs?
I'm taking the Braves to win this game 6-2, mainly because of the pitching matchup. The Cubs are hitting just .195 off Perez, and he's allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last eight appearances. Meanwhile, Gausman has allowed 24 home runs, tied for the 15th-most in the league, and now faces a top-10 home run-hitting lineup.
Score prediction: Braves 6 Cubs 2
💰 Braves vs. Cubs prediction & best bet
Braves Over 3.5 (-138)
Kevin Gausman has really struggled in two of his last three starts. He's pitched fewer than 5.0 innings in each game, but has still allowed at least five earned runs in each appearance. Additionally, he's given up six home runs in his last three games, and now faces a lineup featuring four batters with at least 21 home runs.
When Gausman faced the Braves earlier this season, he allowed four earned runs, giving up four extra-base hits, including one home run. The Braves should hit well against Gausman again, as they rank fifth in the league in slugging percentage.
📡 SBR Edge: Chicago hasn't been home to Gausman
Since joining the Cubs, Gausman has started seven games, posting a 5.31 ERA.
🔥 Best Braves vs. Cubs player prop bet
Michael Harris II Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
I could see Michael Harris II reaching this total with multiple hits or just one swing of the bat. He's hitting just .204 this month, but he's recorded back-to-back multi-hit games, reaching base four times on Saturday and twice on Monday. He enters tonight's game with 58 extra-base hits, tied for the 22nd-most in the league.
As I've already stated, earlier this season, Gausman gave up four extra-base hits to the Braves. One of those hits was a double by Harris. Gausman has allowed at least six hits and three extra-base hits in two of his last three starts.
💣 Braves vs. Cubs home run prediction
Matt Olson to hit a home run (+320)
Olson has hit three home runs and produced a .316 batting average against Gausman in his career. Olson's 14.7% barrel rate ranks 15th in the league, and he's just one home run shy of 40 entering tonight's game.
Since joining the Cubs, Gausman has allowed nine home runs, including at least one in six of his seven starts with the team. In his last start, he allowed three.
📊 Live Braves vs. Cubs odds
The moneyline opened at Cubs -141, and with 76% of bets backing the Cubs to win, the price has moved to -143. If bettors continue to back the Cubs after their 7-3 win last night, I expect this price to hit at least -150 before the game begins. That means the price for Braves +1.5 should drop closer to -165 or -170, and if it gets there, I'd consider backing them, considering how much Gausman has struggled recently. The total sits at 8.5 at all the major sportsbooks, with little to no movement since opening lines were released.
📈 Braves vs. Cubs betting trends
| Braves | Statistic | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| 88-63 | W-L record | 84-67 |
| 79-72 | Run line record | 72-79 |
| 69-75-7 | O/U record | 83-65-3 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 3.62 | Team ERA | 4.18 |
| .247 | Team batting avg. | .251 |
| .721 | OPS | .771 |
🚑 Braves vs. Cubs injuries
📺 How to watch Braves vs. Cubs
- Date: Tuesday, Sept. 15
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Braves starter: Martin Perez (8-9, 3.08 ERA)
- Cubs starter: Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.60 ERA)
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